Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

AWSum-Combining Classification with Knowledge Aquisition

Many classifiers achieve high levels of accuracy but have limited applicability in real world situations because they do not lead to a greater understanding or insight into the^way features influence the classification. In areas such as health informatics a classifier that clearly identifies the influences on classification can be used to direct research and formulate interventions. This research investigates the practical applications of Automated Weighted Sum, (AWSum), a classifier that provides accuracy comparable to other techniques whilst providing insight into the data. This is achieved by calculating a weight for each feature value that represents its influence on the class value. The merits of this approach in classification and insight are evaluated on a Cystic Fibrosis and Diabetes datasets with positive results.

Active learning methods for remote sensing image classification

In this paper, we propose two active learning algorithms for semiautomatic definition of training samples in remote sensing image classification. Based on predefined heuristics, the classifier ranks the unlabeled pixels and automatically chooses those that are considered the most valuable for its improvement. Once the pixels have been selected, the analyst labels them manually and the process is iterated. Starting with a small and nonoptimal training set, the model itself builds the optimal set of samples which minimizes the classification error. We have applied the proposed algorithms to a variety of remote sensing data, including very high resolution and hyperspectral images, using support vector machines. Experimental results confirm the consistency of the methods. The required number of training samples can be reduced to 10% using the methods proposed, reaching the same level of accuracy as larger data sets. A comparison with a state-of-the-art active learning method, margin sampling, is provided, highlighting advantages of the methods proposed. The effect of spatial resolution and separability of the classes on the quality of the selection of pixels is also discussed.

Minimal data requirements for a continuous monitoring of the quality of care using the DRG classification.

The DRG classification provides a useful tool for the evaluation of hospital care. Indicators such as readmissions and mortality rates adjusted for the hospital Casemix could be adopted in Switzerland at the price of minor additions to the hospital discharge record. The additional information required to build patients histories and to identify the deaths occurring after hospital discharge is detailed.

Intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells: classification, function and clinical implications.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The discovery of a new class of intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells (ipRGCs) revealed their superior role for various nonvisual biological functions, including the pupil light reflex, and circadian photoentrainment. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent works have identified and characterized several anatomically and functionally distinct ipRGC subtypes and have added strong new evidence for the accessory role of ipRGCs in the visual system in humans. SUMMARY: This review summarizes current concepts related to ipRGC morphology, central connections and behavioural functions and highlights recent studies having clinical relevance to ipRGCs. Clinical implications of the melanopsin system are widespread, particularly as related to chronobiology.

The role of climatic tolerances and seed traits in reduced extinction rates of temperate polygonaceae.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most striking and consistent biodiversity patterns across taxonomic groups. We investigate the species richness gradient in the buckwheat family, Polygonaceae, which exhibits a reverse LDG and is, thus, decoupled from dominant gradients of energy and environmental stability that increase toward the tropics and confound mechanistic interpretations. We test competing age and evolutionary diversification hypotheses, which may explain the diversification of this plant family over the past 70 million years. Our analyses show that the age hypothesis, which posits that clade richness is positively correlated with the ecological and evolutionary time since clade origin, fails to explain the richness gradient observed in Polygonaceae. However, an evolutionary diversification hypothesis is highly supported, with diversification rates being 3.5 times higher in temperate clades compared to tropical clades. We demonstrate that differences in rates of speciation, migration, and molecular evolution insufficiently explain the observed patterns of differential diversification rates. We suggest that reduced extinction rates in temperate clades may be associated with adaptive responses to selection, through which seed morphology and climatic tolerances potentially act to minimize risk in temporally variable environments. Further study is needed to understand causal pathways among these traits and factors correlated with latitude.

Une nouvelle Classification des néoptasies intraépithélates vulvaires [A new classification of vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN)]

Vulvar cancer is a rare disease and its screening is depending on the quality and the relevance of our clinical examination. Incidence of vulvar cancer and especially precancerous lesions, vulvar intraepithelial neoplasias (VIN), increased during these last years. The new terminology of vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia will help us to identify high risk groups which could develop a cancer: usual and differentiated VIN. An early diagnosis is essential to propose an adequate treatment. Management is a major point according to the rising incidence of these lesions in younger women. Until we can observe a benefit from the vaccination against human papillomavirus, we must increase the quality of screening by a careful examination of the vulva.

Climatic and biotic upheavals following the end-Permian mass extinction

Recovery from the end-Permian mass extinction is frequently described as delayed(1-3), with complex ecological communities typically not found in the fossil record until the Middle Triassic epoch. However, the taxonomic diversity of a number of marine groups, ranging from ammonoids to benthic foraminifera, peaked rapidly in the Early Triassic(4-10). These variations in biodiversity occur amidst pronounced excursions in the carbon isotope record, which are compatible with episodes of massive CO2 outgassing from the Siberian Large Igneous Province(4,11-13). Here we present a high-resolution Early Triassic temperature record based on the oxygen isotope composition of pristine apatite from fossil conodonts. Our reconstruction shows that the beginning of the Smithian substage of the Early Triassic was marked by a cooler climate, followed by an interval of warmth lasting until the Spathian substage boundary. Cooler conditions resumed in the Spathian. We find the greatest increases in taxonomic diversity during the cooler phases of the early Smithian and early Spathian. In contrast, a period of extreme warmth in the middle and late Smithian was associated with floral ecological change and high faunal taxonomic turnover in the ocean. We suggest that climate upheaval and carbon-cycle perturbations due to volcanic outgassing were important drivers of Early Triassic biotic recovery.

ITMIG consensus statement on the use of the WHO histological classification of thymoma and thymic carcinoma: refined definitions, histological criteria, and reporting.

INTRODUCTION: The 2004 version of the World Health Organization classification subdivides thymic epithelial tumors into A, AB, B1, B2, and B3 (and rare other) thymomas and thymic carcinomas (TC). Due to a morphological continuum between some thymoma subtypes and some morphological overlap between thymomas and TC, a variable proportion of cases may pose problems in classification, contributing to the poor interobserver reproducibility in some studies. METHODS: To overcome this problem, hematoxylin-eosin-stained and immunohistochemically processed sections of prototypic, "borderland," and "combined" thymomas and TC (n = 72) were studied by 18 pathologists at an international consensus slide workshop supported by the International Thymic Malignancy Interest Group. RESULTS: Consensus was achieved on refined criteria for decision making at the A/AB borderland, the distinction between B1, B2, and B3 thymomas and the separation of B3 thymomas from TCs. "Atypical type A thymoma" is tentatively proposed as a new type A thymoma variant. New reporting strategies for tumors with more than one histological pattern are proposed. CONCLUSION: These guidelines can set the stage for reproducibility studies and the design of a clinically meaningful grading system for thymic epithelial tumors.

Classification des leucémies aiguës par les marqueurs de surface et corrélation avec le diagnostic morphologique résultats sur 111 cas

111 patients with acute leukemia, including 29 children, were classified according to the surface markers and cytochemistry of their blasts. The acute leukemias were separated into two majors groups (lymphoid and non-lymphoid) depending on the presence or absence of specific lymphoid markers. On the basis of these criteria a correlation of 94% with the hematological diagnosis was obtained. Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) was divisible into three sub-groups: 11 cases expressing T-cell specific markers were classified as T-ALL and 33 cases expressing the common ALL antigen (CALLA) as c-ALL. 18 of the latter expressed an additional marker, DSA (Daudi surface antigen), splitting c-ALL cases in two subgroups. Cytochemistry of the cases lacking specific surface markers (n = 67) served to diagnose 41 acute myeloid leukemia (AML) cases and 8 monoblastic leukemias. The remaining 18 cases could not be classified. The presence of absence of HLD-DR (Ia) antigens served to subdivide AML into two major subgroups. The prognostic significance of these new diagnostic splits is under active study.

Utility scores associated with the world health organisation drinking risk-level classification in alcohol dependence

BACKGROUND: Extensive research exists estimating the effect hazardous alcohol¦use on morbidity and mortality, but little research quantifies the association between¦alcohol consumption and utility scores in patients with alcohol dependence.¦In the context of comparative research, the World Health Organisation (WHO)¦proposed to categorise the risk for alcohol-related acute and chronic harm according¦to patients' average daily alcohol consumption. OBJECTIVES: To estimate utility¦scores associated with each category of the WHO drinking risk-level classification¦in patients with alcohol dependence (AD). METHODS: We used data from¦CONTROL, an observational cohort study including 143 AD patients from the Alcohol¦Treatment Center at Lausanne University Hospital, followed for 12 months.¦Average daily alcohol consumption was assessed monthly using the Timeline Follow-¦back method and patients were categorised according to the WHO drinking¦risk-level classification: abstinent, low, medium, high and very high. Other measures¦as sociodemographic characteristics and utility scores derived from the EuroQoL¦5-Dimensions questionnaire (EQ-5D) were collected every three months.¦Mixed models for repeated measures were used to estimate mean utility scores¦associated with WHO drinking risk-level categories. RESULTS: A total of 143 patients¦were included and the 12-month follow-up permitting the assessment of¦1318 person-months. At baseline the mean age of the patients was 44.6 (SD 11.8)¦and the majority of patients was male (63.6%). Using repeated measures analysis,¦utility scores decreased with increasing drinking levels, ranging from 0.80 in abstinent¦patients to 0.62 in patients with very high risk drinking level (p_0.0001).¦CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of patients with alcohol dependence undergoing¦specialized care, utility scores estimated from the EQ-5D appeared to substantially¦and consistently vary according to patients' WHO drinking level.

CD34/QBEND10 immunostaining in bone marrow biopsies: an additional parameter for the diagnosis and classification of myelodysplastic syndromes.

CD34/QBEND10 immunostaining has been assessed in 150 bone marrow biopsies (BMB) including 91 myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), 16 MDS-related AML, 25 reactive BMB, and 18 cases where RA could neither be established nor ruled out. All cases were reviewed and classified according to the clinical and morphological FAB criteria. The percentage of CD34-positive (CD34 +) hematopoietic cells and the number of clusters of CD34+ cells in 10 HPF were determined. In most cases the CD34+ cell count was similar to the blast percentage determined morphologically. In RA, however, not only typical blasts but also less immature hemopoietic cells lying morphologically between blasts and promyelocytes were stained with CD34. The CD34+ cell count and cluster values were significantly higher in RA than in BMB with reactive changes (p<0.0001 for both), in RAEB than in RA (p=0.0006 and p=0.0189, respectively), in RAEBt than in RAEB (p=0.0001 and p=0.0038), and in MDS-AML than in RAEBt (p<0.0001 and p=0.0007). Presence of CD34+ cell clusters in RA correlated with increased risk of progression of the disease. We conclude that CD34 immunostaining in BMB is a useful tool for distinguishing RA from other anemias, assessing blast percentage in MDS cases, classifying them according to FAB, and following their evolution.

Improving the prediction of plant species distribution and community composition by adding edaphic to topo-climatic variables

Questions Soil properties have been widely shown to influence plant growth and distribution. However, the degree to which edaphic variables can improve models based on topo-climatic variables is still unclear. In this study, we tested the roles of seven edaphic variables, namely (1) pH; (2) the content of nitrogen and of (3) phosphorus; (4) silt; (5) sand; (6) clay and (7) carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, as predictors of species distribution models in an edaphically heterogeneous landscape. We also tested how the respective influence of these variables in the models is linked to different ecological and functional species characteristics. Location The Western Alps, Switzerland. Methods With four different modelling techniques, we built models for 115 plant species using topo-climatic variables alone and then topo-climatic variables plus each of the seven edaphic variables, one at a time. We evaluated the contribution of each edaphic variable by assessing the change in predictive power of the model. In a second step, we evaluated the importance of the two edaphic variables that yielded the largest increase in predictive power in one final set of models for each species. Third, we explored the change in predictive power and the importance of variables across plant functional groups. Finally, we assessed the influence of the edaphic predictors on the prediction of community composition by stacking the models for all species and comparing the predicted communities with the observed community. Results Among the set of edaphic variables studied, pH and nitrogen content showed the highest contributions to improvement of the predictive power of the models, as well as the predictions of community composition. When considering all topo-climatic and edaphic variables together, pH was the second most important variable after degree-days. The changes in model results caused by edaphic predictors were dependent on species characteristics. The predictions for the species that have a low specific leaf area, and acidophilic preferences, tolerating low soil pH and high humus content, showed the largest improvement by the addition of pH and nitrogen in the model. Conclusions pH was an important predictor variable for explaining species distribution and community composition of the mountain plants considered in our study. pH allowed more precise predictions for acidophilic species. This variable should not be neglected in the construction of species distribution models in areas with contrasting edaphic conditions.

A Novel Volume-Age-KPS (VAK) Glioblastoma Classification Identifies a Prognostic Cognate microRNA-Gene Signature.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have established Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) prognostic and predictive models based on age and Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), while very few studies evaluated the prognostic and predictive significance of preoperative MR-imaging. However, to date, there is no simple preoperative GBM classification that also correlates with a highly prognostic genomic signature. Thus, we present for the first time a biologically relevant, and clinically applicable tumor Volume, patient Age, and KPS (VAK) GBM classification that can easily and non-invasively be determined upon patient admission. METHODS: We quantitatively analyzed the volumes of 78 GBM patient MRIs present in The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA) corresponding to patients in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) with VAK annotation. The variables were then combined using a simple 3-point scoring system to form the VAK classification. A validation set (N = 64) from both the TCGA and Rembrandt databases was used to confirm the classification. Transcription factor and genomic correlations were performed using the gene pattern suite and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis. RESULTS: VAK-A and VAK-B classes showed significant median survival differences in discovery (P = 0.007) and validation sets (P = 0.008). VAK-A is significantly associated with P53 activation, while VAK-B shows significant P53 inhibition. Furthermore, a molecular gene signature comprised of a total of 25 genes and microRNAs was significantly associated with the classes and predicted survival in an independent validation set (P = 0.001). A favorable MGMT promoter methylation status resulted in a 10.5 months additional survival benefit for VAK-A compared to VAK-B patients. CONCLUSIONS: The non-invasively determined VAK classification with its implication of VAK-specific molecular regulatory networks, can serve as a very robust initial prognostic tool, clinical trial selection criteria, and important step toward the refinement of genomics-based personalized therapy for GBM patients.