A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

The Formal Independence of Regulators: A Comparison of 17 Countries and 7 Sectors

This article seeks to explain the pattern of delegation to independent regulatory agencies in Western Europe. Two types of arguments are advanced to explain variations in the formal independence of regulators. Firstly, the need for governments to increase their credible commitment capacity may lead them to delegate regulation to an agency that is partly beyond their direct control. Secondly, delegation may be a response to the political uncertainty problem, which arises when governments are afraid of being replaced by another coalition with different preferences, which could decide to change existing policy choices. In addition, veto players may constitute a functional equivalent of delegation, since they influence policy stability and therefore tend to mitigate both the credibility and the political uncertainty problems. These arguments are consistent with the results of the empirical analysis of the formal independence of regulators in seventeen countries and seven sectors.

The Management of Patients on Oral Anticoagulation Undergoing Coronary Stent Implantation: A Survey among Interventional Cardiologists from Eight European Countries.

Purpose:  To evaluate the current management, and adherence to recommendations, of patients on oral anticoagulation (OAC) undergoing coronary stent implantation (PCI-S). Methods:  By means of a contact person who had been previously identified in 8 European countries, a questionnaire was electronically forwarded between April and July 2010 to the national institutions where PCI-S is performed. Results:  A total of  202 questionnaires (median response rate: 50%, range 33-78%) was received. The prevalence of OAC patients among those undergoing PCI-S is mostly reported 5-10% (97%). The peri-procedural pharmacological management mostly encompasses: preprocedural OAC interruption and bridging with low-molecular-weight heparin (59%), intraprocedural administration of an unfractionated heparin bolus (81%), and use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors on an individual basis (79%). The radial approach is reported as the preferred option (58%), as well as the implantation of bare metal stents (76%). Triple therapy (warfarin, aspirin, clopidogrel) is the most frequently prescribed (80%), generally for 1 month after bare metal stent (77%) and for at least 12 months after drug-eluting stent (60%). Throughout triple therapy, the International Normalized Ratio is mostly targeted to the lower end of the therapeutic range (77%), and gastric protection is routinely prescribed (69%), mostly by giving proton-pump inhibitors (70%). Conclusions:  Among the 202 interventional cardiologists from the 8 European countries interviewed, the management of patients on OAC undergoing PCI-S appears variable and only partially adherent to currently available recommendations. (J Interven Cardiol 2012;25:163-169).

Older people's views of falls-prevention interventions in six European countries.

PURPOSE: Our study identified factors common to a variety of populations and settings that may promote or inhibit uptake and adherence to falls-related interventions. DESIGN AND METHODS: Semistructured interviews to assess perceived advantages and barriers to taking part in falls-related interventions were carried out in six European countries with 69 people aged 68 to 97 years. The sample was selected to include people with very different experiences of participation or nonparticipation in falls-related interventions, but all individuals were asked about interventions that included strength and balance training. RESULTS: Attitudes were similar in all countries and contexts. People were motivated to participate in strength and balance training by a wide range of perceived benefits (interest and enjoyment, improved health, mood, and independence) and not just reduction of falling risk. Participation also was encouraged by a personal invitation from a health practitioner and social approval from family and friends. Barriers to participation included denial of falling risk, the belief that no additional falls-prevention measures were necessary, practical barriers to attendance at groups (e.g., transport, effort, and cost), and a dislike of group activities. IMPLICATIONS: Because many older people reject the idea that they are at risk of falling, the uptake of strength and balance training programs may be promoted more effectively by maximizing and emphasizing their multiple positive benefits for health and well-being. A personal invitation from a health professional to participate is important, and it also may be helpful to provide home-based programs for those who dislike or find it difficult to attend groups.

Body mass index, abdominal adiposity and blood pressure: consistency of their association across developing and developed countries.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is increasing worldwide because developing countries are adopting Western high-fat foods and sedentary lifestyles. In parallel, in many of them, hypertension is rising more rapidly, particularly with age, than in Western countries. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between adiposity and blood pressure (BP) in a developing country with high average BP (The Seychelles, Indian Ocean, population mainly of African origin) in comparison to a developed country with low average BP (Switzerland, population mainly of Caucasian origin). DESIGN: Cross-sectional health examination surveys based on population random samples. SETTING: The main Seychelles island (Mahé) and two Swiss regions (Vaud-Fribourg and Ticino). SUBJECTS: Three thousand one hundred and sixteen adults (age range 35-64) untreated for hypertension. MEASUREMENTS: Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, mean of two measures). METHODS: Scatterplot smoothing techniques and gender-specific linear regression models. RESULTS: On average, SBP and DBP were found to increase linearly over the whole variation range of BMI, WHR and WC. A modest, but statistically significant linear association was found between each indicator of adiposity and BP levels in separate regression models controlling for age. The regression coefficients were not significantly different between the Seychelles and the two Swiss regions, but were generally higher in women than in men. For the latter, a gain of 1.7 kg/m(2) in BMI, of 4.5 cm in WC or of 3.4% in WHR corresponded to an elevation of 1 mmHg in SBP. For women, corresponding figures were 1.25 kg/m(2), 2.5 cm and 1.8% respectively. Regression coefficients for age reflected a higher effect of this variable on both SBP and DBP in the Seychelles than in Switzerland. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest a stable linear relation of adiposity with BP, independent of age and body fat distribution, across developed and developing countries. The more rapid increase of BP with age observed in the latter countries are likely to reflect higher genetic susceptibility and/or higher cumulative exposure to another risk factor than adiposity.