A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Neurofilament triplet proteins are restricted to a subset of neurons in the rat neocortex.

The cellular localisation of neurofilament triplet subunits was investigated in the rat neocortex. A subset of mainly pyramidal neurons showed colocalisation of subunit immunolabelling throughout the neocortex, including labelling with the antibody SMI32, which has been used extensively in other studies of the primate cortex as a selective cellular marker. Neurofilament-labelled neurons were principally localised to two or three cell layers in most cortical regions, but dramatically reduced labelling was present in areas such as the perirhinal cortex, anterior cingulate and a strip of cortex extending from caudal motor regions through the medial parietal region to secondary visual areas. However, quantitative analysis demonstrated a similar proportion (10-20%) of cells with neurofilament triplet labelling in regions of high or low labelling. Combining retrograde tracing with immunolabelling showed that cellular content of the neurofilament proteins was not correlated with the length of projection. Double labelling immunohistochemistry demonstrated that neurofilament content in axons was closely associated with myelination. Analysis of SMI32 labelling in development indicated that content of this epitope within cell bodies was associated with relatively late maturation, between postnatal days 14 and 21. This study is further evidence of a cell type-specific regulation of neurofilament proteins within neocortical neurons. Neurofilament triplet content may be more closely related to the degree of myelination, rather than the absolute length, of the projecting axon.

The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

Surdités légères et surdités unilatérales chez l'enfant: quelle importance [Minimal or unilateral hearing loss in children: is it a problem?].

The word "minimal" or "mild" hearing loss seems to imply that their effects are mild or negligible. The literature supports that they can have a significant impact on educative end educational development of young children and contribute to problems in fields of social function, communication and educational achievement. Unilateral hearing loss in children has been considered for long to be of little consequence. In fact it causes problems in speech and language development, speech understanding, especially in noisy environments, and school results. Early diagnosis, follow-up during preschool and school ages are mandatory.

Medium-sized neurofilament protein related to maturation of a subset of cortical neurons.

Neurofilaments are typical structures of the neuronal cytoskeleton and participate in the formation and stabilization of the axonal and dendritic architecture. In this study, we have characterized a murine monoclonal antibody, FNP7, that is directed against the medium-sized neurofilament subunit NF-M. This antibody identifies a subset of neurons in the cerebral cortex of various species including human and in organotypic cultures of rat cortex. In the neocortex of all species examined, the antibody labels pyramidal cells in layers III, V, and VI, with a distinctive laminar distribution between architectonic boundaries. In comparison with other antibodies directed against NF-M, the FNP7 antibody identifies on blots two forms of NF-M that appear relatively late during development, at the time when dynamic growth of processes changes to the stabilization of the formed processes. Dephosphorylation with alkaline phosphatase unmasks the site, making it detectable for the FNP7 antibody. The late appearance suggests that the site is present during early development in phosphorylated form and with increasing maturation becomes dephosphorylated, mainly in dendrites. This event may relate to changes in cytoskeleton stability in a late phase of dendritic maturation. Furthermore, mainly corticofugal projections and only few callosal axons are stained, suggesting a differential phosphorylation in a subset of axons. The antibody provides a useful marker to study subsets of pyramidal cells in vivo, in vitro, and under experimental conditions.

Opioid maintenance therapy in Switzerland: an overview of the Swiss IMPROVE study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Switzerland's drug policy model has always been unique and progressive, but there is a need to reassess this system in a rapidly changing world. The IMPROVE study was conducted to gain understanding of the attitudes and beliefs towards opioid maintenance therapy (OMT) in Switzerland with regards to quality and access to treatment. To obtain a "real-world" view on OMT, the study approached its goals from two different angles: from the perspectives of the OMT patients and of the physicians who treat patients with maintenance therapy. The IMPROVE study collected a large body of data on OMT in Switzerland. This paper presents a small subset of the dataset, focusing on the research design and methodology, the profile of the participants and the responses to several key questions addressed by the questionnaires. METHODS: IMPROVE was an observational, questionnaire-based cross-sectional study on OMT conducted in Switzerland. Respondents consisted of OMT patients and treating physicians from various regions of the country. Data were collected using questionnaires in German and French. Physicians were interviewed by phone with a computer-based questionnaire. Patients self-completed a paper-based questionnaire at the physicians' offices or OMT treatment centres. RESULTS: A total of 200 physicians and 207 patients participated in the study. Liquid methadone and methadone tablets or capsules were the medications most commonly prescribed by physicians (60% and 20% of patient load, respectively) whereas buprenorphine use was less frequent. Patients (88%) and physicians (83%) were generally satisfied with the OMT currently offered. The current political framework and lack of training or information were cited as determining factors that deter physicians from engaging in OMT. About 31% of OMT physicians interviewed were ≥60 years old, indicating an ageing population. Diversion and misuse were considered a significant problem in Switzerland by 45% of the physicians. CONCLUSION: The subset of IMPROVE data presented gives a present-day, real-life overview of the OMT landscape in Switzerland. It represents a valuable resource for policy makers, key opinion leaders and drug addiction researchers and will be a useful basis for improving the current Swiss OMT model.

Quantitative proteomics reveals subset-specific viral recognition in dendritic cells.

Dendritic cell (DC) populations consist of multiple subsets that are essential orchestrators of the immune system. Technological limitations have so far prevented systems-wide accurate proteome comparison of rare cell populations in vivo. Here, we used high-resolution mass spectrometry-based proteomics, combined with label-free quantitation algorithms, to determine the proteome of mouse splenic conventional and plasmacytoid DC subsets to a depth of 5,780 and 6,664 proteins, respectively. We found mutually exclusive expression of pattern recognition pathways not previously known to be different among conventional DC subsets. Our experiments assigned key viral recognition functions to be exclusively expressed in CD4(+) and double-negative DCs. The CD8alpha(+) DCs largely lack the receptors required to sense certain viruses in the cytoplasm. By avoiding activation via cytoplasmic receptors, including retinoic acid-inducible gene I, CD8alpha(+) DCs likely gain a window of opportunity to process and present viral antigens before activation-induced shutdown of antigen presentation pathways occurs.