E-learning initiatives in forensic interpretation: report on experiences from current projects and outlook

This paper reports on the purpose, design, methodology and target audience of E-learning courses in forensic interpretation offered by the authors since 2010, including practical experiences made throughout the implementation period of this project. This initiative was motivated by the fact that reporting results of forensic examinations in a logically correct and scientifically rigorous way is a daily challenge for any forensic practitioner. Indeed, interpretation of raw data and communication of findings in both written and oral statements are topics where knowledge and applied skills are needed. Although most forensic scientists hold educational records in traditional sciences, only few actually followed full courses that focussed on interpretation issues. Such courses should include foundational principles and methodology - including elements of forensic statistics - for the evaluation of forensic data in a way that is tailored to meet the needs of the criminal justice system. In order to help bridge this gap, the authors' initiative seeks to offer educational opportunities that allow practitioners to acquire knowledge and competence in the current approaches to the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings. These cover, among other aspects, probabilistic reasoning (including Bayesian networks and other methods of forensic statistics, tools and software), case pre-assessment, skills in the oral and written communication of uncertainty, and the development of independence and self-confidence to solve practical inference problems. E-learning was chosen as a general format because it helps to form a trans-institutional online-community of practitioners from varying forensic disciplines and workfield experience such as reporting officers, (chief) scientists, forensic coordinators, but also lawyers who all can interact directly from their personal workplaces without consideration of distances, travel expenses or time schedules. In the authors' experience, the proposed learning initiative supports participants in developing their expertise and skills in forensic interpretation, but also offers an opportunity for the associated institutions and the forensic community to reinforce the development of a harmonized view with regard to interpretation across forensic disciplines, laboratories and judicial systems.

Resuming motor vehicle driving following orthopaedic surgery or limb trauma.

Following elective orthopaedic surgery or the treatment of a fracture, patients are temporarily unable to drive. This loss of independence may have serious social and economic consequences for the patient. It is therefore essential to know when it is safe to permit such patients to return to driving. This article, based upon a review of the current literature, proposes recommendations of the time period after which patients may safely return to driving. Practical decisions are made based upon the type of surgical intervention or fracture. Swiss legislation is equally approached so as to better define the decision.

Insight into oversight : how information commissioners contribute to the achievement of access-to-information policy objectives

This thesis examines how oversight bodies, as part of an ATI policy, contribute to the achievement of the policy's objectives. The aim of the thesis is to see how oversight bodies and the work they do affects the implementation of their respective ATI policies and thereby contributes to the objectives of those policies using a comparative case study approach. The thesis investigates how federal/central government level information commissioners in four jurisdictions - Germany, India, Scotland, and Switzerland - enforce their respective ATI policies, which tasks they carry out in addition to their enforcement duties, the challenges they face in their work and the ways they overcome these. Qualitative data were gathered from primary and secondary documents as well as in 37 semi-structured interviews with staff of the commissioners' offices, administrative officials whose job entails complying with ATI, people who have made ATI requests and appealed to their respective oversight body, and external experts who have studied ATI implementation in their particular jurisdiction. The thesis finds that while the aspect of an oversight body's formal independence that has the greatest impact on its work is resource control and that although the powers granted by law set the framework for ensuring that the administration is properly complying with the policy, the commissioner's leadership style - a component of informal independence - has more influence than formal attributes of independence in setting out how resources are obtained and used as well as how staff set priorities and utilize the powers they are granted by law. The conclusion, therefore, is that an ATI oversight body's ability to contribute to the achievement of the policy's objectives is a function of three main factors: a. commissioner's leadership style; b. adequacy of resources and degree of control the organization has over them; c. powers and the exercise of discretion in using them. In effect, the thesis argues that it is difficult to pinpoint the value of the formal powers set out for the oversight body in the ATI law, and that their decisions on whether and how to use them are more important than the presumed strength of the powers. It also claims that the choices made by the commissioners and their staff regarding priorities and use of powers are determined to a large extent by the adequacy of resources and the degree of control the organization has over those resources. In turn, how the head of the organization leads and manages the oversight body is crucial to both the adequacy of the organization's resources and the decisions made about the use of powers. Together, these three factors have a significant impact on the body's effectiveness in contributing to ATI objectives.

Economics of dialysis dependence following renal replacement therapy for critically ill acute kidney injury patients.

BACKGROUND: The obective of this study was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing intermittent with continuous renal replacement therapy (IRRT versus CRRT) as initial therapy for acute kidney injury (AKI) in the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: Assuming some patients would potentially be eligible for either modality, we modeled life year gained, the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare costs for a cohort of 1000 IRRT patients and a cohort of 1000 CRRT patients. We used a 1-year, 5-year and a lifetime horizon. A Markov model with two health states for AKI survivors was designed: dialysis dependence and dialysis independence. We applied Weibull regression from published estimates to fit survival curves for CRRT and IRRT patients and to fit the proportion of dialysis dependence among CRRT and IRRT survivors. We then applied a risk ratio reported in a large retrospective cohort study to the fitted CRRT estimates in order to determine the proportion of dialysis dependence for IRRT survivors. We conducted sensitivity analyses based on a range of differences for daily implementation cost between CRRT and IRRT (base case: CRRT day $632 more expensive than IRRT day; range from $200 to $1000) and a range of risk ratios for dialysis dependence for CRRT as compared with IRRT (from 0.65 to 0.95; base case: 0.80). RESULTS: Continuous renal replacement therapy was associated with a marginally greater gain in QALY as compared with IRRT (1.093 versus 1.078). Despite higher upfront costs for CRRT in the ICU ($4046 for CRRT versus $1423 for IRRT in average), the 5-year total cost including the cost of dialysis dependence was lower for CRRT ($37 780 for CRRT versus $39 448 for IRRT on average). The base case incremental cost-effectiveness analysis showed that CRRT dominated IRRT. This dominance was confirmed by extensive sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Initial CRRT is cost-effective compared with initial IRRT by reducing the rate of long-term dialysis dependence among critically ill AKI survivors.

Estimating biophysical variable dependences with kernels

This paper introduces a nonlinear measure of dependence between random variables in the context of remote sensing data analysis. The Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) is a kernel method for evaluating statistical dependence. HSIC is based on computing the Hilbert-Schmidt norm of the cross-covariance operator of mapped samples in the corresponding Hilbert spaces. The HSIC empirical estimator is very easy to compute and has good theoretical and practical properties. We exploit the capabilities of HSIC to explain nonlinear dependences in two remote sensing problems: temperature estimation and chlorophyll concentration prediction from spectra. Results show that, when the relationship between random variables is nonlinear or when few data are available, the HSIC criterion outperforms other standard methods, such as the linear correlation or mutual information.

Monitoring of biological markers indicative of doping: the athlete biological passport

The athlete biological passport (ABP) was recently implemented in anti-doping work and is based on the individual and longitudinal monitoring of haematological or urine markers. These may be influenced by illicit procedures performed by some athletes with the intent to improve exercise performance. Hence the ABP is a valuable tool in the fight against doping. Actually, the passport has been defined as an individual and longitudinal observation of markers. These markers need to belong to the biological cascade influenced by the application of forbidden hormones or more generally, affected by biological manipulations which can improve the performance of the athlete. So far, the haematological and steroid profile modules of the ABP have been implemented in major sport organisations, and a further module is under development. The individual and longitudinal monitoring of some blood and urine markers are of interest, because the intraindividual variability is lower than the corresponding interindividual variability. Among the key prerequisites for the implementation of the ABP is its prospect to resist to the legal and scientific challenges. The ABP should be implemented in the most transparent way and with the necessary independence between planning, interpretation and result management of the passport. To ensure this, the Athlete Passport Management Unit (APMU) was developed and the WADA implemented different technical documents associated to the passport. This was carried out to ensure the correct implementation of a profile which can also stand the challenge of any scientific or legal criticism. This goal can be reached only by following strictly important steps in the chain of production of the results and in the management of the interpretation of the passport. Various technical documents have been then associated to the guidelines which correspond to the requirements for passport operation. The ABP has been completed very recently by the steroid profile module. As for the haematological module, individual and longitudinal monitoring have been applied and the interpretation cascade is also managed by a specific APMU in a similar way as applied in the haematological module. Thus, after exclusion of any possible pathology, specific variation from the individual norms will be then considered as a potential misuse of hormones or other modulators to enhance performance.

Evidence-Based Recommendations for Optimal Dietary Protein Intake in Older People: A Position Paper From the PROT-AGE Study Group.

New evidence shows that older adults need more dietary protein than do younger adults to support good health, promote recovery from illness, and maintain functionality. Older people need to make up for age-related changes in protein metabolism, such as high splanchnic extraction and declining anabolic responses to ingested protein. They also need more protein to offset inflammatory and catabolic conditions associated with chronic and acute diseases that occur commonly with aging. With the goal of developing updated, evidence-based recommendations for optimal protein intake by older people, the European Union Geriatric Medicine Society (EUGMS), in cooperation with other scientific organizations, appointed an international study group to review dietary protein needs with aging (PROT-AGE Study Group). To help older people (>65 years) maintain and regain lean body mass and function, the PROT-AGE study group recommends average daily intake at least in the range of 1.0 to 1.2 g protein per kilogram of body weight per day. Both endurance- and resistance-type exercises are recommended at individualized levels that are safe and tolerated, and higher protein intake (ie, ≥1.2 g/kg body weight/d) is advised for those who are exercising and otherwise active. Most older adults who have acute or chronic diseases need even more dietary protein (ie, 1.2-1.5 g/kg body weight/d). Older people with severe kidney disease (ie, estimated GFR <30 mL/min/1.73m(2)), but who are not on dialysis, are an exception to this rule; these individuals may need to limit protein intake. Protein quality, timing of ingestion, and intake of other nutritional supplements may be relevant, but evidence is not yet sufficient to support specific recommendations. Older people are vulnerable to losses in physical function capacity, and such losses predict loss of independence, falls, and even mortality. Thus, future studies aimed at pinpointing optimal protein intake in specific populations of older people need to include measures of physical function.

Characteristics and early and long-term outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke and low ejection fraction.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the clinical characteristics of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) ≤ 35% and investigated the association of low EF with early and long-term outcome. METHODS: A total of 2439 patients of the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) were selected. Demographics, risk factors, pre-stroke treatment, and clinical, radiological and metabolic variables in patients with and without low EF were compared. Functional independence (modified Rankin Score ≤ 2) and mortality were recorded 1 week up to 12 months from admission. RESULTS: Low EF patients (n=119) were more commonly men, older, had higher rates of coronary artery disease and atrial fibrillation (AF), and more frequent pretreatment with anticoagulants, antiplatelets and antihypertensive agents. On admission, they presented with higher stroke severity and had lower values of systolic blood pressure, higher heart rate, and worse estimated glomerular filtration rate. Stroke-related disability and death rates were higher in low EF patients during follow-up (19.5% vs. 7.8% at 1 week, and 36.1% vs. 16.5% at 12 months). Increasing age, stroke severity, and AF were independent predictors of one-year mortality in these patients while prior use of statins had a favorable effect on early mortality. CONCLUSIONS: AIS in patients with low EF is associated with older age, cardiac comorbidities, and more severe clinical presentation. Low EF can identify a subset of AIS patients at high risk of early and long-term functional disability and mortality.

The value of adding mirror therapy for upper limb motor recovery of subacute stroke patients: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Upper limb paresis remains a relevant challenge in stroke rehabilitation. AIM: To evaluate if adding mirror therapy (MT) to conventional therapy (CT) can improve motor recovery of the upper limb in subacute stroke patients. DESIGN: Prospective, single-center, single-blind, randomised, controlled trial. SETTING: Subacute stroke patients referred to a Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine Unit between October 2009 and August 2011. POPULATION: Twenty-six subacute stroke patients (time from stroke <4 weeks) with upper limb paresis (Motricity Index â0/00¤ 77). METHODS: Patients were randomly allocated to the MT (N.=13) or to the CT group (N.=13). Both followed a comprehensive rehabilitative treatment. In addition, MT Group had 30 minutes of MT while the CT group had 30 minutes of sham therapy. Action Research Arm Test (ARAT) was the primary outcome measures. Motricity Index (MI) and the Functional Independence Measure (FIM) were the secondary outcome measures. RESULTS: After one month of treatment patients of both groups showed statistically significant improvements in all the variables measured (P<0.05). Moreover patients of the MT group had greater improvements in the ARAT, MI and FIM values compared to CT group (P<0.01, Glass's Î" Effect Size: 1.18). No relevant adverse event was recorded during the study. CONCLUSION: MT is a promising and easy method to improve motor recovery of the upper limb in subacute stroke patients. CLINICAL REHABILITATION IMPACT: While MT use has been advocated for acute patients with no or negligible motor function, it can be usefully extended to patients who show partial motor recovery. The easiness of implementation, the low cost and the acceptability makes this therapy an useful tool in stroke rehabilitation.

Parkinson's disease.

In advanced Parkinson's disease (PD), the emergence of symptoms refractory to conventional therapy poses therapeutic challenges. The success of deep brain stimulation (DBS) and advances in the understanding of the pathophysiology of PD have raised interest in noninvasive brain stimulation as an alternative therapeutic tool. The rationale for its use draws from the concept that reversing abnormalities in brain activity and physiology thought to cause the clinical deficits may restore normal functioning. Currently the best evidence in support of this concept comes from DBS, which improves motor deficits, and modulates brain activity and motor cortex physiology, although whether a causal interaction exists remains largely undetermined. Most trials of noninvasive brain stimulation in PD have applied repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS), targeting the motor cortex. Current studies suggest a possible therapeutic potential for rTMS and transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS), but clinical effects so far have been small and negligible with regard to functional independence and quality of life. Approaches to potentiate the efficacy of rTMS include increasing stimulation intensity and novel stimulation parameters that derive their rationale from studies on brain physiology. These novel parameters are intended to simulate normal firing patterns or to act on the hypothesized role of oscillatory activity in the motor cortex and basal ganglia with regard to motor control and its contribution to the pathogenesis of motor disorders. Noninvasive brain stimulation studies will enhance our understanding of PD pathophysiology and might provide further evidence for potential therapeutic applications.

Official Positions for FRAX® clinical regarding biochemical markers from Joint Official Positions Development Conference of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation on FRAX®.

The best indirect evidence that increased bone turnover contributes to fracture risk is the fact that most of the proven therapies for osteoporosis are inhibitors of bone turnover. The evidence base that we can use biochemical markers of bone turnover in the assessment of fracture risk is somewhat less convincing. This relates to natural variability in the markers, problems with the assays, disparity in the statistical analyses of relevant studies and the independence of their contribution to fracture risk. More research is clearly required to address these deficiencies before biochemical markers might contribute a useful independent risk factor for inclusion in FRAX(®).

Childhood socioeconomic position and objectively measured physical capability levels in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Grip strength, walking speed, chair rising and standing balance time are objective measures of physical capability that characterise current health and predict survival in older populations. Socioeconomic position (SEP) in childhood may influence the peak level of physical capability achieved in early adulthood, thereby affecting levels in later adulthood. We have undertaken a systematic review with meta-analyses to test the hypothesis that adverse childhood SEP is associated with lower levels of objectively measured physical capability in adulthood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Relevant studies published by May 2010 were identified through literature searches using EMBASE and MEDLINE. Unpublished results were obtained from study investigators. Results were provided by all study investigators in a standard format and pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. 19 studies were included in the review. Total sample sizes in meta-analyses ranged from N = 17,215 for chair rise time to N = 1,061,855 for grip strength. Although heterogeneity was detected, there was consistent evidence in age adjusted models that lower childhood SEP was associated with modest reductions in physical capability levels in adulthood: comparing the lowest with the highest childhood SEP there was a reduction in grip strength of 0.13 standard deviations (95% CI: 0.06, 0.21), a reduction in mean walking speed of 0.07 m/s (0.05, 0.10), an increase in mean chair rise time of 6% (4%, 8%) and an odds ratio of an inability to balance for 5s of 1.26 (1.02, 1.55). Adjustment for the potential mediating factors, adult SEP and body size attenuated associations greatly. However, despite this attenuation, for walking speed and chair rise time, there was still evidence of moderate associations. CONCLUSIONS: Policies targeting socioeconomic inequalities in childhood may have additional benefits in promoting the maintenance of independence in later life.

L'incontinence urinaire chez des personnes âgées hospitalisées en unité de gériatrie: est-ce vraiment une priorité pour les infirmières [Urinary incontinence in hospitalized geriatric patients : is it really a priority for nurses?].

INTRODUCTION: urinary incontinence (UI) is a phenomenon with high prevalence in hospitalized elderly patients, effecting up to 70% of patients requiring long term care. However, despite the discomfort it causes and its association with functional decline, it seems to be given insufficient attention by nurses in geriatric care. OBJECTIVES: to assess the prevalence of urinary incontinence in geriatric patients at admission and the level of nurse involvement as characterized by the explicit documentation of UI diagnosis in the patient's record, prescription of nursing intervention, or nursing actions related to UI. METHODS: cross-sectional retrospective chart review. One hundred cases were randomly selected from those patients 65 years or older admitted to the geriatric ward of a university hospital. The variables examined included: total and continence scores on the Measure of Functional Independence (MIF), socio-demographic variables, presence of a nursing diagnosis in the medical record, prescription of or documentation of a nursing intervention related to UI. RESULTS: the prevalence of urinary incontinence was 72 % and UI was positively correlated with a low MIF score, age and status of awaiting placement. Of the examined cases, nursing diagnosis of UI was only documented in 1.4 % of cases, nursing interventions were prescribed in 54 % of cases, and at least one nursing intervention was performed in 72 % of cases. The vast majority of the interventions were palliative. DISCUSSION: the results on the prevalence of IU are similar to those reported in several other studies. This is also the case in relation to nursing interventions. In this study, people with UI were given the same care regardless of their MIF score MIF, age or gender. One limitation of this study is that it is retrospective and therefore dependent on the quality of the nursing documentation. CONCLUSIONS: this study is novel because it examines UI in relation to nursing interventions. It demonstrates that despite a high prevalence of UI, the general level of concern for nurses remains relatively low. Individualized care is desirable and clinical innovations must be developed for primary and secondary prevention of UI during hospitalization.

Impact of physical activity on activity of daily living in moderate to severe dementia: a critical review

The objectives of this study were to describe the different modalities of physical activity programs designed for moderate to severe dementia and to identify their impact on functional independence in activities of daily living (ADL). A critical review of randomized controlled trials related to the impact of physical activity programs in moderately to severely demented persons on ADL performance and meta-analysis of the identified studies were performed. Among the 303 identified articles, five responded to the selection criteria. Four out of the five studies demonstrated limited methodological quality. In one high-quality study, physical activity programs significantly delayed deterioration of ADL performance. The program components and ADL assessment tools vary widely across studies. Although the proposed treatments have not proven their efficiency in improving the ADL status of the patients, they were able to limit the decline in ADL functioning. Future research is warranted in order to identify clinically relevant modalities for physical activity programs for people with moderate to severe dementia.

Conservation of the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in a fragmented landscape - habitat models, dispersal and potential distribution

Abstract: The expansion of a recovering population - whether re-introduced or spontaneously returning - is shaped by (i) biological (intrinsic) factors such as the land tenure system or dispersal, (ii) the distribution and availability of resources (e.g. prey), (iii) habitat and landscape features, and (iv) human attitudes and activities. In order to develop efficient conservation and recovery strategies, we need to understand all these factors and to predict the potential distribution and explore ways to reach it. An increased number of lynx in the north-western Swiss Alps in the nineties lead to a new controversy about the return of this cat. When the large carnivores were given legal protection in many European countries, most organizations and individuals promoting their protection did not foresee the consequences. Management plans describing how to handle conflicts with large predators are needed to find a balance between "overabundance" and extinction. Wildlife and conservation biologists need to evaluate the various threats confronting populations so that adequate management decisions can be taken. I developed a GIS probability model for the lynx, based on habitat information and radio-telemetry data from the Swiss Jura Mountains, in order to predict the potential distribution of the lynx in this mountain range, which is presently only partly occupied by lynx. Three of the 18 variables tested for each square kilometre describing land use, vegetation, and topography, qualified to predict the probability of lynx presence. The resulting map was evaluated with data from dispersing subadult lynx. Young lynx that were not able to establish home ranges in what was identified as good lynx habitat did not survive their first year of independence, whereas the only one that died in good lynx habitat was illegally killed. Radio-telemetry fixes are often used as input data to calibrate habitat models. Radio-telemetry is the only way to gather accurate and unbiased data on habitat use of elusive larger terrestrial mammals. However, it is time consuming and expensive, and can therefore only be applied in limited areas. Habitat models extrapolated over large areas can in turn be problematic, as habitat characteristics and availability may change from one area to the other. I analysed the predictive power of Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) in Switzerland with the lynx as focal species. According to my results, the optimal sampling strategy to predict species distribution in an Alpine area lacking available data would be to pool presence cells from contrasted regions (Jura Mountains, Alps), whereas in regions with a low ecological variance (Jura Mountains), only local presence cells should be used for the calibration of the model. Dispersal influences the dynamics and persistence of populations, the distribution and abundance of species, and gives the communities and ecosystems their characteristic texture in space and time. Between 1988 and 2001, the spatio-temporal behaviour of subadult Eurasian lynx in two re-introduced populations in Switzerland was studied, based on 39 juvenile lynx of which 24 were radio-tagged to understand the factors influencing dispersal. Subadults become independent from their mothers at the age of 8-11 months. No sex bias neither in the dispersal rate nor in the distance moved was detected. Lynx are conservative dispersers, compared to bear and wolf, and settled within or close to known lynx occurrences. Dispersal distances reached in the high lynx density population - shorter than those reported in other Eurasian lynx studies - are limited by habitat restriction hindering connections with neighbouring metapopulations. I postulated that high lynx density would lead to an expansion of the population and validated my predictions with data from the north-western Swiss Alps where about 1995 a strong increase in lynx abundance took place. The general hypothesis that high population density will foster the expansion of the population was not confirmed. This has consequences for the re-introduction and recovery of carnivores in a fragmented landscape. To establish a strong source population in one place might not be an optimal strategy. Rather, population nuclei should be founded in several neighbouring patches. Exchange between established neighbouring subpopulations will later on take place, as adult lynx show a higher propensity to cross barriers than subadults. To estimate the potential population size of the lynx in the Jura Mountains and to assess possible corridors between this population and adjacent areas, I adapted a habitat probability model for lynx distribution in the Jura Mountains with new environmental data and extrapolated it over the entire mountain range. The model predicts a breeding population ranging from 74-101 individuals and from 51-79 individuals when continuous habitat patches < 50 km2 are disregarded. The Jura Mountains could once be part of a metapopulation, as potential corridors exist to the adjoining areas (Alps, Vosges Mountains, and Black Forest). Monitoring of the population size, spatial expansion, and the genetic surveillance in the Jura Mountains must be continued, as the status of the population is still critical. ENFA was used to predict the potential distribution of lynx in the Alps. The resulting model divided the Alps into 37 suitable habitat patches ranging from 50 to 18,711 km2, covering a total area of about 93,600 km2. When using the range of lynx densities found in field studies in Switzerland, the Alps could host a population of 961 to 1,827 residents. The results of the cost-distance analysis revealed that all patches were within the reach of dispersing lynx, as the connection costs were in the range of dispersal cost of radio-tagged subadult lynx moving through unfavorable habitat. Thus, the whole Alps could once be considered as a metapopulation. But experience suggests that only few disperser will cross unsuitable areas and barriers. This low migration rate may seldom allow the spontaneous foundation of new populations in unsettled areas. As an alternative to natural dispersal, artificial transfer of individuals across the barriers should be considered. Wildlife biologists can play a crucial role in developing adaptive management experiments to help managers learning by trial. The case of the lynx in Switzerland is a good example of a fruitful cooperation between wildlife biologists, managers, decision makers and politician in an adaptive management process. This cooperation resulted in a Lynx Management Plan which was implemented in 2000 and updated in 2004 to give the cantons directives on how to handle lynx-related problems. This plan was put into practice e.g. in regard to translocation of lynx into unsettled areas. Résumé: L'expansion d'une population en phase de recolonisation, qu'elle soit issue de réintroductions ou d'un retour naturel dépend 1) de facteurs biologiques tels que le système social et le mode de dispersion, 2) de la distribution et la disponibilité des ressources (proies), 3) de l'habitat et des éléments du paysage, 4) de l'acceptation de l'espèce par la population locale et des activités humaines. Afin de pouvoir développer des stratégies efficaces de conservation et de favoriser la recolonisation, chacun de ces facteurs doit être pris en compte. En plus, la distribution potentielle de l'espèce doit pouvoir être déterminée et enfin, toutes les possibilités pour atteindre les objectifs, examinées. La phase de haute densité que la population de lynx a connue dans les années nonante dans le nord-ouest des Alpes suisses a donné lieu à une controverse assez vive. La protection du lynx dans de nombreux pays européens, promue par différentes organisations, a entraîné des conséquences inattendues; ces dernières montrent que tout plan de gestion doit impérativement indiquer des pistes quant à la manière de gérer les conflits, tout en trouvant un équilibre entre l'extinction et la surabondance de l'espèce. Les biologistes de la conservation et de la faune sauvage doivent pour cela évaluer les différents risques encourus par les populations de lynx, afin de pouvoir rapidement prendre les meilleuresmdécisions de gestion. Un modèle d'habitat pour le lynx, basé sur des caractéristiques de l'habitat et des données radio télémétriques collectées dans la chaîne du Jura, a été élaboré afin de prédire la distribution potentielle dans cette région, qui n'est que partiellement occupée par l'espèce. Trois des 18 variables testées, décrivant pour chaque kilomètre carré l'utilisation du sol, la végétation ainsi que la topographie, ont été retenues pour déterminer la probabilité de présence du lynx. La carte qui en résulte a été comparée aux données télémétriques de lynx subadultes en phase de dispersion. Les jeunes qui n'ont pas pu établir leur domaine vital dans l'habitat favorable prédit par le modèle n'ont pas survécu leur première année d'indépendance alors que le seul individu qui est mort dans l'habitat favorable a été braconné. Les données radio-télémétriques sont souvent utilisées pour l'étalonnage de modèles d'habitat. C'est un des seuls moyens à disposition qui permette de récolter des données non biaisées et précises sur l'occupation de l'habitat par des mammifères terrestres aux moeurs discrètes. Mais ces méthodes de- mandent un important investissement en moyens financiers et en temps et peuvent, de ce fait, n'être appliquées qu'à des zones limitées. Les modèles d'habitat sont ainsi souvent extrapolés à de grandes surfaces malgré le risque d'imprécision, qui résulte des variations des caractéristiques et de la disponibilité de l'habitat d'une zone à l'autre. Le pouvoir de prédiction de l'Analyse Ecologique de la Niche (AEN) dans les zones où les données de présence n'ont pas été prises en compte dans le calibrage du modèle a été analysée dans le cas du lynx en Suisse. D'après les résultats obtenus, la meilleure mé- thode pour prédire la distribution du lynx dans une zone alpine dépourvue d'indices de présence est de combiner des données provenant de régions contrastées (Alpes, Jura). Par contre, seules les données sur la présence locale de l'espèce doivent être utilisées pour les zones présentant une faible variance écologique tel que le Jura. La dispersion influence la dynamique et la stabilité des populations, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces et détermine les caractéristiques spatiales et temporelles des communautés vivantes et des écosystèmes. Entre 1988 et 2001, le comportement spatio-temporel de lynx eurasiens subadultes de deux populations réintroduites en Suisse a été étudié, basé sur le suivi de 39 individus juvéniles dont 24 étaient munis d'un collier émetteur, afin de déterminer les facteurs qui influencent la dispersion. Les subadultes se sont séparés de leur mère à l'âge de 8 à 11 mois. Le sexe n'a pas eu d'influence sur le nombre d'individus ayant dispersés et la distance parcourue au cours de la dispersion. Comparé à l'ours et au loup, le lynx reste très modéré dans ses mouvements de dispersion. Tous les individus ayant dispersés se sont établis à proximité ou dans des zones déjà occupées par des lynx. Les distances parcourues lors de la dispersion ont été plus courtes pour la population en phase de haute densité que celles relevées par les autres études de dispersion du lynx eurasien. Les zones d'habitat peu favorables et les barrières qui interrompent la connectivité entre les populations sont les principales entraves aux déplacements, lors de la dispersion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons fait l'hypothèse que les phases de haute densité favorisaient l'expansion des populations. Mais cette hypothèse a été infirmée par les résultats issus du suivi des lynx réalisé dans le nord-ouest des Alpes, où la population connaissait une phase de haute densité depuis 1995. Ce constat est important pour la conservation d'une population de carnivores dans un habitat fragmenté. Ainsi, instaurer une forte population source à un seul endroit n'est pas forcément la stratégie la plus judicieuse. Il est préférable d'établir des noyaux de populations dans des régions voisines où l'habitat est favorable. Des échanges entre des populations avoisinantes pourront avoir lieu par la suite car les lynx adultes sont plus enclins à franchir les barrières qui entravent leurs déplacements que les individus subadultes. Afin d'estimer la taille de la population de lynx dans le Jura et de déterminer les corridors potentiels entre cette région et les zones avoisinantes, un modèle d'habitat a été utilisé, basé sur un nouveau jeu de variables environnementales et extrapolé à l'ensemble du Jura. Le modèle prédit une population reproductrice de 74 à 101 individus et de 51 à 79 individus lorsque les surfaces d'habitat d'un seul tenant de moins de 50 km2 sont soustraites. Comme des corridors potentiels existent effectivement entre le Jura et les régions avoisinantes (Alpes, Vosges, et Forêt Noire), le Jura pourrait faire partie à l'avenir d'une métapopulation, lorsque les zones avoisinantes seront colonisées par l'espèce. La surveillance de la taille de la population, de son expansion spatiale et de sa structure génétique doit être maintenue car le statut de cette population est encore critique. L'AEN a également été utilisée pour prédire l'habitat favorable du lynx dans les Alpes. Le modèle qui en résulte divise les Alpes en 37 sous-unités d'habitat favorable dont la surface varie de 50 à 18'711 km2, pour une superficie totale de 93'600 km2. En utilisant le spectre des densités observées dans les études radio-télémétriques effectuées en Suisse, les Alpes pourraient accueillir une population de lynx résidents variant de 961 à 1'827 individus. Les résultats des analyses de connectivité montrent que les sous-unités d'habitat favorable se situent à des distances telles que le coût de la dispersion pour l'espèce est admissible. L'ensemble des Alpes pourrait donc un jour former une métapopulation. Mais l'expérience montre que très peu d'individus traverseront des habitats peu favorables et des barrières au cours de leur dispersion. Ce faible taux de migration rendra difficile toute nouvelle implantation de populations dans des zones inoccupées. Une solution alternative existe cependant : transférer artificiellement des individus d'une zone à l'autre. Les biologistes spécialistes de la faune sauvage peuvent jouer un rôle important et complémentaire pour les gestionnaires de la faune, en les aidant à mener des expériences de gestion par essai. Le cas du lynx en Suisse est un bel exemple d'une collaboration fructueuse entre biologistes de la faune sauvage, gestionnaires, organes décisionnaires et politiciens. Cette coopération a permis l'élaboration du Concept Lynx Suisse qui est entré en vigueur en 2000 et remis à jour en 2004. Ce plan donne des directives aux cantons pour appréhender la problématique du lynx. Il y a déjà eu des applications concrètes sur le terrain, notamment par des translocations d'individus dans des zones encore inoccupées.