88 resultados para Transitory shocks, mean reversion, rainfall, conflict


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The use of specific terms under different meanings and varying definitions has always been a source of confusion in science. When we point our efforts towards an evidence based medicine for inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) the same is true: Terms such as "mucosal healing" or "deep remission" as endpoints in clinical trials or treatment goals in daily patient care may contribute to misconceptions if meanings change over time or definitions are altered. It appears to be useful to first have a look at the development of terms and their definitions, to assess their intrinsic and context-independent problems and then to analyze the different relevance in present-day clinical studies and trials. The purpose of such an attempt would be to gain clearer insights into the true impact of the clinical findings behind the terms. It may also lead to a better defined use of those terms for future studies. The terms "mucosal healing" and "deep remission" have been introduced in recent years as new therapeutic targets in the treatment of IBD patients. Several clinical trials, cohort studies or inception cohorts provided data that the long term disease course is better, when mucosal healing is achieved. However, it is still unclear whether continued or increased therapeutic measures will aid or improve mucosal healing for patients in clinical remission. Clinical trials are under way to answer this question. Attention should be paid to clearly address what levels of IBD activity are looked at. In the present review article authors aim to summarize the current evidence available on mucosal healing and deep remission and try to highlight their value and position in the everyday decision making for gastroenterologists.

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Abstract Electrical stimulation is a new way to treat digestive disorders such as constipation. Colonic propulsive activity can be triggered by battery operated devices. This study aimed to demonstrate the effect of direct electrical colonic stimulation on mean transit time in a chronic porcine model. The impact of stimulation and implanted material on the colonic wall was also assessed. Three pairs of electrodes were implanted into the caecal wall of 12 anaesthetized pigs. Reference colonic transit time was determined by radiopaque markers for each pig before implantation. It was repeated 4 weeks after implantation with sham stimulation and 5 weeks after implantation with electrical stimulation. Aboral sequential trains of 1-ms pulse width (10 V; 120 Hz) were applied twice daily for 6 days, using an external battery operated stimulator. For each course of markers, a mean value was computed from transit times obtained from individual pig. Microscopic examination of the caecum was routinely performed after animal sacrifice. A reduction of mean transit time was observed after electrical stimulation (19 +/- 13 h; mean +/- SD) when compared to reference (34 +/- 7 h; P = 0.045) and mean transit time after sham stimulation (36 +/- 9 h; P = 0.035). Histological examination revealed minimal chronic inflammation around the electrodes. Colonic transit time measured in a chronic porcine model is reduced by direct sequential electrical stimulation. Minimal tissue lesion is elicited by stimulation or implanted material. Electrical colonic stimulation could be a promising approach to treat specific disorders of the large bowel.

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In this paper, we develop a data-driven methodology to characterize the likelihood of orographic precipitation enhancement using sequences of weather radar images and a digital elevation model (DEM). Geographical locations with topographic characteristics favorable to enforce repeatable and persistent orographic precipitation such as stationary cells, upslope rainfall enhancement, and repeated convective initiation are detected by analyzing the spatial distribution of a set of precipitation cells extracted from radar imagery. Topographic features such as terrain convexity and gradients computed from the DEM at multiple spatial scales as well as velocity fields estimated from sequences of weather radar images are used as explanatory factors to describe the occurrence of localized precipitation enhancement. The latter is represented as a binary process by defining a threshold on the number of cell occurrences at particular locations. Both two-class and one-class support vector machine classifiers are tested to separate the presumed orographic cells from the nonorographic ones in the space of contributing topographic and flow features. Site-based validation is carried out to estimate realistic generalization skills of the obtained spatial prediction models. Due to the high class separability, the decision function of the classifiers can be interpreted as a likelihood or susceptibility of orographic precipitation enhancement. The developed approach can serve as a basis for refining radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates and short-term forecasts or for generating stochastic precipitation ensembles conditioned on the local topography.

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PURPOSE: To retrospectively assess the frequency of adverse events related to percutaneous preoperative portal vein embolization (PPVE). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Institutional review board did not require its approval or patient informed consent for this study. The adverse events that occurred during PPVE or until planned hepatic surgery was performed or cancelled were retrospectively obtained from clinical, imaging, and laboratory data files in 188 patients (109 male and 79 female patients; mean age, 60 years; range, 16-78 years). Liver resection was planned for metastases (n = 137), hepatocarcinoma (n = 31), cholangiocarcinoma (n = 15), fibrolamellar hepatoma (n = 1), and benign disease (n = 4). PPVE was performed with a single-lumen 5-F catheter and a contralateral approach with n-butyl cyanoacrylate mixed with iodized oil as the main embolic agent. The rate of complications in patients with cirrhosis was compared with that in patients without cirrhosis by using the chi(2) test. RESULTS: Adverse events occurred in 24 (12.8%) of 188 patients, including 12 complications and 12 incidental imaging findings. Complications included thrombosis of the portal vein feeding the future remnant liver (n = 1); migration of emboli in the portal vein feeding the future remnant liver, which necessitated angioplasty (n = 2); hemoperitoneum (n = 1); rupture of a metastasis in the gallbladder (n = 1); transitory hemobilia (n = 1); and transient liver failure (n = 6). Incidental findings were migration of small emboli in nontargeted portal branches (n = 10) and subcapsular hematoma (n = 2). Among the 187 patients in whom PPVE was technically successful, there was a significant difference (P < .001) between the occurrence of liver failure after PPVE in patients with cirrhosis (five of 30) and those without (one of 157). Sixteen liver resections were cancelled due to cancer progression (n = 12), insufficient hypertrophy of the nonembolized liver (n = 3), and complete portal thrombosis (n = 1). CONCLUSION: PPVE is a safe adjuvant technique for hypertrophy of the initially insufficient liver reserve. Post-PPVE transient liver failure is more common in patients with cirrhosis than in those without cirrhosis.

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AIMS: To investigate the relationship of alcohol consumption with the metabolic syndrome and diabetes in a population-based study with high mean alcohol consumption. Few data exist on these conditions in high-risk drinkers. METHODS: In 6172 adults aged 35-75 years, alcohol consumption was categorized as 0, 1-6, 7-13, 14-20, 21-27, 28-34 and ≥ 35 drinks/week or as non-drinkers (0), low-risk (1-13), medium-to-high-risk (14-34) and very-high-risk (≥ 35) drinkers. Alcohol consumption was objectively confirmed by biochemical tests. In multivariate analysis, we assessed the relationship of alcohol consumption with adjusted prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, diabetes and insulin resistance, determined with the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). RESULTS: Seventy-three per cent of participants consumed alcohol, 16% were medium-to-high-risk drinkers and 2% very-high-risk drinkers. In multivariate analysis, the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome, diabetes and mean HOMA-IR decreased with low-risk drinking and increased with high-risk drinking. Adjusted prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 24% in non-drinkers, 19% in low-risk (P<0.001 vs. non-drinkers), 20% in medium-to-high-risk and 29% in very-high-risk drinkers (P=0.005 vs. low-risk). Adjusted prevalence of diabetes was 6.0% in non-drinkers, 3.6% in low-risk (P<0.001 vs. non-drinkers), 3.8% in medium-to-high-risk and 6.7% in very-high-risk drinkers (P=0.046 vs. low-risk). Adjusted HOMA-IR was 2.47 in non-drinkers, 2.14 in low-risk (P<0.001 vs. non-drinkers), 2.27 in medium-to-high-risk and 2.53 in very-high-risk drinkers (P=0.04 vs. low-risk). These relationships did not differ according to beverage types. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol has a U-shaped relationship with the metabolic syndrome, diabetes and HOMA-IR, without differences between beverage types.

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Elections play a crucial role in post-conflict peace and democratization processes as, among other factors, they provide an answer to the question of who is to legitimately rule the country. However, because of the competitiveness arising from their central role in allocating power they can also represent windows of vulnerability where deeply rooted societal conflicts can come to the surface. This working paper focuses on two post-conflict elections (Sierra Leone 2007; Nepal 2008) which, despite perceived high risks, did not result in widespread violence or a return to armed conflict. The aim of these case studies is to identify the factors and measures that may have played an important role in contributing to this outcome. Each of the two case studies first outlines the risks associated with the elections and then analyzes the violence and conflict preventing factors. The paper shows that that the context greatly influences the type of measures that can be taken in such situations, but that there are also some similarities in the two cases studied. In particular, it appears that that the credibility of the elections, largely attributable to a good electoral administration, was an important factor in both Nepal and Sierra Leone. Furthermore, the inclusion of all key stakeholders in decisions regarding key electoral institutions helped to diffuse potential conflict. The study also shows that in both cases the international community played an important role by providing financial, logistical and technical support and by pressuring certain important actors to comply with the rules.

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BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of a multicomponent worksite health promotion program for0 reducing cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) with short intervention, adjusting for regression towards the mean (RTM) affecting such nonexperimental study without control group. METHODS: A cohort of 4,198 workers (aged 42 +/- 10 years, range 16-76 years, 27% women) were analyzed at 3.7-year interval and stratified by each CVRF risk category (low/medium/high blood pressure [BP], total cholesterol [TC], body mass index [BMI], and smoking) with RTM and secular trend adjustments. Intervention consisted of 15 min CVRF screening and individualized counseling by health professionals to medium- and high-risk individuals, with eventual physician referral. RESULTS: High-risk groups participants improved diastolic BP (-3.4 mm Hg [95%CI: -5.1, -1.7]) in 190 hypertensive patients, TC (-0.58 mmol/l [-0.71, -0.44]) in 693 hypercholesterolemic patients, and smoking (-3.1 cig/day [-3.9, -2.3]) in 808 smokers, while systolic BP changes reflected RTM. Low-risk individuals without counseling deteriorated TC and BMI. Body weight increased uniformly in all risk groups (+0.35 kg/year). CONCLUSIONS: In real-world conditions, short intervention program participants in high-risk groups for diastolic BP, TC, and smoking improved their CVRF, whereas low-risk TC and BMI groups deteriorated. Future programs may include specific advises to low-risk groups to maintain a favorable CVRF profile.