Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Geochemical evolution of active porphyry copper tailings impoundments : from alkaline deposition towards acidification

J. Smuda: Geochemical evolution of active porphyry copper tailings impoundments Thesis abstract Mine waste is the largest volume of materials handled in the world. The oxidation of sulfidic mine waste may result in the release of acid mine drainage (AMD) rich in heavy metals and arsenic to the environment, one of the major problems the mining industry is facing today. To control and reduce this environmental impact, it is crucial to identify the main geochemical and hydrological processes influencing contaminant liberation, transport, and retention. This thesis presents the results of a geochemical, mineralogical and stable isotope study (δ2H, δ18O, δ34S) from two active porphyry copper tailings impoundments in Mediterranean (Carén tailings impoundment, El Teniente mine, Central Chile) and hyper-arid climate (Talabre tailings impoundment, Chuquicamata, Northern Chile) from the deposition in alkaline environment (pH 10.5) towards acidification after several years of exposure. The major hydrological results were the identification of vertical contaminant and water transport in the uppermost, not water-saturated zone, triggered by capillary rise due to evaporation, and infiltration downwards due to new tailings deposition, and of horizontal transport in the groundwater zone. At the surface of the sedimented tailings, evaporation of pore water led to the precipitation of Na-Ca-Mg sulfates (e.g., gypsum, tenorite), in hyper-arid climate also halite. At the Carén tailings impoundment, renewed deposition in a 4-week interval inhibited a pH decrease below neutral values and the formation of an efflorescent salt crust. At the Talabre tailings impoundment, deposition breaks of several years resulted in the formation of acidic oxidation zones in the timeframe of less than 4 years. This process enabled the transport of liberated Cu, Zn, and Fe via capillary rise to the surface, where these metals precipitated as heavy-metal sulfates (e.g., devilline, krohnkite) and chlorides (eriochalcite, atacamite). Renewed depositing may dissolve efflorescent salts and transport liberated elements towards the groundwater zone. This zone was found to be highly dynamic due to infiltration and mixing with water from different sources, like groundwater, catchment water, and infiltration from superficial waters. There, Cu was found to be partially mobile due to complexation with Cl (in Cl-rich groundwater, Talabre) and dissolved organic matter (in zones with infiltration of catchment water rich in dissolved organic matter, Carén). A laboratory study on the isotopic fractionation of sulfur and oxygen of sulfate in different minerals groups (water-soluble sulfates, low- and high-crystalline Fe(III) oxyhydroxides) contributed to the use of stable isotopes as tracer of geochemical and transport processes for environmental studies. The results highlight that a detailed geochemical, stable isotope and mineralogical study permits the identification of contamination processes and pathways already during the deposition of mine tailings. This knowledge allows the early planning of adequate actions to reduce and control the environmental impact during tailings deposition and after the closing of the impoundment. J. Smuda: Geochemical evolution of active porphyry copper tailings impoundments Résumé de these Les déchets miniers constituent les plus grands volumes de matériel gérés dans le monde. L'oxydation des déchets miniers sulfuriques peut conduire à la libération de drainages miniers acides (DMA) riches en métaux et arsenic dans l'environnement, ce qui est l'un des principaux problèmes de l'industrie minière aujourd'hui. Pour contrôler et réduire ces impacts sur l'environnement, il est crucial d'identifier les principaux processus géochimiques et hydrologiques influençant la libération, le transport et la rétention des contaminants. Cette thèse présente les résultats d'une étude géochimique, minéralogique et des isotopes stables (δ2H, δ18O, δ34S) sur des déchets miniers de 2 sites de dépôt actifs en climat méditerranéen (Dépôt de déchets de Carén, mine de El Teniente, Centre du Chili) et en climat hyper-aride (Dépôt de déchets de Talabre, mine de Chuquicamata, Nord du Chili). L'objectif était d'étudier l'évolution des déchets de la déposition en milieu alcalin (pH = 10.5) vers l'acidification après plusieurs années d'exposition. Le principal résultat hydrologique a été l'identification de 2 types de transport : un transport vertical de l'eau et des contaminants dans la zone non saturée en surface, induit par la montée capillaire due à l'évaporation et par l'infiltration subséquente de la déposition de sédiments frais ; et un transport horizontal dans la zone des eaux souterraines. À la surface des déchets, l'évaporation de l'eau interstitielle conduit à la précipitation de sulfates de Na-Ca-Mg (ex. gypse, ténorite) et halite en climat hyper-aride. Dans le site de Carén, une nouvelle déposition de déchets frais à 4 semaines intervalle a empêché la baise du pH en deçà des valeurs neutres et la formation d'une croûte de sels efflorescentes en surface. Dans le site de Talabre, les fentes de dessiccation des dépôts ont entraîné la formation d'une zone d'oxydation à pH acide en moins de 4 ans. Ce processus a permis la libération et le transport par capillarité de Cu, Zn, Fe vers la surface, où ces éléments précipitent sous forme de sulfates de métaux lourds (ex., dévilline, krohnkite) de chlorures (ex. ériochalcite, atacamite). Une nouvelle déposition de sédiments frais pourrait dissoudre ces sels et les transporter vers la zone des eaux souterraines. Cette dernière zone était très dynamique en raison du mélange d'eaux provenant de différentes sources, comme les eaux souterraines, l'eau de captage et l'infiltration des eaux superficielles. Egalement dans cette zone, le cuivre était partiellement mobile à cause de la formation de complexe avec le chlore (dans les zone riche en Cl, Talabre) et avec la matière organique dissoute (dans les zones où s'infiltre l'eau de captage riche en matière organique, Carén). Une étude en laboratoire sur le fractionnement des isotopes stables de sulfure et d'oxygène des sulfates dans différents groupes de minéraux (sulfates hydrosolubles, sulfures de oxy-hydroxyde de Fe(III) faiblement ou fortement cristallins) a permis d'apporter une contribution à leur utilisation comme traceurs dans l'étude des processus géochimiques et de transport lors d'études environnementales. Les résultats montrent qu'une étude détaillée de la géochimie, des isotopes stables et de la minéralogie permet d'identifier les processus et les voies de contamination déjà pendant la période de dépôt des déchets miniers. Cette connaissance permet de planifier, dès le début de l'exploitation, des mesures adéquates pour réduire et contrôler l'impact sur l'environnement pendant la période de dépôts de déchets miniers et après la fermeture du site.

Une carte des zones de cisaillement ductiles des Alpes Centrales

The main deformation structures due to the Tertiary continental collision in the Western Swiss Alps are ductile shear zones. Four main shear zones can be recognized on the structural map, each characterised by a different shear direction. The first D I shear zone with a X I, SE (transverse) stretching direction has been created during the under-thrusting towards the SE of the European plate under the Adriatic plate. This took place mainly by ductile deformation of the upper part of the European continental basement with the formation of the external massifs basement folds and the Penninic foldnappes. The second D II shear zone (Simplon ductile shear zone) is characterized by a XII stretching, dipping from 0 to 30-degrees to the SW (longitudinal stretching). It is approximately 10 km wide, and crosses the Alpine nappes in an oblique direction. It corresponds to a relative SW transport direction of the upper units together with the Adriatic plate. This dextral transpression zone is also responsible for the stretching parallel to the elongation of the Alpine belt. The third D III shear zone is made of mylonites with a steep stretching direction and corresponds to the hanging wall of the Canavese reverse fault. The D IV shear zones, dextral wrench zones combined with underthrusting movement, are characterised by a W and SW stretching direction. They were formed during and after the S facing backfolding which for instance made the Mischabel fold and the Boggioleto fold. Actually it occupies two narrow areas of more ductile rocks between the Mischabel backfold to the N and the Monte Rosa nappe to the S and allong the Canavese Line. These dextral shear zones represent probably the western continuation of the Tonale Line dextral wrench fault. The D I to IV ductile shear zone were formed under greenschist and amphibolite facies conditions during the Tertiary orogenic metamorphism. Their regional distribution is limited to the metamorphic ductile zone representing the deep part of the Alpine belt, between 10 and 30 km depth. The emplacement and orientation of the shear zones was also directed by the geometry of the boundaries of the European and Adriatic plates. The analysis of the superposed Central Alpine shear zones permits thus to propose a model of the history of the relative convergent and wrench movements which took place between the European and Adriatic plates during the Alpine Tertiary continental collision.

Alps, genes, and chromosomes: their role in the formation of species in the Sorex araneus group (Mammalia, Insectivora), as inferred from two hybrid zones.

During the Pleistocene glaciations, the Alps were an efficient barrier to gene flow between isolated populations, often leading to allopatric speciation. Afterwards, the Alps strongly influenced the post-glacial recolonization of Europe and represent a major suture zone between differentiated populations. Two hybrid zones in the Swiss and French Alps between genetically and chromosomally well-differentiated species-the Valais shrew, Sorex antinorii, and the common shrew, S. araneus-were studied karyotypically and by analyzing the distribution of seven microsatellite loci. In the center of the Haslital hybrid zone the two species coexist over a distance of 900 m. Hybrid karyotypes, among them the most complex known in Sorex, are rare. F-statistics based on microsatellite data revealed a strong heterozygote deficit only in the center of the zone, due to the sympatric distribution of the two species with little hybridization between them. Structuring within the species (both F(IS) and F(ST)) was low. An hierarchical analysis showed a high level of interspecific differentiation. Results were compared with those previously reported in another hybrid zone located at Les Houches in the French Alps. Genetic structuring within and between species was comparable in both hybrid zones, although chromosomal incompatibilities are more important in Haslital, where a linkage block of the race-specific chromosomes should additionally impede gene flow. Evidence for a more restricted gene flow in Haslital comes from the genetically intermediate hybrid karyotypes, whereas in Les Houches, hybrid karyotypes are genetically identical to individuals of the pure karyotypic races. Genic and chromosomal introgression was observed in Les Houches, but not in Haslital. The possible influence of a river, separating the two species at Les Houches, on gene flow is discussed.

Climate and sea-level variations along the northwestern Tethyan margin during the Valanginian C-isotope excursion: Mineralogical evidence from the Vocontian Basin (SE France)

A high resolution mineralogical study (bulk-rock and clay-fraction) was carried out upon the hemipelagic strata of the Angles section (Vocontian Basin, SE France) in which the Valanginian positive C-isotope excursion occurs. To investigate sea-level fluctuations and climate change respectively, a Detrital Index (DI: (phyllosilicates and quartz)/calcite) and a Weathering Index (WI: kaolinite/(illite + chlorite)) were established and compared to second-order sea-level fluctuations. In addition, the mineralogical data were compared with the High Nutrient Index (HNI, based on calcareous nannofossil taxa) data obtained by Duchamp-Alphonse et al. (2007), in order to assess the link between the hydrolysis conditions recorded on the surrounding continents and the trophic conditions inferred for the Vocontian Basin. It appears that the mineralogical distribution along the northwestern Tethyan margin is mainly influenced by sea-level changes during the Early Valanginian (Pertransiens to Stephanophorus ammonite Zones) and by climate variations from the late Early Valanginian to the base of the Hauterivian (top of the Stephanophorus to the Radiatus ammonite Zones). The sea-level fall observed in the Pertransiens ammonite Zone (Early Valanginian) is well expressed by an increase in detrital inputs (an increase in the DI) associated with a more proximal source and a shallower marine environment, whereas the sea-level rise recorded in the Stephanophorus ammonite Zone corresponds to a decrease in detrital influx (a decrease in the DI) as the source becomes more distal and the environment deeper. Interpretation of both DI and WI, indicates that the positive C-isotope excursion (top of the Stephanophorus to the Verrucosum ammonite Zones) is associated with an increase of detrital inputs under a stable, warm and humid climate, probably related to greenhouse conditions, the strongest hydrolysis conditions being reached at the maximum of the positive C-isotope excursion. From the Verrucosum ammonite Zone to the base of the Hauterivian (Radiatus ammonite Zone) climatic conditions evolved from weak hydrolysis conditions and, most likely, a cooler climate (resulting in a decrease in detrital inputs) to a seasonal climate in which more humid seasons alternated with more arid ones. The comparison of the WI to the HNI shows that the nutrification recorded al: the Angles section from the top of the Stephanophorus to the Radiatus ammonite Zones (including the positive C-isotope shift), is associated with climatic changes in the source areas. At that time, increased nutrient inputs were generally triggered by increased weathering processes in the source areas due to acceleration in the hydrological cycle under greenhouse conditions This scenario accords with the widely questioned palaeoenvironmental model proposed by Lini et al., (1992) and suggests that increasing greenhouse conditions are the main factor that drove the palaeoenvironmental changes observed in the hemipelagic realm of the Vocontian Basin, during the Valanginian positive C-isotope shift. This high-resolution mineralogical study highlights short-term climatic changes during the Valanginian, probably associated to rapid changes in the C-cycle. Coeval Massive Parana-Etendeka flood basalt eruptions may explain such rapid perturbations. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating gene flow across hybrid zones: how reliable are microsatellites?

Due to their high polymorphism, microsatellites have become one of the most valued genetic markers in population biology. We review the first two published studies on hybrid zones of the common shrew based on microsatellites. Both reveal surprisingly high interracial gene flow. It can be shown that these are overestimates. Indeed, in classical population genetics models as F-statistics, mutation is neglected. This constitutes an acceptable assumption as long as migration is higher than mutation. However, in hybrid zones where genetic exchanges can be rare, neglecting mutation will lead to strong overestimates of migration when working with microsatellites which display mutation rates up to 10(-3). As there seems to be no straightforward way to correct for this bias, interracial gene flow estimates based on microsatellites should be taken with caution. This problem should however not conceal the enormous potential of microsatellites to unravel the genetics of hybrid zones.

Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Cenomanian-Turonian transition in a shallow water sequence of the Sinai, Egypt

Environmental and depositional changes across the Late Cenomanian oceanic anoxic event (OAE2) in the Sinai, Egypt, are examined based on biostratigraphy, mineralogy, delta(13)C values and phosphorus analyses. Comparison with the Pueblo, Colorado, stratotype section reveals the Whadi El Ghaib section as stratigraphically complete across the late Cenomanian-early Turonian. Foraminifera are dominated by high-stress planktic and benthic assemblages characterized by low diversity, low-oxygen and low-salinity tolerant species, which mark shallow-water oceanic dysoxic conditions during OAE2. Oyster biostromes suggest deposition occurred in less than 50 m depths in low-oxygen, brackish, and nutrient-rich waters. Their demise prior to the peak delta(13)C excursion is likely due to a rising sea-level. Characteristic OAE2 anoxic conditions reached this coastal region only at the end of the delta(13)C plateau in deeper waters near the end of the Cenomanian. Increased phosphorus accumulations before and after the delta(13)C excursion suggest higher oxic conditions and increased detrital input. Bulk-rock and clay mineralogy indicate humid climate conditions, increased continental runoff and a rising sea up to the first delta(13)C peak. Above this interval, a dryer and seasonally well-contrasted climate with intermittently dry conditions prevailed. These results reveal the globally synchronous delta(13)C shift, but delayed effects of OAE2 dependent on water depth.

Development of fluid conduits in the auriferous shear zones of the Hutti Gold Mine, India: evidence for spatially and temporally heterogeneous fluid flow

The gold mineralization of the Hutti Mine is hosted by nine parallel, N - S trending, steeply dipping, 2 - 10 m wide shear zones, that transect Archaean amphibolites. The shear zones were formed after peak metamorphism during retrograde ductile D, shearing in the lower amphibolite facies. They were reactivated in the lower to mid greenschist facies by brittle-ductile D-3 shearing and intense quartz veining. The development of a S-2-S-3 crenulation cleavage facilitates the discrimination between the two deformation events and contemporaneous alteration and gold mineralization. Ductile D, shearing is associated with a pervasively developed distal chlorite - sed cite alteration assemblage in the outer parts of the shear zones and the proximal biotite-plagioclase alteration in the center of the shear zones. D3 is characterized by development of the inner chlorite-K-feldspar alteration, which forms a centimeter-scale alteration halo surrounding the laminated quartz veins and replaces earlier biotite along S-3. The average size of the laminated vein systems is 30-50 m along strike as well as down-dip and 2-6 m in width. Mass balance calculations suggest strong metasomatic changes for the proximal biotite-plagioclase alteration yielding mass and volume increase of ca. 16% and 12%, respectively. The calculated mass and volume changes of the distal chlorite-sericite alteration (ca. 11%, ca. 8%) are lower. The decrease in 6180 values of the whole rock from around 7.5 parts per thousand for the host rocks to 6-7 parts per thousand for the distal chlorite-sericite and the proximal biotite-plagioclase alteration and around 5 parts per thousand for the inner chlorite-K-feldspar alteration suggests hydrothermal alteration during two-stage deformation and fluid flow. The ductile D-2 deformation in the lower amphibolite facies has provided grain scale porosities by microfracturing. The pervasive, steady-state fluid flow resulted in a disseminated style of gold-sulfide mineralization and a penetrative alteration of the host rocks. Alternating ductile and brittle D3 deformation during lower to mid greenschist facies conditions followed the fault-valve process. Ductile creep in the shear zones resulted in a low permeability environment leading to fluid pressure build-up. Strongly episodic fluid advection and mass transfer was controlled by repeated seismic fracturing during the formation of laminated quartz(-gold) veins. The limitation of quartz veins to the extent of earlier shear zones indicate the importance of preexisting anisotropies for fault-valve action and economic gold mineralization. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of tributary relative timing and sequencing in controlling large floods

Hydrograph convolution is a product of tributary inputs from across the watershed. The time-space distribution of precipitation, the biophysical processes that control the conversion of precipitation to runoff and channel flow conveyance processes, are heterogeneous and different areas respond to rainfall in different ways. We take a subwatershed approach to this and account for tributary flow magnitude, relative timing, and sequencing. We hypothesize that as the scale of the watershed increases so we may start to see systematic differences in subwatershed hydrological response. We test this hypothesis for a large flood (T >100 years) in a large watershed in northern England. We undertake a sensitivity analysis of the effects of changing subwatershed hydrological response using a hydraulic model. Delaying upstream tributary peak flow timing to make them asynchronous from downstream subwatersheds reduced flood magnitude. However, significant hydrograph adjustment in any one subwatershed was needed for meaningful reductions in stage downstream, although smaller adjustments in multiple tributaries resulted in comparable impacts. For larger hydrograph adjustments, the effect of changing the timing of two tributaries together was lower than the effect of changing each one separately. For smaller adjustments synergy between two subwatersheds meant the effect of changing them together could be greater than the sum of the parts. Thus, this work shows that while the effects of modifying biophysical catchment properties diminishes with scale due to dilution effects, their impact on relative timing of tributaries may, if applied in the right locations, be an important element of flood management.