On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

The pneumonia severity index: a decade after the initial derivation and validation

The prognosis of community-acquired pneumonia ranges from rapid resolution of symptoms and full recovery of functional status to the development of severe medical complications and death. The pneumonia severity index is a rigorously studied prediction rule for prognosis that objectively stratifies patients into quintiles of risk for short-term mortality on the basis of 20 demographic and clinical variables routinely available at presentation. The pneumonia severity index was derived and validated with data on >50,000 patients with community-acquired pneumonia by use of well-accepted methodological standards and is the only pneumonia decision aid that has been empirically shown to safely increase the proportion of patients given treatment in the outpatient setting. Because of its prognostic accuracy, methodological rigor, and effectiveness and safety as a decision aid, the pneumonia severity index has become the reference standard for risk stratification of community-acquired pneumonia

Refining abacavir hypersensitivity diagnoses using a structured clinical assessment and genetic testing in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the value of a structured clinical assessment and genetic testing for refining the diagnosis of abacavir hypersensitivity reactions (ABC-HSRs) in a routine clinical setting. METHODS: We performed a diagnostic reassessment using a structured patient chart review in individuals who had stopped ABC because of suspected HSR. Two HIV physicians blinded to the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing results independently classified these individuals on a scale between 3 (ABC-HSR highly likely) and -3 (ABC-HSR highly unlikely). Scoring was based on symptoms, onset of symptoms and comedication use. Patients were classified as clinically likely (mean score > or =2), uncertain (mean score > or = -1 and < or = 1) and unlikely (mean score < or = -2). HLA typing was performed using sequence-based methods. RESULTS: From 131 reassessed individuals, 27 (21%) were classified as likely, 43 (33%) as unlikely and 61 (47%) as uncertain ABC-HSR. Of the 131 individuals with suspected ABC-HSR, 31% were HLA-B*5701-positive compared with 1% of 140 ABC-tolerant controls (P < 0.001). HLA-B*5701 carriage rate was higher in individuals with likely ABC-HSR compared with those with uncertain or unlikely ABC-HSR (78%, 30% and 5%, respectively, P < 0.001). Only six (7%) HLA-B*5701-negative individuals were classified as likely HSR after reassessment. CONCLUSIONS: HLA-B*5701 carriage is highly predictive of clinically diagnosed ABC-HSR. The high proportion of HLA-B*5701-negative individuals with minor symptoms among individuals with suspected HSR indicates overdiagnosis of ABC-HSR in the era preceding genetic screening. A structured clinical assessment and genetic testing could reduce the rate of inappropriate ABC discontinuation and identify individuals at high risk for ABC-HSR.

Upper and lower respiratory tract viral infections and acute graft rejection in lung transplant recipients.

Background: Lung transplant recipients are frequently exposed to respiratory viruses and are particularly at risk for severe complications. The aim of this study was to assess the association among the presence of a respiratory virus detected by molecular assays in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid, respiratory symptoms, and acute rejection in adult lung transplant recipients. Methods: Upper (nasopharyngeal swab) and lower (BAL) respiratory tract specimens from 77 lung transplant recipients enrolled in a cohort study and undergoing bronchoscopy with BAL and transbronchial biopsies were screened using 17 different polymerase chain reaction-based assays. Result: BAL fluid and biopsy specimens from 343 bronchoscopic procedures performed in 77 patients were analyzed. We also compared paired nasopharyngeal and BAL fluid specimens collected in a subgroup of 283 cases. The overall viral positivity rate was 29.3% in the upper respiratory tract specimens and 17.2% in the BAL samples (). We observed a significant association P < .001 between the presence of respiratory symptoms and positive viral detection in the lower respiratory tract (Pp. 012). Conversely, acute rejection was not associated with the presence of viral infection (odds ratio, 0.41; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.88). The recovery of lung function was significantly slower when acute rejection and viral infection were both present. Conclusions: A temporal relationship exists between acute respiratory symptoms and positive viral nucleic acid detection in BAL fluid from lung transplant recipients. We provide evidence suggesting that respiratory viruses are not associated with acute graft rejection during the acute phase of infection.

Quantitative antibiogram as a typing method for the prospective epidemiological surveillance and control of MRSA: comparison with molecular typing.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluation of the quantitative antibiogram as an epidemiological tool for the prospective typing of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), and comparison with ribotyping. METHODS: The method is based on the multivariate analysis of inhibition zone diameters of antibiotics in disk diffusion tests. Five antibiotics were used (erythromycin, clindamycin, cotrimoxazole, gentamicin, and ciprofloxacin). Ribotyping was performed using seven restriction enzymes (EcoRV, HindIII, KpnI, PstI, EcoRI, SfuI, and BamHI). SETTING: 1,000-bed tertiary university medical center. RESULTS: During a 1-year period, 31 patients were found to be infected or colonized with MRSA. Cluster analysis of antibiogram data showed nine distinct antibiotypes. Four antibiotypes were isolated from multiple patients (2, 4, 7, and 13, respectively). Five additional antibiotypes were isolated from the remaining five patients. When analyzed with respect to the epidemiological data, the method was found to be equivalent to ribotyping. Among 206 staff members who were screened, six were carriers of MRSA. Both typing methods identified concordant of MRSA types in staff members and in the patients under their care. CONCLUSIONS: The quantitative antibiogram was found to be equivalent to ribotyping as an epidemiological tool for typing of MRSA in our setting. Thus, this simple, rapid, and readily available method appears to be suitable for the prospective surveillance and control of MRSA for hospitals that do not have molecular typing facilities and in which MRSA isolates are not uniformly resistant or susceptible to the antibiotics tested.

Submicroscopic deletion in patients with Williams-Beuren syndrome influences expression levels of the nonhemizygous flanking genes.

Genomic imbalance is a common cause of phenotypic abnormalities. We measured the relative expression level of genes that map within the microdeletion that causes Williams-Beuren syndrome and within its flanking regions. We found, unexpectedly, that not only hemizygous genes but also normal-copy neighboring genes show decreased relative levels of expression. Our results suggest that not only the aneuploid genes but also the flanking genes that map several megabases away from a genomic rearrangement should be considered possible contributors to the phenotypic variation in genomic disorders.

BK virus infection in hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients: frequency, risk factors, and association with postengraftment hemorrhagic cystitis.

Blood samples from 132 consecutive hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients were obtained and tested weekly for BK virus DNA by use of quantitative real-time PCR. Forty-four patients (33%) developed BK viremia at a median of 41 days (range, 9-91 days) after transplantation. Patients with hemorrhagic cystitis that occurred after platelet engraftment had higher levels of viremia than did patients without hemorrhagic cystitis (median, 9.7x10(3) vs. 0 copies/mL; P=.008) and patients with hemorrhagic cystitis that occurred before platelet engraftment (median, 9.7x10(3) vs. 0 copies/mL; P=.0006). BK viremia also was strongly associated with postengraftment hemorrhagic cystitis in a time-dependent analysis (P=.004).

Life-history evolution and the polyphenic regulation of somatic maintenance and survival.

Here we discuss life-history evolution from the perspective of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, with a focus on polyphenisms for somatic maintenance and survival. Polyphenisms are adaptive discrete alternative phenotypes that develop in response to changes in the environment. We suggest that dauer larval diapause and its associated adult phenotypes in the nematode (Caenorhabditis elegans), reproductive dormancy in the fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) and other insects, and the worker castes of the honey bee (Apis mellifera) are examples of what may be viewed as the polyphenic regulation of somatic maintenance and survival. In these and other cases, the same genotype can--depending upon its environment--express either of two alternative sets of life-history phenotypes that differ markedly with respect to somatic maintenance, survival ability, and thus life span. This plastic modulation of somatic maintenance and survival has traditionally been underappreciated by researchers working on aging and life history. We review the current evidence for such adaptive life-history switches and their molecular regulation and suggest that they are caused by temporally and/or spatially varying, stressful environments that impose diversifying selection, thereby favoring the evolution of plasticity of somatic maintenance and survival under strong regulatory control. By considering somatic maintenance and survivorship from the perspective of adaptive life-history switches, we may gain novel insights into the mechanisms and evolution of aging.

Neural networks as mechanisms to regulate division of labor.

Abstract In social insects, workers perform a multitude of tasks, such as foraging, nest construction, and brood rearing, without central control of how work is allocated among individuals. It has been suggested that workers choose a task by responding to stimuli gathered from the environment. Response-threshold models assume that individuals in a colony vary in the stimulus intensity (response threshold) at which they begin to perform the corresponding task. Here we highlight the limitations of these models with respect to colony performance in task allocation. First, we show with analysis and quantitative simulations that the deterministic response-threshold model constrains the workers' behavioral flexibility under some stimulus conditions. Next, we show that the probabilistic response-threshold model fails to explain precise colony responses to varying stimuli. Both of these limitations would be detrimental to colony performance when dynamic and precise task allocation is needed. To address these problems, we propose extensions of the response-threshold model by adding variables that weigh stimuli. We test the extended response-threshold model in a foraging scenario and show in simulations that it results in an efficient task allocation. Finally, we show that response-threshold models can be formulated as artificial neural networks, which consequently provide a comprehensive framework for modeling task allocation in social insects.

The tumor antigens RHAMM and G250/CAIX are expressed in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas and elicit specific CD8+ T cell responses.

Despite advances in surgery, radio- and chemotherapy, therapeutic approaches for patients with head and neck squamous carcinoma (HNSCC) need to be improved. Immunotherapies eliciting tumor specific immune responses might constitute novel treatment options. We therefore investigated the expression and immunogenicity of two tumor-associated antigens (TAA) the receptor for hyaluronic acid mediated motility (RHAMM) and carboanhydrase IX (G250/CAIX) in HNSCC patients. Twenty-two HNSCC samples were examined for the expression of RHAMM and G250 by Western blotting and immunohistochemistry, 14/22 samples were tested for HLA-A2 expression by flow cytometry. For 8/22 samples single tumor-cell suspensions were generated, and mixed lymphocyte peptide cultures (MLPC) were performed to evaluate the frequencies of cytotoxic T cells specifically recognizing RHAMM and G250 using Tetramer staining/multi-color flow cytometry and enzyme linked immunosorbent spot (ELISPOT) assays. RHAMM and G250 were expressed in 73 and 80% of the HNSCC samples at the protein level. A co-expression of both TAAs could be detected in 60% of the patients. In 4/8 HLA-A2+ patients, 0.06-0.13% of CD8+ effector T cells recognized Tetramers for RHAMM or G250 and secreted IFNgamma and granzyme B in ELISPOT assays. RHAMM and G250 are expressed at high frequency and high protein level in HNSCCs and are recognized by cytotoxic CD8+ effector T cells. Therefore both TAAs constitute interesting targets for T cell based immunotherapies for HNSCC.