Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Anti-60-kDa heat shock protein antibodies in fetal serum: a biomarker for unexplained small for gestational age fetuses.

Introduction: Small for gestational age (SGA) is an important problem affecting 10% of pregnancies and is associated with significant perinatal morbidity. In about 80% of cases, a probable etiology or a major risk factor can be identified. But almost 20% of SGA cases are considered unexplained. The 60-kDa heat shock protein (HSP60) is a highly immunogenic protein whose synthesis is greatly upregulated under nonphysiological conditions. Bacterial and human HSP60 share a high degree of sequence homology, and immunity to conserved epitopes may result in development of autoimmunity following a bacterial infection. We hypothesized that unexplained SGA could be the consequence of immune sensitization to human HSP60. Methods: Unexplained SGA fetuses were identified by ultrasound biometry with normal Doppler velocimetry and with no detectable maternal or fetal abnormalities. Fetal sera were obtained by cordocentesis performed for a karyotype analysis in cases of unexplained SGA (study group) or for screening of Rhesus incompatibility (control group). Fetal sera were tested for HSP60 antigen and for IgG and IgM anti-HSP60 by ELISA as well as for other immune and hematological parameters. Results: Maternal parameters were similar between the 12 study cases and the 23 control cases. The mean gestational age at cordocentesis was 29 weeks. IgM anti-HSP60 was detected in 12 cases (100%) and in no controls (p < 0.00017), while IgG anti-HSP60 was detected in 7 cases (58%) and only 1 control (p < 0.001). Three of the 4 cases with the highest IgM antibody levels died. There were no differences in fetal serum levels of HSP60 antigen or other immune and hematological markers between the two groups. Conclusion: Fetuses with unexplained SGA are positive for IgM and IgG antibody to human HSP60 and the specific IgM antibody level is predictive of fetal mortality. Detection of these antibodies indicates that a placental perturbation and a fetal autoimmune reaction to HSP60 are associated with this developmental delay.

New microfluidic-based sampling procedure for overcoming the hematocrit problem associated with dried blood spot analysis.

Hematocrit (Hct) is one of the most critical issues associated with the bioanalytical methods used for dried blood spot (DBS) sample analysis. Because Hct determines the viscosity of blood, it may affect the spreading of blood onto the filter paper. Hence, accurate quantitative data can only be obtained if the size of the paper filter extracted contains a fixed blood volume. We describe for the first time a microfluidic-based sampling procedure to enable accurate blood volume collection on commercially available DBS cards. The system allows the collection of a controlled volume of blood (e.g., 5 or 10 μL) within several seconds. Reproducibility of the sampling volume was examined in vivo on capillary blood by quantifying caffeine and paraxanthine on 5 different extracted DBS spots at two different time points and in vitro with a test compound, Mavoglurant, on 10 different spots at two Hct levels. Entire spots were extracted. In addition, the accuracy and precision (n = 3) data for the Mavoglurant quantitation in blood with Hct levels between 26% and 62% were evaluated. The interspot precision data were below 9.0%, which was equivalent to that of a manually spotted volume with a pipet. No Hct effect was observed in the quantitative results obtained for Hct levels from 26% to 62%. These data indicate that our microfluidic-based sampling procedure is accurate and precise and that the analysis of Mavoglurant is not affected by the Hct values. This provides a simple procedure for DBS sampling with a fixed volume of capillary blood, which could eliminate the recurrent Hct issue linked to DBS sample analysis.

Lung fluid movements in hypoxia.

Pulmonary edema is a problem of major clinical importance resulting from a persistent imbalance between forces that drive water into the airspace of the lung and the biological mechanisms for its removal. Here, we will first review the fundamental mechanisms implicated in the regulation of lung fluid homeostasis, namely, the Starling forces and the respiratory transepithelial sodium transport. Second, we will discuss the contribution of hypoxia to the perturbation of this fine balance and the role of such perturbations in the development of high-altitude pulmonary edema, a disease characterized by a very high morbidity and mortality. Finally, we will review possible interventions aimed to maintain/restore lung fluid homeostasis and their importance for the prevention/treatment of pulmonary edema.

What's so special about conversion disorder? A problem and a proposal for diagnostic classification.

Conversion disorder presents a problem for the revisions of DSM-IV and ICD-10, for reasons that are informative about the difficulties of psychiatric classification more generally. Giving up criteria based on psychological aetiology may be a painful sacrifice but it is still the right thing to do.

Rapid Perturbation in Viremia Levels Drives Increases in Functional Avidity of HIV-specific CD8 T Cells.

The factors determining the functional avidity and its relationship with the broad heterogeneity of antiviral T cell responses remain partially understood. We investigated HIV-specific CD8 T cell responses in 85 patients with primary HIV infection (PHI) or chronic (progressive and non-progressive) infection. The functional avidity of HIV-specific CD8 T cells was not different between patients with progressive and non-progressive chronic infection. However, it was significantly lower in PHI patients at the time of diagnosis of acute infection and after control of virus replication following one year of successful antiretroviral therapy. High-avidity HIV-specific CD8 T cells expressed lower levels of CD27 and CD28 and were enriched in cells with an exhausted phenotype, i.e. co-expressing PD-1/2B4/CD160. Of note, a significant increase in the functional avidity of HIV-specific CD8 T cells occurred in early-treated PHI patients experiencing a virus rebound after spontaneous treatment interruption. This increase in functional avidity was associated with the accumulation of PD-1/2B4/CD160 positive cells, loss of polyfunctionality and increased TCR renewal. The increased TCR renewal may provide the mechanistic basis for the generation of high-avidity HIV-specific CD8 T cells. These results provide insights on the relationships between functional avidity, viremia, T-cell exhaustion and TCR renewal of antiviral CD8 T cell responses.

Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.