Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

Auditory motion affects visual biological motion processing.

The processing of biological motion is a critical, everyday task performed with remarkable efficiency by human sensory systems. Interest in this ability has focused to a large extent on biological motion processing in the visual modality (see, for example, Cutting, J. E., Moore, C., & Morrison, R. (1988). Masking the motions of human gait. Perception and Psychophysics, 44(4), 339-347). In naturalistic settings, however, it is often the case that biological motion is defined by input to more than one sensory modality. For this reason, here in a series of experiments we investigate behavioural correlates of multisensory, in particular audiovisual, integration in the processing of biological motion cues. More specifically, using a new psychophysical paradigm we investigate the effect of suprathreshold auditory motion on perceptions of visually defined biological motion. Unlike data from previous studies investigating audiovisual integration in linear motion processing [Meyer, G. F. & Wuerger, S. M. (2001). Cross-modal integration of auditory and visual motion signals. Neuroreport, 12(11), 2557-2560; Wuerger, S. M., Hofbauer, M., & Meyer, G. F. (2003). The integration of auditory and motion signals at threshold. Perception and Psychophysics, 65(8), 1188-1196; Alais, D. & Burr, D. (2004). No direction-specific bimodal facilitation for audiovisual motion detection. Cognitive Brain Research, 19, 185-194], we report the existence of direction-selective effects: relative to control (stationary) auditory conditions, auditory motion in the same direction as the visually defined biological motion target increased its detectability, whereas auditory motion in the opposite direction had the inverse effect. Our data suggest these effects do not arise through general shifts in visuo-spatial attention, but instead are a consequence of motion-sensitive, direction-tuned integration mechanisms that are, if not unique to biological visual motion, at least not common to all types of visual motion. Based on these data and evidence from neurophysiological and neuroimaging studies we discuss the neural mechanisms likely to underlie this effect.

Mutant prominin 1 found in patients with macular degeneration disrupts photoreceptor disk morphogenesis in mice.

Familial macular degeneration is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous group of disorders characterized by progressive central vision loss. Here we show that an R373C missense mutation in the prominin 1 gene (PROM1) causes 3 forms of autosomal-dominant macular degeneration. In transgenic mice expressing R373C mutant human PROM1, both mutant and endogenous PROM1 were found throughout the layers of the photoreceptors, rather than at the base of the photoreceptor outer segments, where PROM1 is normally localized. Moreover, the outer segment disk membranes were greatly overgrown and misoriented, indicating defective disk morphogenesis. Immunoprecipitation studies showed that PROM1 interacted with protocadherin 21 (PCDH21), a photoreceptor-specific cadherin, and with actin filaments, both of which play critical roles in disk membrane morphogenesis. Collectively, our results identify what we believe to be a novel complex involved in photoreceptor disk morphogenesis and indicate a possible role for PROM1 and PCDH21 in macular degeneration.

The major genetic determinants of HIV-1 control affect HLA class I peptide presentation.

Infectious and inflammatory diseases have repeatedly shown strong genetic associations within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC); however, the basis for these associations remains elusive. To define host genetic effects on the outcome of a chronic viral infection, we performed genome-wide association analysis in a multiethnic cohort of HIV-1 controllers and progressors, and we analyzed the effects of individual amino acids within the classical human leukocyte antigen (HLA) proteins. We identified >300 genome-wide significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the MHC and none elsewhere. Specific amino acids in the HLA-B peptide binding groove, as well as an independent HLA-C effect, explain the SNP associations and reconcile both protective and risk HLA alleles. These results implicate the nature of the HLA-viral peptide interaction as the major factor modulating durable control of HIV infection.

Non-Risk-Adapted Surveillance in Clinical Stage I Nonseminomatous Germ Cell Tumors: The Princess Margaret Hospital's Experience.

BACKGROUND: Since 1981 Princess Margaret Hospital has used initial active surveillance (AS) with delayed treatment at relapse as the preferred management for all patients with clinical stage I nonseminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT). OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to report our overall AS experience and compare outcomes over different periods using this non-risk-adapted approach. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred and seventy-one patients with stage I NSGCT were managed by AS from 1981 to 2005. For analysis by time period, patients were divided into two cohorts by diagnosis date: initial cohort, 1981-1992 (n=157), and recent cohort, 1993-2005 (n=214). INTERVENTION: Patients were followed at regular intervals, and treatment was only given for relapse. MEASUREMENTS: Recurrence rates, time to relapse, risk factors for recurrence, disease-specific survival, and overall survival were determined. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: With a median follow-up of 6.3 yr, 104 patients (28%) relapsed: 53 of 157 (33.8%) in the initial group and 51 of 214 (23.8%) in the recent group. Median time to relapse was 7 mo. Lymphovascular invasion (p<0.0001) and pure embryonal carcinoma (p=0.02) were independent predictors of recurrence; 125 patients (33.7%) were designated as high risk based on the presence of one or both factors. In the initial cohort, 66 of 157 patients (42.0%) were high risk and 36 of 66 patients (54.5%) relapsed versus 17 of 91 low-risk patients (18.7%) (p<0.0001). In the recent cohort, 59 of 214 patients (27.6%) were high risk and 29 of 59 had a recurrence (49.2%) versus 22 of 155 low-risk patients (14.2%) (p<0.0001). Three patients (0.8%) died from testis cancer. The estimated 5-yr disease-specific survival was 99.3% in the initial group and 98.9% in the recent one. CONCLUSIONS: Non-risk-adapted surveillance is an effective, simple strategy for the management of all stage I NSGCT.

Inclusive fitness theory and eusociality.

Arising from M. A. Nowak, C. E. Tarnita & E. O. Wilson 466, 1057-1062 (2010); Nowak et al. reply. Nowak et al. argue that inclusive fitness theory has been of little value in explaining the natural world, and that it has led to negligible progress in explaining the evolution of eusociality. However, we believe that their arguments are based upon a misunderstanding of evolutionary theory and a misrepresentation of the empirical literature. We will focus our comments on three general issues.

The PROM1 mutation p.R373C causes an autosomal dominant bull's eye maculopathy associated with rod, rod-cone, and macular dystrophy.

PURPOSE: To characterize in detail the phenotype of five unrelated families with autosomal dominant bull's eye maculopathy (BEM) due to the R373C mutation in the PROM1 gene. METHODS: Forty-one individuals of five families of Caribbean (family A), British (families B, D, E), and Italian (family C) origin, segregating the R373C mutation in PROM1, were ascertained. Electrophysiological assessment, fundus autofluorescence (FAF) imaging, fundus fluorescein angiography (FFA), and optical coherence tomography (OCT) were performed in available subjects. Mutation screening of PROM1 was performed. RESULTS: The R373C mutant was present heterozygously in all affected patients. The age at onset was variable and ranged between 9 and 58 years, with most of the individuals presenting with reading difficulties. Subjects commonly had a mild to moderate reduction in visual acuity except for members of family C who experienced markedly reduced central vision. The retinal phenotype was characterized by macular dystrophy, with retinal pigment epithelial mottling in younger subjects, progressing to typical BEM over time, with the development of macular atrophy in older patients. In addition, all members of family C had typical features of RP. The electrophysiological findings were variable both within and between families. CONCLUSIONS: Mutations in PROM1 have been described to cause a severe form of autosomal recessive RP in two families of Indian and Pakistani descent. The results of this study have demonstrated that a distinct redundant PROM1 mutation (R373C) can also produce an autosomal dominant, fully penetrant retinopathy, characterized by BEM with little inter- and intrafamilial variability, and retinal dystrophy with variable rod or rod-cone dysfunction and marked intra- and interfamilial variability, ranging from isolated maculopathy without generalized photoreceptor dysfunction to maculopathy associated with very severe rod-cone dysfunction.

Genome-wide association analysis of blood-pressure traits in African-ancestry individuals reveals common associated genes in African and non-African populations.

High blood pressure (BP) is more prevalent and contributes to more severe manifestations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in African Americans than in any other United States ethnic group. Several small African-ancestry (AA) BP genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been published, but their findings have failed to replicate to date. We report on a large AA BP GWAS meta-analysis that includes 29,378 individuals from 19 discovery cohorts and subsequent replication in additional samples of AA (n = 10,386), European ancestry (EA) (n = 69,395), and East Asian ancestry (n = 19,601). Five loci (EVX1-HOXA, ULK4, RSPO3, PLEKHG1, and SOX6) reached genome-wide significance (p < 1.0 × 10(-8)) for either systolic or diastolic BP in a transethnic meta-analysis after correction for multiple testing. Three of these BP loci (EVX1-HOXA, RSPO3, and PLEKHG1) lack previous associations with BP. We also identified one independent signal in a known BP locus (SOX6) and provide evidence for fine mapping in four additional validated BP loci. We also demonstrate that validated EA BP GWAS loci, considered jointly, show significant effects in AA samples. Consequently, these findings suggest that BP loci might have universal effects across studied populations, demonstrating that multiethnic samples are an essential component in identifying, fine mapping, and understanding their trait variability.

Broadening the horizon--level 2.5 of the HUPO-PSI format for molecular interactions.

BACKGROUND: Molecular interaction Information is a key resource in modern biomedical research. Publicly available data have previously been provided in a broad array of diverse formats, making access to this very difficult. The publication and wide implementation of the Human Proteome Organisation Proteomics Standards Initiative Molecular Interactions (HUPO PSI-MI) format in 2004 was a major step towards the establishment of a single, unified format by which molecular interactions should be presented, but focused purely on protein-protein interactions. RESULTS: The HUPO-PSI has further developed the PSI-MI XML schema to enable the description of interactions between a wider range of molecular types, for example nucleic acids, chemical entities, and molecular complexes. Extensive details about each supported molecular interaction can now be captured, including the biological role of each molecule within that interaction, detailed description of interacting domains, and the kinetic parameters of the interaction. The format is supported by data management and analysis tools and has been adopted by major interaction data providers. Additionally, a simpler, tab-delimited format MITAB2.5 has been developed for the benefit of users who require only minimal information in an easy to access configuration. CONCLUSION: The PSI-MI XML2.5 and MITAB2.5 formats have been jointly developed by interaction data producers and providers from both the academic and commercial sector, and are already widely implemented and well supported by an active development community. PSI-MI XML2.5 enables the description of highly detailed molecular interaction data and facilitates data exchange between databases and users without loss of information. MITAB2.5 is a simpler format appropriate for fast Perl parsing or loading into Microsoft Excel.

Coculture of bladder urothelial and smooth muscle cells on small intestinal submucosa: potential applications for tissue engineering technology.

PURPOSE: Small intestinal submucosa is a xenogenic, acellular, collagen rich membrane with inherent growth factors that has previously been shown to promote in vivo bladder regeneration. We evaluate in vitro use of small intestinal submucosa to support the individual and combined growth of bladder urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells for potential use in tissue engineering techniques, and in vitro study of the cellular mechanisms involved in bladder regeneration. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Primary cultures of human bladder urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells were established using standard enzymatic digestion or explant techniques. Cultured cells were then seeded on small intestinal submucosa at a density of 1 x 105 cells per cm.2, incubated and harvested at 3, 7, 14 and 28 days. The 5 separate culture methods evaluated were urothelial cells seeded alone on the mucosal surface of small intestinal submucosa, smooth muscle cells seeded alone on the mucosal surface, layered coculture of smooth muscle cells seeded on the mucosal surface followed by urothelial cells 1 hour later, sandwich coculture of smooth muscle cells seeded on the serosal surface followed by seeding of urothelial cells on the mucosal surface 24 hours later, and mixed coculture of urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells mixed and seeded together on the mucosal surface. Following harvesting at the designated time points small intestinal submucosa cell constructs were formalin fixed and processed for routine histology including Masson trichrome staining. Specific cell growth characteristics were studied with particular attention to cell morphology, cell proliferation and layering, cell sorting, presence of a pseudostratified urothelium and matrix penetrance. To aid in the identification of smooth muscle cells and urothelial cells in the coculture groups, immunohistochemical analysis was performed with antibodies to alpha-smooth muscle actin and cytokeratins AE1/AE3. RESULTS: Progressive 3-dimensional growth of urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells occurred in vitro on small intestinal submucosa. When seeded alone urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells grew in several layers with minimal to no matrix penetration. In contrast, layered, mixed and sandwich coculture methods demonstrated significant enhancement of smooth muscle cell penetration of the membrane. The layered and sandwich coculture techniques resulted in organized cell sorting, formation of a well-defined pseudostratified urothelium and multilayered smooth muscle cells with enhanced matrix penetration. With the mixed coculture technique there was no evidence of cell sorting although matrix penetrance by the smooth muscle cells was evident. Immunohistochemical studies demonstrated that urothelial cells and smooth muscle cells maintain the expression of the phenotypic markers of differentiation alpha-smooth muscle actin and cytokeratins AE1/AE3. CONCLUSIONS: Small intestinal submucosa supports the 3-dimensional growth of human bladder cells in vitro. Successful combined growth of bladder cells on small intestinal submucosa with different seeding techniques has important future clinical implications with respect to tissue engineering technology. The results of our study demonstrate that there are important smooth muscle cell-epithelial cell interactions involved in determining the type of in vitro cell growth that occurs on small intestinal submucosa. Small intestinal submucosa is a valuable tool for in vitro study of the cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions that are involved in regeneration and various disease processes of the bladder.

Seventy-five genetic loci influencing the human red blood cell.

Anaemia is a chief determinant of global ill health, contributing to cognitive impairment, growth retardation and impaired physical capacity. To understand further the genetic factors influencing red blood cells, we carried out a genome-wide association study of haemoglobin concentration and related parameters in up to 135,367 individuals. Here we identify 75 independent genetic loci associated with one or more red blood cell phenotypes at P < 10(-8), which together explain 4-9% of the phenotypic variance per trait. Using expression quantitative trait loci and bioinformatic strategies, we identify 121 candidate genes enriched in functions relevant to red blood cell biology. The candidate genes are expressed preferentially in red blood cell precursors, and 43 have haematopoietic phenotypes in Mus musculus or Drosophila melanogaster. Through open-chromatin and coding-variant analyses we identify potential causal genetic variants at 41 loci. Our findings provide extensive new insights into genetic mechanisms and biological pathways controlling red blood cell formation and function.

L'oeil d'Elephant: l'espace d'un regard

Cette étude envisage le film de Gus Van Sant à partir des théories de l'énonciation narrative, rediscutées à travers cet exemple singulier où le spectateur est convié - du moins en apparence - à adopter successivement, grâce à une « caméra subjective » dont on sonde toute l'ambiguïté, le point de vue de différents personnages. Ce contexte théorique permet de dévoiler certains mécanismes de l'organisation du film et les raisons de l'enraiement de l'identification aux figures de l'écran, fantômes qui semblent s'effacer devant une présence appuyée de la caméra rappelant qu'il s'agit avant tout d'un regard porté sur un fait divers, non d'une explication basée sur des phénomènes d'intériorisation psychologique - Elephant trouve à cet égard, comme l'auteur le montre ici, une position intermédiaire entre le film homonyme réalisé par Alan Clarke en 1989 pour la BBC et Bowling for Columbine de Michael Moore (2002). On y envisage la démarche du cinéaste de façon concrète, comme une manière d'arpenter un espace en prenant des personnages en « filature ».

RNA/DNA co-analysis from blood stains--results of a second collaborative EDNAP exercise.

A second collaborative exercise on RNA/DNA co-analysis for body fluid identification and STR profiling was organized by the European DNA Profiling Group (EDNAP). Six human blood stains, two blood dilution series (5-0.001 μl blood) and, optionally, bona fide or mock casework samples of human or non-human origin were analyzed by the participating laboratories using a RNA/DNA co-extraction or solely RNA extraction method. Two novel mRNA multiplexes were used for the identification of blood: a highly sensitive duplex (HBA, HBB) and a moderately sensitive pentaplex (ALAS2, CD3G, ANK1, SPTB and PBGD). The laboratories used different chemistries and instrumentation. All of the 18 participating laboratories were able to successfully isolate and detect mRNA in dried blood stains. Thirteen laboratories simultaneously extracted RNA and DNA from individual stains and were able to utilize mRNA profiling to confirm the presence of blood and to obtain autosomal STR profiles from the blood stain donors. The positive identification of blood and good quality DNA profiles were also obtained from old and compromised casework samples. The method proved to be reproducible and sensitive using different analysis strategies. The results of this collaborative exercise involving a RNA/DNA co-extraction strategy support the potential use of an mRNA based system for the identification of blood in forensic casework that is compatible with current DNA analysis methodology.

Zoledronic Acid in Reducing Clinical Fracture and Mortality after Hip Fracture.

BACKGROUND: Mortality is increased after a hip fracture, and strategies that improve outcomes are needed. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, 1065 patients were assigned to receive yearly intravenous zoledronic acid (at a dose of 5 mg), and 1062 patients were assigned to receive placebo. The infusions were first administered within 90 days after surgical repair of a hip fracture. All patients received supplemental vitamin D and calcium. The median follow-up was 1.9 years. The primary end point was a new clinical fracture. RESULTS: The rates of any new clinical fracture were 8.6% in the zoledronic acid group and 13.9% in the placebo group, a 35% risk reduction (P = 0.001); the respective rates of a new clinical vertebral fracture were 1.7% and 3.8% (P = 0.02), and the respective rates of new nonvertebral fractures were 7.6% and 10.7% (P = 0.03). In the safety analysis, 101 of 1054 patients in the zoledronic acid group (9.6%) and 141 of 1057 patients in the placebo group (13.3%) died, a reduction of 28% in deaths from any cause in the zoledronic-acid group (P = 0.01). The most frequent adverse events in patients receiving zoledronic acid were pyrexia, myalgia, and bone and musculoskeletal pain. No cases of osteonecrosis of the jaw were reported, and no adverse effects on the healing of fractures were noted. The rates of renal and cardiovascular adverse events, including atrial fibrillation and stroke, were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: An annual infusion of zoledronic acid within 90 days after repair of a low-trauma hip fracture was associated with a reduction in the rate of new clinical fractures and improved survival. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00046254.).