What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

Prevention du diabète de type 2: état des connaissances [Prevention of type 2 diabetes: where do we stand?]

It is anticipated that one out of 3 children born in the year 2000 in the United States may develop diabetes. In Switzerland, a population based study in the city of Lausanne (CoLaus) has shown that about 30% of the participants have abnormal glucose homeostasis, and that the prevalence of obesity in the younger age groups has doubled since 1992. In this review, we describe clinical and biological factors associated with an increased risk to develop diabetes and summarize the most important intervention studies that have shown a beneficial effect in the prevention of diabetes. While life style modifications should be recommended for everybody, the place of pharmacological interventions (oral hypoglycemic agents, blood pressure and cholesterol lowering agents) is more controversial.

The intensity of human body odors and the MHC: should we expect a link?

It is now well established that genes within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) somehow affect the production of body odors in several vertebrates, including humans. Here we discuss whether variation in the intensity of body odors may be influenced by the MHC. In order to examine this question, we have to control for MHC-linked odor perception on the smeller's side. Such a control is necessary because the perception of pleasantness and intensity seem to be confounded, and the causalities are still unsolved. It has previously been found that intense odors are scored as less pleasant if the signaler and the receiver are of MHC-dissimilar type, but not if they are of MHC similar type. We argue, and first data suggest, that an effect of the degree of MHC-heterozygosity and odor intensity is likely (MHC-homozygotes may normally smell more intense), while there is currently no strong argument for other possible links between the MHC and body odor intensity.

Estimation of glomerular filtration rate in hospitalised patients: are we overestimating renal function?

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY AND PRINCIPLES: Estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in hospitalised patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is important for drug prescription but it remains a difficult task. The purpose of this study was to investigate the reliability of selected algorithms based on serum creatinine, cystatin C and beta-trace protein to estimate GFR and the potential added advantage of measuring muscle mass by bioimpedance. In a prospective unselected group of patients hospitalised in a general internal medicine ward with CKD, GFR was evaluated using inulin clearance as the gold standard and the algorithms of Cockcroft, MDRD, Larsson (cystatin C), White (beta-trace) and MacDonald (creatinine and muscle mass by bioimpedance). 69 patients were included in the study. Median age (interquartile range) was 80 years (73-83); weight 74.7 kg (67.0-85.6), appendicular lean mass 19.1 kg (14.9-22.3), serum creatinine 126 μmol/l (100-149), cystatin C 1.45 mg/l (1.19-1.90), beta-trace protein 1.17 mg/l (0.99-1.53) and GFR measured by inulin 30.9 ml/min (22.0-43.3). The errors in the estimation of GFR and the area under the ROC curves (95% confidence interval) relative to inulin were respectively: Cockcroft 14.3 ml/min (5.55-23.2) and 0.68 (0.55-0.81), MDRD 16.3 ml/min (6.4-27.5) and 0.76 (0.64-0.87), Larsson 12.8 ml/min (4.50-25.3) and 0.82 (0.72-0.92), White 17.6 ml/min (11.5-31.5) and 0.75 (0.63-0.87), MacDonald 32.2 ml/min (13.9-45.4) and 0.65 (0.52-0.78). Currently used algorithms overestimate GFR in hospitalised patients with CKD. As a consequence eGFR targeted prescriptions of renal-cleared drugs, might expose patients to overdosing. The best results were obtained with the Larsson algorithm. The determination of muscle mass by bioimpedance did not provide significant contributions.

Plasmacytoid dendritic cells in melanoma: can we revert bad into good?

Tumor-infiltrating plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) promote an immunosuppressive milieu that drives tumor growth in melanoma. This phenomenon typically results from the lack of appropriate pDC activation signals in the tumor microenvironment, but it is also actively controlled by tumor cells, which have evolved strategies to inhibit type I IFN production by pDCs. In this issue, Camisaschi et al. identify a new mechanism in which tumors avoid type I IFN production by triggering LAG-3-dependent activation of pDCs. Combination therapies that restore pDC functionality and trigger innate activation to produce type I IFN should be envisaged to induce effective antitumor immunity.

Prevention of microalbuminuria in patients with type 2 diabetes: what do we know?

Cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease are epidemic throughout industrialized societies. Diabetes leads to premature cardiovascular disease and is regarded by many as the most common etiological factor for chronic kidney disease. Because most studies of blood-pressure lowering agents in people with diabetes and hypertension have been conducted in individuals who already have some target organ damage, it is unclear whether earlier intervention could prevent or delay the onset of renal or systemic vascular disease. In early disease there is only a low possibility of observing cardiovascular or renal events; thus intervention trials in this population must rely on disease markers such as microalbuminuria. Accordingly, the authors review the evidence to support the use of microalbuminuria as a disease marker in diabetic patients based on its strong association with renal and cardiovascular events, and discuss recent trials that examine the impact of preventing or delaying the onset of microalbuminuria.

How Low Can We Go in Contrast-Enhanced CT Imaging of the Chest?: A Dose-Finding Cadaver Study Using the Model-based Iterative Image Reconstruction Approach.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Dose reduction may compromise patients because of a decrease of image quality. Therefore, the amount of dose savings in new dose-reduction techniques needs to be thoroughly assessed. To avoid repeated studies in one patient, chest computed tomography (CT) scans with different dose levels were performed in corpses comparing model-based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) as a tool to enhance image quality with current standard full-dose imaging. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-five human cadavers were scanned (CT HD750) after contrast medium injection at different, decreasing dose levels D0-D5 and respectively reconstructed with MBIR. The data at full-dose level, D0, have been additionally reconstructed with standard adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR), which represented the full-dose baseline reference (FDBR). Two radiologists independently compared image quality (IQ) in 3-mm multiplanar reformations for soft-tissue evaluation of D0-D5 to FDBR (-2, diagnostically inferior; -1, inferior; 0, equal; +1, superior; and +2, diagnostically superior). For statistical analysis, the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Wilcoxon test were used. RESULTS: Mean CT dose index values (mGy) were as follows: D0/FDBR = 10.1 ± 1.7, D1 = 6.2 ± 2.8, D2 = 5.7 ± 2.7, D3 = 3.5 ± 1.9, D4 = 1.8 ± 1.0, and D5 = 0.9 ± 0.5. Mean IQ ratings were as follows: D0 = +1.8 ± 0.2, D1 = +1.5 ± 0.3, D2 = +1.1 ± 0.3, D3 = +0.7 ± 0.5, D4 = +0.1 ± 0.5, and D5 = -1.2 ± 0.5. All values demonstrated a significant difference to baseline (P < .05), except mean IQ for D4 (P = .61). ICC was 0.91. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to ASIR, MBIR allowed for a significant dose reduction of 82% without impairment of IQ. This resulted in a calculated mean effective dose below 1 mSv.

Do brief alcohol motivational interventions work like we think they do?

BACKGROUND: Questions remain about how brief motivational interventions (BMIs) for unhealthy alcohol use work, and addressing these questions may be important for improving their efficacy. Therefore, we assessed the effects of various characteristics of BMIs on drinking outcomes across 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: Audio recordings of 314 BMIs were coded. We used the global rating scales of the Motivational Interviewing Skills Code (MISC) 2.1: counselor's acceptance, empathy, and motivational interviewing (MI) spirit, and patient's self-exploration were rated. MI proficiency was defined as counselor's rating scale scores ≥5. We also used the structure, confrontation, and advice subscale scores of the Therapy Process Rating Scale and the Working Alliance Inventory. We examined these process characteristics in interventions across 1 U.S. RCT of middle-aged medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use (n = 124) and 2 Swiss RCTs of young men with binge drinking in a nonclinical setting: Swiss-one (n = 62) and Swiss-two (n = 128). We assessed the associations between these characteristics and drinks/d reported by participants 3 to 6 months after study entry. RESULTS: In all 3 RCTs, mean MISC counselor's rating scales scores were consistent with MI proficiency. In overdispersed Poisson regression models, most BMI characteristics were not significantly associated with drinks/d in follow-up. In the U.S. RCT, confrontation and self-exploration were associated with more drinking. Giving advice was significantly associated with less drinking in the Swiss-one RCT. Contrary to expectations, MI spirit was not consistently associated with drinking across studies. CONCLUSIONS: Across different populations and settings, intervention characteristics viewed as central to efficacious BMIs were neither robust nor consistent predictors of drinking outcome. Although there may be alternative reasons why the level of MI processes was not predictive of outcomes in these studies (limited variability in scores), efforts to understand what makes BMIs efficacious may require attention to factors beyond intervention process characteristics typically examined.

Brain dysfunction in sepsis: what can we learn from cerebral perfusion studies?

Investigations on the relationship between sepsis, brain dysfunction, and cerebral perfusion are methodologically very difficult to perform. It is important to interpret the results of such studies in view of our limited ability to diagnose and quantify brain dysfunction and to consider our limited understanding of the mechanisms that lead to or are associated with brain dysfunction in sepsis.

Can we measure accurately the prevalence of doping?

Questionnaires are used in the majority of the studies ondoping prevalence in sport. Nevertheless, prevalence is noteasy to evaluate and previous epidemiologic studies demonstrateda wide variance. This variance has mostly beenexplained by sample differences. The way to evaluate dopingprevalence in the survey is questioned in this paper. Aquestionnaire was administered to 1810 amateur athletes(993 males, 817 females). Doping use was ascertained invarious ways, using different definitions of doping and typesof question in the survey. Depending on the definition ofdoping and the type of question used, the prevalence ofdoping obtained can differ enormously, between 1.3 and39.2% of athletes. Marijuana and drugs for asthma were thetwo banned substances most used. The majority of athletesoften ignored the banned list and did not use prohibitedsubstances to dope. Using various ways to question athletes,observing the usage of substances, cross checking the data,taking into account the aim of substances uses and thevarious definitions of doping are necessary to give morereliable prevalence of doping. Moreover, doping at anamateur level seems to be less of a sport problem than asocial problem.