Stochastic stability and the evolution of coordination in spatially structured populations.

Animals can often coordinate their actions to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes. However, this can result in a social dilemma when uncertainty about the behavior of partners creates multiple fitness peaks. Strategies that minimize risk ("risk dominant") instead of maximizing reward ("payoff dominant") are favored in economic models when individuals learn behaviors that increase their payoffs. Specifically, such strategies are shown to be "stochastically stable" (a refinement of evolutionary stability). Here, we extend the notion of stochastic stability to biological models of continuous phenotypes at a mutation-selection-drift balance. This allows us to make a unique prediction for long-term evolution in games with multiple equilibria. We show how genetic relatedness due to limited dispersal and scaled to account for local competition can crucially affect the stochastically-stable outcome of coordination games. We find that positive relatedness (weak local competition) increases the chance the payoff dominant strategy is stochastically stable, even when it is not risk dominant. Conversely, negative relatedness (strong local competition) increases the chance that strategies evolve that are neither payoff nor risk dominant. Extending our results to large multiplayer coordination games we find that negative relatedness can create competition so extreme that the game effectively changes to a hawk-dove game and a stochastically stable polymorphism between the alternative strategies evolves. These results demonstrate the usefulness of stochastic stability in characterizing long-term evolution of continuous phenotypes: the outcomes of multiplayer games can be reduced to the generic equilibria of two-player games and the effect of spatial structure can be analyzed readily.

Is there an advantage to be gained from adding digital image cytometry of brush cytology to a standard biopsy protocol in patients with Barrett's esophagus?

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: The current gold standard in Barrett's esophagus monitoring consists of four-quadrant biopsies every 1-2 cm in accordance with the Seattle protocol. Adding brush cytology processed by digital image cytometry (DICM) may further increase the detection of patients with Barrett's esophagus who are at risk of neoplasia. The aim of the present study was to assess the additional diagnostic value and accuracy of DICM when added to the standard histological analysis in a cross-sectional multicenter study of patients with Barrett's esophagus in Switzerland. METHODS: One hundred sixty-four patients with Barrett's esophagus underwent 239 endoscopies with biopsy and brush cytology. DICM was carried out on 239 cytology specimens. Measures of the test accuracy of DICM (relative risk, sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios) were obtained by dichotomizing the histopathology results (high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma vs. all others) and DICM results (aneuploidy/intermediate pattern vs. diploidy). RESULTS: DICM revealed diploidy in 83% of 239 endoscopies, an intermediate pattern in 8.8%, and aneuploidy in 8.4%. An intermediate DICM result carried a relative risk (RR) of 12 and aneuploidy a RR of 27 for high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma. Adding DICM to the standard biopsy protocol, a pathological cytometry result (aneuploid or intermediate) was found in 25 of 239 endoscopies (11%; 18 patients) with low-risk histology (no high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma). During follow-up of 14 of these 18 patients, histological deterioration was seen in 3 (21%). CONCLUSION: DICM from brush cytology may add important information to a standard biopsy protocol by identifying a subgroup of BE-patients with high-risk cellular abnormalities.

Rates of cultural change and patterns of cultural accumulation in stochastic models of social transmission.

Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.

Evaluation of adding a second marker to overcome Staphylococcus aureus spa typing homoplasies.

The utility of sequencing a second highly variable locus in addition to the spa gene (e.g., double-locus sequence typing [DLST]) was investigated to overcome limitations of a Staphylococcus aureus single-locus typing method. Although adding a second locus seemed to increase discriminatory power, it was not sufficient to definitively infer evolutionary relationships within a single multilocus sequence type (ST-5).

Detection of Optimal Models in Parameter Space with Support Vector Machines

The paper proposes an approach aimed at detecting optimal model parameter combinations to achieve the most representative description of uncertainty in the model performance. A classification problem is posed to find the regions of good fitting models according to the values of a cost function. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification in the parameter space is applied to decide if a forward model simulation is to be computed for a particular generated model. SVM is particularly designed to tackle classification problems in high-dimensional space in a non-parametric and non-linear way. SVM decision boundaries determine the regions that are subject to the largest uncertainty in the cost function classification, and, therefore, provide guidelines for further iterative exploration of the model space. The proposed approach is illustrated by a synthetic example of fluid flow through porous media, which features highly variable response due to the parameter values' combination.

Molecular machines governing exocytosis of synaptic vesicles.

Calcium-dependent exocytosis of synaptic vesicles mediates the release of neurotransmitters. Important proteins in this process have been identified such as the SNAREs, synaptotagmins, complexins, Munc18 and Munc13. Structural and functional studies have yielded a wealth of information about the physiological role of these proteins. However, it has been surprisingly difficult to arrive at a unified picture of the molecular sequence of events from vesicle docking to calcium-triggered membrane fusion. Using mainly a biochemical and biophysical perspective, we briefly survey the molecular mechanisms in an attempt to functionally integrate the key proteins into the emerging picture of the neuronal fusion machine.

Improving the prediction of plant species distribution and community composition by adding edaphic to topo-climatic variables

Questions Soil properties have been widely shown to influence plant growth and distribution. However, the degree to which edaphic variables can improve models based on topo-climatic variables is still unclear. In this study, we tested the roles of seven edaphic variables, namely (1) pH; (2) the content of nitrogen and of (3) phosphorus; (4) silt; (5) sand; (6) clay and (7) carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, as predictors of species distribution models in an edaphically heterogeneous landscape. We also tested how the respective influence of these variables in the models is linked to different ecological and functional species characteristics. Location The Western Alps, Switzerland. Methods With four different modelling techniques, we built models for 115 plant species using topo-climatic variables alone and then topo-climatic variables plus each of the seven edaphic variables, one at a time. We evaluated the contribution of each edaphic variable by assessing the change in predictive power of the model. In a second step, we evaluated the importance of the two edaphic variables that yielded the largest increase in predictive power in one final set of models for each species. Third, we explored the change in predictive power and the importance of variables across plant functional groups. Finally, we assessed the influence of the edaphic predictors on the prediction of community composition by stacking the models for all species and comparing the predicted communities with the observed community. Results Among the set of edaphic variables studied, pH and nitrogen content showed the highest contributions to improvement of the predictive power of the models, as well as the predictions of community composition. When considering all topo-climatic and edaphic variables together, pH was the second most important variable after degree-days. The changes in model results caused by edaphic predictors were dependent on species characteristics. The predictions for the species that have a low specific leaf area, and acidophilic preferences, tolerating low soil pH and high humus content, showed the largest improvement by the addition of pH and nitrogen in the model. Conclusions pH was an important predictor variable for explaining species distribution and community composition of the mountain plants considered in our study. pH allowed more precise predictions for acidophilic species. This variable should not be neglected in the construction of species distribution models in areas with contrasting edaphic conditions.

La coordination des dirigeants économiques face à la financiarisation : gouvernance d'entreprise, relations industrielles et élites dirigeantes dans l'industrie suisse des machines, de l'électrotechnique et de la métallurgie (1970-2008)

Résumé Cette recherche analyse les transformations de la gouvernance d'entreprise et des relations industrielles entre 1970 et 2008 dans le contexte suisse, en mettant l'accent sur les changements survenus depuis les années 1990. Elle se centre sur le secteur de l'industrie des machines, de l'électrotechnique et de la métallurgie -noyau historique du capitalisme helvétique et principal employeur et exportateur industriel du pays - et discute l'hypothèse de la convergence des économies coordonnées vers le modèle libéral. Elle examine d'abord les formes de coordination hors-marché qui se sont consolidées entre les élites économiques suisses au cours de la période d'après-guerre. Les stratégies d'innovation incrémentale des grandes sociétés étaient soutenues par une gouvernance marquée par la faible pression des marchés des capitaux, en raison notamment de la forte concentration de l'actionnariat, de mécanismes protectionnistes en matière d'accès au contrôle des sociétés, ainsi que d'une grande interdépendance entre banques et entreprises. Cette interdépendance apparaît dans la forte densité du réseau d'interconnexions des Conseils d'administration, où les principales banques tiennent une place centrale. Le réseau met également en relation les sociétés du secteur entre elles, ainsi qu'avec des firmes actives sur d'autres marchés, ce qui témoigne de l'irréductibilité des stratégies industrielles à une pure logique de compétition centrée sur les marchés. Les stratégies à long terme du management peuvent également s'appuyer sur un système pacifié de relations industrielles, caractérisé par l'autorégulation des acteurs privés dans le cadre d'un partenariat social de branche entre des associations aux stratégies modérées, « néocorporatistes ». Nous analysons alors l'impact de la libéralisation et de la financiarisation de l'économie suisse sur la coordination des élites économiques durant les années 1990. Nous montrons que l'affirmation des fonds d'investissement a déstabilisé le système traditionnel de gouvernance d'entreprise. Ce dernier a ainsi été marqué par l'émergence d'un marché pour le contrôle de l'entreprise -fin du «capital patient » -, la dissolution de l'interdépendance entre banques et industries et plus globalement des formes de coordination hors-marché reposant sur le réseau d'interconnexions des Conseils d'administration, ainsi que par de profondes restructurations des grandes sociétés orientées vers la création de richesse pour les actionnaires. La recherche explore alors les logiques d'interactions entre la sphère de la gouvernance d'entreprise et celle des relations industrielles, l'affirmation du capital financier faisant pression sur le partenariat social dans le sens d'une flexibilisation et déréglementation du marché du travail. Par ailleurs, nous mettons en perspective le rôle central des élites dans le changement institutionnel. Loin de subir la pression des actionnaires, les préférences d'une nouvelle élite managériale au profil financier ont convergé avec les intérêts des investisseurs dans le processus de financiarisation. Ces préférences ont également participé à l'érosion du partenariat social de branche. Du côté syndical, l'émergence -ici aussi - d'une nouvelle élite, académique et issue de la gauche politique, au cours des années 1990, a remis en cause les recettes de l'ancienne génération de syndicalistes ouvriers. La principale association du secteur a ainsi diversifié ses registres d'action en investissant la sphère politique et en relativisant la paix absolue du travail, deux stratégies activement rejetées par le syndicat au cours du régime de croissance d'après-guerre. Tout en mettant la sociologie des élites au service d'une meilleure compréhension des processus de changement institutionnel dans les capitalismes contemporains, cette recherche souligne des logiques de changement différentes dans les sphères sous revue :changement disruptif dans la gouvernance d'entreprise, incrémentai dans les relations industrielles. L'analyse s'est appuyée sur le croisement de différentes méthodes : analyse documentaire, entretiens semi-directifs, analyse du parcours et profil des élites, analyse de réseau, études de cas.

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.