Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Diagnostic accuracy of free and total metanephrines in plasma and fractionated metanephrines in urine of patients with pheochromocytoma.

BACKGROUND: Plasma free and urinary metanephrines are recognized biomarkers for the assessment of pheochromocytoma. Plasma total metanephrines with a long half-life may represent another useful biomarker. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performances of plasma total metanephrines alone or combined with free metanephrines and fractionated 24-h urinary metanephrines. METHODS: A retrospective, case-control diagnostic test study was conducted between 1999 and 2007 in two university hospitals in Switzerland and two institutions in France. The patients included 46 cases with histologically proven pheochromocytoma, and 181 controls suspected of tumor with negative investigations and 3-year follow-up. None had renal dysfunction. Sensitivity and specificity were compared after expressing each measurement result as a ratio over its upper reference limit, adding the ratios of normetanephrine and metanephrine, and defining cut-off values of 1 or 2 for this sum. RESULTS: Applying a cut-off value of 1, plasma free and total metanephrines and urinary fractionated metanephrines had similar sensitivities of 96% (95% confidence interval, 86-99%), 95% (85-99%), and 95% (84-99%) along with similar specificities of 89% (83-94%), 91% (84-95%), and 86% (80-91%). A cut-off of 2 for the sum of ratios over reference limit improves the specificity, and it can be used for a confirmation test based on another biomarker taken among the three biomarkers. CONCLUSION: All three metanephrine-based tests perform equivalently for diagnosing pheochromocytoma in the absence of renal insufficiency, and can be conveniently associated two by two for confirming/excluding tumor.

HIV behavioural surveillance in Switzerland: trends in drug consumption, injection and syringe distribution, 1993-2011

Background: As part of the second generation surveillance system for HIV/Aids in Switzerland, repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 1993, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2011 among attenders of all low threshold facilities (LTFs) with needle exchange programmes and/or supervised drug consumption rooms for injection or inhalation. The number of syringes distributed to the injectors has also been measured annually since 2000. Distribution in other settings, such as pharmacies, is also monitored nationally. Methods: Periodic surveys of LTFs have been conducted using an interviewer/self-administered questionnaire structured along four themes: socio-demographic characteristics, drug consumption, risk/preventive behaviour and health. Analysis is restricted to attenders who had injected drugs during their lifetime (IDU´s). Pearson's chi-square test and trend analysis were conducted on annual aggregated data. Trend significance was assessed using Stata's non parametric test nptrend. Results: Median age of IDU´s increased from 26 years in 1993 to 40 in 2011; most are men (78%). Total yearly number of syringes distributed by LTFs has decreased by 44% in 10 years. Use of cocaine has increased (Table 1). Injection, regular use of heroin and borrowing of syringes/needles have decreased, while sharing of other material remains stable. There are fewer new injectors; more IDU´s report substitution treatment. Most attenders had ever been tested for HIV (90% in 1993, 94% in 2011). Reported prevalence of HIV remained stable around 10%; that of HCV decreased from 62% in 2000 to 42% in 2011. Conclusions: Overall, findings indicate a decrease in injection as a means of drug consumption in that population. This interpretation is supported by data from other sources, such as a national decrease in distribution from other delivery points. Switzerland's behavioural surveillance system is sustainable and allows the HIV epidemic to be monitored among this hard-to-reach population, providing information for planning and evaluation.

Red cell distribution width does not predict stroke severity or functional outcome.

INTRODUCTION: Red cell distribution width was recently identified as a predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with previous stroke. Red cell distribution width is also higher in patients with stroke compared with those without. However, there are no data on the association of red cell distribution width, assessed during the acute phase of ischemic stroke, with stroke severity and functional outcome. In the present study, we sought to investigate this relationship and ascertain the main determinants of red cell distribution width in this population. METHODS: We used data from the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne for patients between January 2003 and December 2008. Red cell distribution width was generated at admission by the Sysmex XE-2100 automated cell counter from ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid blood samples stored at room temperature until measurement. An χ(2) -test was performed to compare frequencies of categorical variables between different red cell distribution width quartiles, and one-way analysis of variance for continuous variables. The effect of red cell distribution width on severity and functional outcome was investigated in univariate and multivariate robust regression analysis. Level of significance was set at 95%. RESULTS: There were 1504 patients (72±15·76 years, 43·9% females) included in the analysis. Red cell distribution width was significantly associated to NIHSS (β-value=0·24, P=0·01) and functional outcome (odds ratio=10·73 for poor outcome, P<0·001) at univariate analysis but not multivariate. Prehospital Rankin score (β=0·19, P<0·001), serum creatinine (β=0·008, P<0·001), hemoglobin (β=-0·009, P<0·001), mean platelet volume (β=0·09, P<0·05), age (β=0·02, P<0·001), low ejection fraction (β=0·66, P<0·001) and antihypertensive treatment (β=0·32, P<0·001) were independent determinants of red cell distribution width. CONCLUSIONS: Red cell distribution width, assessed during the early phase of acute ischemic stroke, does not predict severity or functional outcome.

Regulation of free corticosterone and CBG capacity under different environmental conditions in altricial nestlings.

The concentration of circulating glucocorticoids is regulated in response to environmental and endogenous conditions. Total circulating corticosterone, the main glucocorticoid in birds, consists of a fraction which is bound to corticosterone-binding globulins (CBG) and a free fraction. There is increasing evidence that the environment modulates free corticosterone levels through varying the concentration of CBG, but experimental evidence is lacking. To test the hypothesis that the regulation of chronic stress in response to endogenous and environmental conditions involves variation in both corticosterone release and CBG capacity, we performed an experiment with barn owl (Tyto alba) nestlings in two different years with pronounced differences in environmental conditions and in nestlings experimentally fed ad libitum. In half of the individuals we implanted a corticosterone-releasing pellet to artificially increase corticosterone levels and in the other half we implanted a placebo pellet. We then repeatedly collected blood samples to measure the change in total and free corticosterone levels as well as CBG capacity. The increase in circulating total corticosterone after artificial corticosterone administration varied with environmental conditions and with the food regime of the nestlings. The highest total corticosterone levels were found in nestlings growing up in poor environmental conditions and the lowest in ad libitum fed nestlings. CBG was highest in the year with poor environmental conditions, so that, contrary to total corticosterone, free corticosterone levels were low under poor environmental conditions. When nestlings were fed ad libitum total corticosterone, CBG and free corticosterone did not increase when administering corticosterone. These results suggest that depending on the individual history an animal experienced during development the HPA-axis is regulated differently.

A system to test the toxicity of brake wear particles

Fine particulate matter from traffic increases mortality and morbidity. An important source of traffic particles is brake wear. American studies reported cars to emit break wear particles at a rate of about 11mg/km to 20mg/km of driven distance. A German study estimated that break wear contributes about 12.5% to 21% of the total traffic particle emissions. The goal of this study was to build a system that allows the study of brake wear particle emissions during different braking behaviours of different car and brake types. The particles should be characterize in terms of size, number, metal, and elemental and organic carbon composition. In addition, the influence of different deceleration schemes on the particle composition and size distribution should be studied. Finally, this system should allow exposing human cell cultures to these particles. An exposure-box (0.25 cubic-m volume) was built that can be mounted around a car's braking system. This allows exposing cells to fresh brake wear particles. Concentrations of particle numbers, mass and surface, metals, and carbon compounds were quantified. Tests were conducted with A549 lung epithelial cells. Five different cars and two typical braking behaviours (full stop and normal deceleration) were tested. Particle number and size distribution was analysed for the first six minutes. In this time, two braking events occurred. Full stop produced significantly higher particle concentrations than normal deceleration (average of 23'000 vs. 10'400 #/cm3, p= 0.016). The particle number distribution was bi-modal with one peak at 60 to 100 nm (depending on the tested car and braking behaviour) and a second peak at 200 to 400 nm. Metal concentrations varied depending on the tested car type. Iron (range of 163 to 15'600 μg/m3) and Manganese (range of 0.9 to 135 μg/m3) were present in all samples, while Copper was absent in some samples (<6 to 1220 μg/m3). The overall "fleet" metal ratio was Fe:Cu:Mn = 128:14:1. Temperature and humidity varied little. A549-cells were successfully exposed in the various experimental settings and retained their viability. Culture supernatant was stored and cell culture samples were fixated to test for inflammatory response. Analysis of these samples is ongoing. The established system allowed testing brake wear particle emissions from real-world cars. The large variability of chemical composition and emitted amounts of brake wear particles between car models seems to be related to differences between brake pad compositions of different producers. Initial results suggest that the conditions inside the exposure box allow exposing human lung epithelial cells to freshly produced brake wear particles.

Fat-free mass index and fat mass index percentiles in Caucasians aged 18-98 y.

OBJECTIVE: To determine reference values for fat-free mass index (FFMI) and fat mass index (FMI) in a large Caucasian group of apparently healthy subjects, as a function of age and gender and to develop percentile distribution for these two parameters. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study in which bioelectrical impedance analysis (50 kHz) was measured (using tetrapolar electrodes and cross-validated formulae by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in order to calculate FFMI (fat-free mass/height squared) and FMI (fat mass/height squared). SUBJECTS: A total of 5635 apparently healthy adults from a mixed non-randomly selected Caucasian population in Switzerland (2986 men and 2649 women), varying in age from 24 to 98 y. RESULTS: The median FFMI (18-34 y) were 18.9 kg/m(2) in young males and 15.4 kg/m(2) in young females. No difference with age in males and a modest increase in females were observed. The median FMI was 4.0 kg/m(2) in males and 5.5 kg/m(2) in females. From young to elderly age categories, FMI progressively rose by an average of 55% in males and 62% in females, compared to an increase in body mass index (BMI) of 9 and 19% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Reference intervals for FFMI and FMI could be of practical value for the clinical evaluation of a deficit in fat-free mass with or without excess fat mass (sarcopenic obesity) for a given age category, complementing the classical concept of body mass index (BMI) in a more qualitative manner. In contrast to BMI, similar reference ranges seems to be utilizable for FFMI with advancing age, in particular in men.

Free-breathing renal magnetic resonance angiography with steady-state free-precession and slab-selective spin inversion combined with radial k-space sampling and water-selective excitation.

The impact of radial k-space sampling and water-selective excitation on a novel navigator-gated cardiac-triggered slab-selective inversion prepared 3D steady-state free-precession (SSFP) renal MR angiography (MRA) sequence was investigated. Renal MRA was performed on a 1.5-T MR system using three inversion prepared SSFP approaches: Cartesian (TR/TE: 5.7/2.8 ms, FA: 85 degrees), radial (TR/TE: 5.5/2.7 ms, FA: 85 degrees) SSFP, and radial SSFP combined with water-selective excitation (TR/TE: 9.9/4.9 ms, FA: 85 degrees). Radial data acquisition lead to significantly reduced motion artifacts (P < 0.05). SNR and CNR were best using Cartesian SSFP (P < 0.05). Vessel sharpness and vessel length were comparable in all sequences. The addition of a water-selective excitation could not improve image quality. In conclusion, radial k-space sampling reduces motion artifacts significantly in slab-selective inversion prepared renal MRA, while SNR and CNR are decreased. The addition of water-selective excitation could not improve the lower CNR in radial scanning.

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Long-term ex vivo expansion of human fetal liver primitive haematopoietic progenitor cells in stroma-free cultures

Successful expansion of haematopoietic cells in ex vivo cultures will have important applications in transplantation, gene therapy, immunotherapy and potentially also in the production of non-haematopoietic cell types. Haematopoietic stem cells (HSC), with their capacity to both self-renew and differentiate into all blood lineages, represent the ideal target for expansion protocols. However, human HSC are rare, poorly characterized phenotypically and genotypically, and difficult to test functionally. Defining optimal culture parameters for ex vivo expansion has been a major challenge. We devised a simple and reproducible stroma-free liquid culture system enabling long-term expansion of putative haematopoietic progenitors contained within frozen human fetal liver (FL) crude cell suspensions. Starting from a small number of total nucleated cells, a massive haematopoietic cell expansion, reaching > 1013-fold the input cell number after approximately 300 d of culture, was consistently achieved. Cells with a primitive phenotype were present throughout the culture and also underwent a continuous expansion. Moreover, the capacity for multilineage lymphomyeloid differentiation, as well as the recloning capacity of primitive myeloid progenitors, was maintained in culture. With its better proliferative potential as compared with adult sources, FL represents a promising alternative source of HSC and the culture system described here should be useful for clinical applications.

Practical considerations for conducting ecotoxicity test methods with manufactured nanomaterials: what have we learnt so far?

This review paper reports the consensus of a technical workshop hosted by the European network, NanoImpactNet (NIN). The workshop aimed to review the collective experience of working at the bench with manufactured nanomaterials (MNMs), and to recommend modifications to existing experimental methods and OECD protocols. Current procedures for cleaning glassware are appropriate for most MNMs, although interference with electrodes may occur. Maintaining exposure is more difficult with MNMs compared to conventional chemicals. A metal salt control is recommended for experiments with metallic MNMs that may release free metal ions. Dispersing agents should be avoided, but if they must be used, then natural or synthetic dispersing agents are possible, and dispersion controls essential. Time constraints and technology gaps indicate that full characterisation of test media during ecotoxicity tests is currently not practical. Details of electron microscopy, dark-field microscopy, a range of spectroscopic methods (EDX, XRD, XANES, EXAFS), light scattering techniques (DLS, SLS) and chromatography are discussed. The development of user-friendly software to predict particle behaviour in test media according to DLVO theory is in progress, and simple optical methods are available to estimate the settling behaviour of suspensions during experiments. However, for soil matrices such simple approaches may not be applicable. Alternatively, a Critical Body Residue approach may be taken in which body concentrations in organisms are related to effects, and toxicity thresholds derived. For microbial assays, the cell wall is a formidable barrier to MNMs and end points that rely on the test substance penetrating the cell may be insensitive. Instead assays based on the cell envelope should be developed for MNMs. In algal growth tests, the abiotic factors that promote particle aggregation in the media (e.g. ionic strength) are also important in providing nutrients, and manipulation of the media to control the dispersion may also inhibit growth. Controls to quantify shading effects, and precise details of lighting regimes, shaking or mixing should be reported in algal tests. Photosynthesis may be more sensitive than traditional growth end points for algae and plants. Tests with invertebrates should consider non-chemical toxicity from particle adherence to the organisms. The use of semi-static exposure methods with fish can reduce the logistical issues of waste water disposal and facilitate aspects of animal husbandry relevant to MMNs. There are concerns that the existing bioaccumulation tests are conceptually flawed for MNMs and that new test(s) are required. In vitro testing strategies, as exemplified by genotoxicity assays, can be modified for MNMs, but the risk of false negatives in some assays is highlighted. In conclusion, most protocols will require some modifications and recommendations are made to aid the researcher at the bench. [Authors]

Swain: Stata module to correct the SEM chi-square overidentification test in small sample sizes or complex models. Statistical Software Components S457617, Boston College Department of Economics.

Swain corrects the chi-square overidentification test (i.e., likelihood ratio test of fit) for structural equation models whethr with or without latent variables. The chi-square statistic is asymptotically correct; however, it does not behave as expected in small samples and/or when the model is complex (cf. Herzog, Boomsma, & Reinecke, 2007). Thus, particularly in situations where the ratio of sample size (n) to the number of parameters estimated (p) is relatively small (i.e., the p to n ratio is large), the chi-square test will tend to overreject correctly specified models. To obtain a closer approximation to the distribution of the chi-square statistic, Swain (1975) developed a correction; this scaling factor, which converges to 1 asymptotically, is multiplied with the chi-square statistic. The correction better approximates the chi-square distribution resulting in more appropriate Type 1 reject error rates (see Herzog & Boomsma, 2009; Herzog, et al., 2007).

Genome organization and gene expression shape the transposable element distribution in the Drosophila melanogaster euchromatin.

The distribution of transposable elements (TEs) in a genome reflects a balance between insertion rate and selection against new insertions. Understanding the distribution of TEs therefore provides insights into the forces shaping the organization of genomes. Past research has shown that TEs tend to accumulate in genomic regions with low gene density and low recombination rate. However, little is known about the factors modulating insertion rates across the genome and their evolutionary significance. One candidate factor is gene expression, which has been suggested to increase local insertion rate by rendering DNA more accessible. We test this hypothesis by comparing the TE density around germline- and soma-expressed genes in the euchromatin of Drosophila melanogaster. Because only insertions that occur in the germline are transmitted to the next generation, we predicted a higher density of TEs around germline-expressed genes than soma-expressed genes. We show that the rate of TE insertions is greater near germline- than soma-expressed genes. However, this effect is partly offset by stronger selection for genome compactness (against excess noncoding DNA) on germline-expressed genes. We also demonstrate that the local genome organization in clusters of coexpressed genes plays a fundamental role in the genomic distribution of TEs. Our analysis shows that-in addition to recombination rate-the distribution of TEs is shaped by the interaction of gene expression and genome organization. The important role of selection for compactness sheds a new light on the role of TEs in genome evolution. Instead of making genomes grow passively, TEs are controlled by the forces shaping genome compactness, most likely linked to the efficiency of gene expression or its complexity and possibly their interaction with mechanisms of TE silencing.

Ocular and systemic bio-distribution of rhodamine-conjugated liposomes loaded with VIP injected into the vitreous of Lewis rats.

PURPOSE: Local delivery of therapeutic molecules encapsulated within liposomes is a promising method to treat ocular inflammation. The purpose of the present study was to define the biodistribution of rhodamine-conjugated liposomes loaded with vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP), an immunosuppressive neuropeptide, following their intravitreal (IVT) injection in normal rats. METHODS: Healthy seven- to eight-week-old Lewis male rats were injected into the vitreous with empty rhodamine-conjugated liposomes (Rh-Lip) or with VIP-loaded Rh-Lip (VIP-Rh-Lip; 50 mM of lipids with an encapsulation efficiency of 3.0+/-0.4 mmol VIP/mol lipids). Twenty-four h after IVT injection, the eyes, the cervical, mesenteric, and inguinal lymph nodes (LN), and spleen were collected. The phenotype and distribution of cells internalizing Rh-Lip and VIP-Rh-Lip were studied. Determination of VIP expression in ocular tissues and lymphoid organs and interactions with T cells in cervical LN was performed on whole mounted tissues and frozen tissue sections by immunofluorescence and confocal microscopy. RESULTS: In the eye, 24 h following IVT injection, fluorescent liposomes (Rh-Lip and VIP-Rh-Lip) were detected mainly in the posterior segment of the eye (vitreous, inner layer of the retina) and to a lesser extent at the level of the iris root and ciliary body. Liposomes were internalized by activated retinal Müller glial cells, ocular tissue resident macrophages, and rare infiltrating activated macrophages. In addition, fluorescent liposomes were found in the episclera and conjunctiva where free VIP expression was also detected. In lymphoid organs, Rh-Lip and VIP-Rh-Lip were distributed almost exclusively in the cervical lymph nodes (LN) with only a few Rh-Lip-positive cells detected in the spleen and mesenteric LN and none in the inguinal LN. In the cervical LN, Rh-Lip were internalized by resident ED3-positive macrophages adjacent to CD4 and CD8-positive T lymphocytes. Some of these T lymphocytes in close contact with macrophages containing VIP-Rh-Lip expressed VIP. CONCLUSIONS: Liposomes are specifically internalized by retinal Müller glial cells and resident macrophages in the eye. A limited passage of fluorescent liposomes from the vitreous to the spleen via the conventional outflow pathway and the venous circulation was detected. The majority of fluorescent liposomes deposited in the conjunctiva following IVT injection reached the subcapsular sinus of the cervical LN via conjuntival lymphatics. In the cervical LN, Rh-Lip were internalized by resident subcapsular sinus macrophages adjacent to T lymphocytes. Detection of VIP in both macrophages and T cells in cervical LN suggests that IVT injection of VIP-Rh-Lip may increase ocular immune privilege by modulating the loco-regional immune environment. In conclusion, our observations suggest that IVT injection of VIP-loaded liposomes is a promising therapeutic strategy to dampen ocular inflammation by modulating macrophage and T cell activation mainly in the loco-regional immune system.