159 resultados para Reliability benefit reflective transmission pricing


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The study of culturally inherited traits has led to the suggestion that the evolution of helping behaviors is more likely with cultural transmission than without. Here we evaluate this idea through a comparative analysis of selection on helping under both genetic and cultural inheritance. We develop two simple models for the evolution of helping through cultural group selection: one in which selection on the trait depends solely on Darwinian fitness effects and one in which selection is driven by nonreproductive factors, specifically imitation of strategies achieving higher payoffs. We show that when cultural variants affect Darwinian fitness, the selection pressure on helping can be markedly increased relative to that under genetic transmission. By contrast, when variants are driven by nonreproductive factors, the selection pressure on helping may be reduced relative to that under genetic inheritance. This occurs because, unlike biological offspring, the spread of cultural variants from one group to another through imitation does not reduce the number of these variants in the source group. As a consequence, there is increased within-group competition associated with traits increasing group productivity, which reduces the benefits of helping. In these cases, selection for harming behavior (decreasing the payoff to neighbors) may occur rather than selection for helping.

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We searched for disruptive, genic rare copy-number variants (CNVs) among 411 families affected by sporadic autism spectrum disorder (ASD) from the Simons Simplex Collection by using available exome sequence data and CoNIFER (Copy Number Inference from Exome Reads). Compared to high-density SNP microarrays, our approach yielded ∼2× more smaller genic rare CNVs. We found that affected probands inherited more CNVs than did their siblings (453 versus 394, p = 0.004; odds ratio [OR] = 1.19) and that the probands' CNVs affected more genes (921 versus 726, p = 0.02; OR = 1.30). These smaller CNVs (median size 18 kb) were transmitted preferentially from the mother (136 maternal versus 100 paternal, p = 0.02), although this bias occurred irrespective of affected status. The excess burden of inherited CNVs among probands was driven primarily by sibling pairs with discordant social-behavior phenotypes (p < 0.0002, measured by Social Responsiveness Scale [SRS] score), which contrasts with families where the phenotypes were more closely matched or less extreme (p > 0.5). Finally, we found enrichment of brain-expressed genes unique to probands, especially in the SRS-discordant group (p = 0.0035). In a combined model, our inherited CNVs, de novo CNVs, and de novo single-nucleotide variants all independently contributed to the risk of autism (p < 0.05). Taken together, these results suggest that small transmitted rare CNVs play a role in the etiology of simplex autism. Importantly, the small size of these variants aids in the identification of specific genes as additional risk factors associated with ASD.

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The National Institute of Mental Health developed the semi-structured Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies (DIGS) for the assessment of major mood and psychotic disorders and their spectrum conditions. The DIGS was translated into French in a collaborative effort of investigators from sites in France and Switzerland. Inter-rater and test-retest reliability of the French version have been established in a clinical sample in Lausanne. Excellent inter-rater reliability was found for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, major depression, and unipolar schizoaffective disorder while fair inter-rater reliability was demonstrated for bipolar schizoaffective disorder. Using a six-week test-retest interval, reliability for all diagnoses was found to be fair to good with the exception of bipolar schizoaffective disorder. The lower test-retest reliability was the result of a relatively long test-retest interval that favored incomplete symptom recall. In order to increase reliability for lifetime diagnoses in persons not currently affected, best-estimate procedures using additional sources of diagnostic information such as medical records and reports from relatives should supplement DIGS information in family-genetic studies. Within such a procedure, the DIGS appears to be a useful part of data collection for genetic studies on major mood disorders and schizophrenia in French-speaking populations.

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Sentinel lymph node dissection (SLND) identifies melanoma patients with metastatic disease who would benefit from radical lymph node dissection (RLND). Rarely, patients with melanoma have an underlying lymphoproliferative disease, and melanoma metastases might develop as collision tumours in the sentinel lymph node (SLN). The aim of this study was to measure the incidence and examine the effect of collision tumours on the accuracy of SLND and on the validity of staging in this setting. Between 1998 and 2012, 750 consecutive SLNDs were performed in melanoma patients using the triple technique (lymphoscintigraphy, gamma probe and blue dye). The validity of SLND in collision tumours was analysed. False negativity was reflected by the disease-free survival. The literature was reviewed on collision tumours in melanoma. Collision tumours of melanoma and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) were found in two SLN and in one RLND (0.4%). Subsequent RLNDs of SLND-positive cases were negative for melanoma. The patient with negative SLND developed relapse after 28 months with an inguinal lymph node metastasis of melanoma; RLND showed collision tumours. The literature review identified 12 cases of collision tumours. CLL was associated with increased melanoma incidence and reduced overall survival. This is, to our knowledge, the first assessment of the clinical value of SLND when collision tumours of melanoma and CLL are found. In this small series of three patients with both malignancies present in the same lymph node basin, lymphocytic infiltration of the CLL did not alter radioisotope uptake into the SLN. No false-negative result was observed. Our data suggest the validity of SLND in collision tumours, but given the rarity of the problem, further studies are necessary to confirm this reliability.

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Previous studies addressing the importance of host gender in parasite transmission have shed light on males as the more important hosts, with the higher transmission potential of males being explained by the fact that they often harbour higher parasite loads than females. However, in some systems females are more heavily infected than males and may be responsible for driving infection under such circumstances. Using a wild population of common voles (Microtus arvalis), we showed that females were more frequently infected by the intestinal nematode Trichuris arvicolae than males (i.e. prevalence based on the presence of eggs in the faeces) and that females were shedding greater numbers of parasite eggs per gram of faeces (EPG) than males. By applying an anthelmintic treatment to either male or female voles, we demonstrated that treating females significantly reduced parasite burdens (i.e. prevalence and EPG) of both male and female hosts, while treating males only reduced parasite burden in males. These findings indicate that in this female-biased infection system females play a more important role than males in driving the dynamics of parasite transmission.

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OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to validate a French adaptation of the 5th version of the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) instrument in a Swiss sample of illicit drug users. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: The participants in the study were 54 French-speaking dependent patients, most of them with opiates as the drug of first choice. Procedure: Analyses of internal consistency (convergent and discriminant validity) and reliability, including measures of test-retest and inter-observer correlations, were conducted. RESULTS: Besides good applicability of the test, the results on composite scores (CSs) indicate comparable results to those obtained in a sample of American opiate-dependent patients. Across the seven dimensions of the ASI, Cronbach's alpha ranged from 0.42 to 0.76, test-retest correlations coefficients ranged from 0.48 to 0.98, while for CSs, inter-observer correlations ranged from 0.76 to 0.99. CONCLUSIONS: Despite several limitations, the French version of the ASI presents acceptable criteria of applicability, validity and reliability in a sample of drug-dependent patients.

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Mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV) infection establishes chronic germinal centers and a lifelong neutralizing Ab response. We show that removal of the draining lymph node after establishment of the germinal center reaction led to complete loss of neutralizing Abs despite comparable infection levels in peripheral lymphocytes. Importantly, in the absence of neutralization, only the exocrine organs mammary gland, salivary gland, pancreas, and skin showed strikingly increased infection, resulting in accelerated mammary tumor development. Induction of stronger neutralization did not influence chronic infection levels of peripheral lymphoid organs but strongly inhibited mammary gland infection and virus transmission to the next generation. Taken together, we provide evidence that a tight equilibrium in virus neutralization allows limited infection of exocrine organs and controls cancer development in susceptible mouse strains. These experiments show that a strong neutralizing Ab response induced after infection is not able to control lymphoid MMTV infection. Strong neutralization, however, is capable of blocking amplification of mammary gland infection, tumor development, and virus transmission to the next generation. The results also indicate a role of neutralization in natural resistance to MMTV infection.

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Several methods are available for coding body movement in nonverbal behavior research, but there is no consensus on a reliable coding system that can be used for the study of emotion expression. Adopting an integrative approach, we developed a new method, the Body Action and Posture (BAP) coding system, for the time-aligned micro description of body movement on an anatomical level (different articulations of body parts), a form level (direction and orientation of movement), and a functional level (communicative and self-regulatory functions). We applied the system to a new corpus of acted emotion portrayals, examined its comprehensiveness and demonstrated intercoder reliability at three levels: a) occurrence, b) temporal precision and c) segmentation. We discuss issues for further validation and propose some research applications.

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Errors in the inferred multiple sequence alignment may lead to false prediction of positive selection. Recently, methods for detecting unreliable alignment regions were developed and were shown to accurately identify incorrectly aligned regions. While removing unreliable alignment regions is expected to increase the accuracy of positive selection inference, such filtering may also significantly decrease the power of the test, as positively selected regions are fast evolving, and those same regions are often those that are difficult to align. Here, we used realistic simulations that mimic sequence evolution of HIV-1 genes to test the hypothesis that the performance of positive selection inference using codon models can be improved by removing unreliable alignment regions. Our study shows that the benefit of removing unreliable regions exceeds the loss of power due to the removal of some of the true positively selected sites.

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This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.