Monitoring de la problématique du cannabis en Suisse: étude sentinelle: panels 2008 = Monitoring der Cannabisproblematik in der Schweiz: Sentinella-Studie: Panels 2008

A l'heure actuelle, le monitoring de la problématique du cannabis en Suisse constitue un ensemble de travaux qui permettent le suivi de la situation au niveau national et qui sont mis en oeuvre par un consortium d'instituts. Ce monitoring comprend l'étude présentée dans ce rapport, l'étude sentinelle. Elle s'intéresse à l'évolution de la situation en matière de cannabis ainsi qu'à la gestion de cette situation au niveau local. Ainsi, les observations relevées par des professionnels de terrain dans différents domaines (santé/social, école/formation professionnelle, police/justice) et dans quatre cantons suisses (St Gall, Tessin, Vaud, Zurich), dits "sentinelle", sont récoltées et analysées annuellement.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Does Interviewer-Respondent Socio-Demographic Matching Increase Cooperation in Centralized CATI Household Panels?

Overall it seems that age and gender interviewer characteristics are relevant in achieving higher cooperation rates by telephone panel members. This appears to be the case especially for older male interviewers, who perform the best on gaining cooperation across different types of respondents. This holds if important interviewer covariates like experience are controlled for. There is no evidence that special sex age or sex matches yield a higher cooperation. It may be that not only the perceived authority of the institution that sponsors the survey plays a role when it comes to cooperation (Groves et al., 1992) but also of the interviewer who asks for this cooperation. Presumably older men have more authority to convince sample members to participate. A simple recommendation is to use as many older male interviewers as possible for the recruitment phase. It is likely that this strategy would also be successful in other western cultures than Switzerland.

Subjective health assessments and active labor market participation of older men: evidence from a semiparametric binary choice model with nonadditive correlated individual-specific effects

We use panel data from the U. S. Health and Retirement Study, 1992-2002, to estimate the effect of self-assessed health limitations on the active labor market participation of older men. Self-assessments of health are likely to be endogenous to labor supply due to justification bias and individual-specific heterogeneity in subjective evaluations. We address both concerns. We propose a semiparametric binary choice procedure that incorporates nonadditive correlated individual-specific effects. Our estimation strategy identifies and estimates the average partial effects of health and functioning on labor market participation. The results indicate that poor health plays a major role in labor market exit decisions.

A mixed approach for proving non-inferiority in clinical trials with binary endpoints

When a new treatment is compared to an established one in a randomized clinical trial, it is standard practice to statistically test for non-inferiority rather than for superiority. When the endpoint is binary, one usually compares two treatments using either an odds-ratio or a difference of proportions. In this paper, we propose a mixed approach which uses both concepts. One first defines the non-inferiority margin using an odds-ratio and one ultimately proves non-inferiority statistically using a difference of proportions. The mixed approach is shown to be more powerful than the conventional odds-ratio approach when the efficacy of the established treatment is known (with good precision) and high (e.g. with more than 56% of success). The gain of power achieved may lead in turn to a substantial reduction in the sample size needed to prove non-inferiority. The mixed approach can be generalized to ordinal endpoints.

Monitoring de la problématique du cannabis en Suisse : étude sentinelle : panels 2008

A l'heure actuelle, le monitoring de la problématique du cannabis en Suisse constitue un ensemble de travaux qui permettent le suivi de la situation au niveau national et qui sont mis en oeuvre par un consortium d'instituts. Ce monitoring comprend l'étude présentée dans ce rapport, l'étude sentinelle. Elle s'intéresse à l'évolution de la situation en matière de cannabis ainsi qu'à la gestion de cette situation au niveau local. Ainsi, les observations relevées par des professionnels de terrain dans différents domaines (santé/social, école/formation professionnelle, police/justice) et dans quatre cantons suisses (St Gall, Tessin, Vaud, Zurich), dits "sentinelle", sont récoltées et analysées annuellement. [P. 5]

Persuasion, binary choice, and the costs of dishonesty

We study the strategic interaction between a decision maker who needs to take a binary decision but is uncertain about relevant facts and an informed expert who can send a message to the decision maker but has a preference over the decision.We show that the probability that the expert can persuade the decision maker to take the expert's preferred decision is a hump-shaped function of his costs of sending dishonest messages.

A comparison of three methods of Mendelian randomization when the genetic instrument, the risk factor and the outcome are all binary.

The method of instrumental variable (referred to as Mendelian randomization when the instrument is a genetic variant) has been initially developed to infer on a causal effect of a risk factor on some outcome of interest in a linear model. Adapting this method to nonlinear models, however, is known to be problematic. In this paper, we consider the simple case when the genetic instrument, the risk factor, and the outcome are all binary. We compare via simulations the usual two-stages estimate of a causal odds-ratio and its adjusted version with a recently proposed estimate in the context of a clinical trial with noncompliance. In contrast to the former two, we confirm that the latter is (under some conditions) a valid estimate of a causal odds-ratio defined in the subpopulation of compliers, and we propose its use in the context of Mendelian randomization. By analogy with a clinical trial with noncompliance, compliers are those individuals for whom the presence/absence of the risk factor X is determined by the presence/absence of the genetic variant Z (i.e., for whom we would observe X = Z whatever the alleles randomly received at conception). We also recall and illustrate the huge variability of instrumental variable estimates when the instrument is weak (i.e., with a low percentage of compliers, as is typically the case with genetic instruments for which this proportion is frequently smaller than 10%) where the inter-quartile range of our simulated estimates was up to 18 times higher compared to a conventional (e.g., intention-to-treat) approach. We thus conclude that the need to find stronger instruments is probably as important as the need to develop a methodology allowing to consistently estimate a causal odds-ratio.

Results and harmonization guidelines from two large-scale international Elispot proficiency panels conducted by the Cancer Vaccine Consortium (CVC/SVI).

The Cancer Vaccine Consortium of the Sabin Vaccine Institute (CVC/SVI) is conducting an ongoing large-scale immune monitoring harmonization program through its members and affiliated associations. This effort was brought to life as an external validation program by conducting an international Elispot proficiency panel with 36 laboratories in 2005, and was followed by a second panel with 29 participating laboratories in 2006 allowing for application of learnings from the first panel. Critical protocol choices, as well as standardization and validation practices among laboratories were assessed through detailed surveys. Although panel participants had to follow general guidelines in order to allow comparison of results, each laboratory was able to use its own protocols, materials and reagents. The second panel recorded an overall significantly improved performance, as measured by the ability to detect all predefined responses correctly. Protocol choices and laboratory practices, which can have a dramatic effect on the overall assay outcome, were identified and lead to the following recommendations: (A) Establish a laboratory SOP for Elispot testing procedures including (A1) a counting method for apoptotic cells for determining adequate cell dilution for plating, and (A2) overnight rest of cells prior to plating and incubation, (B) Use only pre-tested serum optimized for low background: high signal ratio, (C) Establish a laboratory SOP for plate reading including (C1) human auditing during the reading process and (C2) adequate adjustments for technical artifacts, and (D) Only allow trained personnel, which is certified per laboratory SOPs to conduct assays. Recommendations described under (A) were found to make a statistically significant difference in assay performance, while the remaining recommendations are based on practical experiences confirmed by the panel results, which could not be statistically tested. These results provide initial harmonization guidelines to optimize Elispot assay performance to the immunotherapy community. Further optimization is in process with ongoing panels.

Harmonization guidelines for HLA-peptide multimer assays derived from results of a large scale international proficiency panel of the Cancer Vaccine Consortium.

PURPOSE: The Cancer Vaccine Consortium of the Cancer Research Institute (CVC-CRI) conducted a multicenter HLA-peptide multimer proficiency panel (MPP) with a group of 27 laboratories to assess the performance of the assay. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Participants used commercially available HLA-peptide multimers and a well characterized common source of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). The frequency of CD8+ T cells specific for two HLA-A2-restricted model antigens was measured by flow cytometry. The panel design allowed for participants to use their preferred staining reagents and locally established protocols for both cell labeling, data acquisition and analysis. RESULTS: We observed significant differences in both the performance characteristics of the assay and the reported frequencies of specific T cells across laboratories. These results emphasize the need to identify the critical variables important for the observed variability to allow for harmonization of the technique across institutions. CONCLUSIONS: Three key recommendations emerged that would likely reduce assay variability and thus move toward harmonizing of this assay. (1) Use of more than two colors for the staining (2) collect at least 100,000 CD8 T cells, and (3) use of a background control sample to appropriately set the analytical gates. We also provide more insight into the limitations of the assay and identified additional protocol steps that potentially impact the quality of data generated and therefore should serve as primary targets for systematic analysis in future panels. Finally, we propose initial guidelines for harmonizing assay performance which include the introduction of standard operating protocols to allow for adequate training of technical staff and auditing of test analysis procedures.

Disentangling the effects of key innovations on the diversification of Bromelioideae (bromeliaceae).

The evolution of key innovations, novel traits that promote diversification, is often seen as major driver for the unequal distribution of species richness within the tree of life. In this study, we aim to determine the factors underlying the extraordinary radiation of the subfamily Bromelioideae, one of the most diverse clades among the neotropical plant family Bromeliaceae. Based on an extended molecular phylogenetic data set, we examine the effect of two putative key innovations, that is, the Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and the water-impounding tank, on speciation and extinction rates. To this aim, we develop a novel Bayesian implementation of the phylogenetic comparative method, binary state speciation and extinction, which enables hypotheses testing by Bayes factors and accommodates the uncertainty on model selection by Bayesian model averaging. Both CAM and tank habit were found to correlate with increased net diversification, thus fulfilling the criteria for key innovations. Our analyses further revealed that CAM photosynthesis is correlated with a twofold increase in speciation rate, whereas the evolution of the tank had primarily an effect on extinction rates that were found five times lower in tank-forming lineages compared to tank-less clades. These differences are discussed in the light of biogeography, ecology, and past climate change.

EEG-based functional brain networks: does the network size matter?

Functional connectivity in human brain can be represented as a network using electroencephalography (EEG) signals. These networks--whose nodes can vary from tens to hundreds--are characterized by neurobiologically meaningful graph theory metrics. This study investigates the degree to which various graph metrics depend upon the network size. To this end, EEGs from 32 normal subjects were recorded and functional networks of three different sizes were extracted. A state-space based method was used to calculate cross-correlation matrices between different brain regions. These correlation matrices were used to construct binary adjacency connectomes, which were assessed with regards to a number of graph metrics such as clustering coefficient, modularity, efficiency, economic efficiency, and assortativity. We showed that the estimates of these metrics significantly differ depending on the network size. Larger networks had higher efficiency, higher assortativity and lower modularity compared to those with smaller size and the same density. These findings indicate that the network size should be considered in any comparison of networks across studies.