Alcohol-attributable mortality in Switzerland in 2011--age-specific causes of death and impact of heavy versus non-heavy drinking.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use causes high burden of disease and injury globally. Switzerland has a high consumption of alcohol, almost twice the global average. Alcohol-attributable deaths and years of life lost in Switzerland were estimated by age and sex for the year 2011. Additionally, the impact of heavy drinking (40+grams/day for women and 60+g/day for men) was estimated. METHODS: Alcohol consumption estimates were based on the Addiction Monitoring in Switzerland study and were adjusted to per capita consumption based on sales data. Mortality data were taken from the Swiss mortality register. Methodology of the Comparative Risk Assessment for alcohol was used to estimate alcohol-attributable fractions. RESULTS: Alcohol use caused 1,600 (95% CI: 1,472 - 1,728) net deaths (1,768 deaths caused, 168 deaths prevented) among 15 to 74 year olds, corresponding to 8.7% of all deaths (men: 1,181 deaths; women: 419 deaths). Overall, 42,627 years of life (9.7%, 95% CI: 40,245 - 45,008) were lost due to alcohol. Main causes of alcohol-attributable mortality were injuries at younger ages (15-34 years), with increasing age digestive diseases (mainly liver cirrhosis) and cancers (particularly breast cancers among women). The majority (62%) of all alcohol-attributable deaths was caused by chronic heavy drinking (men: 67%; women: 48 %). CONCLUSION: Alcohol is a major cause of premature mortality in Switzerland. Its impact, among young people mainly via injuries, among men mainly through heavy drinking, calls for a mix of preventive actions targeting chronic heavy drinking, binge drinking and mean consumption.

Cohort profile: Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC).

The advent of effective combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 1996 resulted in fewer patients experiencing clinical events, so that some prognostic analyses of individual cohort studies of human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals had low statistical power. Because of this, the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) of HIV cohort studies in Europe and North America was established in 2000, with the aim of studying the prognosis for clinical events in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and the mortality of adult patients treated for HIV-1 infection. In 2002, the ART-CC collected data on more than 12,000 patients in 13 cohorts who had begun combination ART between 1995 and 2001. Subsequent updates took place in 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010. The ART-CC data base now includes data on more than 70,000 patients participating in 19 cohorts who began treatment before the end of 2009. Data are collected on patient demographics (e.g. sex, age, assumed transmission group, race/ethnicity, geographical origin), HIV biomarkers (e.g. CD4 cell count, plasma viral load of HIV-1), ART regimen, dates and types of AIDS events, and dates and causes of death. In recent years, additional data on co-infections such as hepatitis C; risk factors such as smoking, alcohol and drug use; non-HIV biomarkers such as haemoglobin and liver enzymes; and adherence to ART have been collected whenever available. The data remain the property of the contributing cohorts, whose representatives manage the ART-CC via the steering committee of the Collaboration. External collaboration is welcomed. Details of contacts are given on the ART-CC website (www.art-cohort-collaboration.org).

Subclinical hyperthyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting.We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts. METHODS: Individual data on 52 674 participants were pooled from 10 cohorts. Coronary heart disease events were analyzed in 22 437 participants from 6 cohorts with available data, and incident AF was analyzed in 8711 participants from 5 cohorts. Euthyroidism was defined as thyrotropin level between 0.45 and 4.49 mIU/L and endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism as thyrotropin level lower than 0.45 mIU/L with normal free thyroxine levels, after excluding those receiving thyroid-altering medications. RESULTS: Of 52 674 participants, 2188 (4.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During follow-up, 8527 participants died (including 1896 from CHD), 3653 of 22 437 had CHD events, and 785 of 8711 developed AF. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with increased total mortality (hazard ratio[HR], 1.24, 95% CI, 1.06-1.46), CHD mortality (HR,1.29; 95% CI, 1.02-1.62), CHD events (HR, 1.21; 95%CI, 0.99-1.46), and AF (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.16-2.43).Risks did not differ significantly by age, sex, or preexisting cardiovascular disease and were similar after further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, with attributable risk of 14.5% for total mortality to 41.5% forAF in those with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Risks for CHD mortality and AF (but not other outcomes) were higher for thyrotropin level lower than 0.10 mIU/L compared with thyrotropin level between 0.10 and 0.44 mIU/L(for both, P value for trend, .03). CONCLUSION: Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with increased risks of total, CHD mortality, and incident AF, with highest risks of CHD mortality and AF when thyrotropin level is lower than 0.10 mIU/L.

Disseminated M. avium complex infection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: declining incidence, improved prognosis and discontinuation of maintenance therapy.

Introduction of potent antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) has reduced overall morbidity and mortality amongst HIV-infected adults. Some prophylactic regimes against opportunistic infections can be discontinued in patients under successful ART. (1) The influence of the availability of ART on incidence and mortality of disseminated M. avium Complex infection (MAC). (2) The safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy against MAC in patients on ART. The Swiss HIV-Cohort Study, a prospective multicentre study of HIV-infected adults. Patients with a nadir CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3 were considered at risk for MAC and contributed to total follow-up time for calculating the incidence. Survival analysis was performed by using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods. Safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy was evaluated by review of the medical notes. 398 patients were diagnosed with MAC from 1990 to 1999. 350 had a previous CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3. A total of 3208 patients had a nadir CD4 count of less than 50 cells/mm3 during the study period and contributed to a total follow-up of 6004 person-years. The incidence over the whole study period was 5.8 events per 100 person-years. In the time period of available ART the incidence of MAC was significantly reduced (1.4 versus 8.8 events per 100 person-years, p < 0.001). Being diagnosed after 1995 was the most powerful predictor of better survival (adjusted hazard ratio for death: 0.27; p < 0.001). None of 24 patients discontinuing maintenance therapy while on ART experienced recurrence of MAC during a total follow-up of 56.6 person-years (upper 95% confidence limit 5.3 per 100 person-years). Introducing ART has markedly reduced the risk of MAC for HIV-infected individuals with a history of very low CD4 counts. Survival after diagnosis of MAC has improved after ART became available. In patients responding to ART, discontinuation of maintenance therapy against M. avium may be safe.

Comparable Survival Between HIV+ and HIV- non-Hodgkin and Hodgkin Lymphoma Patients Undergoing Autologous Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplantation.

Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) has been successfully used in HIV-related lymphoma (HIV-Ly) patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy. We report the first comparative analysis between HIV-Ly and a matched cohort of HIV(-) lymphoma patients. This retrospective European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation study included 53 patients (66% non-Hodgkin and 34% Hodgkin lymphoma) within each cohort. Both groups were comparable except for the higher proportion of males, mixed-cellularity Hodgkin lymphoma and patients receiving granulocyte colony-stimulating factor before engraftment and a smaller proportion receiving total body irradiation-based conditioning within the HIV-Ly cohort. Incidence of relapse, overall survival, and progression-free survival were similar in both cohorts. A higher nonrelapse mortality within the first year after ASCT was observed in the HIV-Ly group (8% vs 2%), predominantly because of early bacterial infections, although this was not statistically significant and did not influence survival. Thus, within the highly active antiretroviral therapy era, HIV patients should be considered for ASCT according to the same criteria adopted for HIV(-) lymphoma patients.

Age-period-cohort analysis of oral cancer mortality in Europe: the end of an epidemic?

Over the last decade, mortality from oral and pharyngeal cancer has been declining in most European countries, but it had been increasing substantially in Hungary, Slovakia and a few other countries of central Europe, reaching rates comparable to those of lung cancer in several western European countries in males. To update trends in oral cancer mortality and further analyse the recent epidemic in central Europe, official death certifications for oral and pharyngeal cancer for 37 European countries were derived over the period 1970-2007, and an age-period-cohort model was fitted for selected countries. Male oral cancer mortality continued to decline in most European countries, including the Russian Federation, and, more importantly, it also started to decline in some of the countries with the highest male rates, i.e. Hungary and Slovakia; persisting rises were, however, observed in Belarus, Bulgaria and Romania. Oral cancer mortality rates for women were lower than in men and showed no appreciable trend over recent periods in the EU overall. Estimates from the age-period-cohort analysis for most selected countries showed a fall in effects for the cohorts born after the 1950s. For the period effect displayed a rise for the earlier periods, an inversion in the 1990s and a continuous fall up to the last studied period. Only some former non-market economy countries, like Romania, Ukraine and Lithuania, had rising cohort effect trends up to most recent generations. The major finding of this updated analysis of oral cancer mortality is the leveling of the epidemic for men in most European countries, including Hungary and other central European countries, where mortality from this cancer was exceedingly high. These trends essentially reflect the changes in alcohol and tobacco consumption in various populations.

Late biliary complications in human alveolar echinococcosis are associated with high mortality.

AIM: To evaluate the incidence of late biliary complications in non-resectable alveolar echinococcosis (AE) under long-term chemotherapy with benzimidazoles. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of AE patients with biliary complications occurring more than three years after the diagnosis of AE. We compared characteristics of patients with and without biliary complications, analyzed potential risk factor for biliary complications and performed survival analyses. RESULTS: Ninety four of 148 patients with AE in Zurich had non-resectable AE requiring long-term benzimidazole chemotherapy, of which 26 (28%) patients developed late biliary complications. These patients had a median age of 55.5 (35.5-65) years at diagnosis of AE and developed biliary complications after 15 (8.25-19) years of chemotherapy. The most common biliary complications during long-term chemotherapy were late-onset cholangitis (n = 14), sclerosing cholangitis-like lesions (n = 8), hepatolithiasis (n = 5), affection of the common bile duct (n = 7) and secondary biliary cirrhosis (n = 7). Thirteen of the 26 patients had undergone surgery (including 12 resections) before chemotherapy. Previous surgery was a risk factor for late biliary complications in linear regression analysis (P = 0.012). CONCLUSION: Late biliary complications can be observed in nearly one third of patients with non-resectable AE, with previous surgery being a potential risk factor. After the occurrence of late biliary complications, the median survival is only 3 years, suggesting that late biliary complications indicate a poor prognostic outcome.

Prolonged antiretroviral therapy initiated at seroconversion is associated with a polyfunctional HIV-1-specific T-cell profile comparable to that of long-term non-progressors (LTNPs)

Background: Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) may dramatically curtail cumulative immunological damage allowing maximal levels of immune preservation/reconstitution and induce an immunovirological status similar to that of HIV-1 LTNPs with low viral reservoirs and polyfunctional HIV-1 specific T cell responses.Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study of an HIV-1 seroconverter cohort on long-term ART (LTTS) and compared it to one of LTNPs. Inclusion criteria for 20 LTTS were: (a) ?4 years ART; (b) long-term aviremia and (c) absence of treatment failure and for 15 LTNPs: (a) ?7 years of documented HIV-1 infection; (b) <1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL and ?500 CD4+ T-cells/mm3 in >90% of measurements; (d) absence of AIDS-defining conditions; (e) ART-naı¨ve except for temporary ART for prevention of MTCT. In both cohorts, we analysed residual viral replication and reservoirs in peripheral blood, as measured by cellassociated HIV-1 RNA and DNA in PBMCs, respectively and used polychromatic flow cytometry to analyse HIV-1-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell functional profile in terms of cytokine production using IFN-c, IL-2, TNF-a production.Results: Cell-associated DNA [47.7 (4.8-583.2) in LTTS and 19.7 (0.5-295.5) in LTNPS, p=0.10], and RNA [3.9 (0-36) and 5.8 (0-10.3), respectively] were shown to be similarly low in both cohorts. We identified 103 CD8 T cell epitope-specific responses, all subjects responding to ?1 epitope. Mean responding number of responding epitopes per patient was 2 and 4 in LTTS and LTNPS, respectively. Mean% of cytokine-secreting CD8 T cells was 0.37% and 0.50% (p=0.06), of these 43% and 39% (p=0.12) were secreting simultaneously IFN-c, IL-2 and TNF-a. Respective values for CD4 T cells were 0.28% and 0.33% (p=0.28) of which 33% and 30% (0.32) were secreting these 3 cytokines simultaneously.Conclusions: Long-term aviremia after very early ART initiation is associated with low levels of reservoirs saturation ad residual replication. Although less broad CD8 T cell responses were found in LTTS, HIV-1 specific CD4 and CD8 T cell responses showed similar magnitude and functional profile in the 2 cohorts. Our results indicate that prolonged ART initiated at the time of HIV-1 seroconversion is associated with immuno-virological features which resemble those of LTNPs. (BHIVA Research Award Winner 2008: Anna Garcia-Diaz.)

Evaluation cardiologique préopératoire avant chirurgie non cardiaque: stratification du risque cardiovasculaire [Preoperative cardiac assessment before non-cardiac surgery: cardiac risk stratification].

Perioperative cardiac events occurring in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery are a common cause of morbidity and mortality. Current guidelines recommend an individualized approach to preoperative cardiac risk stratification prior to non-cardiac surgery, integrating risk factors both for the patient (active cardiac conditions, clinical risk factors, functional capacity) and for the planned surgery. Preoperative cardiac investigations are currently limited to high-risk patients in whom they may contribute to modify the perioperative management. A multidisciplinary approach to such patients, integrating the general practitioner, is recommended in order to define an individualized peri-operative strategy.

Improvement of the HIV/AIDS vaccine candidate NYVAC-C by deletion of the viral type I IFN inhibitor and/or acquisition of replication competence

Background: Recombinant viruses based on the attenuated vaccinia virus strain NYVAC are promising HIV vaccine candidates as phase I/II clinical trials have shown good safety and immunogenicity profiles. However, this NYVAC strain is non-replicating in most human cell lines and encodes viral inhibitors of the immune system. Methods: With the aim to increase the immune potency of the current NYVAC-C vector (expressing the codon optimized clade C HIV-1 genes encoding gp120 and Gag-Pol-Nef polyprotein), we have generated and characterized three NYVAC-C-based vectors by, 1) deletion of the viral type I IFN inhibitor gene (NYVAC-CdeltaB19R), 2) restoration of virus replication competence in human cells by re-inserting K1L and C7L host range genes (NYVAC-C-KC) and, 3) combination of both strategies (NYVACC- KC-deltaB19R). Results: Insertion of the KC fragment restored the replication competence of the viruses in human cells (HeLa cells and primary dermal fibroblasts and keratinocytes), increased the expression of HIV antigens by more than 3-fold compared to the non-replicating homologs, inhibited apoptosis induced by the parental NYVAC-C and retained attenuation in a newborn mouse model. In adult mice, replication-competent viruses showed a limited capacity to replicate in tissues surrounding the inoculation site (ovaries and lymph nodes). After infection of keratinocytes, PBMCs and dendritic cells these viruses induced differential modulation in specific host cell signal transduction pathways, triggering genes important in immune modulation. Conclusion: We have developed improved NYVAC-C-based vectors with enhanced HIV-1 antigen expression, with the ability to replicate in cultured human cells and partially in some tissues, with an induced expression of cellular genes relevant to immune system activation, and which trigger IFN-dependent and independent signalling pathways, while maintaining a safety phenotype. These new vectors are promising new HIV vaccine candidates. These studies were performed within the Poxvirus Tcell Vaccine Discovery Consortium (PTVDC) which is part of the CAVD program.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to a medico- surgical ICU requiring non invasive ventilation (NIV) for hypercapnic respiratory failure

Introduction Because it decreases intubation rate and mortality, NIV has become first-line treatment in case of hypercapnic acute respiratory failure (HARF). Whether this approach is equally successful for all categories of HARF patients is however debated. We assessed if any clinical characteristics of HARF patients were associated with NIV intensity, success, and outcome, in order to identify prognostic factors. Methods Retrospective analysis of the clinical database (clinical information system and MDSi) of patients consecutively admitted to our medico-surgical ICU, presenting with HARF (defined as PaCO2 > 50 mmHg), and receiving NIV between May 2008 and December 2010. Demographic data, medical diagnoses (including documented chronic lung disease), reason for ICU hospitalization, recent surgical interventions, SAPS II and McCabe scores were extracted from the database. Total duration of NIV and the need for tracheal intubation during the 5 days following the first hypercapnia documentation, as well as ICU, hospital and one year mortality were recorded. Results are reported as median [IQR]. Comparisons were carried out with Chi2 or Kruskal-Wallis tests, p<0.05 (*). Results Two hundred and twenty patients were included. NIV successful patients received 16 [9-31] hours of NIV for up to 5 days. Fifty patients (22.7%) were intubated 11 [2-34] hours after HARF occurence, after having receiving 10 [5-21] hours of NIV. Intubation was correlated with increased ICU (18% vs. 6%, p<0.05) and hospital (42% vs. 31%, p>0.05) mortality. SAPS II score was related to increasing ICU (51 [29-74] vs. 23 [12-41]%, p<0.05), hospital (37% [20-59] vs 20% [12-37], p<0.05) and one year mortality (35% vs 20%, p<0.05). Surgical patients were less frequent among hospital fatalities (28.8% vs. 46.3%, p<0.05, RR 0.8 [0-6-0.9]). Nineteen patients (8.6%) died in the ICU, 73 (33.2%) during their hospital stay and 108 (49.1%) were dead one year after HARF. Conclusion The practice to start NIV in all suitable patients suffering from HARF is appropriate. NIV can safely and appropriately be used in patients suffering from HARF from an origin different from COPD exacerbation. Beside usual predictors of severity such as severity score (SAPS II) appear to be associated with increased mortality. Although ICU mortality was low in our patients, hospital and one year mortality were substantial. Surgical patients, although undergoing a similar ICU course, had a better hospital and one year outcome.

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. FINDINGS: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. INTERPRETATION: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

Weekend versus weekday admission and mortality after acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Optimal management of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) requires medical expertise, diagnostic testing, and therapies that may not be available consistently throughout the entire week. We sought to assess whether associations exist between weekday or weekend admission and mortality and length of hospital stay for patients hospitalized with PE. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated patients discharged with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 acute care hospitals in Pennsylvania (January 2000 to November 2002). We used random-effect logistic models to study the association between weekend admission and 30-day mortality and used discrete survival models to study the association between weekend admission and time to hospital discharge, adjusting for hospital (region, size, and teaching status) and patient factors (race, insurance, severity of illness, and use of thrombolytic therapy). Among 15 531 patient discharges with PE, 3286 patients (21.2%) had been admitted on a weekend. Patients admitted on weekends had a higher unadjusted 30-day mortality rate (11.1% versus 8.8%) than patients admitted on weekdays, with no difference in length of stay. Patients admitted on weekends had significantly greater adjusted odds of dying (odds ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.34) than patients admitted on weekdays. The higher mortality among patients hospitalized on weekends was driven by the increased mortality rate among the most severely ill patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with PE who are admitted on weekends have a significantly higher short-term mortality than patients admitted on weekdays. Quality-improvement efforts should aim to ensure a consistent approach to the management of PE 7 days a week.

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Evaluation of AIDS prevention among homosexual and bisexual men in Switzerland.

Attitudinal and behavioural change among gay men in Switzerland was measured between 1987 and 1990 to evaluate the effectiveness of AIDS prevention activities. The methodology used included a self-administered questionnaire published in Swiss gay magazines and distributed by gay organizations (N = 795 in 1987, N = 720 in 1990) and in-depth interviews with men recruited through advertisements and through the questionnaire (N = 42 in 1987, N = 24 in 1990). The two independent sampling procedures yielded similar samples with regard to socio-demographic characteristics, allowing comparisons to be made between the 1987 and 1990 data. Personal confrontation with AIDS (knowing someone who is HIV-positive, or who is ill or dead from AIDS) increased significantly during the period but more adequate ways of coping developed. Behavioural change towards safer sex began well before the first study. The majority of responding homosexuals have adapted their sexual behaviour to the new situation created by AIDS and generally maintain a protective behaviour. However, "exceptions" (condom rupture or episodes of non-protection) are not infrequent and should deserve more attention. Three indicators of sexual behaviour (number of sexual partners, anal sex and use of condom and oral sex with ejaculation), reported for the last 3 months before each study, exhibit few changes between 1987 and 1990: number of partners remained stable, unprotected oral sex decreased. Anal sex slightly increased, the use of condoms remaining stable. Sixty-seven percent of the sample knew their serostatus in 1990 (57% in 1987), and 13% of these stated that they were HIV+ (14% in 1987).