Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Robustness of Drosophila early embryo and wing imaginal disc development

Within a developing organism, cells require information on where they are in order to differentiate into the correct cell-type. Pattern formation is the process by which cells acquire and process positional cues and thus determine their fate. This can be achieved by the production and release of a diffusible signaling molecule, called a morphogen, which forms a concentration gradient: exposure to different morphogen levels leads to the activation of specific signaling pathways. Thus, in response to the morphogen gradient, cells start to express different sets of genes, forming domains characterized by a unique combination of differentially expressed genes. As a result, a pattern of cell fates and specification emerges.Though morphogens have been known for decades, it is not yet clear how these gradients form and are interpreted in order to yield highly robust patterns of gene expression. During my PhD thesis, I investigated the properties of Bicoid (Bcd) and Decapentaplegic (Dpp), two morphogens involved in the patterning of the anterior-posterior axis of Drosophila embryo and wing primordium, respectively. In particular, I have been interested in understanding how the pattern proportions are maintained across embryos of different sizes or within a growing tissue. This property is commonly referred to as scaling and is essential for yielding functional organs or organisms. In order to tackle these questions, I analysed fluorescence images showing the pattern of gene expression domains in the early embryo and wing imaginal disc. After characterizing the extent of these domains in a quantitative and systematic manner, I introduced and applied a new scaling measure in order to assess how well proportions are maintained. I found that scaling emerged as a universal property both in early embryos (at least far away from the Bcd source) and in wing imaginal discs (across different developmental stages). Since we were also interested in understanding the mechanisms underlying scaling and how it is transmitted from the morphogen to the target genes down in the signaling cascade, I also quantified scaling in mutant flies where this property could be disrupted. While scaling is largely conserved in embryos with altered bcd dosage, my modeling suggests that Bcd trapping by the nuclei as well as pre-steady state decoding of the morphogen gradient are essential to ensure precise and scaled patterning of the Bcd signaling cascade. In the wing imaginal disc, it appears that as the disc grows, the Dpp response expands and scales with the tissue size. Interestingly, scaling is not perfect at all positions in the field. The scaling of the target gene domains is best where they have a function; Spalt, for example, scales best at the position in the anterior compartment where it helps to form one of the anterior veins of the wing. Analysis of mutants for pentagone, a transcriptional target of Dpp that encodes a secreted feedback regulator of the pathway, indicates that Pentagone plays a key role in scaling the Dpp gradient activity.

Human gustation: when the brain has taste.

What we put into our mouths can nourish or kill us. A new study uses state-of-the-art electroencephalogram decoding to detail how we and our brains know what we taste.

Neural detection of complex sound sequences in the absence of consciousness.

The neural response to a violation of sequences of identical sounds is a typical example of the brain's sensitivity to auditory regularities. Previous literature interprets this effect as a pre-attentive and unconscious processing of sensory stimuli. By contrast, a violation to auditory global regularities, i.e. based on repeating groups of sounds, is typically detectable when subjects can consciously perceive them. Here, we challenge the notion that global detection implies consciousness by testing the neural response to global violations in a group of 24 patients with post-anoxic coma (three females, age range 45-87 years), treated with mild therapeutic hypothermia and sedation. By applying a decoding analysis to electroencephalographic responses to standard versus deviant sound sequences, we found above-chance decoding performance in 10 of 24 patients (Wilcoxon signed-rank test, P < 0.001), despite five of them being mildly hypothermic, sedated and unarousable. Furthermore, consistently with previous findings based on the mismatch negativity the progression of this decoding performance was informative of patients' chances of awakening (78% predictive of awakening). Our results show for the first time that detection of global regularities at neural level exists despite a deeply unconscious state.

Experience-based Auditory Predictions Modulate Brain Activity to Silence as Do Real Sounds.

Interactions between stimuli's acoustic features and experience-based internal models of the environment enable listeners to compensate for the disruptions in auditory streams that are regularly encountered in noisy environments. However, whether auditory gaps are filled in predictively or restored a posteriori remains unclear. The current lack of positive statistical evidence that internal models can actually shape brain activity as would real sounds precludes accepting predictive accounts of filling-in phenomenon. We investigated the neurophysiological effects of internal models by testing whether single-trial electrophysiological responses to omitted sounds in a rule-based sequence of tones with varying pitch could be decoded from the responses to real sounds and by analyzing the ERPs to the omissions with data-driven electrical neuroimaging methods. The decoding of the brain responses to different expected, but omitted, tones in both passive and active listening conditions was above chance based on the responses to the real sound in active listening conditions. Topographic ERP analyses and electrical source estimations revealed that, in the absence of any stimulation, experience-based internal models elicit an electrophysiological activity different from noise and that the temporal dynamics of this activity depend on attention. We further found that the expected change in pitch direction of omitted tones modulated the activity of left posterior temporal areas 140-200 msec after the onset of omissions. Collectively, our results indicate that, even in the absence of any stimulation, internal models modulate brain activity as do real sounds, indicating that auditory filling in can be accounted for by predictive activity.

Sensing Gram-negative bacteria: a phylogenetic perspective.

Gram-negative bacteria represent a major group of pathogens that infect all eukaryotes from plants to mammals. Gram-negative microbe-associated molecular patterns include lipopolysaccharides and peptidoglycans, major immunostimulatory determinants across phyla. Recent advances have furthered our understanding of Gram-negative detection beyond the well-defined pattern recognition receptors such as TLR4. A B-type lectin receptor for LPS and Lysine-motif containing receptors for peptidoglycans were recently added to the plant arsenal. Caspases join the ranks of mammalian cytosolic immune detectors by binding LPS, and make TLR4 redundant for septic shock. Fascinating bacterial evasion mechanisms lure the host into tolerance or promote inter-bacterial competition. Our review aims to cover recent advances on bacterial messages and host decoding systems across phyla, and highlight evolutionarily recurrent strategies.