Evaluation of adding a second marker to overcome Staphylococcus aureus spa typing homoplasies.

The utility of sequencing a second highly variable locus in addition to the spa gene (e.g., double-locus sequence typing [DLST]) was investigated to overcome limitations of a Staphylococcus aureus single-locus typing method. Although adding a second locus seemed to increase discriminatory power, it was not sufficient to definitively infer evolutionary relationships within a single multilocus sequence type (ST-5).

Substantial advantage of a combined Bayesian and genotyping approach in testosterone doping tests.

Testosterone abuse is conventionally assessed by the urinary testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio, levels above 4.0 being considered suspicious. A deletion polymorphism in the gene coding for UGT2B17 is strongly associated with reduced testosterone glucuronide (TG) levels in urine. Many of the individuals devoid of the gene would not reach a T/E ratio of 4.0 after testosterone intake. Future test programs will most likely shift from population based- to individual-based T/E cut-off ratios using Bayesian inference. A longitudinal analysis is dependent on an individual's true negative baseline T/E ratio. The aim was to investigate whether it is possible to increase the sensitivity and specificity of the T/E test by addition of UGT2B17 genotype information in a Bayesian framework. A single intramuscular dose of 500mg testosterone enanthate was given to 55 healthy male volunteers with either two, one or no allele (ins/ins, ins/del or del/del) of the UGT2B17 gene. Urinary excretion of TG and the T/E ratio was measured during 15 days. The Bayesian analysis was conducted to calculate the individual T/E cut-off ratio. When adding the genotype information, the program returned lower individual cut-off ratios in all del/del subjects increasing the sensitivity of the test considerably. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to discriminate between a true negative baseline T/E value and a false negative one without knowledge of the UGT2B17 genotype. UGT2B17 genotype information is crucial, both to decide which initial cut-off ratio to use for an individual, and for increasing the sensitivity of the Bayesian analysis.

Estimating the basic reproductive number from viral sequence data.

Epidemiological processes leave a fingerprint in the pattern of genetic structure of virus populations. Here, we provide a new method to infer epidemiological parameters directly from viral sequence data. The method is based on phylogenetic analysis using a birth-death model (BDM) rather than the commonly used coalescent as the model for the epidemiological transmission of the pathogen. Using the BDM has the advantage that transmission and death rates are estimated independently and therefore enables for the first time the estimation of the basic reproductive number of the pathogen using only sequence data, without further assumptions like the average duration of infection. We apply the method to genetic data of the HIV-1 epidemic in Switzerland.

Scalable inference of heterogeneous reaction kinetics from pooled single-cell recordings.

Mathematical methods combined with measurements of single-cell dynamics provide a means to reconstruct intracellular processes that are only partly or indirectly accessible experimentally. To obtain reliable reconstructions, the pooling of measurements from several cells of a clonal population is mandatory. However, cell-to-cell variability originating from diverse sources poses computational challenges for such process reconstruction. We introduce a scalable Bayesian inference framework that properly accounts for population heterogeneity. The method allows inference of inaccessible molecular states and kinetic parameters; computation of Bayes factors for model selection; and dissection of intrinsic, extrinsic and technical noise. We show how additional single-cell readouts such as morphological features can be included in the analysis. We use the method to reconstruct the expression dynamics of a gene under an inducible promoter in yeast from time-lapse microscopy data.

A species delimitation approach in the Trochulus sericeus/hispidus complex reveals two cryptic species within a sharp contact zone.

BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial DNA sequencing increasingly results in the recognition of genetically divergent, but morphologically cryptic lineages. Species delimitation approaches that rely on multiple lines of evidence in areas of co-occurrence are particularly powerful to infer their specific status. We investigated the species boundaries of two cryptic lineages of the land snail genus Trochulus in a contact zone, using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA marker as well as shell morphometrics. RESULTS: Both mitochondrial lineages have a distinct geographical distribution with a small zone of co-occurrence. In the same area, we detected two nuclear genotype clusters, each being highly significantly associated to one mitochondrial lineage. This association however had exceptions: a small number of individuals in the contact zone showed intermediate genotypes (4%) or cytonuclear disequilibrium (12%). Both mitochondrial lineage and nuclear cluster were statistically significant predictors for the shell shape indicating morphological divergence. Nevertheless, the lineage morphospaces largely overlapped (low posterior classification success rate of 69% and 78%, respectively): the two lineages are truly cryptic. CONCLUSION: The integrative approach using multiple lines of evidence supported the hypothesis that the investigated Trochulus lineages are reproductively isolated species. In the small contact area, however, the lineages hybridise to a limited extent. This detection of a hybrid zone adds an instance to the rare reported cases of hybridisation in land snails.

PyRate: a new program to estimate speciation and extinction rates from incomplete fossil data

Despite the advancement of phylogenetic methods to estimate speciation and extinction rates, their power can be limited under variable rates, in particular for clades with high extinction rates and small number of extant species. Fossil data can provide a powerful alternative source of information to investigate diversification processes. Here, we present PyRate, a computer program to estimate speciation and extinction rates and their temporal dynamics from fossil occurrence data. The rates are inferred in a Bayesian framework and are comparable to those estimated from phylogenetic trees. We describe how PyRate can be used to explore different models of diversification. In addition to the diversification rates, it provides estimates of the parameters of the preservation process (fossilization and sampling) and the times of speciation and extinction of each species in the data set. Moreover, we develop a new birth-death model to correlate the variation of speciation/extinction rates with changes of a continuous trait. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for model selection and show how the posterior estimates of a PyRate analysis can be used to generate calibration densities for Bayesian molecular clock analysis. PyRate is an open-source command-line Python program available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/pyrate/.

Inflammatory markers and incident heart failure risk in older adults: the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between inflammation and heart failure (HF) risk in older adults. BACKGROUND: Inflammation is associated with HF risk factors and also directly affects myocardial function. METHODS: The association of baseline serum concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and C-reactive protein (CRP) with incident HF was assessed with Cox models among 2,610 older persons without prevalent HF enrolled in the Health ABC (Health, Aging, and Body Composition) study (age 73.6 +/- 2.9 years; 48.3% men; 59.6% white). RESULTS: During follow-up (median 9.4 years), HF developed in 311 (11.9%) participants. In models controlling for clinical characteristics, ankle-arm index, and incident coronary heart disease, doubling of IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and CRP concentrations was associated with 29% (95% confidence interval: 13% to 47%; p < 0.001), 46% (95% confidence interval: 17% to 84%; p = 0.001), and 9% (95% confidence interval: -1% to 24%; p = 0.087) increase in HF risk, respectively. In models including all 3 markers, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, but not CRP, remained significant. These associations were similar across sex and race and persisted in models accounting for death as a competing event. Post-HF ejection fraction was available in 239 (76.8%) cases; inflammatory markers had stronger association with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Repeat IL-6 and CRP determinations at 1-year follow-up did not provide incremental information. Addition of IL-6 to the clinical Health ABC HF model improved model discrimination (C index from 0.717 to 0.734; p = 0.001) and fit (decreased Bayes information criterion by 17.8; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory markers are associated with HF risk among older adults and may improve HF risk stratification.

Analysis of dyes in illicit pills (amphetamine and derivatives)

The determination of dyes present in illicit pills is shown to be useful and easy-to-get information in strategic and tactical drug intelligence. An analytical strategy including solid-phase extraction (SPE) thin-layer chromatography (TLC) and capillary zone electrophoresis equipped with a diode array detector (CZE-DAD) was developed to identify and quantify 14 hydrosoluble, acidic, synthetic food dyes allowed in the European Community. Indeed, these may be the most susceptible dyes to be found in illicit pills through their availability and easiness of use. The results show (1) that this analytical method is well adapted to small samples such as illicit pills, (2) that most dyes actually found belong to hydrosoluble, acidic, synthetic food dyes allowed in the European Community, and (3) that this evidence turns out to be important in drug intelligence and may be assessed into a Bayesian framework.

The evolutionary host switches of Polychromophilus: a multi-gene phylogeny of the bat malaria genus suggests a second invasion of mammals by a haemosporidian parasite.

BACKGROUND: The majority of Haemosporida species infect birds or reptiles, but many important genera, including Plasmodium, infect mammals. Dipteran vectors shared by avian, reptilian and mammalian Haemosporida, suggest multiple invasions of Mammalia during haemosporidian evolution; yet, phylogenetic analyses have detected only a single invasion event. Until now, several important mammal-infecting genera have been absent in these analyses. This study focuses on the evolutionary origin of Polychromophilus, a unique malaria genus that only infects bats (Microchiroptera) and is transmitted by bat flies (Nycteribiidae). METHODS: Two species of Polychromophilus were obtained from wild bats caught in Switzerland. These were molecularly characterized using four genes (asl, clpc, coI, cytb) from the three different genomes (nucleus, apicoplast, mitochondrion). These data were then combined with data of 60 taxa of Haemosporida available in GenBank. Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood and a range of rooting methods were used to test specific hypotheses concerning the phylogenetic relationships between Polychromophilus and the other haemosporidian genera. RESULTS: The Polychromophilus melanipherus and Polychromophilus murinus samples show genetically distinct patterns and group according to species. The Bayesian tree topology suggests that the monophyletic clade of Polychromophilus falls within the avian/saurian clade of Plasmodium and directed hypothesis testing confirms the Plasmodium origin. CONCLUSION: Polychromophilus' ancestor was most likely a bird- or reptile-infecting Plasmodium before it switched to bats. The invasion of mammals as hosts has, therefore, not been a unique event in the evolutionary history of Haemosporida, despite the suspected costs of adapting to a new host. This was, moreover, accompanied by a switch in dipteran host.

From the Apennines to the Alps: colonization genetics of the naturally expanding Italian wolf (Canis lupus) population

Wolves in Italy strongly declined in the past and were confined south of the Alps since the turn of the last century, reduced in the 1970s to approximately 100 individuals surviving in two fragmented subpopulations in the central-southern Apennines. The Italian wolves are presently expanding in the Apennines, and started to recolonize the western Alps in Italy, France and Switzerland about 16 years ago. In this study, we used a population genetic approach to elucidate some aspects of the wolf recolonization process. DNA extracted from 3068 tissue and scat samples collected in the Apennines (the source populations) and in the Alps (the colony), were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci aiming to assess (i) the strength of the bottleneck and founder effects during the onset of colonization; (ii) the rates of gene flow between source and colony; and (iii) the minimum number of colonizers that are needed to explain the genetic variability observed in the colony. We identified a total of 435 distinct wolf genotypes, which showed that wolves in the Alps: (i) have significantly lower genetic diversity (heterozygosity, allelic richness, number of private alleles) than wolves in the Apennines; (ii) are genetically distinct using pairwise F(ST) values, population assignment test and Bayesian clustering; (iii) are not in genetic equilibrium (significant bottleneck test). Spatial autocorrelations are significant among samples separated up to c. 230 km, roughly correspondent to the apparent gap in permanent wolf presence between the Alps and north Apennines. The estimated number of first-generation migrants indicates that migration has been unidirectional and male-biased, from the Apennines to the Alps, and that wolves in southern Italy did not contribute to the Alpine population. These results suggest that: (i) the Alps were colonized by a few long-range migrating wolves originating in the north Apennine subpopulation; (ii) during the colonization process there has been a moderate bottleneck; and (iii) gene flow between sources and colonies was moderate (corresponding to 1.25-2.50 wolves per generation), despite high potential for dispersal. Bottleneck simulations showed that a total of c. 8-16 effective founders are needed to explain the genetic diversity observed in the Alps. Levels of genetic diversity in the expanding Alpine wolf population, and the permanence of genetic structuring, will depend on the future rates of gene flow among distinct wolf subpopulation fragments.

Does this child have a foreign body aspiration?

Context: Foreign body aspiration (FbA) is a serious problem in children. Accurate clinical and radiographic diagnosis is important because missed or delayed diagnosis can result in respiratory difficulties ranging from life-treatening airway obstruction to chronic wheezing or recurrent pneumonia. Bronchoscopy also has risks and accurate clinical and radiographc diagnosis can support the decision of bronchoscopy. Objective: To rewiev the diagnostic accuracy of clinical presentation (CP) and pulmonary radiograph (PR) for the diagnosis of FbA. There is no previous rewievMethods: A search of Medline is conducted for articles containing data regarding CP and PR signes of FbA. Calculation of likelihood ratios (LR) and pre and post test probability using Bayes theorem were performed for all signs of CP and PR. Inclusion criteria: Articles containing prospective data regarding CP and PR of FbA. Exclusion criteria: Retrospectives studies. Articles containing incomplete data for calculation of LR. Results: Five prospectives studies are included with a total of 585 patients. Prevalence of FbA is 63% in children suspected of FbA. If CP is normal, probability of FbA is 25% and if PR is normal, probability is 14%. If CP is pathologic, probability of FbA is 69-76% with presence of cough (LR = 1.32) or dyspnea (LR = 1.84) or localized crackles (LR = 1.5). Probability is 81-88% if cyanosis (LR = 4.8) or decreased breaths sounds (LR = 4.3) or asymetric auscultation (LR = 2.9) or localized wheezing (LR = 2.5) are present. When CP is anormal and PR show mediatinal shift (LR = 100), pneumomediatin (LR = 100), radio opaque foreign body (LR = 100), lobar distention (LR = 4), atelectasis (LR = 2.5), inspiratory/expiratory abnormal (LR = 7), the probability of FbA is 96-100%. If CP is normal and PR is abnormal the probability is 40-100%. If CP is abnormal and PR is normal the probability is 55-75%. Conclusions: This rewiev of prospective studies demonstrates the importance of CP and PR and an algorithm can be proposed. When CP is abnormal with or without PR pathologic, the probability of FbA is high and bronchoscopy is indicated. When CP and PR are normal the probability of FbA is low and bronchoscopy is not necessary immediatly, observation should be proposed. This approach should be validated with prospective study.

Inferring landscape effects on dispersal from genetic distances: how far can we go?

Functional connectivity affects demography and gene dynamics in fragmented populations. Besides species-specific dispersal ability, the connectivity between local populations is affected by the landscape elements encountered during dispersal. Documenting these effects is thus a central issue for the conservation and management of fragmented populations. In this study, we compare the power and accuracy of three methods (partial correlations, regressions and Approximate Bayesian Computations) that use genetic distances to infer the effect of landscape upon dispersal. We use stochastic individual-based simulations of fragmented populations surrounded by landscape elements that differ in their permeability to dispersal. The power and accuracy of all three methods are good when there is a strong contrast between the permeability of different landscape elements. The power and accuracy can be further improved by restricting analyses to adjacent pairs of populations. Landscape elements that strongly impede dispersal are the easiest to identify. However, power and accuracy decrease drastically when landscape complexity increases and the contrast between the permeability of landscape elements decreases. We provide guidelines for future studies and underline the needs to evaluate or develop approaches that are more powerful.

Additional data for nuclear DNA give new insights into the phylogenetic position of Sorex granarius within the Sorex araneus group.

Many species contain genetic lineages that are phylogenetically intermixed with those of other species. In the Sorex araneus group, previous results based on mtDNA and Y chromosome sequence data showed an incongruent position of Sorex granarius within this group. In this study, we explored the relationship between species within the S. araneus group, aiming to resolve the particular position of S. granarius. In this context, we sequenced a total of 2447 base pairs (bp) of X-linked and nuclear genes from 47 individuals of the S. araneus group. The same taxa were also analyzed within a Bayesian framework with nine autosomal microsatellites. These analyses revealed that all markers apart from mtDNA showed similar patterns, suggesting that the problematic position of S. granarius is best explained by an incongruent behavior by mtDNA. Given their close phylogenetic relationship and their close geographic distribution, the most likely explanation for this pattern is past mtDNA introgression from S. araneus race Carlit to S. granarius.