A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Chromosomal number aberrations and transformation in adult mouse retinal stem cells in vitro.

PURPOSE: The potential of stem cells (SCs) as a source for cell-based therapy on a wide range of degenerative diseases and damaged tissues such as retinal degeneration has been recognized. Generation of a high number of retinal stem cells (RSCs) in vitro would thus be beneficial for transplantation in the retina. However, as cells in prolonged cultivation may be unstable and thus have a risk of transformation, it is important to assess the stability of these cells. METHODS: Chromosomal aberrations were analyzed in mouse RSC lines isolated from adult and from postnatal day (PN)1 mouse retinas. Moreover, selected cell lines were tested for anchorage-dependent proliferation, and SCs were transplanted into immunocompromised mice to assess the possibility of transformation. RESULTS: Marked aneuploidy occurred in all adult cell lines, albeit to different degrees, and neonatal RSCs were the most stable and displayed a normal karyotype until at least passage 9. Of interest, the level of aneuploidy of adult RSCs did not necessarily correlate with cell transformation. Only the adult RSC lines passaged for longer periods and with a higher dilution ratio underwent transformation. Furthermore, we identified several cell cycle proteins that might support the continuous proliferation and transformation of the cells. CONCLUSIONS: Adult RSCs rapidly accumulated severe chromosomal aberrations during cultivation, which led to cell transformation in some cell lines. The culture condition plays an important role in supporting the selection and growth of transformed cells.

Existential values transformation in all organ transplantation: A qualitative prospective study.

Organ transplantation offers a treatment of choice for patients suffering from end stage illnesses. The aim of this IRB approved prospective qualitative study was to analyze patients’ psychological concerns from their inclusion on the waiting list for first organ transplantation (TX) (T1; N=71; kidney, K=30; liver, Li=11; lung, Lu=15; heart, H=15) and six months after TX (T2; N=49; K=15; Li=10; Lu=14; H=10). Semi-structured interviews were conducted at home or in a place selected by patients. Qualitative pattern analysis (QUAPA) of the verbatim transcriptions was applied. T1 (K) Patients maintained an apparent normality (87%), building emotional protection (23%), and developing a fatalist attitude towards life (43%). (Li) Physical limits were set to spare energy until TX (73%). Illness led to reevaluation of life values (66%). (Lu) Physical and psychological self-protection was prioritized when health declined (67%). Modified life values, fatalism (33%) and spirituality (27 %) were mentioned. (H) Patients husbanded physical (80%) and psychological (67%) resources and self-protection. Modified life values and fatalist attitude towards life were reported (40%). T2 (K) New perspective on life was described, with increase of empathy towards others (20%). (Li) Positive identity and life values modifications (60%), greater openness towards others, closeness to significant ones (30%) and a more self-centered attitude (30%) prioritizing the essential (20%) were reported. Lack of respect of life values generated anger (40%). (Lu) Setting existential priorities and increase in spirituality (64%), along with the development of new life values, greater openness to others (57%) and closeness to significant ones (21%) were underlined. Lack of respect of human values induced negative feelings (36%). Self-centered attitudes, setting limits to other people were mentioned (29%). (H) Change in life values with setting life priorities was reported (70%) with increase in spirituality, and the lack of respect of life values generated anger (50%). Self-centered attitudes were reported (60%). TX not only comes with positive physical benefits, but also with positive existential values and psychological transformation, and the development of a more altruistic attitude and humanistic values.

Lymphoblastic transformation of follicular lymphoma: a clinicopathologic and molecular analysis of 7 patients.

Approximately 30% of patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) transform to a more aggressive malignancy, most commonly diffuse large B cell lymphoma. Rarely, FL transformation results in clinical findings, histology, and immunophenotype reminiscent of B-lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma. We report the largest series to date with detailed analysis of 7 such patients. Lymphoblastic transformation occurred on average 2 years after initial diagnosis of FL. Five patients had prior intensive chemotherapy. Two patients developed mature high-grade lymphoma, followed by the lymphoblastic transformation. FL had BCL2 gene rearrangement in 4 of 5 cases. High-grade transformation was accompanied by MYC gene rearrangement (5 of 5). Transformation was characterized by expression of TdT, loss of Bcl6, variable loss of immunoglobulin light chain, and persistence of Pax-5, Bcl2, and CD10. Whole-exome sequencing in 1 case revealed presence of several actionable mutations (CD79B, CCND3, CDK12). FL, aggressive mature B cell lymphoma, and lymphoblastic transformation were clonally related in 6 evaluable cases. After transformation, survival ranged from 1 to 14 months. Four patients died of disease, 2 were in remission after stem cell transplant, and 1 was alive with disease.

Décrire et convaincre: rhétoriques visuelles de la cinématographie en médecine [Describe and convince: visual rhetoric of cinematography in medicine]

The tools of visualisation occupy a central place in medicine. Far from being simple accessories of glance, they literally constitute objects of medicine. Such empirical acknowledgement and epistemological position open a vast field of investigation: visual technologies of medical knowledge. This article studies the development and transformation of medical objects which have permitted to assess the role of temporality in the epistemology of medicine. It firstly examines the general problem of the relationships between cinema, animated image and medicine and secondly, the contribution of the German doctor Martin Weiser to medical cinematography as a method. Finally, a typology is sketched out organising the variety of the visual technology of movement under the perspective of the development of specific visual techniques in medicine.

The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.