On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research

"Most quantitative empirical analyses are motivated by the desire to estimate the causal effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable. Although the randomized experiment is the most powerful design for this task, in most social science research done outside of psychology, experimental designs are infeasible. (Winship & Morgan, 1999, p. 659)." This quote from earlier work by Winship and Morgan, which was instrumental in setting the groundwork for their book, captures the essence of our review of Morgan and Winship's book: It is about causality in nonexperimental settings.

Lack of association between beta-herpesvirus infection and bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome in lung transplant recipients in the era of antiviral prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV), human herpesvirus-6 and -7 (HHV-6 and -7) are beta-herpesviruses that commonly reactivate and have been proposed to trigger acute rejection and chronic allograft injury. We assessed the contribution of these viruses in the development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) after lung transplantation. METHODS: Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction of bronchoalveolar lavage samples were performed for CMV, HHV-6 and -7 in a prospective cohort of lung transplant recipients. A time-dependent Cox regression analysis was used to correlate the risk of BOS and acute rejection in patients with and without beta-herpesviruses infection. RESULTS: Ninety-three patients were included in the study over a period of 3 years. A total of 581 samples from bronchoalveolar lavage were obtained. Sixty-one patients (65.6%) had at least one positive result for one of the beta-herpesviruses: 48 patients (51.6%) for CMV and 19 patients (20.4%) for both HHV-6 and -7. Median peak viral load was 3419 copies/mL for CMV, 258 copies/mL for HHV-6, and 665 copies/mL for HHV-7. Acute rejection (>or=grade 2) occurred in 46.2% and BOS (>or=stage 1) in 19.4% of the patients. In the Cox regression model the relative risk of acute rejection or BOS was not increased in patients with any beta-herpesviruses reactivation. Acute rejection was the only independently associated risk factor for BOS. CONCLUSIONS: In lung transplant recipients receiving prolonged antiviral prophylaxis, reactivation of beta-herpesviruses within the allograft was common. However, despite high viral loads in many patients, virus replication was not associated with the development of rejection or BOS.

French Swiss physicians' attitude toward palliative sedation: Influence of prognosis and type of suffering.

OBJECTIVE: Palliative sedation is a last resort medical act aimed at relieving intolerable suffering induced by intractable symptoms in patients at the end-of-life. This act is generally accepted as being medically indicated under certain circumstances. A controversy remains in the literature as to its ethical validity. There is a certain vagueness in the literature regarding the legitimacy of palliative sedation in cases of non-physical refractory symptoms, especially "existential suffering." This pilot study aims to measure the influence of two independent variables (short/long prognosis and physical/existential suffering) on the physicians' attitudes toward palliative sedation (dependent variable). METHODS: We used a 2 × 2 experimental design as described by Blondeau et al. Four clinical vignettes were developed (vignette 1: short prognosis/existential suffering; vignette 2: long prognosis/existential suffering; vignette 3: short prognosis/physical suffering; vignette 4: long prognosis/physical suffering). Each vignette presented a terminally ill patient with a summary description of his physical and psychological condition, medication, and family situation. The respondents' attitude towards sedation was assessed with a six-point Likert scale. A total of 240 vignettes were sent to selected Swiss physicians. RESULTS: 74 vignettes were completed (36%). The means scores for attitudes were 2.62 ± 2.06 (v1), 1.88 ± 1.54 (v2), 4.54 ± 1.67 (v3), and 4.75 ± 1.71 (v4). General linear model analyses indicated that only the type of suffering had a significant impact on the attitude towards sedation (F = 33.92, df = 1, p = 0.000). Significance of the results: The French Swiss physicians' attitude toward palliative sedation is more favorable in case of physical suffering than in existential suffering. These results are in line with those found in the study of Blondeau et al. with Canadian physicians and will be discussed in light of the arguments given by physicians to explain their decisions.

Women in leadership: Three essays

GENDER EMPOWERMENT: EFFECTS OF GODS, GEOGRAPHY, AND GDP¦Fenley, M., & Antonakis, J.¦ABSTRACT¦We examined the determinants of women's empowerment in the economy and political leadership in 178 countries. Given the androcentric nature of most religions, we hypothesized that high degrees of country-level theistic belief create social conditions that impede the progression of women to power. The dependent variable was the Gender Empowerment index of the United Nations Development Program, which captures the participation of women in political leadership, management, and their share of national income. Controlling for GDP per capita as well as the fixed-effects of the dominant type of religion and legal origin and instrumenting all endogenous variables with geographic or historical variables, our results show that atheism has a significant positive effect on gender empowerment. These results are driven by the rule of law, which in addition to being a catalyst for economic development, appears to crowd-out the informal regulation of behavior due to religious norms.¦DEVELOPING WOMEN LEADERS: COMPARING A TRANSFORMATIONAL AND A CHARISMATIC LEADERSHIP INTERVENTION¦Fenley, M., Jacquart, P., & Antonakis, J.¦ABSTRACT¦Along with a gender imbalance in leadership role occupancy, most leadership interventions have been conducted with samples of men. We conducted an experiment wherein we assigned female participants (n = 38, mean age = 35 years) to one of two conditions: Transformational (i.e., "standard") leadership training or charismatic leadership training. The two interventions were essentially equivalent, except that we also focused on developing the "charismatic leadership tactics" (e.g., rhetorical skills) of participants in the charismatic condition. After the interventions, we randomly assigned participants into problem-solving teams that required extensive interaction. Each team had an equal number of participants having received transformational training or charismatic training. At the end of the team exercises, participants rated each of their team members on a leadership prototypicality measure. Results indicated that those who received charismatic training scored higher (a) on prototypicality (standardized  = .42) and (b) on a test of declarative knowledge of charismatic rhetorical strategies (i.e., a manipulation check, standardized  = .76). Furthermore, the score on the test fully mediated the effect of the treatment on prototypicality (standardized indirect  = .32). We discuss the importance and practical implications of these results.¦CHANGING ATTITUDES TOWARDS WOMEN IN A MALE SEX-TYPE WORK ENVIRONMENT: EVIDENCE FROM A FIELD EXPERIMENT IN EUROPEAN ATHLETICS¦Fenley, M.¦ABSTRACT¦Most sports organizations have a similar gender gap in leadership as do the majority of non-sport organizations. Women's careers sputter somewhere at coaching level positions and few women obtain top leadership positions. Greater awareness of gender inequalities in general, and in leadership in particular, could decrease gender discrimination and increase women's presence at upper levels. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of an intervention using an online gender awareness exercise. Participants (n = 1,001 participants, n = 32 countries) were randomly assigned to one of eight conditions in a 2 (a discriminating perspective-taking story or a non-discriminating perspective-taking story) by 2 (gender quiz or no gender quiz) by 2 (diversity quiz or no diversity quiz) factorial design. The results show that the online perspective taking exercise changed initial sexist attitudes. Participants having taken a diversity quiz had less sexist attitudes (as measured by the Modern- and Old-fashioned sexism scale) than did participants who did not take the diversity quiz (irrespective of perspective-taking story). The combination of having taken a diversity quiz with a gender quiz had the biggest impact on attitudes for the non-discriminating story.

Testing mediation: The endogeneity problem and the solution

A mediator is a dependent variable, m (e.g., charisma), that is thought to channel the effect of an independent variable, x (e.g., receiving training or not), on another dependent variable (e.g., subordinate satisfaction), y. In experimental settings x is manipulated-subjects are randomized to treatment-to isolate the causal effect of x on other variables. If m is not or cannot be manipulated, which is often the case, its causal effect on other variables cannot be determined; thus, standard mediation tests cannot inform policy or practice. I will show how an econometric procedure, called instrumental-variable estimation, can examine mediation in such cases.

Context-dependent interpretation of the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The mutation status of the BRAF and KRAS genes has been proposed as prognostic biomarker in colorectal cancer. Of them, only the BRAF V600E mutation has been validated independently as prognostic for overall survival and survival after relapse, while the prognostic value of KRAS mutation is still unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in various contexts defined by stratifications of the patient population. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer from the PETACC-3 clinical trial (N = 1,423), by assessing the prognostic value of the BRAF and KRAS mutations in subpopulations defined by all possible combinations of the following clinico-pathological variables: T stage, N stage, tumor site, tumor grade and microsatellite instability status. In each such subpopulation, the prognostic value was assessed by log rank test for three endpoints: overall survival, relapse-free survival, and survival after relapse. The significance level was set to 0.01 for Bonferroni-adjusted p-values, and a second threshold for a trend towards statistical significance was set at 0.05 for unadjusted p-values. The significance of the interactions was tested by Wald test, with significance level of 0.05. RESULTS: In stage II-III colorectal cancer, BRAF mutation was confirmed a marker of poor survival only in subpopulations involving microsatellite stable and left-sided tumors, with higher effects than in the whole population. There was no evidence for prognostic value in microsatellite instable or right-sided tumor groups. We found that BRAF was also prognostic for relapse-free survival in some subpopulations. We found no evidence that KRAS mutations had prognostic value, although a trend was observed in some stratifications. We also show evidence of heterogeneity in survival of patients with BRAF V600E mutation. CONCLUSIONS: The BRAF mutation represents an additional risk factor only in some subpopulations of colorectal cancers, in others having limited prognostic value. However, in the subpopulations where it is prognostic, it represents a marker of much higher risk than previously considered. KRAS mutation status does not seem to represent a strong prognostic variable.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities

Aim This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.

Environmental control of the Pom1-dependent cell-size regulation pathway in fission yeast

Cells couple their growth and division rate in response to nutrient availability to maintain a constant size. This co-ordination happens either at the G1-S or the G2-M transition of the cell cycle. In the rod-shaped fission yeast, size regulation happens at the G2-M transition prior to mitotic commitment. Recent studies have focused on the role of the DYRK-family protein kinase Pom1, which forms gradients emanating from cell poles and inhibits the mitotic activator kinase Cdr2, present at the cell middle. Pom1 was proposed to inhibit Cdr2 until cells reached a critical size before division. However when and where Pom1 inhibits Cdr2 is not clear as medial Pom1 levels do not change during cell elongation. Here I show that Pom1 gradients are susceptible to environmental changes in glucose. Specifically, upon glucose limitation, Pom1 re-localizes from the poles to the cell sides where it delays mitosis through regulating Cdr2. This re-localization occurs due to microtubule de- stabilization and lateral catastrophes leading to transient deposition of the Pom1 gradient nucleator Tea4 along the cell cortex. As Tea4 localization to cell sides is sufficient to recruit Pom1, this explains the mechanism of Pom1 re-localization. Microtubule destabilization and consequently Tea4 and Pom1 spread depends on the activity of the cAMP-dependent Protein Kinase A (PKA/Pka1), as pka1 mutant cells have stable microtubules and retain polar Tea4 and Pom1 under limited glucose. PKA signaling negatively regulates the microtubule rescue factor CLASP/Cls1, thus reducing its ability to stabilize microtubules. Thus PKA signaling tunes CLASP activity to promote microtubule de-stabilization and Pom1 re-localization upon glucose limitation. I show that the side-localized Pom1 delays mitosis and balances the role of the mitosis promoting, mitogen-associated protein kinase (MAPK) protein Sty1. Thus Pom1 re-localization may serve to buffer cell size upon glucose limitation. -- Afin de maintenir une taille constante, les cellules régulent leur croissance ainsi que leur taux de division selon les nutriments disponibles dans le milieu. Dans la levure fissipare, cette régulation de la taille précède l'engagement mitotique et se fait à la transition entre les phases G2 à M du cycle cellulaire. Des études récentes se sont focalisées sur le rôle de la protéine Pom1, membre de la famille des DYRK kinase. Celle-ci forme un gradient provenant des pôles de la cellule et inhibe l'activateur mitotique Cdr2 présent au centre de la cellule. Le model propose que Pom1 inhibe Cdr2 jusqu'à atteindre une taille critique avant la division. Cependant quand et à quel endroit dans la cellulle Pom1 inhibe Cdr2 n'était pas clair car les niveaux médians de Pom1 ne changent pas au cours de la l'élongation des cellules. Dans cette étude, je montre que les gradients de Pom1 sont sensibles aux changements environnementaux du taux de glucose. Plus spécifiquement, en conditions limitantes de glucose, Pom1 se relocalise des pôles de la cellule pour se distribuer sur les côtés de celle-ci. Par conséquent, un délai d'entrée en mitose est observé dû à l'inhibition Cdr2 par Pom1. Cette délocalisation est due à la déstabilisation des microtubules qui va conduire à une déposition transitoire de Tea4, le nucléateur du gradient de Pom1, tout au long du cortex de la cellule. Comme la localisation de Tea4 sur les côtés de la cellule est suffisante pour recruter la protéine Pom1, ceci explique le mécanisme de relocalisation de celle-ci. La déstabilisation des microtubules et par conséquent la diffusion de Tea4 et Pom1 dépendent de l'activité de la protéine kinase A dépendante de l'AMP cyclique (PKA/Pka1). En absence de pka1, la stabilité des microtubules n'est pas affectée ce qui permet la rétention de Tea4 et Pom1 aux pôles de la cellule même en conditions limitantes de glucose. La signalisation via PKA régule négativement le facteur de sauvetage des microtubules CLASP/Cls1 et permet donc de réduire sa fonction de déstabilisation des microtubules. Ainsi la signalisation via PKA affine l'activité des CLASP pour promouvoir la déstabilisation des microtubules et la relocalisation de Pom1 en conditions limitantes de glucose. Je montre que la localisation sur les côtés retarde l'entrée en mitose et compense l'action de la protéine Sty1, connue pour être une MAPK qui induit l'entrée en mitose. Ainsi, la relocalisation de Pom1 pourrait servir à tamponner la taille de la cellule en condition limitantes de glucose. -- Various cell types in the environment such as bacterial, plant or animal cells have a distinct cellular size. Maintaining a constant cell size is important for fitness in unicellular organisms and for diverse functions in multicellular organisms. Cells regulate their size by coordinating their growth rate to their division rate. This coupling is important otherwise cells would get progressively smaller or larger after each successive cell cycle. In their natural environment cells may face fluctuations in the available nutrient supply. Thus cells have to coordinate their division rate to the variable growth rates shown under different nutrient conditions. During my PhD, I worked with a single-celled rod shaped yeast called the fission yeast. These cells are longer when the nutrient supply is abundant and shorter when the nutrient supply is scarce. A protein that senses changes in the external carbon source (glucose) is called Protein Kinase A (PKA). The rod shape of fission yeast cells is maintained thanks to a structural backbone called the cytoskeleton. One of the components of this backbone is called microtubules, which are small tube like structures spanning the length of the cell. They transport a protein called Tea4, which in turn is important for the proper localization of another protein Pom1 to the cell ends. Pom1 helps to maintain proper shape and size of these rod shaped yeast cells. My thesis work showed that upon reduction in the external nutrient (glucose) levels, microtubules become less stable and show an alteration in their organization. A significant percentage of the microtubules contact the side of the cell instead of touching only the cell tip. This leads to the spreading of the protein Pom1 away from the tips all around the cell periphery. This helps fission yeast cells to maintain the proper size required under these conditions of limited glucose supply. I further showed that the protein PKA regulates microtubule stability and organization and thus Pom1 spreading and maintenance of proper cell size. Thus my work led to the discovery of a novel pathway by which fission yeast cells maintain their size under limited supply of glucose. -- Divers types cellulaires dans l'environnement tels que les bactéries, les plantes ou les cellules animales ont une taille précise. Le maintien d'une taille cellulaire constante est importante pour le fitness des organismes unicellulaire ainsi que pour multiples fonctions dans les organismes multicellulaires. Les cellules régulent leur taille en coordonnant le taux de croissance avec le taux de division. Ce couplage est essentiel sinon les cellules deviendraient progressivement plus petites ou plus grandes après chaque cycle cellulaire. Dans leur habitat naturels les cellules peuvent faire face a des fluctuations dans le taux de nutriment disponible. Les cellules doivent donc coordonner leur taux de division aux taux variables de croissances perçus dans les différentes conditions nutritionnels. Pendant ma thèse, j'ai travaillée sur une levure unicellulaire, en forme de bâtonnet, nommé levure fissipare ou levure de fission. La taille de ces cellules est plus grande quand le taux de nutriments est grand et plus courte quand celui-ci est plus faible. Une protéine qui perçoit les changements dans le taux externe de la source de carbone (glucose) est nommée PKA pour protéine kinase A. La forme en bâtonnet de la cellule est due aux caractères structuraux du cytosquelette. Une composante importante de ce cytosquelette sont les microtubules, dont la structures ressemble à des petit tubes qui vont d'un bout à l'autre de la cellule. Ces microtubules transportent une protéine importante nommée Tea4 qui à leur tour importante pour la bonne localisation d'une autre protéine Pom1 aux extrémités de la cellule. La protéine Pom1 aide à maintenir la taille appropriée des levures fissipares. Mon travail de thèse a montré qu'en présence de taux faible de nutriments (glucose) les microtubules deviennent de moins en moins stables et montrent une désorganisation globale. Un pourcentage significatif des microtubules touche les côtés de la cellule aux lieu d'atteindre uniquement les extrémités. Ceci a pour conséquence une diffusion de Pom1 tout au long du cortex de la cellule. Ceci aide les levures fissipares à maintenir la taille appropriée pendant ce stress nutritionnel. De plus, je montre que PKA régule la stabilité et l'organisation des microtubules et par conséquent la diffusion de Pom1 et le maintien d'une taille constante. En conclusion, mon travail a conduit à la découverte d'un nouveau mécanisme par lequel la levure fissipare maintient sa taille dans des conditions limitantes en glucose.

Dose-dependent positive association between cigarette smoking, abdominal obesity and body fat: cross-sectional data from a population-based survey.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Although smokers tend to have a lower body-mass index than non-smokers, smoking may favour abdominal body fat accumulation. To our knowledge, no population-based studies have assessed the relationship between smoking and body fat composition. We assessed the association between cigarette smoking and waist circumference, body fat, and body-mass index. METHODS: Height, weight, and waist circumference were measured among 6,123 Caucasians (ages 35-75) from a cross-sectional population-based study in Switzerland. Abdominal obesity was defined as waist circumference>=102 cm for men and >=88 cm for women. Body fat (percent total body weight) was measured by electrical bioimpedance. Age- and sex-specific body fat cut-offs were used to define excess body fat. Cigarettes smoked per day were assessed by self-administered questionnaire. Age-adjusted means and odds ratios were calculated using linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: Current smokers (29% of men and 24% of women) had lower mean waist circumference, body fat percentage, and body-mass index compared with non-smokers. Age-adjusted mean waist circumference and body fat increased with cigarettes smoked per day among smokers. The association between cigarettes smoked per day and body-mass index was non-significant. Compared with light smokers, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for abdominal obesity in men was 1.28 (0.78-2.10) for moderate smokers and 1.94 (1.15-3.27) for heavy smokers (P=0.03 for trend), and 1.07 (0.72-1.58) and 2.15 (1.26-3.64) in female moderate and heavy smokers, respectively (P<0.01 for trend). Compared with light smokers, the OR for excess body fat in men was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.58-1.92) for moderate smokers and 1.15 (0.60-2.20) for heavy smokers (P=0.75 for trend) and 1.34 (0.89-2.00) and 2.11 (1.25-3.57), respectively in women (P=0.07 for trend). CONCLUSION: Among smokers, cigarettes smoked per day were positively associated with central fat accumulation, particularly in women.

Quality of life depends on the drinking pattern in alcohol-dependent patients.

AIMS: In patients with alcohol dependence, health-related quality of life (QOL) is reduced compared with that of a normal healthy population. The objective of the current analysis was to describe the evolution of health-related QOL in adults with alcohol dependence during a 24-month period after initial assessment for alcohol-related treatment in a routine practice setting, and its relation to drinking pattern which was evaluated across clusters based on the predominant pattern of alcohol use, set against the influence of baseline variables METHODS: The Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Survey (MOS-SF-36) was used to measure QOL at baseline and quarterly for 2 years among participants in CONTROL, a prospective observational study of patients initiating treatment for alcohol dependence. The sample consisted of 160 adults with alcohol dependence (65.6% males) with a mean (SD) age of 45.6 (12.0) years. Alcohol use data were collected using TimeLine Follow-Back. Based on the participant's reported alcohol use, three clusters were identified: 52 (32.5%) mostly abstainers, 64 (40.0%) mostly moderate drinkers and 44 (27.5%) mostly heavy drinkers. Mixed-effect linear regression analysis was used to identify factors that were potentially associated with the mental and physical summary MOS-SF-36 scores at each time point. RESULTS: The mean (SD) MOS-SF-36 mental component summary score (range 0-100, norm 50) was 35.7 (13.6) at baseline [mostly abstainers: 40.4 (14.6); mostly moderate drinkers 35.6 (12.4); mostly heavy drinkers 30.1 (12.1)]. The score improved to 43.1 (13.4) at 3 months [mostly abstainers: 47.4 (12.3); mostly moderate drinkers 44.2 (12.7); mostly heavy drinkers 35.1 (12.9)], to 47.3 (11.4) at 12 months [mostly abstainers: 51.7 (9.7); mostly moderate drinkers 44.8 (11.9); mostly heavy drinkers 44.1 (11.3)], and to 46.6 (11.1) at 24 months [mostly abstainers: 49.2 (11.6); mostly moderate drinkers 45.7 (11.9); mostly heavy drinkers 43.7 (8.8)]. Mixed-effect linear regression multivariate analyses indicated that there was a significant association between a lower 2-year follow-up MOS-SF-36 mental score and being a mostly heavy drinker (-6.97, P < 0.001) or mostly moderate drinker (-3.34 points, P = 0.018) [compared to mostly abstainers], being female (-3.73, P = 0.004), and having a Beck Inventory scale score ≥8 (-6.54, P < 0.001), at baseline. The mean (SD) MOS-SF-36 physical component summary score was 48.8 (10.6) at baseline, remained stable over the follow-up and did not differ across the three clusters. Mixed-effect linear regression univariate analyses found that the average 2-year follow-up MOS-SF-36 physical score was increased (compared with mostly abstainers) in mostly heavy drinkers (+4.44, P = 0.007); no other variables tested influenced the MOS-SF-36 physical score. CONCLUSION: Among individuals with alcohol dependence, a rapid improvement was seen in the mental dimension of QOL following treatment initiation, which was maintained during 24 months. Improvement was associated with the pattern of alcohol use, becoming close to the general population norm in patients classified as mostly abstainers, improving substantially in mostly moderate drinkers and improving only slightly in mostly heavy drinkers. The physical dimension of QOL was generally in the normal range but was not associated with drinking patterns.

Density-dependent pollen limitation and reproductive assurance in a wind-pollinated herb with contrasting sexual systems

1. Wind pollination is thought to have evolved in response to selection for mechanisms to promote pollination success, when animal pollinators become scarce or unreliable. We might thus expect wind-pollinated plants to be less prone to pollen limitation than their insect-pollinated counterparts. Yet, if pollen loads on stigmas of wind-pollinated species decline with distance from pollen donors, seed set might nevertheless be pollen-limited in populations of plants that cannot self-fertilize their progeny, but not in self-compatible hermaphroditic populations.2. Here, we test this hypothesis by comparing pollen limitation between dioecious and hermaphroditic (monoecious) populations of the wind-pollinated herb Mercurialis annua.3. In natural populations, seed set was pollen-limited in low-density patches of dioecious, but not hermaphroditic, M. annua, a finding consistent with patterns of distance-dependent seed set by females in an experimental array. Nevertheless, seed set was incomplete in both dioecious and hermaphroditic populations, even at high local densities. Further, both factors limited the seed set of females and hermaphrodites, after we manipulated pollen and resource availability in a common garden experiment.4. Synthesis. Our results are consistent with the idea that pollen limitation plays a role in the evolution of combined vs. separate sexes in M. annua. Taken together, they point to the potential importance of pollen transfer between flowers on the same plant (geitonogamy) by wind as a mechanism of reproductive assurance and to the dual roles played by pollen and resource availability in limiting seed set. Thus, seed set can be pollen-limited in sparse populations of a wind-pollinated species, where mates are rare or absent, having potentially important demographic and evolutionary implications.

No experimental evidence that sibling competition induces young to switch nests in the colonial Alpine swift, Apus melba

Adoption is frequent in colonial animals where opportunities for dependent young to receive care from nonbiological parents are high. The departure of dependent young from their original family to seek adoption in neighbouring families is thought to be induced by sibling competition for access to limited resources provided by poor-quality parents. We tested this hypothesis in the colonial Alpine swift by manipulating the number of young reared per brood, with the prediction that offspring from enlarged broods switch nests more frequently than those from reduced broods. Although nestling swifts hatch with little locomotor activity, from 20 days until their first flight at 50-70 days they frequently move out of their nests to seek adoption in neighbouring families. Although nestlings reared in experimentally enlarged broods were lighter and their body mass at day 20 after hatching was more variable than in nestlings reared in reduced broods, there was no difference between the two treatments in the frequency of nests switching and in the age when nestlings switched nests for the first time. However, consistent with other evidence that nest switching by nestling swifts evolved as a strategy to reduce ectoparasite load, young from broods with naturally high numbers of the ectoparasitic louse fly Crataerina melbae were more prone to switch nests. This shows that ectoparasitism rather than sibling competition is a key proximate factor promoting the evolution of nest switching in the colonial Alpine swift. (c) 2006 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cutaneous cancer stem cell maintenance is dependent on beta-catenin signalling.

Continuous turnover of epithelia is ensured by the extensive self-renewal capacity of tissue-specific stem cells. Similarly, epithelial tumour maintenance relies on cancer stem cells (CSCs), which co-opt stem cell properties. For most tumours, the cellular origin of these CSCs and regulatory pathways essential for sustaining stemness have not been identified. In murine skin, follicular morphogenesis is driven by bulge stem cells that specifically express CD34. Here we identify a population of cells in early epidermal tumours characterized by phenotypic and functional similarities to normal bulge skin stem cells. This population contains CSCs, which are the only cells with tumour initiation properties. Transplants derived from these CSCs preserve the hierarchical organization of the primary tumour. We describe beta-catenin signalling as being essential in sustaining the CSC phenotype. Ablation of the beta-catenin gene results in the loss of CSCs and complete tumour regression. In addition, we provide evidence for the involvement of increased beta-catenin signalling in malignant human squamous cell carcinomas. Because Wnt/beta-catenin signalling is not essential for normal epidermal homeostasis, such a mechanistic difference may thus be targeted to eliminate CSCs and consequently eradicate squamous cell carcinomas.