Bayesian Networks for the Age Classification of Living Individuals: a Study on Transition Analysis

Over the past few decades, age estimation of living persons has represented a challenging task for many forensic services worldwide. In general, the process for age estimation includes the observation of the degree of maturity reached by some physical attributes, such as dentition or several ossification centers. The estimated chronological age or the probability that an individual belongs to a meaningful class of ages is then obtained from the observed degree of maturity by means of various statistical methods. Among these methods, those developed in a Bayesian framework offer to users the possibility of coherently dealing with the uncertainty associated with age estimation and of assessing in a transparent and logical way the probability that an examined individual is younger or older than a given age threshold. Recently, a Bayesian network for age estimation has been presented in scientific literature; this kind of probabilistic graphical tool may facilitate the use of the probabilistic approach. Probabilities of interest in the network are assigned by means of transition analysis, a statistical parametric model, which links the chronological age and the degree of maturity by means of specific regression models, such as logit or probit models. Since different regression models can be employed in transition analysis, the aim of this paper is to study the influence of the model in the classification of individuals. The analysis was performed using a dataset related to the ossifications status of the medial clavicular epiphysis and results support that the classification of individuals is not dependent on the choice of the regression model.

The ADO Index as a Predictor of Two-Year Mortality in General Practice-Based Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS: Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS: The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Challenges to patient-centred care in a general internal medicine context: findings from an exploratory study

Introduction. If we are to promote more patient-centred approaches in care delivery, we have to better characterize the situations in which being patient-centred is difficult to achieve. Data from professionals in health and social care are important because they are the people charged with operationalizing patient-centred care (PCC) in their daily practice. However, empirical accounts from frontline care providers are still lacking, and it is important to gather experiences not only from doctors but also from the other care providers. Indeed, experiences from different professions can help inform our understanding of patient care, which is expected to be both patient-centred and collaborative. Methods. This study was based on the following research question: What factors make the provision of PCC difficult to achieve? Sample and setting. A purposeful sampling technique was used, allowing for a series of choices about the participants and their professional affiliation. Because patient-centredness is the focus, 3 professions appeared to be of special interest: general internists, nurses and social workers. The study was undertaken in the General Internal Medicine Division of a teaching hospital located in a North American context. Data Collection. To answer the research question, a methodological approach based on a theory called phenomenology was chosen. Accordingly, semi-structured interviews were used since they generate understanding of the meanings different individuals have of their lived world. Interviews with 8 physicians, 10 nurses and 10 social workers were eventually conducted. Data analysis. An inductive thematic analysis was employed to make sense of the interview data. Results. The thematic analysis allowed identifying various types of challenges to PCC. Although most of the challenges were perceived by all three groups of professionals, they were perceived to a different degree across the professions, which likely reflected the scope of practice of each profession. The challenges and their distribution across the professions are illustrated in Table 1. Examples of challenges are provided in Table 2. Discussion. There is a tension between what is supposed to be done - what stands in the philosophy of patient -centredness - and what is currently done - the real life with all the challenges to PCC. According to some participants' accounts, PCC clearly risks becoming a mere illusion for health care professionals on which too great pressures are imposed.

Reframing video gaming and internet use addiction : empirical cross-national comparison of heavy use over time and addiction scales among young users

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Evidence-based and reliable measures of addictive disorders are needed in general population-based assessments. One study suggested that heavy use over time (UOT) should be used instead of self-reported addiction scales (AS). This study compared UOT and AS regarding video gaming and internet use empirically, using associations with comorbid factors. DESIGN: Cross-sectional data from the 2011 French Survey on Health and Consumption on Call-up and Preparation for Defence-Day (ESCAPAD), cross-sectional data from the 2012 Swiss ado@internet.ch study and two waves of longitudinal data (2010-13) of the Swiss Longitudinal Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). SETTING: Three representative samples from the general population of French and Swiss adolescents and young Swiss men, aged approximately 17, 14 and 20 years, respectively. PARTICIPANTS: ESCAPAD: n =22 945 (47.4% men); ado@internet.ch: n =3049 (50% men); C-SURF: n =4813 (baseline + follow-up, 100% men). MEASUREMENTS: We assessed video gaming/internet UOT ESCAPAD and ado@internet.ch: number of hours spent online per week, C-SURF: latent score of time spent gaming/using internet] and AS (ESCAPAD: Problematic Internet Use Questionnaire, ado@internet.ch: Internet Addiction Test, C-SURF: Gaming AS). Comorbidities were assessed with health outcomes (ESCAPAD: physical health evaluation with a single item, suicidal thoughts, and appointment with a psychiatrist; ado@internet.ch: WHO-5 and somatic health problems; C-SURF: Short Form 12 (SF-12 Health Survey) and Major Depression Inventory (MDI). FINDINGS: UOT and AS were correlated moderately (ESCAPAD: r = 0.40, ado@internet.ch: r = 0.53 and C-SURF: r = 0.51). Associations of AS with comorbidity factors were higher than those of UOT in cross-sectional (AS: .005 ≤ |b| ≤ 2.500, UOT: 0.001 ≤ |b| ≤ 1.000) and longitudinal analyses (AS: 0.093 ≤ |b| ≤ 1.079, UOT: 0.020 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.329). The results were similar across gender in ESCAPAD and ado@internet.ch (men: AS: 0.006 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.211, UOT: 0.001 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.061; women: AS: 0.004 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.155, UOT: 0.001 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.094). CONCLUSIONS: The measurement of heavy use over time captures part of addictive video gaming/internet use without overlapping to a large extent with the results of measuring by self-reported addiction scales (AS). Measuring addictive video gaming/internet use via self-reported addiction scales relates more strongly to comorbidity factors than heavy use over time.