The Omega model: from bankruptcy to occupation times in the red

Ruin occurs the first time when the surplus of a company or an institution is negative. In the Omega model, it is assumed that even with a negative surplus, the company can do business as usual until bankruptcy occurs. The probability of bankruptcy at a point of time only depends on the value of the negative surplus at that time. Under the assumption of Brownian motion for the surplus, the expected discounted value of a penalty at bankruptcy is determined, and hence the probability of bankruptcy. There is an intrinsic relation between the probability of no bankruptcy and an exposure random variable. In special cases, the distribution of the total time the Brownian motion spends below zero is found, and the Laplace transform of the integral of the negative part of the Brownian motion is expressed in terms of the Airy function of the first kind.

Signalling value of maternal and paternal melanism in the barn owl : implication for the resolution of the lek paradox

Secondary sexual characters often signal qualities such as physiological processes associated with resistance to various sources of stress. When the expression of an ornament is not sex-limited, we can identify the costs and benefits of displaying a trait that is typical of its own sex or of the other sex. Indeed, the magnitude and sign of the covariation between physiology and the extent to which an ornament is expressed could differ between males and females if, for instance, the regulation of physiological processes is sensitive to sex hormones. Using data collected over 14 years in the nocturnal barn owl Tyto alba, we investigated how nestling body mass covaries with a heritable melanin-based sex-trait, females displaying on average larger black feather spots than males. Independently of nestling sex, year and time of the day large-spotted nestlings were heavier than small-spotted nestlings. In contrast, the magnitude and sign of the covariation between nestling body mass and the size of parental spots varied along the day in a way that depended on the year and parental gender. In poor years, offspring of smaller-spotted mothers were heavier throughout the resting period; in the morning, offspring sired by larger-spotted fathers were heavier than offspring of smaller-spotted fathers, while in the evening the opposite pattern was found. Thus, maternal and paternal coloration is differentially associated with behaviour or physiology, processes that are sensitive to time of the day and environmental factors. Interestingly, the covariation between offspring body mass and paternal coloration is more sensitive to these environmental factors than the covariation with maternal coloration. This indicates that the benefit of pairing with differently spotted males may depend on environmental conditions, which could help maintain genetic variation in the face of intense directional (sexual) selection.

Clinical evolution after a non-reactive hypothermic EEG following cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: Lack of electroencephalography (EEG) background reactivity during therapeutic hypothermia (TH) has been associated with poor outcome in post-anoxic comatose patients. However, decision on intensive care withdrawal is based on normothermic (NT) evaluations. This study aims at exploring whether patients showing recovery of EEG reactivity in NT after a non-reactive EEG in TH differ from those remaining non-reactive. METHODS: Patients with non-reactive EEG during TH were identified from our prospective registry of consecutive comatose adults admitted after successful resuscitation from CA between April 2009 and June 2014. Variables including neurological examination, serum neuron-specific enolase (NSE), procalcitonin, and EEG features were compared regarding impact on functional outcome at 3 months. RESULTS: Seventy-two of 197 patients (37 %) had a non-reactive EEG background during TH with thirteen (18 %) evolving towards reactivity in NT. Compared to those remaining non-reactive (n = 59), they showed significantly better recovery of brainstem reflexes (p < 0.001), better motor responses (p < 0.001), transitory consciousness improvement (p = 0.008), and a tendency toward lower NSE (p = 0.067). One patient recovering EEG reactivity survived with good functional outcome at 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: Recovery of EEG reactivity from TH to NT seems to distinguish two patients' subgroups regarding early neurological assessment and transitory consciousness improvement, corroborating the role of EEG in providing information about cerebral functions. Understanding these dynamic changes encourages maintenance of intensive support in selected patients even after a non-reactive EEG background in TH, as a small subgroup may indeed recover with good functional outcome.

Was bringt die Masern-Passivimpfung nach Exposition? [What is the value of measles passive vaccination after exposure?].

In der Schweiz, wie in vielen anderen Ländern, ist die Durchimpfungsrate zu tief, um die Verbreitung von Masern zu stoppen. Es kommt immer wieder zu Masern-Ausbrüchen. Die Gabe von Immunglobulinen (Passivimpfung) ist für nicht-immune Personen gedacht, die Kontakt zu Masernvirus-Ausscheidern hatten. Sie wird in der Schweiz für Hochrisiko-Personen wie z.B. schwangere Frauen, immunsupprimierte Personen und Säuglinge <6 Monate ohne nachgewiesene Immunität empfohlen. Schätzungen über die Wirksamkeit der Passivimpfung variieren; es wurde keine minimalwirksame Dosierung festgelegt. Ziel dieses Reviews war, die Wirksamkeit und Sicherheit einer intramuskulären oder intravenösen Gabe von Immunglobulinen zur Masern-Prophylaxe nach Exposition jedoch vor Symptombeginn bei für Masern empfänglichen Personen zu untersuchen.

Quantifying the time for accurate EEG decoding of single value-based decisions.

BACKGROUND: Recent neuroimaging studies suggest that value-based decision-making may rely on mechanisms of evidence accumulation. However no studies have explicitly investigated the time when single decisions are taken based on such an accumulation process. NEW METHOD: Here, we outline a novel electroencephalography (EEG) decoding technique which is based on accumulating the probability of appearance of prototypical voltage topographies and can be used for predicting subjects' decisions. We use this approach for studying the time-course of single decisions, during a task where subjects were asked to compare reward vs. loss points for accepting or rejecting offers. RESULTS: We show that based on this new method, we can accurately decode decisions for the majority of the subjects. The typical time-period for accurate decoding was modulated by task difficulty on a trial-by-trial basis. Typical latencies of when decisions are made were detected at ∼500ms for 'easy' vs. ∼700ms for 'hard' decisions, well before subjects' response (∼340ms). Importantly, this decision time correlated with the drift rates of a diffusion model, evaluated independently at the behavioral level. COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHOD(S): We compare the performance of our algorithm with logistic regression and support vector machine and show that we obtain significant results for a higher number of subjects than with these two approaches. We also carry out analyses at the average event-related potential level, for comparison with previous studies on decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: We present a novel approach for studying the timing of value-based decision-making, by accumulating patterns of topographic EEG activity at single-trial level.

Value and Prices in Russian Economic Thought: A journey inside the Russian Synthesis, 1890-1920

This book explores Russian synthesis that occurred in Russian economic thought between 1890 and 1920. This includes all the attempts at synthesis between classical political economy and marginalism; the labour theory of value and marginal utility; and value and prices. The various ways in which Russian economists have approached these issues have generally been addressed in a piecemeal fashion in history of economic thought literature. This book returns to the primary sources in the Russian language, translating many into English for the first time, and offers the first comprehensive history of the Russian synthesis. The book first examines the origins of the Russian synthesis by determining the condition of reception in Russia of the various theories of value involved: the classical theories of value of Ricardo and Marx on one side; the marginalist theories of prices of Menger, Walras and Jevons on the other. It then reconstructs the three generations of the Russian synthesis: the first (Tugan-Baranovsky), the second, the mathematicians (Dmitriev, Bortkiewicz, Shaposhnikov, Slutsky, etc.) and the last (Yurovsky), with an emphasis on Tugan-Baranovsky's initial impetus. This volume is suitable for those studying economic theory and philosophy as well as those interested in the history of economic thought.

The Human Mesenchymal Stromal Cell-Derived Osteocyte Capacity to Modulate Dendritic Cell Functions Is Strictly Dependent on the Culture System.

In vitro differentiation of mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) into osteocytes (human differentiated osteogenic cells, hDOC) before implantation has been proposed to optimize bone regeneration. However, a deep characterization of the immunological properties of DOC, including their effect on dendritic cell (DC) function, is not available. DOC can be used either as cellular suspension (detached, Det-DOC) or as adherent cells implanted on scaffolds (adherent, Adh-DOC). By mimicking in vitro these two different routes of administration, we show that both Det-DOC and Adh-DOC can modulate DC functions. Specifically, the weak downregulation of CD80 and CD86 caused by Det-DOC on DC surface results in a weak modulation of DC functions, which indeed retain a high capacity to induce T-cell proliferation and to generate CD4(+)CD25(+)Foxp3(+) T cells. Moreover, Det-DOC enhance the DC capacity to differentiate CD4(+)CD161(+)CD196(+) Th17-cells by upregulating IL-6 secretion. Conversely, Adh-DOC strongly suppress DC functions by a profound downregulation of CD80 and CD86 on DC as well as by the inhibition of TGF-β production. In conclusion, we demonstrate that different types of DOC cell preparation may have a different impact on the modulation of the host immune system. This finding may have relevant implications for the design of cell-based tissue-engineering strategies.