No evidence for a causal link between uric acid and type 2 diabetes: a Mendelian randomisation approach.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Epidemiological and experimental evidence suggests that uric acid has a role in the aetiology of type 2 diabetes. Using a Mendelian randomisation approach, we investigated whether there is evidence for a causal role of serum uric acid for development of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We examined the associations of serum-uric-acid-raising alleles of eight common variants recently identified in genome-wide association studies and summarised this in a genetic score with type 2 diabetes in case-control studies including 7,504 diabetes patients and 8,560 non-diabetic controls. We compared the observed effect size to that expected based on: (1) the association between the genetic score and uric acid levels in non-diabetic controls; and (2) the meta-analysed uric acid level to diabetes association. RESULTS: The genetic score showed a linear association with uric acid levels, with a difference of 12.2 μmol/l (95% CI 9.3, 15.1) by score tertile. No significant associations were observed between the genetic score and potential confounders. No association was observed between the genetic score and type 2 diabetes with an OR of 0.99 (95% CI 0.94, 1.04) per score tertile, significantly different (p = 0.046) from that expected (1.04 [95% CI 1.03, 1.05]) based on the observed uric acid difference by score tertile and the uric acid to diabetes association of 1.21 (95% CI 1.14, 1.29) per 60 μmol/l. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our results do not support a causal role of serum uric acid for the development of type 2 diabetes and limit the expectation that uric-acid-lowering drugs will be effective in the prevention of type 2 diabetes.

Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE): explanation and elaboration.

Much medical research is observational. The reporting of observational studies is often of insufficient quality. Poor reporting hampers the assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of a study and the generalisability of its results. Taking into account empirical evidence and theoretical considerations, a group of methodologists, researchers, and editors developed the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) recommendations to improve the quality of reporting of observational studies. The STROBE Statement consists of a checklist of 22 items, which relate to the title, abstract, introduction, methods, results and discussion sections of articles. Eighteen items are common to cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies and four are specific to each of the three study designs. The STROBE Statement provides guidance to authors about how to improve the reporting of observational studies and facilitates critical appraisal and interpretation of studies by reviewers, journal editors and readers. This explanatory and elaboration document is intended to enhance the use, understanding, and dissemination of the STROBE Statement. The meaning and rationale for each checklist item are presented. For each item, one or several published examples and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies and methodological literature are provided. Examples of useful flow diagrams are also included. The STROBE Statement, this document, and the associated Web site (http://www.strobe-statement.org/) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of observational research.

Autistic spectrum disorder: evaluating a possible contributing or causal role of epilepsy.

The onset of epilepsy in brain systems involved in social communication and/or recognition of emotions can occasionally be the cause of autistic symptoms or may aggravate preexisting autistic symptoms. Knowing that cognitive and/or behavioral abnormalities can be the presenting and sometimes the only symptom of an epileptic disorder or can even be caused by paroxysmal EEG abnormalities without recognized seizures, the possibility that this may apply to autism has given rise to much debate. Epilepsy and/or epileptic EEG abnormalities are frequently associated with autistic disorders in children but this does not necessarily imply that they are the cause; great caution needs to be exercised before drawing any such conclusions. So far, there is no evidence that typical autism can be attributed to an epileptic disorder, even in those children with a history of regression after normal early development. Nevertheless, there are several early epilepsies (late infantile spasms, partial complex epilepsies, epilepsies with CSWS, early forms of Landau-Kleffner syndrome) and with different etiologies (tuberous sclerosis is an important model of these situations) in which a direct relationship between epilepsy and some features of autism may be suspected. In young children who primarily have language regression (and who may have autistic features) without evident cause, and in whom paroxysmal focal EEG abnormalities are also found, the possible direct role of epilepsy can only be evaluated in longitudinal studies.

Investigating the possible causal association of smoking with depression and anxiety using Mendelian randomisation meta-analysis: the CARTA consortium.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether associations of smoking with depression and anxiety are likely to be causal, using a Mendelian randomisation approach. DESIGN: Mendelian randomisation meta-analyses using a genetic variant (rs16969968/rs1051730) as a proxy for smoking heaviness, and observational meta-analyses of the associations of smoking status and smoking heaviness with depression, anxiety and psychological distress. PARTICIPANTS: Current, former and never smokers of European ancestry aged ≥16 years from 25 studies in the Consortium for Causal Analysis Research in Tobacco and Alcohol (CARTA). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Binary definitions of depression, anxiety and psychological distress assessed by clinical interview, symptom scales or self-reported recall of clinician diagnosis. RESULTS: The analytic sample included up to 58 176 never smokers, 37 428 former smokers and 32 028 current smokers (total N=127 632). In observational analyses, current smokers had 1.85 times greater odds of depression (95% CI 1.65 to 2.07), 1.71 times greater odds of anxiety (95% CI 1.54 to 1.90) and 1.69 times greater odds of psychological distress (95% CI 1.56 to 1.83) than never smokers. Former smokers also had greater odds of depression, anxiety and psychological distress than never smokers. There was evidence for positive associations of smoking heaviness with depression, anxiety and psychological distress (ORs per cigarette per day: 1.03 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.04), 1.03 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.04) and 1.02 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.03) respectively). In Mendelian randomisation analyses, there was no strong evidence that the minor allele of rs16969968/rs1051730 was associated with depression (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.05), anxiety (OR=1.02, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.07) or psychological distress (OR=1.02, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.06) in current smokers. Results were similar for former smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from Mendelian randomisation analyses do not support a causal role of smoking heaviness in the development of depression and anxiety.

Causal relationship between obesity and vitamin D status: bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis of multiple cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used information from 21 adult cohorts (up to 42,024 participants) with 12 BMI-related SNPs (combined in an allelic score) to produce an instrument for BMI and four SNPs associated with 25(OH)D (combined in two allelic scores, separately for genes encoding its synthesis or metabolism) as an instrument for vitamin D. Regression estimates for the IVs (allele scores) were generated within-study and pooled by meta-analysis to generate summary effects. Associations between vitamin D scores and BMI were confirmed in the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium (n = 123,864). Each 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI was associated with 1.15% lower 25(OH)D (p = 6.52×10⁻²⁷). The BMI allele score was associated both with BMI (p = 6.30×10⁻⁶²) and 25(OH)D (-0.06% [95% CI -0.10 to -0.02], p = 0.004) in the cohorts that underwent meta-analysis. The two vitamin D allele scores were strongly associated with 25(OH)D (p≤8.07×10⁻⁵⁷ for both scores) but not with BMI (synthesis score, p = 0.88; metabolism score, p = 0.08) in the meta-analysis. A 10% higher genetically instrumented BMI was associated with 4.2% lower 25(OH)D concentrations (IV ratio: -4.2 [95% CI -7.1 to -1.3], p = 0.005). No association was seen for genetically instrumented 25(OH)D with BMI, a finding that was confirmed using data from the GIANT consortium (p≥0.57 for both vitamin D scores). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of a bi-directional genetic approach that limits confounding, our study suggests that a higher BMI leads to lower 25(OH)D, while any effects of lower 25(OH)D increasing BMI are likely to be small. Population level interventions to reduce BMI are expected to decrease the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Genome sequencing of the plant pathogen Taphrina deformans, the causal agent of peach leaf curl.

Taphrina deformans is a fungus responsible for peach leaf curl, an important plant disease. It is phylogenetically assigned to the Taphrinomycotina subphylum, which includes the fission yeast and the mammalian pathogens of the genus Pneumocystis. We describe here the genome of T. deformans in the light of its dual plant-saprophytic/plant-parasitic lifestyle. The 13.3-Mb genome contains few identifiable repeated elements (ca. 1.5%) and a relatively high GC content (49.5%). A total of 5,735 protein-coding genes were identified, among which 83% share similarities with other fungi. Adaptation to the plant host seems reflected in the genome, since the genome carries genes involved in plant cell wall degradation (e.g., cellulases and cutinases), secondary metabolism, the hallmark glyoxylate cycle, detoxification, and sterol biosynthesis, as well as genes involved in the biosynthesis of plant hormones. Genes involved in lipid metabolism may play a role in its virulence. Several locus candidates for putative MAT cassettes and sex-related genes akin to those of Schizosaccharomyces pombe were identified. A mating-type-switching mechanism similar to that found in ascomycetous yeasts could be in effect. Taken together, the findings are consistent with the alternate saprophytic and parasitic-pathogenic lifestyles of T. deformans. IMPORTANCE: Peach leaf curl is an important plant disease which causes significant losses of fruit production. We report here the genome sequence of the causative agent of the disease, the fungus Taphrina deformans. The genome carries characteristic genes that are important for the plant infection process. These include (i) proteases that allow degradation of the plant tissues; (ii) secondary metabolites which are products favoring interaction of the fungus with the environment, including the host; (iii) hormones that are responsible for the symptom of severely distorted leaves on the host; and (iv) drug detoxification enzymes that confer resistance to fungicides. The availability of the genome allows the design of new drug targets as well as the elaboration of specific management strategies to fight the disease.

A Mendelian randomization approach to assess the causal relationship of gamma-glutamyl transferase with blood pressure and insulin

Background: Elevated levels of g-glutamyl transferase (GGT) have been associated with subsequent risk of elevated blood pressure (BP), hypertension and diabetes. However, the causality of these relationships has not been addressed. Mendelian randomization refers to the random allocation of alleles at the time of gamete formation. Such allocation is expected to be independent of any behavioural and environmental factors (known or unknown), allowing the analysis of largely unconfounded risk associations that are not due to reverse causation. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis among 4361 participants to the population based CoLaus study. Associations of sex-specific GGT quartiles with systolic BP, diastolic BP and insulin levels were assessed using multivariable linear regression analyses. The rs2017869 GGT1 variant, which explained 1.6% of the variance in GGT levels, was used as an instrument to perform a Mendelian randomization analysis. Results: Median age of the study population was 53 years. After age and sex adjustment, GGT quartiles were strongly associated with systolic and diastolic BP (all p for linear trend <0.0001). After multivariable adjustment, these relationships were significantly attenuated, but remained significant for systolic (b(95%CI)¼1.30 (0.32;2.03), p¼0.007) and diastolic BP (b (95%CI)¼0.57 (0.02;1.13), p¼0.04). Using Mendelian randomization, we observed no positive association of GGT with either systolic BP (b (95%CI)¼-5.68 (-11.51-0.16), p¼0.06) or diastolic BP (b (95%CI)¼ -2.24 (-5.98;1.49) p¼0.24). The association of GGT with insulin was also attenuated after multivariable adjustment. Nevertheless, a strong linear trend persisted in the fully adjusted model (b (95%CI)¼0.07 (0.04;0.09), p<0.0001). Using Mendelian randomization, we observed a similar positive association of GGT with insulin (b (95%CI)¼0.19 (0.01-0.37), p¼0.04). Conclusion: In this study, we found evidence for a direct causal relationship between GGT and insulin, suggesting that oxidative stress may be causally implicated in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research

"Most quantitative empirical analyses are motivated by the desire to estimate the causal effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable. Although the randomized experiment is the most powerful design for this task, in most social science research done outside of psychology, experimental designs are infeasible. (Winship & Morgan, 1999, p. 659)." This quote from earlier work by Winship and Morgan, which was instrumental in setting the groundwork for their book, captures the essence of our review of Morgan and Winship's book: It is about causality in nonexperimental settings.