Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Variation and evolution of herkogamy in Exochaenium (Gentianaceae): implications for the evolution of distyly.

Backgrounds and Aims The spatial separation of stigmas and anthers (herkogamy) in flowering plants functions to reduce self-pollination and avoid interference between pollen dispersal and receipt. Little is known about the evolutionary relationships among the three main forms of herkogamy - approach, reverse and reciprocal herkogamy (distyly) - or about transitions to and from a non-herkogamous condition. This problem was examined in Exochaenium (Gentianaceae), a genus of African herbs that exhibits considerable variation in floral morphology, including the three forms of herkogamy. Methods Using maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood methods, the evolutionary history of herkogamic and non-herkogamic conditions was reconstructed from a molecular phylogeny of 15 species of Exochaenium and four outgroup taxa, based on three chloroplast regions, the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS1 and 2) and the 5·8S gene. Ancestral character states were determined and the reconstructions were used to evaluate competing models for the origin of reciprocal herkogamy. Key results Reciprocal herkogamy originated once in Exochaenium from an ancestor with approach herkogamy. Reverse herkogamy and the non-herkogamic condition homostyly were derived from heterostyly. Distylous species possessed pendent, slightly zygomorphic flowers, and the single transition to reverse herkogamy was associated with the hawkmoth pollination syndrome. Reductions in flower size characterized three of four independent transitions from reciprocal herkogamy to homostyly. Conclusions The results support Lloyd and Webb's model in which distyly originated from an ancestor with approach herkogamy. They also demonstrate the lability of sex organ deployment and implicate pollinators, or their absence, as playing an important role in driving transitions among herkogamic and non-herkogamic conditions.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

Soil fungal communities of grasslands are environmentally structured at a regional scale in the Alps.

Studying patterns of species distributions along elevation gradients is frequently used to identify the primary factors that determine the distribution, diversity and assembly of species. However, despite their crucial role in ecosystem functioning, our understanding of the distribution of below-ground fungi is still limited, calling for more comprehensive studies of fungal biogeography along environmental gradients at various scales (from regional to global). Here, we investigated the richness of taxa of soil fungi and their phylogenetic diversity across a wide range of grassland types along a 2800 m elevation gradient at a large number of sites (213), stratified across a region of the Western Swiss Alps (700 km(2)). We used 454 pyrosequencing to obtain fungal sequences that were clustered into operational taxonomic units (OTUs). The OTU diversity-area relationship revealed uneven distribution of fungal taxa across the study area (i.e. not all taxa are everywhere) and fine-scale spatial clustering. Fungal richness and phylogenetic diversity were found to be higher in lower temperatures and higher moisture conditions. Climatic and soil characteristics as well as plant community composition were related to OTU alpha, beta and phylogenetic diversity, with distinct fungal lineages suggesting distinct ecological tolerances. Soil fungi, thus, show lineage-specific biogeographic patterns, even at a regional scale, and follow environmental determinism, mediated by interactions with plants.

Patterns of phenotypic variation reveal substantial differentiation in sexual dimorphism of three Psammodromus (Squamata, Lacertidae) species

The Spanish sand racer (Psammodromus hispanicus) has been recently split into three distinct species: P. hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, and P. occidentalis. Some morphological differences have been reported but there is as yet no description allowing unambiguous identification of the three species. Here, we describe differentiation in body measurements, scalation traits, and colour traits as well as in the degree of sexual dimorphism. Our results show that P. edwardsianus can be easily distinguished by the presence of a supralabial scale below the subocular scale, which is absent in the other two species. Psammodromus hispanicus and P. occidentalis can be distinguished by the number of femoral pores, throat scales and ocelli, and the relative width of the anal scale. The degree of sexual size dimorphism and sexual colour dimorphism substantially differs among species, suggesting that different scenarios of sexual and natural selection may exist for each species. Moreover, sexually selected traits (nuptial colouration, ocelli, and femoral pores) significantly differ among species, suggesting that visual and chemical communication may also differ among species. Such differences could prevent reproduction and gene flow at secondary contact zones, potentially reinforcing isolation and speciation within this group of lizards.

Genetic variation near IRS1 associates with reduced adiposity and an impaired metabolic profile.

Genome-wide association studies have identified 32 loci influencing body mass index, but this measure does not distinguish lean from fat mass. To identify adiposity loci, we meta-analyzed associations between ∼2.5 million SNPs and body fat percentage from 36,626 individuals and followed up the 14 most significant (P < 10(-6)) independent loci in 39,576 individuals. We confirmed a previously established adiposity locus in FTO (P = 3 × 10(-26)) and identified two new loci associated with body fat percentage, one near IRS1 (P = 4 × 10(-11)) and one near SPRY2 (P = 3 × 10(-8)). Both loci contain genes with potential links to adipocyte physiology. Notably, the body-fat-decreasing allele near IRS1 is associated with decreased IRS1 expression and with an impaired metabolic profile, including an increased visceral to subcutaneous fat ratio, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, risk of diabetes and coronary artery disease and decreased adiponectin levels. Our findings provide new insights into adiposity and insulin resistance.

Defining the role of common variation in the genomic and biological architecture of adult human height.

Using genome-wide data from 253,288 individuals, we identified 697 variants at genome-wide significance that together explained one-fifth of the heritability for adult height. By testing different numbers of variants in independent studies, we show that the most strongly associated ∼2,000, ∼3,700 and ∼9,500 SNPs explained ∼21%, ∼24% and ∼29% of phenotypic variance. Furthermore, all common variants together captured 60% of heritability. The 697 variants clustered in 423 loci were enriched for genes, pathways and tissue types known to be involved in growth and together implicated genes and pathways not highlighted in earlier efforts, such as signaling by fibroblast growth factors, WNT/β-catenin and chondroitin sulfate-related genes. We identified several genes and pathways not previously connected with human skeletal growth, including mTOR, osteoglycin and binding of hyaluronic acid. Our results indicate a genetic architecture for human height that is characterized by a very large but finite number (thousands) of causal variants.

Copy number variation and chromatin structure

The functional consequences of structural variation in the human genome range from adaptation, to phenotypic variation, to predisposition to diseases. Copy number variation (CNV) was shown to influence the phenotype by modifying, in a somewhat dose-dependent manner, the expression of genes that map within them, as well as that of genes located on their flanks. To assess the possible mechanism(s) behind this neighboring effect, we compared histone modification status of cell lines from patients affected by Williams-Beuren, Williams-Beuren region duplication, Smith-Magenis or DiGeorge Syndrome and control individuals using a high-throughput version of chromatin immuno-precipitation method (ChIP), called ChlP-seq. We monitored monomethylation of lysine K20 on histone H4 and trimethylation of lysine K27 on histone H3, as proxies for open and condensed chromatin, respectively. Consistent with the changes in expression levels observed for multiple genes mapping on the entire length of chromosomes affected by structural variants, we also detected regions with modified histone status between samples, up- and downstream from the critical regions, up to the end of the rearranged chromosome. We also gauged the intrachromosomal interactions of these cell lines utilizing chromosome conformation capture (4C-seq) technique. We observed that a set of genes flanking the Williams-Beuren Syndrome critical region (WBSCR) were often looping together, possibly forming an interacting cluster with each other and the WBSCR. Deletion of the WBSCR disrupts the expression of this group of flanking genes, as well as long-range interactions between them and the rearranged interval. We conclude, that large genomic rearrangements can lead to changes in the state of the chromatin spreading far away from the critical region, thus possibly affecting expression globally and as a result modifying the phenotype of the patients. - Les conséquences fonctionnelles des variations structurelles dans le génome humain sont vastes, allant de l'adaptation, en passant par les variations phénotypiques, aux prédispositions à certaines maladies. Il a été démontré que les variations du nombre de copies (CNV) influencent le phénotype en modifiant, d'une manière plus ou moins dose-dépendante, l'expression des gènes se situant à l'intérieur de ces régions, mais également celle des gènes se trouvant dans les régions flanquantes. Afin d'étudier les mécanismes possibles sous-jacents à cet effet de voisinage, nous avons comparé les états de modification des histones dans des lignées cellulaires dérivées de patients atteints du syndrome de Williams-Beuren, de la duplication de la région Williams-Beuren, du syndrome de Smith-Magenis ou du syndrome de Di- George et d'individus contrôles en utilisant une version haut-débit de la méthode d'immunoprécipitation de la chromatine (ChIP), appelée ChIP-seq. Nous avons suivi la mono-méthylation de la lysine K20 sur l'histone H4 et la tri-méthylation de la lysine K27 sur l'histone H3, marqueurs respectifs de la chromatine ouverte et fermée. En accord avec les changements de niveaux d'expression observés pour de multiples gènes tout le long des chromosomes affectés par les CNVs, nous avons aussi détecté des régions présentant des modifications d'histones entre les échantillons, situées de part et d'autre des régions critiques, jusqu'aux extrémités du chromosome réarrangé. Nous avons aussi évalué les interactions intra-chromosomiques ayant lieu dans ces cellules par l'utilisation de la technique de capture de conformation des chromosomes (4C-seq). Nous avons observé qu'un groupe de gènes flanquants la région critique du syndrome de Williams-Beuren (WBSCR) forment souvent une boucle, constituant un groupe d'interactions privilégiées entre ces gènes et la WBSCR. La délétion de la WBSCR perturbe l'expression de ce groupe de gènes flanquants, mais également les interactions à grande échelle entre eux et la région réarrangée. Nous en concluons que les larges réarrangements génomiques peuvent aboutir à des changements de l'état de la chromatine pouvant s'étendre bien plus loin que la région critique, affectant donc potentiellement l'expression de manière globale et ainsi modifiant le phénotype des patients.

Beyond the insiders' circle: disseminating the results of adolescent health surveys.

Adolescent health surveys, like those for other segments of the population, tend to remain in the hands of researchers, where they can have no real impact on the way critical health issues are dealt with by policy makers or other professionals directly connected to young people in their everyday work. This paper reviews important issues concerning the dissemination of survey results among professionals from various fields. The content, length and wording of the messages should be tailored to the audience one wants to reach as well as the type of channels used for their diffusion. Survey data sets can be used to select priorities for interventions: ad hoc presentations, attractive summaries and brochures, or even films expressing young peoples' opinions have been used by European public health professionals to make data sets usable in various local, regional and national contexts. CONCLUSION: The impact of these diffusion strategies is, however, difficult to assess and needs to be refined. The adequate delivery of survey findings as well as advocacy and lobbying activities require specific skills which can be endorsed by specialized professionals. Ultimately, it is the researchers' responsibility to ensure that such tasks are effectively performed.

Latitude gradients in melanoma incidence and mortality in the non-Maori population of New Zealand

The variation with latitude of incidence and mortality for cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) in the non-Maori population of New Zealand was assessed. For those aged 20 to 74 years, the effects of age, time period, birth-cohort, gender, and region (latitude), and some interactions between them were evaluated by log-linear regression methods. Increasing age-standardized incidence and mortality rates with increasing proximity to the equator were found for men and women. These latitude gradients were greater for males than females. The relative risk of melanoma in the most southern part of New Zealand (latitude 44 degrees S) compared with the most northern region (latitude 36 degrees S) was 0.63 (95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 0.60-0.67) for incidence and 0.76 (CI = 0.68-0.86) for mortality, both genders combined. The mean percentage change in CMM rates per degree of latitude for males was greater than those reported in other published studies. Differences between men and women in melanoma risk with latitude suggest that regional sun-behavior patterns or other risk factors may contribute to the latitude gradient observed.

Coordinated effects of sequence variation on DNA binding, chromatin structure, and transcription.

DNA sequence variation has been associated with quantitative changes in molecular phenotypes such as gene expression, but its impact on chromatin states is poorly characterized. To understand the interplay between chromatin and genetic control of gene regulation, we quantified allelic variability in transcription factor binding, histone modifications, and gene expression within humans. We found abundant allelic specificity in chromatin and extensive local, short-range, and long-range allelic coordination among the studied molecular phenotypes. We observed genetic influence on most of these phenotypes, with histone modifications exhibiting strong context-dependent behavior. Our results implicate transcription factors as primary mediators of sequence-specific regulation of gene expression programs, with histone modifications frequently reflecting the primary regulatory event.