Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Determination of DNA persistence length by cryo-electron microscopy. Separation of the static and dynamic contributions to the apparent persistence length of DNA.

Axial deflection of DNA molecules in solution results from thermal motion and intrinsic curvature related to the DNA sequence. In order to measure directly the contribution of thermal motion we constructed intrinsically straight DNA molecules and measured their persistence length by cryo-electron microscopy. The persistence length of such intrinsically straight DNA molecules suspended in thin layers of cryo-vitrified solutions is about 80 nm. In order to test our experimental approach, we measured the apparent persistence length of DNA molecules with natural "random" sequences. The result of about 45 nm is consistent with the generally accepted value of the apparent persistence length of natural DNA sequences. By comparing the apparent persistence length to intrinsically straight DNA with that of natural DNA, it is possible to determine both the dynamic and the static contributions to the apparent persistence length.

Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional) scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal), and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy). The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R), developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise mainly from the models applied and analysis scale, which are neglecting local controlling factors of debris flow hazard. The presented approach of debris flow hazard analysis, associating automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading, provided results for consequent hazard and risk studies. However, for the validation and transferability of the parameters and results to other study areas, more testing is needed.

Dynamic responses of oxygen uptake at the onset and end of moderate and heavy exercise in trained subjects.

Inconsistencies about dynamic asymmetry between the on- and off-transient responses in VO2 are found in the literature. Therefore the purpose of this study was to examine VO2 on- and off-transients during moderate- and heavy-intensity cycling exercise in trained subjects. Ten men underwent an initial incremental test for the estimation of ventilatory threshold (VT) and, on different days, two bouts of square-wave exercise at moderate (<VT) and heavy (>VT) intensities. VO2 kinetics in exercise and recovery were better described by a single exponential model (<VT), or by a double exponential with two time delays (>VT). For moderate exercise, we found a symmetry of VO2 kinetics between the on- and off-transients (i.e., fundamental component), consistent with a system manifesting linear control dynamics. For heavy exercise, a slow component superimposed on the fundamental phase was expressed in both the exercise and recovery, with similar parameter estimates. But the on-transient values of the time constant were appreciably faster than the associated off-transient, and independent of the work rate imposed (<VT and >VT). Our results do not support a dynamically linear system model of VO2 during cycling exercise in the heavy-intensity domain.

Dynamic responses of O2 uptake at the onset and end of exercise in trained subjects.

Inconsistencies about dynamic asymmetry between the on- and off-transient responses in .VO2 are found in the literature. Therefore the purpose of this study was to examine .VO2on- and off-transients during moderate- and heavy-intensity cycling exercise in trained subjects. Ten men underwent an initial incremental test for the estimation of ventilatory threshold (VT) and, on different days, two bouts of square-wave exercise at moderate (<VT) and heavy (>VT) intensities. .VO2 kinetics in exercise and recovery were better described by a single exponential model (<VT) or by a double exponential with two time delays (>VT). For moderate exercise, we found a symmetry of .VO2 kinetics between the on- and off-transients (i.e., fundamental component), consistent with a system manifesting linear control dynamics. For heavy exercise, a slow component superimposed on the fundamental phase was expressed in both the exercise and recovery, with similar parameter estimates. But the on-transient values of the time constant were appreciably faster than the associated off-transient, and independent of the work rate imposed (<VT and >VT). Our results do not support a dynamically linear system model of .VO2 during cycling exercise in the heavy-intensity domain.

Do peroxisome proliferating compounds pose a hepatocarcinogenic hazard to humans?

The purpose of the workshop "Do Peroxisome Proliferating Compounds Pose a Hepatocarcinogenic Hazard to Humans?" was to provide a review of the current state of the science on the relationship between peroxisome proliferation and hepatocarcinogenesis. There has been much debate regarding the mechanism by which peroxisome proliferators may induce liver tumors in rats and mice and whether these events occur in humans. A primary goal of the workshop was to determine where consensus might be reached regarding the interpretation of these data relative to the assessment of potential human risks. A core set of biochemical and cellular events has been identified in the rodent strains that are susceptible to the hepatocarcinogenic effects of peroxisome proliferators, including peroxisome proliferation, increases in fatty acyl-CoA oxidase levels, microsomal fatty acid oxidation, excess production of hydrogen peroxide, increases in rates of cell proliferation, and expression and activation of the alpha subtype of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR-alpha). Such effects have not been identified clinically in liver biopsies from humans exposed to peroxisome proliferators or in in vitro studies with human hepatocytes, although PPAR-alpha is expressed at a very low level in human liver. Consensus was reached regarding the significant intermediary roles of cell proliferation and PPAR-alpha receptor expression and activation in tumor formation. Information considered necessary for characterizing a compound as a peroxisome proliferating hepatocarcinogen include hepatomegaly, enhanced cell proliferation, and an increase in hepatic acyl-CoA oxidase and/or palmitoyl-CoA oxidation levels. Given the lack of genotoxic potential of most peroxisome proliferating agents, and since humans appear likely to be refractive or insensitive to the tumorigenic response, risk assessments based on tumor data may not be appropriate. However, nontumor data on intermediate endpoints would provide appropriate toxicological endpoints to determine a point of departure such as the LED10 or NOAEL which would be the basis for a margin-of-exposure (MOE) risk assessment approach. Pertinent factors to be considered in the MOE evaluation would include the slope of the dose-response curve at the point of departure, the background exposure levels, and variability in the human response.

Kinematics and dynamic complexity of postural transitions in frail elderly subjects.

The aim of this study was to propose a methodology allowing a detailed characterization of body sit-to-stand/stand-to-sit postural transition. Parameters characterizing the kinematics of the trunk movement during sit-to-stand (Si-St) postural transition were calculated using one initial sensor system fixed on the trunk and a data logger. Dynamic complexity of these postural transitions was estimated by fractal dimension of acceleration-angular velocity plot. We concluded that this method provides a simple and accurate tool for monitoring frail elderly and to objectively evaluate the efficacy of a rehabilitation program.

Update of the FANTOM web resource: from mammalian transcriptional landscape to its dynamic regulation.

The international Functional Annotation Of the Mammalian Genomes 4 (FANTOM4) research collaboration set out to better understand the transcriptional network that regulates macrophage differentiation and to uncover novel components of the transcriptome employing a series of high-throughput experiments. The primary and unique technique is cap analysis of gene expression (CAGE), sequencing mRNA 5'-ends with a second-generation sequencer to quantify promoter activities even in the absence of gene annotation. Additional genome-wide experiments complement the setup including short RNA sequencing, microarray gene expression profiling on large-scale perturbation experiments and ChIP-chip for epigenetic marks and transcription factors. All the experiments are performed in a differentiation time course of the THP-1 human leukemic cell line. Furthermore, we performed a large-scale mammalian two-hybrid (M2H) assay between transcription factors and monitored their expression profile across human and mouse tissues with qRT-PCR to address combinatorial effects of regulation by transcription factors. These interdependent data have been analyzed individually and in combination with each other and are published in related but distinct papers. We provide all data together with systematic annotation in an integrated view as resource for the scientific community (http://fantom.gsc.riken.jp/4/). Additionally, we assembled a rich set of derived analysis results including published predicted and validated regulatory interactions. Here we introduce the resource and its update after the initial release.