Extent of hypoattenuation on CT angiography source images in basilar artery occlusion: prognostic value in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-ASPECTS) quantifies the extent of early ischemic changes in the posterior circulation with a 10-point grading system. We hypothesized that pc-ASPECTS applied to CT angiography source images predicts functional outcome of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS). METHODS: BASICS was a prospective, observational registry of consecutive patients with acute symptomatic basilar artery occlusion. Functional outcome was assessed at 1 month. We applied pc-ASPECTS to CT angiography source images of patients with CT angiography for confirmation of basilar artery occlusion. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios (RRs) of pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at ≥8 versus <8. Primary outcome measure was favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale scores 0-3). Secondary outcome measures were mortality and functional independence (modified Rankin Scale scores 0-2). RESULTS: Of 158 patients included, 78 patients had a CT angiography source images pc-ASPECTS≥8. Patients with a pc-ASPECTS≥8 more often had a favorable outcome than patients with a pc-ASPECTS<8 (crude RR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.98-3.0). After adjustment for age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and thrombolysis, pc-ASPECTS≥8 was not related to favorable outcome (RR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.8-2.2), but it was related to reduced mortality (RR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.98) and functional independence (RR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.8). In post hoc analysis, pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at ≥6 versus <6 predicted a favorable outcome (adjusted RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.2-7.5). CONCLUSIONS: pc-ASPECTS on CT angiography source images independently predicted death and functional independence at 1 month in the CT angiography subgroup of patients in the BASICS registry.

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. FINDINGS: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. INTERPRETATION: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

Comparative effectiveness research across two spine registries.

BACKGROUND: Comparative effectiveness research in spine surgery is still a rarity. In this study, pain alleviation and quality of life (QoL) improvement after lumbar total disc arthroplasty (TDA) and anterior lumbar interbody fusion (ALIF) were anonymously compared by surgeon and implant. METHODS: A total of 534 monosegmental TDAs from the SWISSspine registry were analyzed. Mean age was 42 years (19-65 years), 59% were females. Fifty cases with ALIF were documented in the international Spine Tango registry and used as concurrent comparator group for the pain analysis. Mean age was 46 years (21-69 years), 78% were females. The average follow-up time in both samples was 1 year. Comparison of back/leg pain alleviation and QoL improvement was performed. Unadjusted and adjusted probabilities for achievement of minimum clinically relevant improvements of 18 VAS points or 0.25 EQ-5D points were calculated for each surgeon. RESULTS: Mean preoperative back pain decreased from 69 to 30 points at 1 year (ØΔ 39pts) after TDA, and from 66 to 27 points after ALIF (ØΔ 39pts). Mean preoperative QoL improved from 0.34 to 0.74 points at 1 year (ØΔ 0.40pts). There were surgeons with better patient selection, indicated by lower adjusted probabilities reflecting worsening of outcomes if they had treated an average patient sample. ALIF had similar pain alleviation than TDA. CONCLUSIONS: Pain alleviation after TDA and ALIF was similar. Differences in surgeon's patient selection based on pain and QoL were revealed. Some surgeons seem to miss the full therapeutic potential of TDA by selecting patients with lower symptom severity.

Socioeconomic gradients in mortality in the oldest old: a review.

This review aims at identifying gaps in knowledge on socioeconomic gradients in mortality in the oldest old. The authors review literature on oldest old population with a focus on unanswered questions: do socioeconomic status (SES) gradients in mortality persist after 80; does the magnitude of the gradient change as compared with younger populations; which socioeconomic/socio-demographic determinants should be used in this population with specific characteristics (e.g., with respect to sex ratio and household type)? Results are often inconsistent while conclusions drawn by selected studies are generally limited by the difficulty of disentangling the effects of age and cohort, and of generalizing results observed in preponderantly small, selected samples (which typically exclude institutionalized persons). Future research should explore the effects of socio-demographic indicators other than education and social class (e.g., marital status, loss of the partner) and adequately differentiate the social position of oldest old women. The authors recommend that research applies a life-course perspective combined with an interdisciplinary perspective to improve our understanding of the SES gradients in later life. Research is needed to elucidate which causal pathways depending on SES in younger age impact on mortality in higher ages up to oldest old.

High constant incidence rates of second primary cancers of the head and neck: a pooled analysis of 13 cancer registries.

Scanty data are available on the incidence (i.e., the absolute risk) of second cancers of the head and neck (HN) and its pattern with age. We investigated this issue using data from a multicentric study of 13 population-based cancer registries from Europe, Canada, Australia and Singapore for the years 1943-2000. A total of 99,257 patients had a first primary HN cancer (15,985 tongue, 22,378 mouth, 20,758 pharyngeal, and 40,190 laryngeal cancer), contributing to 489,855 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1,294 of the patients (1.3%) were diagnosed with second HN cancers (342 tongue, 345 mouth, 418 pharynx and 189 larynx). Male incidence rates of first HN cancer steeply increased from 0.68/100,000 at age 30-34 to 46.2/100,000 at age 70-74, and leveled off at older age; female incidence increased from 0.50/100,000 at age 30-34 to 16.5/100,000 at age 80-84. However, age-specific incidence of second HN cancers after a first HN cancer in men was around 200-300/100,000 between age 40-44 and age 70-74 and tended to decline at subsequent ages (150/100,000 at age 80-84); in women, incidence of second HN cancers was around 200-300/100,000 between age 45-49 and 80-84. The patterns of age-specific incidence were consistent for different subsites of second HN cancer and sexes; moreover, they were similar for age-specific incidence of first primary HN cancer in patients who subsequently developed a second HN cancer. The incidence of second HN cancers does not increase with age, but remains constant, or if anything, decreases with advancing age.

Trends in cancer mortality in Mexico, 1981-2007.

The objective of this study was to provideinformation on recent trends in cancer mortality in Mexico. We analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization, using joinpoint analysis to detect changes in trends between 1981 and 2007. For most cancers, mortality was upward but started to decline in the late 1980's/early 1990's for both sexes. Overall cancer mortality was 75.53/100 000 men, world standard, and 69.2/100 000 women in 2005-2007. Mortality from uterine cancer declined by approximately 2.5% per year in the 1990s, and by approximately 5% per year in the last decade, but its rates remained exceedingly high (9.7/100 000 in 2005-2007). Other major declines over recent years were those of stomach cancer (approximately 2.5% per year, with rates of 6.6/100 000 in men and 4.9/100 000 in women in 2005-2007) and lung cancer (2-2.5% per year, 11.0/100 000 in men and 4.5/100 000 in women in 2005-2007). Mortality leveled off only since the early 1990s for breast and prostate, and since the late 1990s for colorectal cancer. Death rates from cancer in Mexico remained low on a worldwide scale and showed favorable trends over more recent calendar years. Mortality from (cervix) uterine cancer still represents a major public health priority in this country.

Less mortality but more relapses in experimental allergic encephalomyelitis in CD8-/- mice.

Mice lacking in CD8 were generated from homologous recombination in embryonal stem cells at the CD8 locus and bred with the experimental allergic encephalomyelitis (EAE)-susceptible PL/JH-2u through four backcross generations to investigate the role of CD8+ T cells in this model of multiple sclerosis. The disease onset and susceptibility were similar to those of wild-type mice. However, the mutant mice had a milder acute EAE, reflected by fewer deaths, but more chronic EAE, reflected by a higher frequency of relapse. This suggests that CD8+ T lymphocytes may participate as both effectors and regulators in this animal model.

Weekend versus weekday admission and mortality after acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Optimal management of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) requires medical expertise, diagnostic testing, and therapies that may not be available consistently throughout the entire week. We sought to assess whether associations exist between weekday or weekend admission and mortality and length of hospital stay for patients hospitalized with PE. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated patients discharged with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 acute care hospitals in Pennsylvania (January 2000 to November 2002). We used random-effect logistic models to study the association between weekend admission and 30-day mortality and used discrete survival models to study the association between weekend admission and time to hospital discharge, adjusting for hospital (region, size, and teaching status) and patient factors (race, insurance, severity of illness, and use of thrombolytic therapy). Among 15 531 patient discharges with PE, 3286 patients (21.2%) had been admitted on a weekend. Patients admitted on weekends had a higher unadjusted 30-day mortality rate (11.1% versus 8.8%) than patients admitted on weekdays, with no difference in length of stay. Patients admitted on weekends had significantly greater adjusted odds of dying (odds ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.34) than patients admitted on weekdays. The higher mortality among patients hospitalized on weekends was driven by the increased mortality rate among the most severely ill patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with PE who are admitted on weekends have a significantly higher short-term mortality than patients admitted on weekdays. Quality-improvement efforts should aim to ensure a consistent approach to the management of PE 7 days a week.

Congenital hydrocephalus--prevalence, prenatal diagnosis and outcome of pregnancy in four European regions.

OBJECTIVE: To describe prevalence, prenatal diagnosis and outcome for fetuses and infants with congenital hydrocephalus. METHODS: Data were taken from four European registries of congenital malformations (EUROCAT). The registries included are based on multiple sources of information and include information about livebirths, fetal deaths with GA > or = 20 weeks and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA). All cases from the four registries diagnosed with congenital hydrocephalus and born in the period 1996-2003 were included in the study. Cases with hydrocephalus associated with neural tube defects were not included in the study. RESULTS: Eighty-seven cases with congenital hydrocephalus were identified during the study period giving an overall prevalence of 4.65 per 10,000 births. There were 41 livebirths (47%), four fetal deaths (5%) and 42 TOPFA (48%). Nine percent of all cases were from a multiple pregnancy. Additional non-cerebral major malformations were diagnosed in 38 cases (44%) and karyotype anomalies in eight cases (9%). Median GA at TOPFA was 21 weeks. Among livebirths 61% were diagnosed prenatally at a median GA of 31 weeks (range 17-40 weeks) and median GA at birth was 37 weeks. Fourteen liveborn infants (34%) died within the first year of life with the majority of deaths during the first week after birth. CONCLUSION: Congenital hydrocephalus is a severe congenital malformation often associated with other congenital anomalies. CH is often diagnosed prenatally, although sometimes late in pregnancy. A high proportion of affected pregnancies result in termination for severe fetal anomaly and there is a high mortality in livebirths.

Estimating attributable mortality due to nosocomial infections acquired in intensive care units.

BACKGROUND: The strength of the association between intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired nosocomial infections (NIs) and mortality might differ according to the methodological approach taken. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between ICU-acquired NIs and mortality using the concept of population-attributable fraction (PAF) for patient deaths caused by ICU-acquired NIs in a large cohort of critically ill patients. SETTING: Eleven ICUs of a French university hospital. DESIGN: We analyzed surveillance data on ICU-acquired NIs collected prospectively during the period from 1995 through 2003. The primary outcome was mortality from ICU-acquired NI stratified by site of infection. A matched-pair, case-control study was performed. Each patient who died before ICU discharge was defined as a case patient, and each patient who survived to ICU discharge was defined as a control patient. The PAF was calculated after adjustment for confounders by use of conditional logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 8,068 ICU patients, a total of 1,725 deceased patients were successfully matched with 1,725 control patients. The adjusted PAF due to ICU-acquired NI for patients who died before ICU discharge was 14.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.4%-14.8%). Stratified by the type of infection, the PAF was 6.1% (95% CI, 5.7%-6.5%) for pulmonary infection, 3.2% (95% CI, 2.8%-3.5%) for central venous catheter infection, 1.7% (95% CI, 0.9%-2.5%) for bloodstream infection, and 0.0% (95% CI, -0.4% to 0.4%) for urinary tract infection. CONCLUSIONS: ICU-acquired NI had an important effect on mortality. However, the statistical association between ICU-acquired NI and mortality tended to be less pronounced in findings based on the PAF than in study findings based on estimates of relative risk. Therefore, the choice of methods does matter when the burden of NI needs to be assessed.

Estimating the incidence of cancers in Switzerland: 1983-1987.

Estimates have recently been made of the incidence of cancers in the countries of the European Community. Similar estimates are given for Switzerland, based on data from the six Swiss cantonal cancer registries, all of which have been operating for at least 12 years. These registries cover Basel, Geneva, Neuchatel, St Gall and Appenzell, Vaud and Zurich, which account for about 50% of the Swiss population as a whole. Two different methods were used to extrapolate from the incidences observed in the regions covered by cancer registration to the entire country. The first method is based solely on the distribution of populations according to the country's main linguistic groups, whereas the second relies on mortality data. Estimates obtained by the second approach are presented and their reliability is discussed. Comparison of the age incidence curve with that of Denmark tends to confirm the validity of the estimations. Estimated standardised rates (world population) for all sites except nonmelanomatous skin cancer are 294.3 for males and 214.2 for females. Comparisons with other European countries show that in males, lung cancer is relatively less common in Switzerland, whereas in females, breast cancer is relatively more frequent.

Primary percutaneous coronary intervention for unprotected left main disease in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction the AMIS (Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland) plus registry experience.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for unprotected left main (LM) disease. BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing LM PCI. METHODS: Of 9,075 patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction enrolled in the AMIS (Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland) Plus registry between 2005 and June 30, 2010, 6,666 underwent primary PCI. Of them, 348 (5.2%; mean age: 63.5 ± 12.6 years) underwent LM PCI, either isolated (n = 208) or concomitant to PCI for other vessel segments (n = 140). They were compared with 6,318 patients (94.8%; mean age: 61.9 ± 12.5 years) undergoing PCI of non-LM vessel segments only. RESULTS: The LM patients had higher rates of cardiogenic shock (12.2% vs. 3.5%; p < 0.001), cardiac arrest (10.6% vs. 6.3%; p < 0.01), in-hospital mortality (10.9% vs. 3.8%; p < 0.001), and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (12.4% vs. 5.0%; p < 0.001) than non-LM PCI. Rates of mortality and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were highest for concurrent LM and non-LM PCI (17.9% and 18.6%, respectively), intermediate for isolated LM PCI (6.3% and 8.3%, respectively), and lowest for non-LM PCI (3.8% and 5.0%, respectively). Rates of mortality and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events for LM PCI were higher than for non-LM multivessel PCI (10.9% vs. 4.9%, p < 0.001, and 12.4% vs. 6.4%, p < 0.001, respectively). LM disease independently predicted in-hospital death (odds ratio: 2.36; 95% confidence interval: 1.34 to 4.17; p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Emergent LM PCI in the context of acute myocardial infarction, even including 12% cardiogenic shock, appears to have a remarkably high (89%) in-hospital survival. Concurrent LM and non-LM PCI has worse outcomes than isolated LM PCI.

Predicting outcome after acute basilar artery occlusion based on admission characteristics.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple prognostic model to predict outcome at 1 month after acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) with readily available predictors. METHODS: The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) is a prospective, observational, international registry of consecutive patients who presented with an acute symptomatic and radiologically confirmed BAO. We considered predictors available at hospital admission in multivariable logistic regression models to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score 4-5 or death) at 1 month. We used receiver operator characteristic curves to assess the discriminatory performance of the models. RESULTS: Of the 619 patients, 429 (69%) had a poor outcome at 1 month: 74 (12%) had a mRS score of 4, 115 (19%) had a mRS score of 5, and 240 (39%) had died. The main predictors of poor outcome were older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, and longer time to treatment. A prognostic model that combined demographic data and stroke risk factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.64. This performance improved by including findings from the neurologic examination (AUC 0.79) and CT imaging (AUC 0.80). A risk chart showed predictions of poor outcome at 1 month varying from 25 to 96%. CONCLUSION: Poor outcome after BAO can be reliably predicted by a simple model that includes older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIHSS score, and longer time to treatment.

Hypertension et diabète ADVANCE : une étude de morbidité-mortalité : nouveautés en médecine 2007 [ADVANCE: a morbidity mortality study of diabetes and hypertension]

The ADVANCE study is a morbidity-mortality double-blind trial carried out in normotensive or hypertensive patients with type 2 diabetes. The patients were randomly assigned to receive containing a fixed-combination tablet of an ACE inhibitor (perindopril) with a diuretic (indapamide) (4 mg/l,250 mg, n=5569), or placebo (n=5571), administered if needed on top of other blood pressure lowering agents. Significant reductions in the relative risk of death from cardiovascular disease (18%), total coronary events (14%), and total renal events (21%) were observed. Thus, in patients with type 2 diabetes, a drug regimen based on a fixed-dose combination of perindopril/ indapamide affords major protection against both the macro and microvascular complications. L'étude ADVANCE est un essai clinique de morbidité-mortalité réalisé en double insu chez des malades avec diabète de type 2 normo ou hypertendus. Les malades ont été alloués au hasard pour un suivi moyen de 4,3 ans à un traitement comportant soit une association fixe de l'inhibiteur de l'ECA périndopril et du diurétique indapamide (4 mg/1,250 mg, n = 5569), soit un placebo (n = 5571), ceci en plus si nécessaire d'autres médicaments antihypertenseurs. Des réductions significatives du risque relatif ont été observées sous périndopril/indapamide, en particulier de la mortalité cardiovasculaire (18%), de l'ensemble des événements coronaires (14%) et rénaux (21%). Ainsi chez le malade avec diabète de type 2, un traitement basé sur une association de périndopril et d'indapamide à doses fixes a un effet protecteur majeur contre les complications macro et microvasculaires.

A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: A simple prognostic model could help identify patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of death and are candidates for outpatient treatment. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 retrospectively identified inpatients who had a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our rule to predict 30-day mortality using classification tree analysis and patient data routinely available at initial examination as potential predictor variables. We used data from a European prospective study to externally validate the rule among 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism. We determined mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across derivation and validation samples. RESULTS: Our final model consisted of 10 patient factors (age > or = 70 years; history of cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, and cerebrovascular disease; and clinical variables of pulse rate > or = 110 beats/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, altered mental status, and arterial oxygen saturation < 90%). Patients with none of these factors were defined as low risk. The 30-day mortality rates for low-risk patients were 0.6%, 1.5%, and 0% in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation samples, respectively. The rates of nonfatal adverse medical outcomes were less than 1% among low-risk patients across all study samples. CONCLUSIONS: This simple prediction rule accurately identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of short-term mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Prospective validation of this rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid for outpatient treatment.