The Lausanne cohort Lc65+: a population-based prospective study of the manifestations, determinants and outcomes of frailty

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a relatively new geriatric concept referring to an increased vulnerability to stressors. Various definitions have been proposed, as well as a range of multidimensional instruments for its measurement. More recently, a frailty phenotype that predicts a range of adverse outcomes has been described. Understanding frailty is a particular challenge both from a clinical and a public health perspective because it may be a reversible precursor of functional dependence. The Lausanne cohort Lc65+ is a longitudinal study specifically designed to investigate the manifestations of frailty from its first signs in the youngest old, identify medical and psychosocial determinants, and describe its evolution and related outcomes. METHODS/DESIGN: The Lc65+ cohort was launched in 2004 with the random selection of 3054 eligible individuals aged 65 to 70 (birth year 1934-1938) in the non-institutionalized population of Lausanne (Switzerland). The baseline data collection was completed among 1422 participants in 2004-2005 through questionnaires, examination and performance tests. It comprised a wide range of medical and psychosocial dimensions, including a life course history of adverse events. Outcomes measures comprise subjective health, limitations in activities of daily living, mobility impairments, development of medical conditions or chronic health problems, falls, institutionalization, health services utilization, and death. Two additional random samples of 65-70 years old subjects will be surveyed in 2009 (birth year 1939-1943) and in 2014 (birth year 1944-1948). DISCUSSION: The Lc65+ study focuses on the sequence "Determinants --> Components --> Consequences" of frailty. It currently provides information on health in the youngest old and will allow comparisons to be made between the profiles of aging individuals born before, during and at the end of the Second World War.

Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. DESIGN: Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 241 countries and territories. MEASUREMENTS: Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. FINDINGS: In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world.

Demographic and geographic vascular risk factor differences in European young adults with ischemic stroke: the 15 cities young stroke study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We compared among young patients with ischemic stroke the distribution of vascular risk factors among sex, age groups, and 3 distinct geographic regions in Europe. METHODS: We included patients with first-ever ischemic stroke aged 15 to 49 years from existing hospital- or population-based prospective or consecutive young stroke registries involving 15 cities in 12 countries. Geographic regions were defined as northern (Finland, Norway), central (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, The Netherlands, Switzerland), and southern (Greece, Italy, Turkey) Europe. Hierarchical regression models were used for comparisons. RESULTS: In the study cohort (n=3944), the 3 most frequent risk factors were current smoking (48.7%), dyslipidemia (45.8%), and hypertension (35.9%). Compared with central (n=1868; median age, 43 years) and northern (n=1330; median age, 44 years) European patients, southern Europeans (n=746; median age, 41 years) were younger. No sex difference emerged between the regions, male:female ratio being 0.7 in those aged <34 years and reaching 1.7 in those aged 45 to 49 years. After accounting for confounders, no risk-factor differences emerged at the region level. Compared with females, males were older and they more frequently had dyslipidemia or coronary heart disease, or were smokers, irrespective of region. In both sexes, prevalence of family history of stroke, dyslipidemia, smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, peripheral arterial disease, and atrial fibrillation positively correlated with age across all regions. CONCLUSIONS: Primary preventive strategies for ischemic stroke in young adults-having high rate of modifiable risk factors-should be targeted according to sex and age at continental level.

A Th17- and Th2-skewed Cytokine Profile in Cystic Fibrosis Lungs Represents a Potential Risk Factor for Pseudomonas aeruginosa Infection.

Rationale: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is characterized by progressive pulmonary inflammation that is infection-triggered. Pseudomonas aeruginosa represents a risk factor for deterioration of lung function and reduced life expectancy. Objectives: To assess T-cell cytokine/chemokine production in clinically stable children with CF and evaluate the association between T-cell subtypes and susceptibility for infection with P. aeruginosa. Methods: T-cell cytokine/chemokine profiles were measured in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) from children with CF (n = 57; 6.1 ± 5.9 yr) and non-CF control subjects (n = 18; 5.9 ± 4.3 yr). Memory responses to Aspergillus fumigatus and P. aeruginosa were monitored. High-resolution computed tomography-based Helbich score was assessed. In a prospective observational trial the association between BALF cytokine/chemokine profiles and subsequent infection with P. aeruginosa was studied. Measurements and Main Results: Th1- (INF-γ), Th2- (IL-5, IL-13), Th17- (IL-17A), and Th17-related cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6) were significantly up-regulated in airways of patients with CF. IL-17A, IL-13, and IL-5 were significantly higher in BALF of symptomatic as compared with clinically asymptomatic patients with CF. IL-17A and IL-5 correlated with the percentage of neutrophils in BALF (r = 0.41, P < 0.05 and r = 0.46, P < 0.05, respectively). Th17- (IL-17A, IL-6, IL-1β, IL-8) and Th2-associated cytokines and chemokines (IL-5, IL-13, TARC/CCL17), but not IFN-γ levels, significantly correlated with high-resolution computed tomography changes (Helbich score; P < 0.05). P. aeruginosa- and A. fumigatus-specific T cells from patients with CF displayed significantly higher IL-5 and IL-17A mRNA expression. IL-17A and TARC/CCL17 were significantly augmented in patients that developed P. aeruginosa infection within 24 months. Conclusions: We propose a role for Th17 and Th2 T cells in chronic inflammation in lungs of patients with CF. High concentrations of these cytokines/chemokines in CF airways precede infection with P. aeruginosa.

Association of education and receiving social transfers with allostatic load in the Swiss population-based CoLaus study.

BACKGROUND: Allostatic load reflects cumulative exposure to stressors throughout lifetime and has been associated with several adverse health outcomes. It is hypothesized that people with low socioeconomic status (SES) are exposed to higher chronic stress and have therefore greater levels of allostatic load. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of receiving social transfers and low education with allostatic load. METHODS: We included 3589 participants (1812 women) aged over 35years and under retirement age from the population-based CoLaus study (Lausanne, Switzerland, 2003-2006). We computed an allostatic load index aggregating cardiovascular, metabolic, dyslipidemic and inflammatory markers. A novel index additionally including markers of oxidative stress was also examined. RESULTS: Men with low vs. high SES were more likely to have higher levels of allostatic load (odds ratio (OR)=1.93/2.34 for social transfers/education, 95%CI from 1.45 to 4.17). The same patterns were observed among women. Associations persisted after controlling for health behaviors and marital status. CONCLUSIONS: Low education and receiving social transfers independently and cumulatively predict high allostatic load and dysregulation of several homeostatic systems in a Swiss population-based study. Participants with low SES are at higher risk of oxidative stress, which may justify its inclusion as a separate component of allostatic load.

Prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in the canton of Vaud (Switzerland) : a population-based cohort study

Abstract : Background and aims: Because of the changing epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases (IBD), we set out to characterize the population-based prevalence of Crohn's Disease (CD) and Ulcerative Colitis (UC) in a defined population of Switzerland. Methods: Adult IBD patients were identified by across-matched review of histological, hospital and gastroenterologist files throughout a geographical defined population (Canton of Vaud). Demographic factors statistically significantly associated with prevalence were evaluated using a stepwise Poisson regression analysis. Results were compared to IBD prevalence rates in other population-based studies and time trends were performed, based on a systematic literature review. Results: Age and sex-adjusted prevalence rates were 205.7 IBD (100.7 CD and 105.0 UC) cases per 10,5 inhabitants. Among 1016 IBD patients (519 CD and 497 UC), females outnumbered males in CD (p<0.001), but males were more represented in elderly UC patients (p=0.008). Thus, being a mate was statistically associated with UC (Relative Risk (RR) 1.25; p=0.013), whereas being a female was associated with CD (RR 1.27; p=0.007). Living in an urban zone was associated with both CD and UC (RR 1.49; p<0.001, 1.63; p<0.001, respectively). From 1960 to 2005, increases in UC and CD prevalences of 2.4% (95%CI, 2.1%-2.8%; p<0.001) and 3.6% (95%CI, 3.1%-4.1%; p<0.001) per annum were found in industrialised countries. Résumé de synthèse : 1. Introduction : Étant donné l'évolution constante des donnés épidémiologiques sur les maladies inflammatoires chroniques de l'intestin (MICI), nous avons recherché à caractériser la prévalence de la maladie de Crohn (MC) et de la colite ulcéreuse (CU) dans une population définie de la Suisse. 2. Méthodes : Nous avons identifiés, dans une population délimitée au Canton de Vaud, les patients adultes atteints de maladies inflammatoires de l'intestin en regroupant les données histologiques et médicales disponibles à l'hôpital et au cabinet du gastroentérologue. Pour nos analyses, nous avons utilisé la méthode de la régression de Poisson afin d'identifier les facteurs démographiques significativement liés avec la prévalence. Ensuite, nos résultats ont été comparés aux valeurs de prévalence des MICI issues d'autres études de population (revue systématique de la littérature) afin de dégager les tendances de leur évolution au cours du temps. 3. Résultats : La prévalence des MICI pondérée selon l'âge et le sexe était de 205.7 cas (100.7 MC et 105.0 CU) pour 10,5 habitants. Parmi les 1016 patients identifiés (519 MC et 497 CU), les femmes étaient plus représentées que les hommes dans la MC (P<0.0001), alors que la proportion d'hommes dépassait celle des femmes chez les patients âgés atteints de CU (p=0.008). Par conséquent, le fait d'être un homme était statistiquement associé à la CU (Risque relatif (RR) 1.25, p=0.013), et celui d'être une femme était associé à la MC (RR 1.27 ; p=0.007). L'étude a également montré qu'habiter en zone urbaine était significativement associé avec les deux types de MICI (RR (MC) 1.49; p<0.001, (CU) 1.63; p<0.001). Enfin, il a été mis en évidence dans les pays industrialisés, entre 1960 et 2005, une augmentation annuelle des taux de prévalences de 2.4% (95% IC, 2.1 %-2.8% ; p<0.001) pour la MC et de 3.6% (95% IC, 3.1 %-4.1 % ; p<0.001) pour la CU. 4. Conclusion : L'extrapolation de nos données au niveau Suisse fournit une estimation de 12 000 cas de MICI pour le pays soit 1 cas pour 500 habitants. Notre étude contribue également à démontrer une augmentation de la prévalence des MICI en Europe.

Change in physical activity after smoking cessation: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

AIMS: To estimate physical activity trajectories for people who quit smoking, and compare them to what would have been expected had smoking continued. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5115 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA) study, a population-based study of African American and European American people recruited at age 18-30 years in 1985/6 and followed over 25 years. MEASUREMENTS: Physical activity was self-reported during clinical examinations at baseline (1985/6) and at years 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20 and 25 (2010/11); smoking status was reported each year (at examinations or by telephone, and imputed where missing). We used mixed linear models to estimate trajectories of physical activity under varying smoking conditions, with adjustment for participant characteristics and secular trends. FINDINGS: We found significant interactions by race/sex (P = 0.02 for the interaction with cumulative years of smoking), hence we investigated the subgroups separately. Increasing years of smoking were associated with a decline in physical activity in black and white women and black men [e.g. coefficient for 10 years of smoking: -0.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.20 to -0.07, P < 0.001 for white women]. An increase in physical activity was associated with years since smoking cessation in white men (coefficient 0.06; 95% CI = 0 to 0.13, P = 0.05). The physical activity trajectory for people who quit diverged progressively towards higher physical activity from the expected trajectory had smoking continued. For example, physical activity was 34% higher (95% CI = 18 to 52%; P < 0.001) for white women 10 years after stopping compared with continuing smoking for those 10 years (P = 0.21 for race/sex differences). CONCLUSIONS: Smokers who quit have progressively higher levels of physical activity in the years after quitting compared with continuing smokers.

Eliminating heterophilic antibody interference for ferritin detection using Olympus F(ab')2 based reagent.

Interferences with the Olympus immunoturbidimetric assay for ferritin have been reported because the antibodies used in the immunoassay are derived from rabbits. Rabbits are familiar pets known to be a risk factor for developing heterophilic (or interfering) antibodies. This report shows how the current Olympus Ferritin assay has been improved to eliminate the interference from heterophilic antibodies.

Risk assessment of herbicide mixtures in a large European lake

Lake Geneva is one of the largest European lakes with a surface area of 580 km2. Its catchment area covers 7400 km2, of which approximately 20% is arable land. Monitoring campaigns have been carried out in 2004 and 2005 to determine the contamination of the lake by pesticides. The results highlight the widespread presence of herbicides in water, the measured concentrations for most substances remaining constant in 2004 and 2005. However, for some individual herbicides the concentrations increased drastically (e.g., the herbicide foramsulfuron). We assessed the environmental risk of the herbicides detected in the lake using water quality criteria recently determined for the Swiss environmental protection agency. Furthermore, we assessed the risk of herbicide mixtures, grouped based upon their mode of action. Generally, the risk estimated for all single substances is low, except for some sulfonylurea compounds. For these substances, the measured concentrations are higher than the predicted no-effect concentration. Impact on the flora of the lake can therefore not be excluded. When mixtures of pesticides with similar mode of action are taken into account, the risk remains lower than the mixture water quality criteria for all groups, but can reach as high as one third of this quality criteria. A further step would therefore be to assess the risk of the total pesticide mixture, including similar and dissimilar modes of action

Phenotypes influencing low physical activity in maintenance dialysis.

OBJECTIVE: The "Pas à Pas" initiative aimed at evaluating the weekly physical activity (PA) and its determinants in a large cohort of dialysis patients. SETTING: Physical inactivity is a risk factor for mortality in maintenance dialysis patients and is still poorly documented in this population. DESIGN: A prospective national epidemiological study was performed. SUBJECTS: A total of 1,163 patients on maintenance dialysis (hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis) were included. INTERVENTION AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: PA was recorded during seven consecutive days using a pedometer to measure daily step numbers. RESULTS: Median age was 63 years (Q1 51-Q3 75). Sixty-three percent were sedentary (<5000 steps/day) with a median of 3,688 steps/day (1,866-6,271)]. PA level was similar between hemodialysis patients and those on peritoneal dialysis (3,693 steps [1,896-6,307] vs. 3,320 [1,478-5,926], P = .33). In hemodialysis patients, PA was lower on dialysis days compared with nondialysis days (2,912 [1,439-5,232] vs. 4,054 [2,136-7,108], respectively, P < .01). PA gradually decreased with age, 57% being sedentary between 50 and 65 years and 83% of patients after 80 years. Beyond this age effect, we identified, for the first time, specific phenotypes of patients with lower PA, such as inflammation, cardiovascular disease, protein energy wasting, obesity, and diabetes. By contrast, previous kidney transplantation and a higher muscle mass were associated with higher PA. CONCLUSIONS: Dialysis patients present a very low level of PA with high sedentary. Acting on patient's modifiable phenotypes may help to increase PA to improve morbidity, mortality, and quality of life.

Managing hypertension in high-risk patients: lessons and promises from the STRATHE and ADVANCE trials.

Pharmacological treatment of hypertension represents a cost-effective way of preventing cardiovascular and renal complications. To benefit maximally from antihypertensive treatment, blood pressure should be brought to below 140/90 mmHg in every hypertensive patient, and even lower (< 130/80 mmHg) if diabetes or renal disease co-exists. Such targets cannot usually be reached using monotherapies. This is especially true in patients who present with a high cardiovascular risk. The co-administration of two agents acting by different mechanisms considerably increases the blood pressure control rate. Such combinations are not only efficacious, but are also well tolerated, and some fixed low-dose combinations even have a placebo-like tolerability. This is the case for the preparation containing the angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor perindopril (2 mg) and the diuretic indapamide (0.625 mg), a fixed low-dose combination that has been shown in controlled trials to be more effective than monotherapies in reducing albuminuria, regressing cardiac hypertrophy and improving the stiffness of large arteries. Using this combination to initiate antihypertensive therapy has been shown in a double-blind trial (Strategies of Treatment in Hypertension: Evaluation; STRATHE) to normalize blood pressure (< 140/90 mmHg) in significantly more patients (62%) than a sequential monotherapy approach based on atenolol, losartan and amlodipine (49%) and a stepped-care strategy based on valsartan and hydrochlorothiazide (47%), with no difference between the three arm groups in terms of tolerability. An ongoing randomized trial (Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation; ADVANCE) is a study with a 2 x 2 factorial design assessing the effects of the fixed-dose perindopril-indapamide combination and of the intensive gliclazide modified release-based glucose control regimen in type 2 diabetic patients, with or without hypertension. A total of 11 140 patients were randomly selected. Within the first 6 weeks of treatment (run-in phase), the perindopril-indapamide combination lowered blood pressure from 145/81 +/- 22/11 mmHg (mean +/- SD) to 137/78 +/- 20/10 mmHg. Fixed-dose combinations are becoming more and more popular for the management of hypertension, and are even proposed by hypertension guidelines as a first-line option to treat hypertensive patients.

Appropriateness of early management of newly diagnosed Crohn's disease in a European population-based cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The European Panel on the Appropriateness of Crohn's disease Therapy (EPACT) has developed appropriateness criteria. We have applied these criteria retrospectively to the population-based inception cohort of Crohn's disease (CD) patients of the European Collaborative Study Group on Inflammatory Bowel Disease (EC-IBD). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 426 diagnosed CD patients from 13 European centers were enrolled at the time of diagnosis (first flare, naive patients). We used the EPACT definitions to identify 247 patients with active luminal CD. We then assessed the appropriateness of the initial drug prescription according to the EPACT criteria. RESULTS: Among the cohort patients 163 suffered from mild-to-moderate CD and 84 from severe CD. Among the mild-to-moderate disease group, 96 patients (59%) received an appropriate treatment, whereas for 66 patients (40%) the treatment was uncertain and in one case (1%) inappropriate. Among the severe disease group, 86% were treated medically and 14% required surgery. 59 (70%) were appropriately treated, whereas for one patient (1%) the procedure was considered uncertain and for 24 patients (29%) inappropriate. CONCLUSION: Initial treatment was appropriate in the majority of cases for non-complicated luminal CD. Inappropriate or uncertain treatment was given in a significant minority of patients, with an increased potential risk of adverse events.

Evolutionary games on complex networks : the emergence and maintenance of cooperation

Abstract The object of game theory lies in the analysis of situations where different social actors have conflicting requirements and where their individual decisions will all influence the global outcome. In this framework, several games have been invented to capture the essence of various dilemmas encountered in many common important socio-economic situations. Even though these games often succeed in helping us understand human or animal behavior in interactive settings, some experiments have shown that people tend to cooperate with each other in situations for which classical game theory strongly recommends them to do the exact opposite. Several mechanisms have been invoked to try to explain the emergence of this unexpected cooperative attitude. Among them, repeated interaction, reputation, and belonging to a recognizable group have often been mentioned. However, the work of Nowak and May (1992) showed that the simple fact of arranging the players according to a spatial structure and only allowing them to interact with their immediate neighbors is sufficient to sustain a certain amount of cooperation even when the game is played anonymously and without repetition. Nowak and May's study and much of the following work was based on regular structures such as two-dimensional grids. Axelrod et al. (2002) showed that by randomizing the choice of neighbors, i.e. by actually giving up a strictly local geographical structure, cooperation can still emerge, provided that the interaction patterns remain stable in time. This is a first step towards a social network structure. However, following pioneering work by sociologists in the sixties such as that of Milgram (1967), in the last few years it has become apparent that many social and biological interaction networks, and even some technological networks, have particular, and partly unexpected, properties that set them apart from regular or random graphs. Among other things, they usually display broad degree distributions, and show small-world topological structure. Roughly speaking, a small-world graph is a network where any individual is relatively close, in terms of social ties, to any other individual, a property also found in random graphs but not in regular lattices. However, in contrast with random graphs, small-world networks also have a certain amount of local structure, as measured, for instance, by a quantity called the clustering coefficient. In the same vein, many real conflicting situations in economy and sociology are not well described neither by a fixed geographical position of the individuals in a regular lattice, nor by a random graph. Furthermore, it is a known fact that network structure can highly influence dynamical phenomena such as the way diseases spread across a population and ideas or information get transmitted. Therefore, in the last decade, research attention has naturally shifted from random and regular graphs towards better models of social interaction structures. The primary goal of this work is to discover whether or not the underlying graph structure of real social networks could give explanations as to why one finds higher levels of cooperation in populations of human beings or animals than what is prescribed by classical game theory. To meet this objective, I start by thoroughly studying a real scientific coauthorship network and showing how it differs from biological or technological networks using divers statistical measurements. Furthermore, I extract and describe its community structure taking into account the intensity of a collaboration. Finally, I investigate the temporal evolution of the network, from its inception to its state at the time of the study in 2006, suggesting also an effective view of it as opposed to a historical one. Thereafter, I combine evolutionary game theory with several network models along with the studied coauthorship network in order to highlight which specific network properties foster cooperation and shed some light on the various mechanisms responsible for the maintenance of this same cooperation. I point out the fact that, to resist defection, cooperators take advantage, whenever possible, of the degree-heterogeneity of social networks and their underlying community structure. Finally, I show that cooperation level and stability depend not only on the game played, but also on the evolutionary dynamic rules used and the individual payoff calculations. Synopsis Le but de la théorie des jeux réside dans l'analyse de situations dans lesquelles différents acteurs sociaux, avec des objectifs souvent conflictuels, doivent individuellement prendre des décisions qui influenceront toutes le résultat global. Dans ce cadre, plusieurs jeux ont été inventés afin de saisir l'essence de divers dilemmes rencontrés dans d'importantes situations socio-économiques. Bien que ces jeux nous permettent souvent de comprendre le comportement d'êtres humains ou d'animaux en interactions, des expériences ont montré que les individus ont parfois tendance à coopérer dans des situations pour lesquelles la théorie classique des jeux prescrit de faire le contraire. Plusieurs mécanismes ont été invoqués pour tenter d'expliquer l'émergence de ce comportement coopératif inattendu. Parmi ceux-ci, la répétition des interactions, la réputation ou encore l'appartenance à des groupes reconnaissables ont souvent été mentionnés. Toutefois, les travaux de Nowak et May (1992) ont montré que le simple fait de disposer les joueurs selon une structure spatiale en leur permettant d'interagir uniquement avec leurs voisins directs est suffisant pour maintenir un certain niveau de coopération même si le jeu est joué de manière anonyme et sans répétitions. L'étude de Nowak et May, ainsi qu'un nombre substantiel de travaux qui ont suivi, étaient basés sur des structures régulières telles que des grilles à deux dimensions. Axelrod et al. (2002) ont montré qu'en randomisant le choix des voisins, i.e. en abandonnant une localisation géographique stricte, la coopération peut malgré tout émerger, pour autant que les schémas d'interactions restent stables au cours du temps. Ceci est un premier pas en direction d'une structure de réseau social. Toutefois, suite aux travaux précurseurs de sociologues des années soixante, tels que ceux de Milgram (1967), il est devenu clair ces dernières années qu'une grande partie des réseaux d'interactions sociaux et biologiques, et même quelques réseaux technologiques, possèdent des propriétés particulières, et partiellement inattendues, qui les distinguent de graphes réguliers ou aléatoires. Entre autres, ils affichent en général une distribution du degré relativement large ainsi qu'une structure de "petit-monde". Grossièrement parlant, un graphe "petit-monde" est un réseau où tout individu se trouve relativement près de tout autre individu en termes de distance sociale, une propriété également présente dans les graphes aléatoires mais absente des grilles régulières. Par contre, les réseaux "petit-monde" ont, contrairement aux graphes aléatoires, une certaine structure de localité, mesurée par exemple par une quantité appelée le "coefficient de clustering". Dans le même esprit, plusieurs situations réelles de conflit en économie et sociologie ne sont pas bien décrites ni par des positions géographiquement fixes des individus en grilles régulières, ni par des graphes aléatoires. De plus, il est bien connu que la structure même d'un réseau peut passablement influencer des phénomènes dynamiques tels que la manière qu'a une maladie de se répandre à travers une population, ou encore la façon dont des idées ou une information s'y propagent. Ainsi, durant cette dernière décennie, l'attention de la recherche s'est tout naturellement déplacée des graphes aléatoires et réguliers vers de meilleurs modèles de structure d'interactions sociales. L'objectif principal de ce travail est de découvrir si la structure sous-jacente de graphe de vrais réseaux sociaux peut fournir des explications quant aux raisons pour lesquelles on trouve, chez certains groupes d'êtres humains ou d'animaux, des niveaux de coopération supérieurs à ce qui est prescrit par la théorie classique des jeux. Dans l'optique d'atteindre ce but, je commence par étudier un véritable réseau de collaborations scientifiques et, en utilisant diverses mesures statistiques, je mets en évidence la manière dont il diffère de réseaux biologiques ou technologiques. De plus, j'extrais et je décris sa structure de communautés en tenant compte de l'intensité d'une collaboration. Finalement, j'examine l'évolution temporelle du réseau depuis son origine jusqu'à son état en 2006, date à laquelle l'étude a été effectuée, en suggérant également une vue effective du réseau par opposition à une vue historique. Par la suite, je combine la théorie évolutionnaire des jeux avec des réseaux comprenant plusieurs modèles et le réseau de collaboration susmentionné, afin de déterminer les propriétés structurelles utiles à la promotion de la coopération et les mécanismes responsables du maintien de celle-ci. Je mets en évidence le fait que, pour ne pas succomber à la défection, les coopérateurs exploitent dans la mesure du possible l'hétérogénéité des réseaux sociaux en termes de degré ainsi que la structure de communautés sous-jacente de ces mêmes réseaux. Finalement, je montre que le niveau de coopération et sa stabilité dépendent non seulement du jeu joué, mais aussi des règles de la dynamique évolutionnaire utilisées et du calcul du bénéfice d'un individu.

BME-based uncertainty assessment of the Chernobyl fallout

The vast territories that have been radioactively contaminated during the 1986 Chernobyl accident provide a substantial data set of radioactive monitoring data, which can be used for the verification and testing of the different spatial estimation (prediction) methods involved in risk assessment studies. Using the Chernobyl data set for such a purpose is motivated by its heterogeneous spatial structure (the data are characterized by large-scale correlations, short-scale variability, spotty features, etc.). The present work is concerned with the application of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method to estimate the extent and the magnitude of the radioactive soil contamination by 137Cs due to the Chernobyl fallout. The powerful BME method allows rigorous incorporation of a wide variety of knowledge bases into the spatial estimation procedure leading to informative contamination maps. Exact measurements (?hard? data) are combined with secondary information on local uncertainties (treated as ?soft? data) to generate science-based uncertainty assessment of soil contamination estimates at unsampled locations. BME describes uncertainty in terms of the posterior probability distributions generated across space, whereas no assumption about the underlying distribution is made and non-linear estimators are automatically incorporated. Traditional estimation variances based on the assumption of an underlying Gaussian distribution (analogous, e.g., to the kriging variance) can be derived as a special case of the BME uncertainty analysis. The BME estimates obtained using hard and soft data are compared with the BME estimates obtained using only hard data. The comparison involves both the accuracy of the estimation maps using the exact data and the assessment of the associated uncertainty using repeated measurements. Furthermore, a comparison of the spatial estimation accuracy obtained by the two methods was carried out using a validation data set of hard data. Finally, a separate uncertainty analysis was conducted that evaluated the ability of the posterior probabilities to reproduce the distribution of the raw repeated measurements available in certain populated sites. The analysis provides an illustration of the improvement in mapping accuracy obtained by adding soft data to the existing hard data and, in general, demonstrates that the BME method performs well both in terms of estimation accuracy as well as in terms estimation error assessment, which are both useful features for the Chernobyl fallout study.

Prevalence of obesity and overweight and associated nutritional factors in a population-based Swiss sample: an opportunity to analyze the impact of three different European cultural roots.

PURPOSE: Obesity represents a growing public health concern worldwide. The latest data in Switzerland rely on self-reported body mass index (BMI), leading to underestimation of prevalence. We reassessed the prevalence of obesity and overweight in a sample of the Swiss population using measured BMI and waist circumference (WC) and explored the association with nutritional factors and living in different linguistic-cultural regions. METHODS: Data of 1,505 participants of a cross-sectional population-based survey in the three linguistic regions of Switzerland were analyzed. BMI and WC were measured, and a 24-h urine collection was performed to evaluate dietary sodium, potassium and protein intake. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight, obesity and abdominal obesity was 32.2, 14.2 and 33.6 %, respectively. Significant differences were observed in the regional distribution, with a lower prevalence in the Italian-speaking population. Low educational level, current smoking, scarce physical activity and being migrant were associated with an higher prevalence of obesity. Sodium, potassium and protein intake increased significantly across BMI categories. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and overweight affect almost half of the Swiss adolescents and adults, and the prevalence appears to increase. Using BMI and WC to define obesity led to different prevalences. Differences were furthermore observed across Swiss linguistic-cultural regions, despite a common socio-economic and governmental framework. We found a positive association between obesity and salt intake, with a potential deleterious synergistic effect on cardiovascular risk.