Voting advice applications : impact on voting decisions in the 2011 Swiss national elections

In most democracies voting Advice Applications (VAAs) advising citizens which candidate or party they should vote for become more and more popular. It is therefore crucial to know more about the functioning and the effects of such tools. After some general remarks about the spread of these tools and their possible effects gathered so far in various studies, this paper presents the latest results from a research conducted in the course of the 2011 Swiss national elections. They confirm that VAAs can lead to better informed voters and are likely to have a positive impact on electoral turnout. Additionally it can be shown that the Swiss VAA smartvote made voters change their voting intention and that they voted for a different party. This was particularly advantageous for the Green Liberal Party. At the moment, only a minority of voters rely on the voting recommendation by smartvote. This might change dramatically with the introduction of e-voting. Once people can vote electronically, there are hardly any possibilities to prevent voters from transferring their selection of candidates based on the recommendation given by a VAA into the official electronic ballot paper. If this is possible, e-voting will become more popular than postal voting.

Automatic Mallampati Classification Using Active Appearance Models

Difficult tracheal intubation assessment is an important research topic in anesthesia as failed intubations are important causes of mortality in anesthetic practice. The modified Mallampati score is widely used, alone or in conjunction with other criteria, to predict the difficulty of intubation. This work presents an automatic method to assess the modified Mallampati score from an image of a patient with the mouth wide open. For this purpose we propose an active appearance models (AAM) based method and use linear support vector machines (SVM) to select a subset of relevant features obtained using the AAM. This feature selection step proves to be essential as it improves drastically the performance of classification, which is obtained using SVM with RBF kernel and majority voting. We test our method on images of 100 patients undergoing elective surgery and achieve 97.9% accuracy in the leave-one-out crossvalidation test and provide a key element to an automatic difficult intubation assessment system.

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The use of the Internet now has a specific purpose: to find information. Unfortunately, the amount of data available on the Internet is growing exponentially, creating what can be considered a nearly infinite and ever-evolving network with no discernable structure. This rapid growth has raised the question of how to find the most relevant information. Many different techniques have been introduced to address the information overload, including search engines, Semantic Web, and recommender systems, among others. Recommender systems are computer-based techniques that are used to reduce information overload and recommend products likely to interest a user when given some information about the user's profile. This technique is mainly used in e-Commerce to suggest items that fit a customer's purchasing tendencies. The use of recommender systems for e-Government is a research topic that is intended to improve the interaction among public administrations, citizens, and the private sector through reducing information overload on e-Government services. More specifically, e-Democracy aims to increase citizens' participation in democratic processes through the use of information and communication technologies. In this chapter, an architecture of a recommender system that uses fuzzy clustering methods for e-Elections is introduced. In addition, a comparison with the smartvote system, a Web-based Voting Assistance Application (VAA) used to aid voters in finding the party or candidate that is most in line with their preferences, is presented.

Fusion of Multi-Atlas Segmentations with Spatial Distribution Modeling

In recent years, multi-atlas fusion methods have gainedsignificant attention in medical image segmentation. Inthis paper, we propose a general Markov Random Field(MRF) based framework that can perform edge-preservingsmoothing of the labels at the time of fusing the labelsitself. More specifically, we formulate the label fusionproblem with MRF-based neighborhood priors, as an energyminimization problem containing a unary data term and apairwise smoothness term. We present how the existingfusion methods like majority voting, global weightedvoting and local weighted voting methods can be reframedto profit from the proposed framework, for generatingmore accurate segmentations as well as more contiguoussegmentations by getting rid of holes and islands. Theproposed framework is evaluated for segmenting lymphnodes in 3D head and neck CT images. A comparison ofvarious fusion algorithms is also presented.

Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.

Digitale politische Partizipation - Spannungsfeld zwischen MyPolitics und OurPolitics

Der Beitrag untersucht soziale und politische Aspekte digitaler politischer Partizipation. Einerseits müssen die Optionen für MyPolitics ausgeschöpft werden, indem Instrumente für elektronische Abstimmungen und Wahlen bereitgestellt werden. Andererseits sollte das Potenzial politischer Partizipation genutzt und Plattformen für OurPolitics gefördert werden. Solche Plattformen, ergänzt durch geeignete Matching-Verfahren, bringen Interessierte mit ähnlichen Anliegen zusammen und fördern politische Gestaltungskraft. Sie sind ein erster Schritt zum Public Memory einer digitalen Gesellschaft und bereichern nachfolgende Generationen mit ihrem Gedankengut.

Stability and change in party preferences.

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.

Does VAA popularity pay off ? : Smartvote users preferred candidates and their results in the 2007 Swiss federal elections

Voting is fundamental for democracy, however, this decisive democratic act requires quite an effort. Decision making at elections depends largely on the interest to gather information about candidates and parties, the effort to process the information at hand and the motivation to reach a vote choice. Especially in electoral systems with highly fragmented party systems and hundreds of candidates running for office, the process of decision making in the pre‐election sphere is highly demanding. In the age of information and communication technologies, new possibilities for gathering and processing such information are available. Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) provide guidance to voters prior to the act of voting and assist voters in choosing between different candidates and parties on the basis of issue congruence. Meanwhile widely used all over the world, scientific inquiry into the effect of such tools on electoral behavior is ongoing. This paper adds to the current debate by focusing on whether the popularity of candidates on the Swiss VAA smartvote eventually paid off at the 2007 Swiss federal elections and whether there is a direct link between the performance of a candidate on the tool and his or her electoral performance.

The Strength of Promissory Representation : What Makes MPs Change their Positions ?

The paper analyses the positional congruence between pre-election statements in the Swiss voting assistance application "smartvote" and post-election behaviour in the Swiss lower house between 2003 and 2009. For this purpose, we selected 34 smartvote questions which subsequently came up in parliament. Unlike previous studies which assessed the program-to-policy linkage of governments or party groups the paper examines the question at the level of individual MPs which seems appropriate for political systems which follow the idea of power dispersion. While the average rate of political congruence is at some 85 percent, a multivariate analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elections are over. The results show that positional changes are more likely if (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (4) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (5) if the pre-election statement is in disagreement with the majority position of the legislative party group. The last-mentioned factor is paramount: the farer away a candidate's pre-election profile from his or her party is located, the weaker turns out to be the electoral link of promissory representation.

Une approche strategique du vote : à propos de « vote par appobation, vote par note »

Ce texte a pour ambition de revenir sur une procédure d'expérimentation destinée à tester l'impact du vote par approbation ainsi que du vote par note sur l'ampleur de ce qu'on a coutume d'appeler le vote utile. Les résultats de ces expériences, menées lors des élections présidentielles françaises de 2007 et de 2012, ont fait l'objet de deux articles publiés dans la Revue économique. Notre objectif est ici d'attirer l'attention du lecteur sur la conception implicite qui sous-tend ces expériences : le vote comme outil de dévoilement des préférences individuelles. Une telle orientation se fait au détriment d'une conception stratégique du vote, c'est-à-dire le vote comme processus de coordination. Or, il nous semble que le propre du vote utile est précisément de s'inscrire dans une dimension stratégique du vote, dimension que la procédure expérimentale mise en place tend à gommer en ne fournissant pas aux votants de repères informationnels relatifs aux choix des autres votants. On parlera à cet effet d'isolation informationnelle. This text has the ambition to return to an experimental procedure designed to test the impact of approval voting as well as evaluating voting on the scope of what is called in French vote utile (strategic voting). The results of these experiences, held during the 2007 and 2012 French presidential elections, have been the object of two papers published in the Revue économique. Our aim is to catch the attention of readers on the implicit conception inherent to these experiences: voting as a means to reveal individual preferences. Such a direction is taken at the cost of a strategic conception of voting, i.e. voting as a coordination process. Yet, it seems to us that the main characteristic of strategic voting is precisely to be strategic. The design of the experimental procedure tends to erase this dimension, by depriving the voters of information on other voter's choices. This is what we call informational isolation.

What explains electoral turnout in Swiss municipalities?

What explains the higher electoral turnout in some of the Swiss municipalities? Since there are important differences as far as size, socio-economic structure, importance, political systems and the prevailing political culture are concerned, the Swiss municipalities offer a laboratory-like field of research. Using aggregate level data from our own surveys and from official sources covering the whole country this paper investigates the determinants of voting turnout at the local level. It comes to the following conclusion: The level of electoral turnout in Swiss municipalities depends to an important extent on institutional variables. If the executive is elected in a citizens' assembly there are considerably fewer people participating than in elections at the polls. PR also has a positive effect on turnout, whereas it cannot be shown that having a local parliament leads to higher turnout (and thus to increased interest in politics). Another important variable is the size of a municipality. In smaller municipalities turnout is consistently higher than in bigger ones. As for the importance of Catholicism for turnout, our study confirms the findings of Freitag (2005) at the cantonal level. The Catholic milieu has a positive impact on participation

The Impact of the Electoral System on Political Campaigning : Are Candidates for the Council of States More Moderate than their Fellow Candidates for the National Council ?

It is commonly believed that majority voting enhances parties to cluster around the centre of the political space, whereas proportional systems (PR) foster great ideological divergence. The theoretical arguments for these expectations go back to the work of Downs (1957) and Duverger (1954). More recent studies, however, produced quite contradictory empirical findings. In this paper I will test whether similar arguments hold true for the positioning of candidates campaigning in different electoral systems. The elections for the two chambers of the Swiss Parliament and the data from the Swiss Electoral Studies (SELECTS) and the Swiss Voting Advice Application (VAA) smartvote offer an excellent - almost laboratory like - opportunity to do so empirically. The analyses show clearly, the theoretical claims that majority voting necessarily fosters more moderate positions find no support. The candidates for the Council of States, elected in a majority system, are not more moderate than their fellow party candidates for the National Council which are elected in a PR system.

The Associative Dimension of Issue Ownership

Issue ownership is commonly conceptualized as multidimensional, consisting of a "competence" dimension and an "associative" dimension. Because existing operationalizations of issue ownership tap only the former dimension, we focus on associative issue ownership: the spontaneous identification between specific issues and specific parties in the minds of voters. Survey evidence from Belgium shows that the associative dimension of issue ownership can be measured, that it differs from competence issue ownership, and that it is an independent determinant of voting behavior.