Dynamic models of energy allocation and investment

In dynamic models of energy allocation, assimilated energy is allocated to reproduction, somatic growth, maintenance or storage, and the allocation pattern can change with age. The expected evolutionary outcome is an optimal allocation pattern, but this depends on the environment experienced during the evolutionary process and on the fitness costs and benefits incurred by allocating resources in different ways. Here we review existing treatments which encompass some of the possibilities as regards constant or variable environments and their predictability or unpredictability, and the ways in which production rates and mortality rates depend on body size and composition and age and on the pattern of energy allocation. The optimal policy is to allocate resources where selection pressures are highest, and simultaneous allocation to several body subsystems and reproduction can be optimal if these pressures are equal. This may explain balanced growth commonly observed during ontogeny. Growth ceases at maturity in many models; factors favouring growth after maturity include non-linear trade-offs, variable season length, and production and mortality rates both increasing (or decreasing) functions of body size. We cannot yet say whether these are sufficient to account for the many known cases of growth after maturity and not all reasonable models have yet been explored. Factors favouring storage are also reviewed.

Loss of mating flight and shift in the pattern of carbohydrate storage in sexuals of ants (Hymenoptera; Formicidae)

In ants, energy for flying is derived from carbohydrates (glycogen and free sugars). The amount of these substrates was compared in sexuals participating or not participating in mating flights. Results show that in participating females (Lasius niger, L. flavus, Myrmica scabrinodis, Formica rufa, F. polyctena, F. lugubris), the amount of carbohydrates, especially glycogen, was higher than in non-participating females (Cataglyphis cursor, Iridomyrmex humilis). Similarly, male C. cursor and I. humilis which fly, exhibit a much higher carbohydrate content than do the non-flying females of these species. Furthermore, the quantity of carbohydrates stored was generally higher in males than in females for each species. These results are discussed with regard to the loss of the nuptial flight by some species of ants.

Does a mandatory telemedicine call prior to visiting a physician reduce costs or simply attract good risks?

This paper aims to estimate empirically the efficiency of a Swiss telemedicine service introduced in 2003. We used claims' data gathered by a major Swiss health insurer, over a period of 6 years and involving 160 000 insured adults. In Switzerland, health insurance is mandatory, but everyone has the option of choosing between a managed care plan and a fee-for-service plan. This paper focuses on a conventional fee-for-service plan including a mandatory access to a telemedicine service; the insured are obliged to phone this medical call centre before visiting a physician. This type of plan generates much lower average health expenditures than a conventional insurance plan. Reasons for this may include selection, incentive effects or efficiency. In our sample, about 90% of the difference in health expenditure can be explained by selection and incentive effects. The remaining 10% of savings due to the efficiency of the telemedicine service amount to about SFr 150 per year per insured, of which approximately 60% is saved by the insurer and 40% by the insured. Although the efficiency effect is greater than the cost of the plan, the big winners are the insured who not only save monetary and non-monetary costs but also benefit from reduced premiums. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantifying sediment storage in a high Alpine valley (Turtmanntal, Switzerland)

The determination of sediment storage is a critical parameter in sediment budget analyses. But, in many sediment budget studies the quantification of magnitude and time-scale of sediment storage is still the weakest part and often relies on crude estimations only, especially in large drainage basins (>100km2). We present a new approach to storage quantification in a meso-scale alpine catchment of the Swiss Alps (Turtmann Valley, 110km2). The quantification of depositional volumes was performed by combining geophysical surveys and geographic information system (GIS) modelling techniques. Mean thickness values of each landform type calculated from these data was used to estimate the sediment volume in the hanging valleys and the trough slopes. Sediment volume of the remaining subsystems was determined by modelling an assumed parabolic bedrock surface using digital elevation model (DEM) data. A total sediment volume of 781·3×106?1005·7×106m3 is deposited in the Turtmann Valley. Over 60% of this volume is stored in the 13 hanging valleys. Moraine landforms contain over 60% of the deposits in the hanging valleys followed by sediment stored on slopes (20%) and rock glaciers (15%). For the first time, a detailed quantification of different storage types was achieved in a catchment of this size. Sediment volumes have been used to calculate mean denudation rates for the different processes ranging from 0·1 to 2·6mm/a based on a time span of 10ka. As the quantification approach includes a number of assumptions and various sources of error the values given represent the order of magnitude of sediment storage that has to be expected in a catchment of this size.

Integrating life cycle costs and environmental impacts of composite rail car-bodies for a Korean train

Background, aim, and scope A coupled Life Cycle Costing and life cycle assessment has been performed for car-bodies of the Korean Tilting Train eXpress (TTX) project using European and Korean databases, with the objective of assessing environmental and cost performance to aid materials and process selection. More specifically, the potential of polymer composite car-body structures for the Korean Tilting Train eXpress (TTX) has been investigated. Materials and methods This assessment includes the cost of both carriage manufacturing and use phases, coupled with the life cycle environmental impacts of all stages from raw material production, through carriage manufacture and use, to end-of-life scenarios. Metallic carriages were compared with two composite options: hybrid steel-composite and full-composite carriages. The total planned production for this regional Korean train was 440 cars, with an annual production volume of 80 cars. Results and discussion The coupled analyses were used to generate plots of cost versus energy consumption and environmental impacts. The results show that the raw material and manufacturing phase costs are approximately half of the total life cycle costs, whilst their environmental impact is relatively insignificant (3-8%). The use phase of the car-body has the largest environmental impact for all scenarios, with near negligible contributions from the other phases. Since steel rail carriages weigh more (27-51%), the use phase cost is correspondingly higher, resulting in both the greatest environmental impact and the highest life cycle cost. Compared to the steel scenario, the hybrid composite variant has a lower life cycle cost (16%) and a lower environmental impact (26%). Though the full composite rail carriage may have the highest manufacturing cost, it results in the lowest total life cycle costs and lowest environmental impacts. Conclusions and recommendations This coupled cost and life cycle assessment showed that the full composite variant was the optimum solution. This case study showed that coupling of technical cost models with life cycle assessment offers an efficient route to accurately evaluate economic and environmental performance in a consistent way.

Medical and pharmacological direct costs of a 9-week smoking cessation programme.

Background: Medical and pharmacological direct costs of cigarette smoking cessation programmes are not covered by health insurance in several countries despite documented cost-effectiveness. Design: prospective cost identification study of a 9-week programme in Switzerland. Methods: A total of 481 smokers were followed-up for 9 weeks. Socio-demographic characteristics, number of outpatient visits, dosage and frequency of use of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) as well as date of relapse were prospectively collected. Individual cost of care until relapse or programme end as well as cost per week of follow-up were computed. Comparisons were carried out between the groups with or without relapse at the end of the programme. Results: Of the 209 men and 272 women included, 347 patients (72%) finished the programme. Among them, 240 patients (70%) succeeded in quitting and 107 patients (30%) relapsed. As compared with the group relapsing by the end of the programme, the group succeeding in quitting was more often living in a couple (68% vs. 55%, p = 0.029). Their mean weekly costs of visits were higher (CHF 81.2 ± 6.1 vs. 78.4 ± 7.6, p = 0.001), while their mean weekly costs for NRT were similar (CHF 24.2 ± 12.6 vs. 25.4 ± 15.9, p = 0.711). Mean total costs per week were similar (CHF 105.4 ± 15.4 vs. 103.8 ± 19.4, p = 0.252). More intensive NRT at week 4 increased the probability not to relapse at the end of the programme. Conclusions: Over 9 weeks, medical and pharmacological costs of stopping smoking are low. Good medical and social support as well as adequate NRT seem to play a role in successful quitting.

Costs of female reproduction in a conifer tree: a whole-tree level assessment

1. Costs of reproduction lie at the core of basic ecological and evolutionary theories, and their existence is commonly invoked to explain adaptive processes. Despite their sheer importance, empirical evidence for the existence and quantification of costs of reproduction in tree species comes mostly from correlational studies, while more comprehensive approaches remain missing. Manipulative experiments are a preferred approach to study cost of reproduction, as they allow controlling for otherwise inherent confounding factors like size or genetic background. 2. Here, we conducted a manipulative experiment in a Pinus halepensis common garden, removing developing cones from a group of trees and comparing growth and reproduction after treatment with a control group. We also estimated phenotypic and genetic correlations between reproductive and vegetative traits. 3. Manipulated trees grew slightly more than control trees just after treatment, with just a transient, marginally non-significant difference. By contrast, larger differences were observed for the number of female cones initiated 1 year after treatment, with an increase of 70% more cones in the manipulated group. Phenotypic and genetic correlations showed that smaller trees invested a higher proportion of their resources in reproduction, compared with larger trees, which could be interpreted as an indirect evidence for costs of reproduction. 4. Synthesis. This research showed a high impact of current reproduction on reproductive potential, even when not significant on vegetative growth. This has strong implications for how we understand adaptive strategies in forest trees and should encourage further interest on their still poorly known reproductive life-history traits.

Population genomics of eusocial insects: the costs of a vertebrate-like effective population size

The evolution of reproductive division of labour and social life in social insects has lead to the emergence of several life-history traits and adaptations typical of larger organisms: social insect colonies can reach masses of several kilograms, they start reproducing only when they are several years old, and can live for decades. These features and the monopolization of reproduction by only one or few individuals in a colony should affect molecular evolution by reducing the effective population size. We tested this prediction by analysing genome-wide patterns of coding sequence polymorphism and divergence in eusocial vs. noneusocial insects based on newly generated RNA-seq data. We report very low amounts of genetic polymorphism and an elevated ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous changes - a marker of the effective population size - in four distinct species of eusocial insects, which were more similar to vertebrates than to solitary insects regarding molecular evolutionary processes. Moreover, the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions was positively correlated with the level of social complexity across ant species. These results are fully consistent with the hypothesis of a reduced effective population size and an increased genetic load in eusocial insects, indicating that the evolution of social life has important consequences at both the genomic and population levels.

Persistence of Transmitted HIV-1 Drug Resistance Mutations Associated with Fitness Costs and Viral Genetic Backgrounds.

Transmission of drug-resistant pathogens presents an almost-universal challenge for fighting infectious diseases. Transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) can persist in the absence of drugs for considerable time. It is generally believed that differential TDRM-persistence is caused, at least partially, by variations in TDRM-fitness-costs. However, in vivo epidemiological evidence for the impact of fitness costs on TDRM-persistence is rare. Here, we studied the persistence of TDRM in HIV-1 using longitudinally-sampled nucleotide sequences from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study (SHCS). All treatment-naïve individuals with TDRM at baseline were included. Persistence of TDRM was quantified via reversion rates (RR) determined with interval-censored survival models. Fitness costs of TDRM were estimated in the genetic background in which they occurred using a previously published and validated machine-learning algorithm (based on in vitro replicative capacities) and were included in the survival models as explanatory variables. In 857 sequential samples from 168 treatment-naïve patients, 17 TDRM were analyzed. RR varied substantially and ranged from 174.0/100-person-years;CI=[51.4, 588.8] (for 184V) to 2.7/100-person-years;[0.7, 10.9] (for 215D). RR increased significantly with fitness cost (increase by 1.6[1.3,2.0] per standard deviation of fitness costs). When subdividing fitness costs into the average fitness cost of a given mutation and the deviation from the average fitness cost of a mutation in a given genetic background, we found that both components were significantly associated with reversion-rates. Our results show that the substantial variations of TDRM persistence in the absence of drugs are associated with fitness-cost differences both among mutations and among different genetic backgrounds for the same mutation.

Generation and interconnection capacity expansion in cross-border electricity markets : the need for policy coordination

Electricity is a strategic service in modern societies. Thus, it is extremely important for governments to be able to guarantee an affordable and reliable supply, which depends to a great extent on an adequate expansion of the generation and transmission capacities. Cross- border integration of electricity markets creates new challenges for the regulators, since the evolution of the market is now influenced by the characteristics and policies of neighbouring countries. There is still no agreement on why and how regions should integrate their electricity markets. The aim of this thesis is to improve the understanding of integrated electricity markets and how their behaviour depends on the prevailing characteristics of the national markets and the policies implemented in each country. We developed a simulation model to analyse under what circumstances integration is desirable. This model is used to study three cases of interconnection between two countries. Several policies regarding interconnection expansion and operation, combined with different generation capacity adequacy mechanisms, are evaluated. The thesis is composed of three papers. The first paper presents a detailed description of the model and an analysis of the case of Colombia and Ecuador. It shows that market coupling can bring important benefits, but the relative size of the countries can lead to import dependency issues in the smaller country. The second paper compares the case of Colombia and Ecuador with the case of Great Britain and France. These countries are significantly different in terms of electricity sources, hydro- storage capacity, complementarity and demand growth. We show that complementarity is essential in order to obtain benefits from integration, while higher demand growth and hydro- storage capacity can lead to counterintuitive outcomes, thus complicating policy design. In the third paper, an extended version of the model presented in the first paper is used to analyse the case of Finland and its interconnection with Russia. Different trading arrangements are considered. We conclude that unless interconnection capacity is expanded, the current trading arrangement, where a single trader owns the transmission rights and limits the flow during peak hours, is beneficial for Finland. In case of interconnection expansion, market coupling would be preferable. We also show that the costs of maintaining a strategic reserve in Finland are justified in order to limit import dependency, while still reaping the benefits of interconnection. In general, we conclude that electricity market integration can bring benefits if the right policies are implemented. However, a large interconnection capacity is only desirable if the countries exhibit significant complementarity and trust each other. The outcomes of policies aimed at guaranteeing security of supply at a national level can be quite counterintuitive due to the interactions between neighbouring countries and their effects on interconnection and generation investments. Thus, it is important for regulators to understand these interactions and coordinate their decisions in order to take advantage of the interconnection without putting security of supply at risk. But it must be taken into account that even when integration brings benefits to the region, some market participants lose and might try to hinder the integration process. -- Dans les sociétés modernes, l'électricité est un service stratégique. Il est donc extrêmement important pour les gouvernements de pouvoir garantir la sécurité d'approvisionnement à des prix abordables. Ceci dépend en grande mesure d'une expansion adéquate des capacités de génération et de transmission. L'intégration des marchés électriques pose des nouveaux défis pour les régulateurs, puisque l'évolution du marché est maintenant influencée par les caractéristiques et les politiques des pays voisins. Il n'est pas encore claire pourquoi ni comment les marches électriques devraient s'intégrer. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'améliorer la compréhension des marchés intégrés d'électricité et de leur comportement en fonction des caractéristiques et politiques de chaque pays. Un modèle de simulation est proposé pour étudier les conditions dans lesquelles l'intégration est désirable. Ce modèle est utilisé pour étudier trois cas d'interconnexion entre deux pays. Plusieurs politiques concernant l'expansion et l'opération de l'interconnexion, combinées avec différents mécanismes de rémunération de la capacité, sont évalués. Cette thèse est compose de trois articles. Le premier présente une description détaillée du modèle et une analyse du cas de la Colombie et de l'Equateur. Il montre que le couplage de marchés peut amener des bénéfices importants ; cependant, la différence de taille entre pays peut créer des soucis de dépendance aux importations pour le pays le plus petit. Le second papier compare le cas de la Colombie et l'Equateur avec le cas de la Grande Bretagne et de la France. Ces pays sont très différents en termes de ressources, taille des réservoirs d'accumulation pour l'hydro, complémentarité et croissance de la demande. Nos résultats montrent que la complémentarité joue un rôle essentiel dans l'obtention des bénéfices potentiels de l'intégration, alors qu'un taux élevé de croissance de la demande, ainsi qu'une grande capacité de stockage, mènent à des résultats contre-intuitifs, ce qui complique les décisions des régulateurs. Dans le troisième article, une extension du modèle présenté dans le premier article est utilisée pour analyser le cas de la Finlande et de la Russie. Différentes règles pour les échanges internationaux d'électricité sont considérées. Nos résultats indiquent qu'à un faible niveau d'interconnexion, la situation actuelle, où un marchand unique possède les droits de transmission et limite le flux pendant les heures de pointe, est bénéfique pour la Finlande. Cependant, en cas d'expansion de la capacité d'interconnexion, «market coupling» est préférable. préférable. Dans tous les cas, la Finlande a intérêt à garder une réserve stratégique, car même si cette politique entraine des coûts, elle lui permet de profiter des avantages de l'intégration tout en limitant ca dépendance envers les importations. En général, nous concluons que si les politiques adéquates sont implémentées, l'intégration des marchés électriques peut amener des bénéfices. Cependant, une grande capacité d'interconnexion n'est désirable que si les pays ont une complémentarité importante et il existe une confiance mutuelle. Les résultats des politiques qui cherchent à préserver la sécurité d'approvisionnement au niveau national peuvent être très contre-intuitifs, étant données les interactions entre les pays voisins et leurs effets sur les investissements en génération et en interconnexion. Il est donc très important pour les régulateurs de comprendre ces interactions et de coordonner décisions à fin de pouvoir profiter de l'interconnexion sans mettre en danger la sécurité d'approvisionnement. Mais il faut être conscients que même quand l'intégration amène de bénéfices pour la région, certains participants au marché sont perdants et pourraient essayer de bloquer le processus d'intégration.

Impact on costs of a case management intervention for emergency department frequent users

Background: In most of the emergency departments (ED) in developed countries, a subset of patients visits the ED frequently. Despite their small numbers, these patients are the source of a disproportionally high number of all ED visits, and use a significant proportion of healthcare resources. They place a heavy economic burden on hospital and healthcare system budgets overall. In order to improve the management of these patients, the University hospital of Lausanne, Switzerland implemented a case management intervention (CM) between May 2012 and July 2013. In this randomized controlled trial, 250 frequent ED users (visits>5 during previous 12 months) were allocated to either the CM group or the standard ED care (SC) group and followed up for 12 months. The first result of the CM was to reduce significantly the ED visits. The present study examined whether the CM intervention also reduced the costs generated by the ED frequent users not only from the hospital perspective, but also from the healthcare system perspective. Methods: Cost data were obtained from the hospital's analytical accounting system and from health insurances. Multivariate linear models including a fixed effect "group" and socio-demographic characteristics and health-related variables were run.

Paying the costs of reproduction.

When a female fly mates it produces a hormone that increases the size of its midgut and enhances fat metabolism in order to provide the energy needed for reproduction.