Strategy selection: An introduction to the modeling challenge

Modeling the mechanisms that determine how humans and other agents choose among different behavioral and cognitive processes-be they strategies, routines, actions, or operators-represents a paramount theoretical stumbling block across disciplines, ranging from the cognitive and decision sciences to economics, biology, and machine learning. By using the cognitive and decision sciences as a case study, we provide an introduction to what is also known as the strategy selection problem. First, we explain why many researchers assume humans and other animals to come equipped with a repertoire of behavioral and cognitive processes. Second, we expose three descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive challenges that are common to all disciplines which aim to model the choice among these processes. Third, we give an overview of different approaches to strategy selection. These include cost‐benefit, ecological, learning, memory, unified, connectionist, sequential sampling, and maximization approaches. We conclude by pointing to opportunities for future research and by stressing that the selection problem is far from being resolved.

Bone mineral density in breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant letrozole, tamoxifen, or sequences of letrozole and tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 study (SAKK 21/07).

BACKGROUND: The risk of osteoporosis and fracture influences the selection of adjuvant endocrine therapy. We analyzed bone mineral density (BMD) in Swiss patients of the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 trial [treatment arms: A, tamoxifen (T) for 5 years; B, letrozole (L) for 5 years; C, 2 years of T followed by 3 years of L; D, 2 years of L followed by 3 years of T]. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) results were retrospectively collected. Patients without DXA served as control group. Repeated measures models using covariance structures allowing for different times between DXA were used to estimate changes in BMD. Prospectively defined covariates were considered as fixed effects in the multivariable models. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty-one of 546 patients had one or more DXA with 577 lumbar and 550 hip measurements. Weight, height, prior hormone replacement therapy, and hysterectomy were positively correlated with BMD; the correlation was negative for letrozole arms (B/C/D versus A), known osteoporosis, time on trial, age, chemotherapy, and smoking. Treatment did not influence the occurrence of osteoporosis (T score < -2.5 standard deviation). CONCLUSIONS: All aromatase inhibitor regimens reduced BMD. The sequential schedules were as detrimental for bone density as L monotherapy.

In vitro activities of tigecycline combined with other antimicrobials against multiresistant gram-positive and gram-negative pathogens.

OBJECTIVES: To test the activity of tigecycline combined with 16 antimicrobials in vitro against 22 gram-positive and 55 gram-negative clinical isolates. METHODS: Antibiotic interactions were determined by chequerboard and time-kill methods. RESULTS: By chequerboard, of 891 organism-drug interactions tested, 97 (11%) were synergistic, 793 (89%) were indifferent and 1 (0.1%) was antagonistic. Among gram-positive pathogens, most synergisms occurred against Enterococcus spp. (7/11 isolates) with the tigecycline/rifampicin combination. No antagonism was detected. Among gram-negative organisms, synergism was observed mainly with trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole against Serratia marcescens (5/5 isolates), Proteus spp. (2/5) and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia (2/5), with aztreonam against S. maltophilia (3/5), with cefepime and imipenem against Enterobacter cloacae (3/5), with ceftazidime against Morganella morganii (3/5), and with ceftriaxone against Klebsiella pneumoniae (3/5). The only case of antagonism occurred against one S. marcescens with the tigecycline/imipenem combination. Selected time-kill assays confirmed the bacteriostatic interactions observed by the chequerboard method. Moreover, they revealed a bactericidal synergism of tigecycline with piperacillin/tazobactam against one penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae and with amikacin against Proteus vulgaris. CONCLUSIONS: Combinations of tigecycline with other antimicrobials produce primarily an indifferent response. Specific synergisms, especially against enterococci and problematic gram-negative isolates, might be worth investigating in in vitro models and/or in animal models simulating the human environment.

The branch-site test of positive selection is surprisingly robust but lacks power under synonymous substitution saturation and variation in GC

Positive selection is widely estimated from protein coding sequence alignments by the nonsynonymous-to-synonymous ratio omega. Increasingly elaborate codon models are used in a likelihood framework for this estimation. Although there is widespread concern about the robustness of the estimation of the omega ratio, more efforts are needed to estimate this robustness, especially in the context of complex models. Here, we focused on the branch-site codon model. We investigated its robustness on a large set of simulated data. First, we investigated the impact of sequence divergence. We found evidence of underestimation of the synonymous substitution rate for values as small as 0.5, with a slight increase in false positives for the branch-site test. When dS increases further, underestimation of dS is worse, but false positives decrease. Interestingly, the detection of true positives follows a similar distribution, with a maximum for intermediary values of dS. Thus, high dS is more of a concern for a loss of power (false negatives) than for false positives of the test. Second, we investigated the impact of GC content. We showed that there is no significant difference of false positives between high GC (up to similar to 80%) and low GC (similar to 30%) genes. Moreover, neither shifts of GC content on a specific branch nor major shifts in GC along the gene sequence generate many false positives. Our results confirm that the branch-site is a very conservative test.

Heritability and quantitative genetic divergence of serotiny, a fire-persistence plant trait.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although it is well known that fire acts as a selective pressure shaping plant phenotypes, there are no quantitative estimates of the heritability of any trait related to plant persistence under recurrent fires, such as serotiny. In this study, the heritability of serotiny in Pinus halepensis is calculated, and an evaluation is made as to whether fire has left a selection signature on the level of serotiny among populations by comparing the genetic divergence of serotiny with the expected divergence of neutral molecular markers (QST-FST comparison). METHODS: A common garden of P. halepensis was used, located in inland Spain and composed of 145 open-pollinated families from 29 provenances covering the entire natural range of P. halepensis in the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands. Narrow-sense heritability (h(2)) and quantitative genetic differentiation among populations for serotiny (QST) were estimated by means of an 'animal model' fitted by Bayesian inference. In order to determine whether genetic differentiation for serotiny is the result of differential natural selection, QST estimates for serotiny were compared with FST estimates obtained from allozyme data. Finally, a test was made of whether levels of serotiny in the different provenances were related to different fire regimes, using summer rainfall as a proxy for fire regime in each provenance. KEY RESULTS: Serotiny showed a significant narrow-sense heritability (h(2)) of 0·20 (credible interval 0·09-0·40). Quantitative genetic differentiation among provenances for serotiny (QST = 0·44) was significantly higher than expected under a neutral process (FST = 0·12), suggesting adaptive differentiation. A significant negative relationship was found between the serotiny level of trees in the common garden and summer rainfall of their provenance sites. CONCLUSIONS: Serotiny is a heritable trait in P. halepensis, and selection acts on it, giving rise to contrasting serotiny levels among populations depending on the fire regime, and supporting the role of fire in generating genetic divergence for adaptive traits.

Prolonged but not short negative energy condition restored corticoadrenal leptin sensitivity in the hypothalamic obese rat.

BACKGROUND/AIM: We have reported that neonatal treatment with monosodium L-glutamate (MSG), which causes damage to the arcuate nucleus, leads to severe hyperleptinemia and reduced adrenal leptin receptor (ob-Rb) expression in adulthood. As a result, rats given MSG neonatally display corticoadrenal leptin-resistance, a defect that is overridden by normalization of corticoadrenal hyperfunction. The aim of the present study was to determine whether negative energy conditions could correct corticoadrenal cell dysfunction in rats given MSG neonatally. METHODS: Normal (CTR) and MSG-treated female rats were subjected to food removal for 1-5 days, or prolonged (24-61 days) food restriction (FR). Plasma levels of several biomarkers and in vitro corticoadrenal function were evaluated following starvation or FR. RESULTS: Fasting for 1-5 days reduced plasma leptin levels in CTR and MSG rats, compared to levels in the respective groups fed ad libitum(p < 0.05), but adrenal leptin-resistance was unchanged. With prolonged FR, isolated adrenal cells from MSG rats became sensitive to leptin, which lowered ACTH-induced glucocorticoid release. This restoration of leptin response was associated with normalization of adrenal ob-Rb gene expression. CONCLUSION: Dietary restriction in some leptin-resistant obese phenotypes may normalize adrenocortical function.

One-step nucleic acid amplification (OSNA): a new road to better staging in colon cancer patients?

Introduction: Approximately one fifth of stage I and II colon cancer patients will suffer from recurrent disease. This is partly due to the presence of small nodal tumour infiltrates, which are undetected by standard histopathology using Haematoxylin & Eosin (H&E) staining on one slice and thus may not receive beneficial adjuvant therapy. A new diagnostic, semi-automatic system, called one-step nucleic acid amplification (OSNA), was recently designed for the detection of cytokeratin 19 (CK19) mRNA as a surrogate for lymph node metastases. The objective of the present investigation was to compare the performance of OSNA with both standard H&E as well as intensive histopathologic analyses in the detection of colon cancer lymph node micro- and macro-metastases.Methods: In this prospective study 313 lymph nodes from 22 consecutive stage I - III colon cancer patients were assessed. Half of each lymph node was analysed initially based on one slice of H&E followed by an intensive histologic work-up (5 levels of H&E and immuno-histochemistry staining for each slice), the other half was analysed using OSNA.Results: All OSNA results were available after less than 40 minutes. Fifty-one lymph nodes were positive and 246 lymph nodes negative with both OSNA and standard H&E. OSNA was more sensitive to detect small nodal tumor infiltrates compared to H&E (11 OSNA pos. /H&E neg.). Compared to intensive histopathologic analyses, OSNA had a sensitivity of 94.5% and a specificity of 97.6% to detect lymph node micro- and macro-metastases with a concordance rate of 97.1%. An upstaging due to OSNA was found in 2/13 (15.3%) initially node negative colon cancer patients.Conclusion: OSNA appears to be a powerful and promising molecular tool for the detection of lymph node macro- and micro-metastases in colon cancer patients. OSNA has a similar performance in the detection of micro- and macro-metastases compared to intensive histopathologic investigations and appears to be superior to standard histology with H&E. Since the use of OSNA allows the analysis of the whole lymph node, the problem of sampling bias and undetected tumor deposits due to uninvestigated material will be overcome in the future and OSNA may thus improve staging in colon cancer patients. It is hoped that this improved staging will lead to better patient selection for adjuvant therapy and consecutively improved local and distant control as well as better overall survival.

Cancer Cell-Associated MT1-MMP Promotes Blood Vessel Invasion and Distant Metastasis in Triple-Negative Mammary Tumors.

Functional roles for the cancer cell-associated membrane type I matrix metalloproteinase (MT1-MMP) during early steps of the metastatic cascade in primary tumors remain unresolved. In an effort to determine its significance, we determined the in vivo effects of RNAi-mediated downregulation in mammary cancer cells on the migration, blood and lymphatic vessel invasion (LVI), and lymph node and lung metastasis. We also correlated the expression of cancer cell MT1-MMP with blood vessel invasion (BVI) in 102 breast cancer biopsies. MT1-MMP downregulation in cancer cells decreased lung metastasis without affecting primary tumor growth. The inhibition of lung metastasis correlated with reduced cancer cell migration and BVI. Furthermore, cancer cell-expressed MT1-MMP upregulated the expression of MT1-MMP in vascular endothelial cells, but did not affect MT1-MMP expression in lymphatic endothelial cells, LVI, or lymph node metastasis. Of clinical importance, we observed that elevated MT1-MMP expression correlated with BVI in biopsies from triple-negative breast cancers (TNBC), which have a poor prognosis and high incidence of distant metastasis, relative to other breast cancer subtypes. Together, our findings established that MT1-MMP activity in breast tumors is essential for BVI, but not LVI, and that MT1-MMP should be further explored as a predictor and therapeutic target of hematogenous metastasis in TNBC patients. Cancer Res; 71(13); 4527-38. ©2011 AACR.

Habitat fragmentation, ecology and sexual selection in forest bird species in Monteverde, Costa Rica

Abstract Forest fragmentation is often associated with local extinction and changes in species abundance patterns. The main topic of this thesis is the effect of forest fragmentation on birds in Monteverde, Costa Rica. This thesis also studies aspects of sexual selection and ecology of Long-tailed Manakins, Chiroxiphia Linearis. Chapter 1 investigates bird species assemblages in two degrees of forest fragmentation. It is shown that the distribution, abundance and diversity of forest bird species are strongly influenced by the amount of forest in the landscape matrix. Presence of cattle within the forest influences the presence of some bird species. The prevalence and intensity of ticks and blood parasites on birds in relation to fragmentation is described in Chapter 2. Overall tick prevalence is 3%. Understory birds are significantly more infested with ticks than species at intermediate heights. Tick prevalence on birds does not differ significantly between two degrees of forest fragmentation and individual tick loads tend to be higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. Infestations by the blood parasites Haemoproteus sp. was low except in white-eared ground sparrow, Melozone leucotis, that is 28% and is significantly higher in High- than in Low-fragmentation sites. In chapter 3 results on the ecology and habitat movements of the Bare-necked Umbrellabird, Cephalopterus glabricollis, are presented. The abundance of umbrellabirds at high elevations during the breeding season coincides with the highest peak of fruit abundance. Birds leave the protected area during the non-breeding season moving to unprotected forest fragments. In chapter 4 ontogenetic changes in feather morphology through sexual maturity in Long-tailed Manakins are described. In adult males, rectrices length is positively correlated to testis volume. Changes in male morphology during ontogeny in the long-tailed manakin appear to be associated with their specific-display behaviours. Significant interpopulation differences in the morphology of Long-tailed Manakins are shown in chapter 5. These differences are more accentuated in morphological traits related to flight displays. A field experiment demonstrates that long rectrices impose flying costs for males and females. A reduction in flying ability was found to be strongest in males from a population presenting the highest degree of sexual dimorphism. Résumé La fragmentation des forêts est souvent associée avec des modifications dans l'abondance des espèces et des extinctions locales. Le thème principale de cette thèse est l'étude de l'effet de la fragmentation des forêts sur les oiseaux de Monteverde, Costa Rica. Elle décrit par ailleurs certains aspects de la sélection sexuelle et l'écologie du manakin à longue queue, Chiroxiphia linearis. Dans le Chapitre 1 je montre que la distribution, l'abondance et la diversité des assemblages d'oiseaux vivant dans la forêt sont fortement influencées pas le degré de fragmentation de celle ci. Par ailleurs, la présence ou l'absence de bétail dans les forêts influence la présence de certaines espèces d'oiseaux. Dans le chapitre 2 j'ai étudié la prévalence et l'intensité d'infestation par des tiques ainsi que la présence de parasites sanguins chez les oiseaux en relation avec la fragmentation des forêts. La prévalence globale de tiques est de 3 %, les oiseaux vivant au niveau du sol étaient plus souvent infectés par des tiques que les espèces se déplaçant à un niveau plus élevé. La prévalence de tiques sur les oiseaux n'était pas significativement différente entre les paysages avec différentes fragmentations. Les parasites sanguins du genre Haemoproteus sp. étaient présents à très basse fréquence à l'exception chez Melozone leucotis ou la prevalence était de 28% et significativement plus élevée chez les oiseaux vivant dans les forêts à forte fragmentation. Dans le Chapitre 3 je présente des résultats sur l'écologie et les mouvements entre habitats chez le "Bare-necked umbrellabird", Cephalopterus glabricollis. Cette espèce endémique du Costa Rica niche à haute altitude durant la période d'abondance des fruits et réalise une migration altitudinale vers des zones basses durant la saison de non reproduction. Dans le chapitre 4 je présente les changements ontogénétiques dans la morphologie du plumage des manakins à longue queue. Chez les mâles, les changements de morphologie semblent être associés avec leurs comportements de parade spécifiques. Dans le chapitre 5 je présente des différences morphologiques significative entre deux populations chez le manakin à longue queue et je montre que la capacité de vols chez les mâles est plus fortement influencée dans la population avec le degré de dimorphisme sexuel le plus prononcé.

Evolutionary ecology of the colour-dimorphic rewardless orchid "Dactylorhiza sambucina"

Abstract Phenotypic polymorphism is an ideal system to study natural selection in wild populations, because it allows tracking population genetic changes by means of phenotypic changes. A wide variety of polymorphic traits have been studied in numerous animals and plants, as for example colour patterns in moths, snails and birds, human laterality, male reproductive strategies, plant morphology or mating systems. This thesis focused on Dactylorhiza sarnbucina, a rewardless European orchid species, showing a striking flower colour polymorphism, with either yellow or red flowered individuals co-occurring in natural populations. Several studies have investigated its evolutionary ecology since Nilsson's seminal paper in 1980, with a particular emphasis in the evolution and maintenance of its colour polymorphism. One of the main selective forces proposed to maintain this colour polymorphism was pollinator driven negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS), when each morph is advantaged when rare, and comparatively disadvantaged when common. However, other investigators have recently questioned the occurrence of NFDS, and proposed alternatively that fluctuating selection may maintain this colour polymorphism. In this thesis, we aimed at reviewing and synthesizing these different studies, and also brought our contribution on D. sambucina reproductive ecology. Because numerous hypotheses have still to be tested, we concluded by saying that we are a long way from understanding the evolution and dynamics of colour polymorphism in natural D. sambucina populations. Beside the debated question of colour polymorphism maintenance, one question remained to be tested: what are the consequences of polymorphism per se. We experimentally addressed this question using artificial populations of D. sambucina, and found no relationship between population phenotypic diversity and orchid pollination success. This finding suggest that polymorphism itself was not an advantage for deceptive species such D sambucina, contrarily to the expectations. Finally, we suggest potential research perspectives that could allow a better understanding of the evolutionary ecology of this species. Résumé Le polymorphisme phénotypique est un système biologique idéal pour étudier l'action de la sélection en populations naturelles, grâce à la possibilité de suivre les changements génétiques de la population en étudiant les phénotypes des individus. De très nombreuses études ont montré du polymorphisme phénotypique chez les animaux, par exemple la latéralité chez l'Homme, la coloration des escargots ou des oiseaux. Dans le règne végétal, le polymorphisme est souvent associé à des traits du système de reproduction. Cette thèse est centrée sur une espèce d'orchidée Européenne qui ne produit pas de nectar, Dactylorhiza sambucina. Cette espèce présente des individus à fleurs jaunes et des individus à fleurs rouge, généralement présents en mélange dans les populations naturelles. Plusieurs études ont investigué l'écologie évolutive de cette espèce depuis 25 ans, avec comme thème central l'évolution et le maintien de ce polymorphisme. La principale force sélective proposée pour maintenir ce polymorphisme de couleur est la sélection fréquence-dépendante, exercée par le comportement des pollinisateurs. Chacun des deux variants de couleur est favorisé quand il est rare, et défavorisé quand il devient commun. Bien que ce mécanisme semble agir, certains auteurs doutent de son importance, et ont proposé que les variations temporelles ou spatiales des forces de sélection puisse maintenir le polymorphisme de couleur chez D. sambucina. Dans cette thèse, nous avons voulu résumer et synthétiser les résultats de ces différentes études, et aussi présenter des données nouvelles concernant la reproduction de cette espèce. À la vue de ces résultats, il apparait que de nombreux points nécessitent des expériences complémentaires, et que la compréhension de ce système biologique est encore fragmentaire. Nous nous sommes également intéressés à une question laissée en suspens dans la littérature: le polymorphisme de couleur en soit confère-t-il un avantage à l'espèce, comme proposé par certains auteurs? En construisant des populations artificielles de D. sambucina, nous avons pu montrer que le polymorphisme de couleur n'augmente pas le succès reproducteur de l'espèce. Nous terminons ce travail de recherche en proposant plusieurs axes de recherche pouvant conduire à une meilleure compréhension de l'écologie et de l'évolution de cette espèce.

Minimization of Nyquist ghosting for echo-planar imaging at ultra-high fields based on a "negative readout gradient" strategy.

PURPOSE: To improve the traditional Nyquist ghost correction approach in echo planar imaging (EPI) at high fields, via schemes based on the reversal of the EPI readout gradient polarity for every other volume throughout a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) acquisition train. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An EPI sequence in which the readout gradient was inverted every other volume was implemented on two ultrahigh-field systems. Phantom images and fMRI data were acquired to evaluate ghost intensities and the presence of false-positive blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal with and without ghost correction. Three different algorithms for ghost correction of alternating readout EPI were compared. RESULTS: Irrespective of the chosen processing approach, ghosting was significantly reduced (up to 70% lower intensity) in both rat brain images acquired on a 9.4T animal scanner and human brain images acquired at 7T, resulting in a reduction of sources of false-positive activation in fMRI data. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that at high B(0) fields, substantial gains in Nyquist ghost correction of echo planar time series are possible by alternating the readout gradient every other volume.

Altered thymic selection by overexpressing cellular FLICE inhibitory protein in T cells causes lupus-like syndrome in a BALB/c but not C57BL/6 strain.

The cellular FLICE inhibitory protein (c-FLIP) is an endogenous inhibitor of the caspase-8 proapoptotic signaling pathway downstream of death receptors. Recent evidence indicates that the long form of c-FLIP (c-FLIP(L)) is required for proliferation and effector T-cell development. However, the role of c-FLIP(L) in triggering autoimmunity has not been carefully analyzed. We now report that c-FLIP(L) transgenic (Tg) mice develop splenomegaly, lymphadenopathy, multiorgan infiltration, high titers of auto-antibodies, and proliferative glomerulonephritis with immune complex deposition in a strain-dependent manner. The development of autoimmunity requires CD4(+) T cells and may result from impaired thymic selection. At the molecular level, c-FLIP(L) overexpression inhibits the zeta chain-associated protein tyrosine kinase of 70 kDa (ZAP-70) activation, thus impairing the signaling pathway derived from ZAP-70 required for thymic selection. Therefore, we have identified c-FLIP(L) as a susceptibility factor under the influence of epistatic modifiers for the development of autoimmunity.