Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

Disentangling reasons for low Y chromosome variation in the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula).

Y chromosome variation is determined by several confounding factors including mutation rate, effective population size, demography, and selection. Disentangling these factors is essential to better understand the evolutionary properties of the Y chromosome. We analyzed genetic variation on the Y chromosome, X chromosome, and mtDNA of the greater white-toothed shrew, a species with low variance in male reproductive success and limited sex-biased dispersal, which enables us to control to some extent for life-history effects. We also compared ancestral (Moroccan) to derived (European) populations to investigate the role of demographic history in determining Y variation. Recent colonization of Europe by a small number of founders (combined with low mutation rates) is largely responsible for low diversity observed on the European Y and X chromosomes compared to mtDNA. After accounting for mutation rate, copy number, and demography, the Y chromosome still displays a deficit in variation relative to the X in both populations. This is possibly influenced by directional selection, but the slightly higher variance in male reproductive success is also likely to play a role, even though the difference is small compared to that in highly polygynous species. This study illustrates that demography and life-history effects should be scrutinized before inferring strong selective pressure as a reason for low diversity on the Y chromosome.

Discourse Type Clustering using POS n-gram Profiles and High-Dimensional Embeddings

Abstract: To cluster textual sequence types (discourse types/modes) in French texts, K-means algorithm with high-dimensional embeddings and fuzzy clustering algorithm were applied on clauses whose POS (part-ofspeech) n-gram profiles were previously extracted. Uni-, bi- and trigrams were used on four 19th century French short stories by Maupassant. For high-dimensional embeddings, power transformations on the chi-squared distances between clauses were explored. Preliminary results show that highdimensional embeddings improve the quality of clustering, contrasting the use of bi and trigrams whose performance is disappointing, possibly because of feature space sparsity.

Clinical utility of g-cimp and idh1 status as dual prognostic markers in glioblastoma

The glioma CpG island methylator phenotype (G-CIMP) has been shown to be highly correlated with prognosis andwas noted to be highly concordant with IDH1mutation in malignant glioma in the limited number of samples analyzed. To better understand the relationship of G-CIMP with IDH1 mutation status and patient outcome, we examined G-CIMP status in detail in a larger retrospective series of glioblastomas as well as tumor samples from the RTOG 0525 clinical trial. Sampleswere tested for 6 CIMPmarkers andwere correlated with patient outcomes. In the retrospective tumor set (n ¼ 301),we found 3 distinct survival groups based on the number of CIMP markers: 0-1 (CIMP-negative), 2-4 (CIMP-intermediate), and 5 or greater (CIMP-positive) with median survivals 13.8, 20.1, and 90.6 months, respectively. This finding was validated in the RTOG 0525 samples (median survivals 15.0, 20.3, and 37.0 months). Among 787 cases with both IDH and CIMP data, 617 were CIMP-negative, 136 were CIMP-intermediate, and 34 were CIMP-positive. Seven hundred forty-four were wild type for IDH1 mutation, and 43 were mutant. CIMP and IDH status were positively correlated but outliers were found. Among the 610 CIMP-negative tumors, there were 7 IDH-mutant tumors, which showed no difference in outcome. Similarly, among the 34 CIMP-positive tumors, there were 21 IDH-mutant cases, which also showed no difference in outcome. However, among the CIMP-intermediate cases, there were 15 IDH-mutant cases with significantly (p ¼ 0.0003) improved outcome (medians not reached vs. 18.5 months, 2 year survival 87% vs. 32%). Multivariate analysis showed that both IDH1 mutation status and CIMP status were independent predictors of outcome. These findings suggest the clinical utility of refining the CIMP status into negative, intermediate, and positive groups and the finding that both IDH1 and CIMPstatus are important molecular markers in GBM.

The course of inflammatory bowel disease during pregnancy and postpartum: a prospective European ECCO-EpiCom Study of 209 pregnant women.

BACKGROUND: The impact of pregnancy on the course of IBD is still controversial. AIM: To investigate the impact of pregnancy on IBD and to search for factors with potential impact on remission. METHODS: Pregnant IBD women from 12 European countries were enrolled between January 2003 and December 2006 and compared at conception (1:1) with nonpregnant IBD women. Data on disease course were prospectively collected at each trimester during pregnancy and in the postpartum (6 months) using a standardised questionnaire. RESULTS: A total of 209 pregnant IBD women were included: 92 with Crohn's disease (CD; median age 31 years, range 17-40) and 117 with ulcerative colitis (UC; median age 32 years, range 19-42). No statistically significant difference in disease course during pregnancy and postpartum was observed between pregnant and nonpregnant CD women. Longer disease duration in CD and immunosuppressive therapy were found to be risk factors for activity during pregnancy. Pregnant UC women were more likely than nonpregnant UC women to relapse both during pregnancy (RR 2.19; 95% CI: 1.25-3.97, 0.004) and postpartum (RR 6.22; 95% CI: 2.05-79.3, P = 0.0004). During pregnancy, relapse was mainly observed in the first (RR 8.80; 95% CI 2.05-79.3, P < 0.0004) and the second trimester (RR 2.84, 95% CI 1.2-7.45, P = 0.0098). CONCLUSIONS: Pregnant women with Crohn's disease had a similar disease course both during pregnancy and after delivery as the nonpregnant women. In contrast, pregnant women with ulcerative colitis were at higher risk of relapse during pregnancy and in the postpartum than nonpregnant ulcerative colitis women.

Altered vision during motion: an unusual symptom of cerebellar dysfunction, quantifiable by a simple clinical test.

PURPOSE: To report a series of patients with cerebellar dysfunction and altered vision during motion, and to quantify their visual impairment in motion with a simple clinical test. METHODS: Twenty consecutive patients suffering from cerebellar dysfunction and altered vision during motion were examined between 1994 and 2007. A control group consisted of 20 age- and sex-matched healthy people. All patients had a full neuro-ophthalmic examination. Near visual acuity (NVA) was measured at rest (static NVA) and during chair rotation (dynamic NVA). Distance visual acuity (DVA) was measured at rest (static DVA) and during rotation of the patient's head (dynamic DVA). RESULTS: Only four of the 20 patients reported altered vision during motion spontaneously. The remaining 16 patients admitted this unusual visual disturbance only when asked specifically. All patients exhibited abnormal eye movements, including saccadic smooth pursuit (20/20), dysmetric saccades (15/20), nystagmus (19/20) and impaired suppression of vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) (20/20). During rotation of the examination chair (dynamic NVA), the drop in NVA averaged 5.6 lines (range 1-10 lines). During rotation of the patient's head (dynamic DVA), the drop in DVA averaged only 2.5 lines (range 0-10 lines). For the control group, there was no significant drop in NVA under dynamic conditions. CONCLUSION: Patients with cerebellar dysfunction rarely complain spontaneously of altered vision during motion. However, specific questioning may bring up this unusual symptom. The use of a simple clinical test, consisting of NVA measurement during rotation of the examination chair (dynamic NVA), allows practitioners to quantify the level of visual impairment in patients presenting altered VOR modulation.

The global regulator GacA of Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0 is required for the suppression of root diseases in dicotyledons but not in Gramineae

Pseudomonas fluorescens strain CHA0 suppresses various plant diseases caused by soil-borne fungi. The pseudomonad produces the antimicrobial metabolites 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol (Phl), pyoluteorin (Plt) and hydrogen cyanide, which are important for disease suppression, as well as the siderophores pyoverdine (Pvd), salicylic acid (Sal) and pyochelin (Pch). In the current work, a derivative of CHA0 with a mutation in the global regulator gene gacA (GacA−), which is unable to produce Phl, Plt and HCN, failed to protect the dicotyledonous plants cress and cucumber against damping-off caused by Pythium ultimum. In contrast, the GacA− mutant could still protect the Gramineae wheat and maize against damping-off mediated by the same strain of P. ultimum, and wheat against take-all caused by Gaeumannomyces graminis. However, the GacA− mutant overproduced Pch and Pvd. To gain more insight into disease protection afforded by the GacA− mutant, a GacA− Pvd− double mutant (strain CHA496) was constructed by gene replacement. Strain CHA496 overproduced Pch and Sal compared with CHA0 and protected wheat against P. ultimum and G. graminis, whereas cress and cucumber were not protected. Addition of FeCl3 repressed Pch and Sal production by strain CHA496 in vitro and impaired the protection of wheat in soil microcosms. In conclusion, a functional gacA gene was necessary for the protection of dicotyledons against root diseases, but not for that of Gramineae. Results indicated also that Pch and/or Sal were involved in the ability of the GacA− Pvd− mutant of CHA0 to suppress root diseases in Gramineae.

BIO-INSPIRED COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO THE CLUSTERING AND VISUALIZATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL GEOSPATIAL DATA

The coverage and volume of geo-referenced datasets are extensive and incessantly¦growing. The systematic capture of geo-referenced information generates large volumes¦of spatio-temporal data to be analyzed. Clustering and visualization play a key¦role in the exploratory data analysis and the extraction of knowledge embedded in¦these data. However, new challenges in visualization and clustering are posed when¦dealing with the special characteristics of this data. For instance, its complex structures,¦large quantity of samples, variables involved in a temporal context, high dimensionality¦and large variability in cluster shapes.¦The central aim of my thesis is to propose new algorithms and methodologies for¦clustering and visualization, in order to assist the knowledge extraction from spatiotemporal¦geo-referenced data, thus improving making decision processes.¦I present two original algorithms, one for clustering: the Fuzzy Growing Hierarchical¦Self-Organizing Networks (FGHSON), and the second for exploratory visual data analysis:¦the Tree-structured Self-organizing Maps Component Planes. In addition, I present¦methodologies that combined with FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component¦Planes allow the integration of space and time seamlessly and simultaneously in¦order to extract knowledge embedded in a temporal context.¦The originality of the FGHSON lies in its capability to reflect the underlying structure¦of a dataset in a hierarchical fuzzy way. A hierarchical fuzzy representation of¦clusters is crucial when data include complex structures with large variability of cluster¦shapes, variances, densities and number of clusters. The most important characteristics¦of the FGHSON include: (1) It does not require an a-priori setup of the number¦of clusters. (2) The algorithm executes several self-organizing processes in parallel.¦Hence, when dealing with large datasets the processes can be distributed reducing the¦computational cost. (3) Only three parameters are necessary to set up the algorithm.¦In the case of the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes, the novelty of this algorithm¦lies in its ability to create a structure that allows the visual exploratory data analysis¦of large high-dimensional datasets. This algorithm creates a hierarchical structure¦of Self-Organizing Map Component Planes, arranging similar variables' projections in¦the same branches of the tree. Hence, similarities on variables' behavior can be easily¦detected (e.g. local correlations, maximal and minimal values and outliers).¦Both FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes were applied in¦several agroecological problems proving to be very efficient in the exploratory analysis¦and clustering of spatio-temporal datasets.¦In this thesis I also tested three soft competitive learning algorithms. Two of them¦well-known non supervised soft competitive algorithms, namely the Self-Organizing¦Maps (SOMs) and the Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Maps (GHSOMs); and the¦third was our original contribution, the FGHSON. Although the algorithms presented¦here have been used in several areas, to my knowledge there is not any work applying¦and comparing the performance of those techniques when dealing with spatiotemporal¦geospatial data, as it is presented in this thesis.¦I propose original methodologies to explore spatio-temporal geo-referenced datasets¦through time. Our approach uses time windows to capture temporal similarities and¦variations by using the FGHSON clustering algorithm. The developed methodologies¦are used in two case studies. In the first, the objective was to find similar agroecozones¦through time and in the second one it was to find similar environmental patterns¦shifted in time.¦Several results presented in this thesis have led to new contributions to agroecological¦knowledge, for instance, in sugar cane, and blackberry production.¦Finally, in the framework of this thesis we developed several software tools: (1)¦a Matlab toolbox that implements the FGHSON algorithm, and (2) a program called¦BIS (Bio-inspired Identification of Similar agroecozones) an interactive graphical user¦interface tool which integrates the FGHSON algorithm with Google Earth in order to¦show zones with similar agroecological characteristics.

p53 and Ki-ras as prognostic factors for Dukes' stage B colorectal cancer.

Mutations of the TP53 and Ki-ras genes have been reported to be of prognostic importance in colorectal carcinomas. An increased intracellular concentration of the p53 protein, although not identical to, is sometimes seen in tumours with TP53 mutation and has been correlated with poor prognosis in some tumour types. Previous colorectal cancer studies, addressing the prognostic importance of Ki-ras mutation and TP53 aberrations, yielded contradictory results. The aim of this study was to determine in a clinically and therapeutically homogeneous group of 122 sporadic Dukes' B colorectal carcinomas with a median follow-up of 67 months (3-144 months) whether or not p53 protein expression, TP53 mutation and K-ras mutation correlated with prognosis. p53 staining was performed by immunohistochemistry, using the monoclonal antibody DO7 on paraffin-embedded tissue. Mutations in exons 5-8 of the TP53 gene and in codons 12 and 13 of the K-ras gene were assayed in paraffin-embedded tissue by the single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) assay. Nuclear p53 staining was found in 57 (47%) tumours. Aberrant migration patterns indicating mutation of the TP53 gene were found in 39 (32%) tumours. Forty-six carcinomas (38%) showed a mutation of the Ki-ras codons 12 or 13. In a univariate analysis, patients with wild-type TP53 status showed a trend towards better survival, compared with those with mutated TP53 (log-rank test, P = 0.051). Likewise, tumours immunohistochemically positive for p53 showed a worse prognosis than p53-negative tumours (P = 0.010). The presence or absence of mutations in Ki-ras did not correlate with prognosis (P = 0.703). In multivariate analysis, only p53 immunoreactivity emerged as an independent marker for prognosis hazard ratio (HR) = 2.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-4.11, P = 0.02). Assessment of p53 protein expression is more discriminative than TP53 mutation to predict the outcome of Dukes' stage B tumours and could be a useful tool to identify patients who might benefit from adjuvant therapy.

Clinical and molecular characterization of Diastrophic Dysplasia in the Portuguese population.

SLC26A2-related dysplasias encompass a spectrum of diseases: from lethal achondrogenesis type 1B (ACG1B; MIM #600972) and atelosteogenesis type 2 (AO2; MIM #256050) to classical diastrophic dysplasia (cDTD; MIM #222600) and recessive multiple epiphyseal dysplasia (rMED; MIM #226900). This study aimed at characterizing clinically, radiologically and molecularly 14 patients affected by non-lethal SLC26A2-related dysplasias and at evaluating genotype-phenotype correlation. Phenotypically, eight patients were classified as cDTD, four patients as rMED and two patients had an intermediate phenotype (mild DTD - mDTD, previously 'DTD variant'). The Arg279Trp mutation was present in all patients, either in homozygosity (resulting in rMED) or in compound heterozygosity with the known severe alleles Arg178Ter or Asn425Asp (resulting in DTD) or with the mutation c.727-1G>C (causing mDTD). The 'Finnish mutation', c.-26+2T>C, and the p.Cys653Ser, both frequent mutations in non-Portuguese populations, were not identified in any of the patients of our cohort and are probably very rare in the Portuguese population. A targeted mutation analysis for p.Arg279Trp and p.Arg178Ter in the Portuguese population allows the identification of approximately 90% of the pathogenic alleles.

Association of ECG abnormalities and incident heart failure events

Background: With the aging of the population, the heart failure (HF) incidence and prevalence trends are expected to significantly worsen unless concentrated prevention efforts are undertaken. ECG abnormalities are common in the elderly but data are limited for their association with HF risk. Objective: To assess whether baseline ECG abnormalities or dynamic changes are associated with an increased risk of HF. Method: A prospective cohort study of 2915 participants aged 70 to 79 years without a preexisting HF followed for a median period of 11.4 (IQR 7.0-11.7) years from the Health Aging and Body Composition study. The Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at 4-year. Main outcome measure was adjudicated incident HF events. Using Cox models, the (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score, was assessed. Results: At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During follow-up, 485 (16.6%) participants developed incident HF. After adjusting for the eight clinical variables in the Health ABC HF Risk Score, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities (P for trend <0.001) compared to no ECG abnormalities. The association did not change according to presence of baseline CHD. At 4-year, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities and both were associated with increased HF risk (HR = 1.94, CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR=2.35, CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent compared to no ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.6% of overall participants across the categories of the Health ABC HF Risk Score. Conclusion: Among older adults, baseline ECG abnormalities and changes in them over time are common; both are associated with an increased risk of HF. Whether ECG should be incorporated in routine screening of older adults should be evaluated in randomized controlled trials.

Non-viral gene therapy for GDNF production in RCS rat: the crucial role of the plasmid dose.

Glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) is one of the candidate molecules among neurotrophic factors proposed for a potential treatment of retinitis pigmentosa (RP). It must be administered repeatedly or through sustained releasing systems to exert prolonged neuroprotective effects. In the dystrophic Royal College of Surgeon's (RCS) rat model of RP, we found that endogenous GDNF levels dropped during retinal degeneration time course, opening a therapeutic window for GDNF supplementation. We showed that after a single electrotransfer of 30 μg of GDNF-encoding plasmid in the rat ciliary muscle, GDNF was produced for at least 7 months. Morphometric, electroretinographic and optokinetic analyses highlighted that this continuous release of GDNF delayed photoreceptors (PRs) as well as retinal functions loss until at least 70 days of age in RCS rats. Unexpectedly, increasing the GDNF secretion level accelerated PR degeneration and the loss of electrophysiological responses. This is the first report: (i) demonstrating the efficacy of GDNF delivery through non-viral gene therapy in RP; (ii) establishing the efficacy of intravitreal administration of GDNF in RP associated with a mutation in the retinal pigment epithelium; and (iii) warning against potential toxic effects of GDNF within the eye/retina.

Failure to thrive in a girl born into a family affected by familial dysalbuminemic hyperthyroxinemia

Autosomal dominant familial dysalbuminemic hyperthyroxinemia (FDH)is characterized by modified human serum albumin (HSA) inducing asubstantially higher affinity for thyroxine (T4). Histidin or prolinsubstitution on residue R218 produces localized conformationalchanges of HSA creating additional room for T4 binding, leadingto 14-20 fold normal total T4 (TT4) levels. Affected individuals areconsidered euthyroid. Our patient is an 18 months-old swiss girl bornto a mother known for the rare R218P mutation in the HSA gene.She presented with severe failure to thrive (height -2.92 SD, weight-3.6 SD), habitual hip dislocation without anatomical anomaly, latefontanelle closing and protruding ears. Psychomotor development isslightly retarded. Thyroid function testing confirmed extremely high TT4(1446.0 nmol/l) levels, which are similar to her brother's values (1534.4nmol/l and 1757.6 nmol/l respectively). Free T4 seems slightly elevated(26 pmol/l), probably due to methodological reasons. TSH (0.92 mU/l),free T3 (4.4 pmol/l) and thyroxin binding globulin (32 mg/l) are withinthe normal range. Her two half-brothers, affected by the samemutation, are now 18.7 (P1) and 16.6 (P2) years old and wereoriginally described by S. Pannain et al. in 2000. Both werecharacterized by growth retardation (-2.1 and -2.2 SD) before the ageof 4 years. P1 has reached a normal adult height (-0.4 SD) and P2has caught up to normal growth (-0.68 SD) with moderate bonematuration delay. Pubertal development and anterior pituitary functionare adequate. Primary growth and developmental retardation in thefirst years of life with adequate catch-up seem to be a distinctcharacteristic in FDH with R218P mutation. Hip dislocation is typicallyseen in other situations associated to thyroid disorders, like Downsyndrome. These findings might be explained by altered early thyroidhormone utilization in children with FDH.

Practice guidelines for evaluation of Fever in returning travelers and migrants.

BACKGROUND: Fever upon return from tropical or subtropical regions can be caused by diseases that are rapidly fatal if left untreated. The differential diagnosis is wide. Physicians often lack the necessary knowledge to appropriately take care of such patients. OBJECTIVE: To develop practice guidelines for the initial evaluation of patients presenting with fever upon return from a tropical or subtropical country in order to reduce delays and potential fatal outcomes and to improve knowledge of physicians. TARGET AUDIENCE: Medical personnel, usually physicians, who see the returning patients, primarily in an ambulatory setting or in an emergency department of a hospital and specialists in internal medicine, infectious diseases, and travel medicine. METHOD: A systematic review of the literature--mainly extracted from the National Library of Medicine database--was performed between May 2000 and April 2001, using the keywords fever and/or travel and/or migrant and/or guidelines. Eventually, 250 articles were reviewed. The relevant elements of evidence were used in combination with expert knowledge to construct an algorithm with arborescence flagging the level of specialization required to deal with each situation. The proposed diagnoses and treatment plans are restricted to tropical or subtropical diseases (nonautochthonous diseases). The decision chart is accompanied with a detailed document that provides for each level of the tree the degree of evidence and the grade of recommendation as well as the key points of debate. PARTICIPANTS AND CONSENSUS PROCESS: Besides the 4 authors (2 specialists in travel/tropical medicine, 1 clinical epidemiologist, and 1 resident physician), a panel of 11 European physicians with different levels of expertise on travel medicine reviewed the guidelines. Thereafter, each point of the proposed recommendations was discussed with 15 experts in travel/tropical medicine from various continents. A final version was produced and submitted for evaluation to all participants. CONCLUSION: Although the quality of evidence was limited by the paucity of clinical studies, these guidelines established with the support of a large and highly experienced panel should help physicians to deal with patients coming back from the Tropics with fever.

In vivo 13C NMR spectroscopy and metabolic modeling in the brain: a practical perspective.

In vivo 13C NMR spectroscopy has the unique capability to measure metabolic fluxes noninvasively in the brain. Quantitative measurements of metabolic fluxes require analysis of the 13C labeling time courses obtained experimentally with a metabolic model. The present work reviews the ingredients necessary for a dynamic metabolic modeling study, with particular emphasis on practical issues.