Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Transcranial Doppler ultrasound in the acute phase of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Angiographic studies suggest that acute vasospasm within 48 h of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) predicts symptomatic vasospasm. However, the value of transcranial Doppler within 48 h of SAH is unknown. METHODS: We analyzed 199 patients who had at least 1 middle cerebral artery (MCA) transcranial Doppler examination within 48 h of SAH onset. Abnormal MCA mean blood flow velocity (mBFV) was defined as >90 cm/s. Delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) was defined as clinical deterioration or radiological evidence of infarction due to vasospasm. RESULTS: Seventy-six patients (38%) had an elevation of MCA mBFV >90 cm/s within 48 h of SAH onset. The predictors of elevated mBFV included younger age (OR = 0.97 per year of age, p = 0.002), admission angiographic vasospasm (OR = 5.4, p = 0.009) and elevated white blood cell count (OR = 1.1 per 1,000 white blood cells, p = 0.003). Patients with elevated mBFV were more likely to experience a 10 cm/s fall in velocity at the first follow-up than those with normal baseline velocities (24 vs. 10%, p < 0.01), suggestive of resolving spasm. DCI developed in 19% of the patients. An elevated admission mBFV >90 cm/s during the first 48 h (adjusted OR = 2.7, p = 0.007) and a poor clinical grade (Hunt-Hess score 4 or 5, OR = 3.2, p = 0.002) were associated with a significant increase in the risk of DCI. CONCLUSION: Early elevations of mBFV correlate with acute angiographic vasospasm and are associated with a significantly increased risk of DCI. Transcranial Doppler ultrasound may be an early useful tool to identify patients at higher risk to develop DCI after SAH.

Diffusion of influenza during the winter of 1889-90 in Switzerland

The influenza of the winter of 1889-90 was one of the first epidemics to spread all over the world. At the time, several people hypothesized that the railway was one of the main vectors of diffusion of this influenza. This hypothesis was defended in Switzerland especially by Schmid, Chief of the Swiss Office of Health, who collected an impressive body of material about the spread of the epidemic in that country. These data on influenza combined with data about the structure of the railway are used in this paper in order to test the hypothesis of a mixed diffusion process, first between communes interconnected by the railway, and secondly, between those communes and neighbouring communes. An event history analysis model taking into account diffusion effects is proposed and estimated. Results show that the hypothesis is supported if the railway network in Switzerland is not taken as a whole but if a distinction between railway companies is made.

Rationale and design of a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group study of terutroban 30 mg/day versus aspirin 100 mg/day in stroke patients: the prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events of ischemic origin with terutroban in patients with a history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (PERFORM) study.

BACKGROUND: Ischemic stroke is the leading cause of mortality worldwide and a major contributor to neurological disability and dementia. Terutroban is a specific TP receptor antagonist with antithrombotic, antivasoconstrictive, and antiatherosclerotic properties, which may be of interest for the secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. This article describes the rationale and design of the Prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular Events of ischemic origin with teRutroban in patients with a history oF ischemic strOke or tRansient ischeMic Attack (PERFORM) Study, which aims to demonstrate the superiority of the efficacy of terutroban versus aspirin in secondary prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events. METHODS AND RESULTS: The PERFORM Study is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group study being carried out in 802 centers in 46 countries. The study population includes patients aged > or =55 years, having suffered an ischemic stroke (< or =3 months) or a transient ischemic attack (< or =8 days). Participants are randomly allocated to terutroban (30 mg/day) or aspirin (100 mg/day). The primary efficacy endpoint is a composite of ischemic stroke (fatal or nonfatal), myocardial infarction (fatal or nonfatal), or other vascular death (excluding hemorrhagic death of any origin). Safety is being evaluated by assessing hemorrhagic events. Follow-up is expected to last for 2-4 years. Assuming a relative risk reduction of 13%, the expected number of primary events is 2,340. To obtain statistical power of 90%, this requires inclusion of at least 18,000 patients in this event-driven trial. The first patient was randomized in February 2006. CONCLUSIONS: The PERFORM Study will explore the benefits and safety of terutroban in secondary cardiovascular prevention after a cerebral ischemic event.

Does a mandatory telemedicine call prior to visiting a physician reduce costs or simply attract good risks?

This paper aims to estimate empirically the efficiency of a Swiss telemedicine service introduced in 2003. We used claims' data gathered by a major Swiss health insurer, over a period of 6 years and involving 160 000 insured adults. In Switzerland, health insurance is mandatory, but everyone has the option of choosing between a managed care plan and a fee-for-service plan. This paper focuses on a conventional fee-for-service plan including a mandatory access to a telemedicine service; the insured are obliged to phone this medical call centre before visiting a physician. This type of plan generates much lower average health expenditures than a conventional insurance plan. Reasons for this may include selection, incentive effects or efficiency. In our sample, about 90% of the difference in health expenditure can be explained by selection and incentive effects. The remaining 10% of savings due to the efficiency of the telemedicine service amount to about SFr 150 per year per insured, of which approximately 60% is saved by the insurer and 40% by the insured. Although the efficiency effect is greater than the cost of the plan, the big winners are the insured who not only save monetary and non-monetary costs but also benefit from reduced premiums. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors: an analysis including over 230 000 participants in 15 countries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a large set of population-based studies. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 24 population-based studies from 15 countries, with a total sample size of 237 979 subjects. CVRFs included Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist circumference; systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure; total, high (HDL) and low (LDL) density lipoprotein cholesterol; triglycerides and glucose levels. Within each study, all data were adjusted for age, gender and current smoking. For blood pressure, lipids and glucose levels, further adjustments on BMI and drug treatment were performed. RESULTS: In the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, CVRFs levels tended to be higher in winter and lower in summer months. These patterns were observed for most studies. In the Northern Hemisphere, the estimated seasonal variations were 0.26 kg/m(2) for BMI, 0.6 cm for waist circumference, 2.9 mm Hg for SBP, 1.4 mm Hg for DBP, 0.02 mmol/L for triglycerides, 0.10 mmol/L for total cholesterol, 0.01 mmol/L for HDL cholesterol, 0.11 mmol/L for LDL cholesterol, and 0.07 mmol/L for glycaemia. Similar results were obtained when the analysis was restricted to studies collecting fasting blood samples. Similar seasonal variations were found for most CVRFs in the Southern Hemisphere, with the exception of waist circumference, HDL, and LDL cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: CVRFs show a seasonal pattern characterised by higher levels in winter, and lower levels in summer. This pattern could contribute to the seasonality of CV mortality.

Physical interaction between bacterial heat shock protein (Hsp) 90 and Hsp70 chaperones mediates their cooperative action to refold denatured proteins.

In eukaryotes, heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) is an essential ATP-dependent molecular chaperone that associates with numerous client proteins. HtpG, a prokaryotic homolog of Hsp90, is essential for thermotolerance in cyanobacteria, and in vitro it suppresses the aggregation of denatured proteins efficiently. Understanding how the non-native client proteins bound to HtpG refold is of central importance to comprehend the essential role of HtpG under stress. Here, we demonstrate by yeast two-hybrid method, immunoprecipitation assays, and surface plasmon resonance techniques that HtpG physically interacts with DnaJ2 and DnaK2. DnaJ2, which belongs to the type II J-protein family, bound DnaK2 or HtpG with submicromolar affinity, and HtpG bound DnaK2 with micromolar affinity. Not only DnaJ2 but also HtpG enhanced the ATP hydrolysis by DnaK2. Although assisted by the DnaK2 chaperone system, HtpG enhanced native refolding of urea-denatured lactate dehydrogenase and heat-denatured glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase. HtpG did not substitute for DnaJ2 or GrpE in the DnaK2-assisted refolding of the denatured substrates. The heat-denatured malate dehydrogenase that did not refold by the assistance of the DnaK2 chaperone system alone was trapped by HtpG first and then transferred to DnaK2 where it refolded. Dissociation of substrates from HtpG was either ATP-dependent or -independent depending on the substrate, indicating the presence of two mechanisms of cooperative action between the HtpG and the DnaK2 chaperone system.

Impact des maladies rhumatismales sur la population âgée en Suisse et sa consommation de soins

Les maladies rhumatismales sont fréquemment observées chez les personnes âgées et ont un impact considérable sur la qualité de vie des personnes en souffrant. Peu d'études suisses sur la situation épidémiologique et sur l'impact de ce type de maladies sur la consommation des services de santé existent. Cette thèse a pour but d'étudier les connaissances actuelles à partir de la littérature suisse et étrangère et d'établir un bilan en Suisse au moyen d'une enquête de population effectuée en 1997. Une revue systématique de littérature a été effectuée. En dépit d'une grande variété des approches méthodologiques rendant délicates les comparaisons géographiques et temporelles, la prévalence des maladies rhumatismales chez les personnes de 65 ans et plus semble être homogène entre pays et stable temporellement. particulièrement dès 1980. Celle-ci est élevée et augmente rapidement avec le très grand âge. De plus, les femmes sont plus fréquemment atteintes que les hommes. Notre revue montre que le recours aux soins ambulatoires (médecins, chiropraticiens, traitements ambulatoires des hôpitaux) lié aux maladies rhumatismales est important. L'impact de ces maladies sur les hospitalisations est, par contre, moins clairement établi. Les nouvelles générations de personnes en souffrant semblent avoir plus recours aux services de santé que les précédentes. Ces maladies sont aussi à l'origine d'une forte consommation d'anti-inflammatoires non-stéroïdiens avec comme conséquence une multitude de complications. En dépit de son efficacité et de son utilité, le recours à l'arthroplastie est sous- utilisé. Notre analyse se base sur une enquête réalisée auprès d'un échantillon représentatif des individus âgés de 15 ans et plus résidant de manière permanente en Suisse en 1997 : la prévalence des maladies rhumatismales en Suisse s'élève à 41 % chez les personnes âgées de 65 ans et plus, dont 48 % chez les femmes et 31 % chez les hommes. Ces prévalences sont inférieures à celles relevées dans la littérature probablement en raison de notre définition relativement restrictive des maladies rhumatismales. Ces dernières augmentent de 50 % le nombre attendu de consultations chez un médecin ou un chiropraticien et de 30 % le nombre attendu d'hospitalisations. Les personnes souffrantes ont. en outre, une probabilité de recours aux services de Soins à domicile 1,7 fois plus élevé que les autres. Aucun impact sur le nombre de traitements ambulatoires en milieu hospitalier n'a été trouvé. Nos résultats sont comparables à ceux relevés dans la littérature internationale et suisse, sauf pour les traitements ambulatoires des hôpitaux. En 1990, sur les 983'400 personnes de 65 ans et plus (recensement fédéral de la population de 1990), 403'200 personnes souffraient de maladies rhumatismales. Quelque 5'334'900 consultations chez un médecin ou un chiropraticien, 4'959'300 consultations chez un médecin et 216'800 hospitalisations étaient imputables aux personnes de 65 ans et plus toutes causes de consultations confondues, dont 1'008'000 consultations chez un médecin/chiropraticien, 927'300 chez un médecin et 98'500 hospitalisations imputables aux maladies rhumatismales. Selon ie scénario (( tendance )) des projections démographiques publiées par l'Office Fédéral de la Statistique. d'ici 2040, le nombre de personnes souffrant de maladies rhumatismales en Suisse risque d'augmenter de 80 % (en supposant que la prévalence reste stable), affectant 726'500 sur 1'772'000 personnes de 65 ans et plus. Cette augmentation est la conséquence de l'accroissement prévu de la population de 65 ans et plus dans la population générale. Le nombre global de consultatiordhospitalisations risque d'augmenter dans les mêmes proportions si le recours aux services de santé reste stable. En effet. en 2040, quelque 9'613'100 consultations chez un médecinichiropraticien, 8'936'200 consultations chez un médecin et 390'700 hospitalisations pourraient être imputables aux personnes de 65 ans et plus. dont 1'8 16'300 consultations chez un médecin/chiropraticien, 1'67 1'000 consultations chez un médecin et 1 90'600 hospitalisations en raison de maladies rhumatismales. Une légère diminution du nombre de personnes atteintes de maladies rhumatismales. ainsi que du recours aux services de santé engendré par ces maladies. est attendue dès 3040. Le nombre de personnes souffrant de maladies rhumatismales et le nombre de consultations/ hospitalisations associées risquant d'augmenter de façon considérable, il est nécessaire de freiner cette progression. Des mesures préventives primaires, secondaires ou tertiaires peuvent diminuer la prévalence des maladies rhumatismales et l'impact de celles-ci sur la consommation des services de santé.<br/><br/>Rheumatic diseases are frequently observed in elderly people and have an important impact on tlieir life qurlity. There are fe1.v Swiss stuciies on the epiciemio!ogica! situttien and on the impact of such diseases on the use of health services. This thesis aims at studying the current knowledge based on Swiss and international literature and at establishing the situation in Switzerland from a population survey conducted in 1997. A systeinatic literature review lias been carried out. Despite a large range of methods making a comparisoii diffcult, the prevalence of rheumatic diseases seems to be homogeneous in different countries and stable. especially since 1980. It is high and increases rapidly with age. Furthermore, \niorneil suffer more frequently thaii men. Our review shows that the use of ambulatory care linked to rheumatic diseases is important. On the contrary, the impact of such diseases on hospitalization is less clearly established. New generations seem to consult more. Rheumatic diseases are also at the origin of a strong consumptioii of non-steroidal anti- inflammatory drugs \vitIl potential severe consequences. Despite its effectiveness and efficiency, arthroplasty is underused. Our analysis is based 011 a survey of Swiss permanent residents aged 15 or more in 1997. Based on Our analysis, the prevalence of rheumatic diseases in Switzerland is 41 % for elderly people (48 96 for women and 31 % for men). Theses prevalences are smaller than those found in the literature because of our relatively strict definition of rheumatic diseases. The latter diseases increase of about 50 o/o the expected number of consultations (chiropractor included or not) and of about 30 960 the expected number of hospitalizations. The affected persons have a probability of home care use 1.7 times higlier than the others. No impact on the number of outpatient care provided by hospitals has been found. Our results are comparable to those found in the international and Swiss literature, except for hospital outpatient care. In 1990, of 983,400 perçons aged 65 and older, 403,200 persons suffered from rheumatic diseases. 5,334,900 consultations by a physician or a chiropractor, 4,959,300 consultations by a physician and 2 16,800 hospitalizations were attributed to the elderly whatever, the reason of consultation, of which 1,008,000 consultations by a physicianlchiropractor, 927,300 by a physician, and 98,500 hospitalizations are due to rheumatic diseases. According to the "tendance" scenario of demographic projections published by the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics, until 2040 the number of persons suffering from rheumatic diseases will increase of 80 % if the prevalence stays stable, affecting 736,500 of 1,772,000 perçons of 65 and older. This increase is due to the increase of the percentage of persons 65 and older in the population. The global number of consultationshospitalizations will increase similarly if the use of health services stays stable. In 2040, 9,613,l 00 consultations by a physiciaidchiropractor, 8,936,200 Consultations by a physician and 390,700 hospitalizations could be attributed to the persons aged 65 and older, of which 1,816,300 consultations by a physician, 1,671,000 consultations by a physician/chiropractor and 109,600 hospitalizations will be due to the rheumatic diseases. However a small decrease of the number of affected perçons and of the subsequent use of health services is expected after 2040. The number of affected elderly people and the volume of conçultations/hospitalizations are expected to increase and it ir necessx-y to slow down this progression. Preventive interventions, primary, secondary or tertiary, can decrease the prevalence of rheumatic diseases and the impaci on the consumption of health services.

Increasing prehospital emergency medical service interventions for nursing home residents.

QUESTION: In the ageing European population, the proportion of interventions by the emergency medical services (EMS) for elderly patients is increasing, but little is known about the recent trend of EMS interventions in nursing homes. The aim of this analysis was to describe the evolution of the incidence of requests for prehospital EMS interventions for nursing home residents aged 65 years and over between 2004 and 2013. METHODS: A prospective population-based register of routinely collected data for each EMS intervention in the Canton of Vaud. Linear time trends of incidence of requests to the EMS in nursing homes were calculated and stratified by age categories. RESULTS: The number of ambulance interventions in nursing homes for people aged 65 years and over (65+) increased by 68.9% (1124‒1898) between 2004 and 2013. A significant linear increase of the annual incidence of requests to EMS per 1,000 nursing home residents was found for people aged 65-79 (10.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.2-14.2), 80-89 (16.5, 95% CI 14.0-19.0) and over 90 (12.1, 95% CI 5.8-18.4). EMS interventions in nursing home residents who required an emergency physician increased during the same period by 205.6% (from 106 to 324), representing an increase from 2% to 7% of all emergency physician interventions in the Canton. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirmed an important increase in the incidence of EMS interventions in nursing homes during the last decade, far exceeding the actual increase of the nursing home population during the same period. This evolution represents an important opportunity to reconsider the EMS missions in the context of an ageing society.

The TREAT-NMD DMD Global Database: Analysis of More than 7,000 Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Mutations.

Analyzing the type and frequency of patient-specific mutations that give rise to Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is an invaluable tool for diagnostics, basic scientific research, trial planning, and improved clinical care. Locus-specific databases allow for the collection, organization, storage, and analysis of genetic variants of disease. Here, we describe the development and analysis of the TREAT-NMD DMD Global database (http://umd.be/TREAT_DMD/). We analyzed genetic data for 7,149 DMD mutations held within the database. A total of 5,682 large mutations were observed (80% of total mutations), of which 4,894 (86%) were deletions (1 exon or larger) and 784 (14%) were duplications (1 exon or larger). There were 1,445 small mutations (smaller than 1 exon, 20% of all mutations), of which 358 (25%) were small deletions and 132 (9%) small insertions and 199 (14%) affected the splice sites. Point mutations totalled 756 (52% of small mutations) with 726 (50%) nonsense mutations and 30 (2%) missense mutations. Finally, 22 (0.3%) mid-intronic mutations were observed. In addition, mutations were identified within the database that would potentially benefit from novel genetic therapies for DMD including stop codon read-through therapies (10% of total mutations) and exon skipping therapy (80% of deletions and 55% of total mutations).

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015 : does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: A total of 1 359 100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766 200 men and 592 900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100 000 men and 83.9/100 000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100 000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates-though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325 000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.