How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange rate regimes

This paper analyzes the linkages between the credibility of a target zone regime, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the width of the band where the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate. These three concepts should be related since the band width induces a trade-off between credibility and volatility. Narrower bands should give less scope for the exchange rate to fluctuate but may make agents perceive a larger probability of realignment which by itself should increase the volatility of the exchange rate. We build a model where this trade-off is made explicit. The model is used to understand the reduction in volatility experienced by most EMS countries after their target zones were widened on August 1993. As a natural extension, the model also rationalizes the existence of non-official, implicit target zones (or fear of floating), suggested by some authors.

Cross-border banking in Europe: An empirical investigation

This paper investigates bilateral trade in banking services within the European Union. The attention has been addressed to two main issues. First, to test the bank's motivations for setting up the different forms of overseas offices, and secondly, to assess the importance of barriers to entry across national European banking systems. Empirical results confirm the existence of different motivations for establishing representative offices, branches and subsidiaries in foreign locations. In addition, evidence has been achieved about the importance of non-regulatory barriers that could make difficult the existence of a single European market for banking services.

How do we make the (right) diagnosis of acute appendicitis?

Objectives: To evaluate the correct diagnosis in unselected patients presenting withsuspected acute appendicitis in the Emergency Department in Hospital Trueta. To evaluate the different scenarios to achieve the correct diagnosis in patients with suspected acute appendicitis estimated by clinical evaluation without imaging, US only, CT only or US in all patients followed by CT after a non-diagnostic US.Design: Cross-sectional study conducted between April 2014 and March 2015.Settings: Medium-sized teaching hospital in Girona.Participants: Consecutive adult patients, 14 years old or older, with clinically suspectedacute appendicitis evaluated at the emergency department.Main outcome: Correct diagnosis of acute appendicitis

Impact of antibiotic resistance on chemotherapy for pneumococcal infections

Over the past three decades, penicillin-resistant pneumococci have emerged worldwide. In addition, penicillin-resistant strains have also decreased susceptibility to other β-lactams (including cephalosporins) and these strains are often resistant to other antibiotic groups, making the treatment options much more difficult. Nevertheless, the present in vitro definitions of resistance to penicillin and cephalosporins in pneumococci could not be appropriated for all types of pneumococcal infections. Thus, current levels of resistance to penicillin and cephalosporin seem to have little, if any, clinical relevance in nonmeningeal infections (e.g., pneumonia or bacteremia). On the contrary, numerous clinical failures have been reported in patients with pneumococcal meningitis caused by strains with MICs ≥ 0.12 μg/ml, and penicillin should never be used in pneumococcal meningitis except when the strain is known to be fully susceptible to this drug. Today, therapy for pneumococcal meningitis should mainly be selected on the basis of susceptibility to cephalosporins, and most patients may currently be treated with high-dose cefotaxime (±) vancomycin, depending on the levels of resistance in the patient's geographic area. In this review, we present a practical approach, based on current levels of antibiotic resistance, for treating the most prevalent pneumococcal infections. However, it should be emphasized that the most appropriate antibiotic therapy for infections caused by resistant pneumococci remains controversial, and comparative, randomized studies are urgently needed to clarify the best antibiotic therapy for these infections

Selección de péptidos sintéticos del Virus de la Hepatitis G (GBV-C/HGV) inhibidores del Péptido de Fusión HIV-I

El GB virus C (GBV-C) o virus de l'hepatitis G (HGV) es un virus format per una única cadena de RNA que pertany a la familia Flaviviridae. En els últims anys, s'han publicat nombrosos treballs en els quals s'associa la coinfecció del GBV-C i del virus de la immunodeficiència humana (VIH) amb una menor progressió de l'esmentada malaltia així com amb una major supervivència dels pacients una vegada que la SIDA s'ha desenvolupat. El mecanisme pel qual el virus GBV-C/HGV exerceix un “efecte protector” en els pacients amb VIH encara no està descrit. L’estudi de la interacció entre els virus GBVC/HGV i VIH podria donar lloc al desenvolupament de nous agents terapèutics per al tractament de la SIDA.Treballs recents mostren com la capacitat inhibitòria del virus del GBV-C/HGV és deguda a la seva glicoproteina estructural E2. S’ha vist que aquesta proteina seria capaç d’inhibir la primera fase de replicació de VIH, així com la unió i la fusió amb les membranes cel•lulars. Sobre la base d’aquests estudis, l’objectiu d’aquest treball ha estat seleccionar inhibidors del pèptid de fusió del VIH utilitzant pèptids sintètics de la proteina E2 del GBV-C/HGV. El treball realitzat ha consistit en estudiar, utilitzant assajos biofísics de leakage i de lipid mixing, la capacitat dels pèptids de la proteina estructural del virus del GBV-C/HGV per inhibir la interacció i el procés de desestabilització de membranes induïdes pel pèptid de fusió de la glicoproteina de l’embolcall, GP41, del VIH. Aquests assajos, com es descriu en treballs anteriors, han resultat útils per a la selecció i la identificació de compostos amb activitat específica anti-GP41. Es pot afirmar que efectivament els pèptids seleccionats de la proteina E2 del virus del GBV-C/HGV inhibeixen l’activitat del pèptid de fusió del VIH probablement com a consequència d’un canvi conformacional en aquest darrer.

Recursos de información en una biblioteca virtual : la Biblioteca Virtual de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya

La Biblioteca Virtual de la UOC té com a principal objectiu ésser al servei d'una comunitat acadèmica formada per estudiants, personal docent i personal de gestió i administració que desenvolupen la seva activitat totalment en línia, usant per a aquesta finalitat una intranet o Campus Virtual. Sobre la base d'aquest objectiu, es dissenyen i ofereixen tota una sèrie de serveis, recursos i eines que permetin cobrir les necessitats informatives que se'ls plantegin als membres d'aquesta comunitat virtual en el desenvolupament de les seves activitats - ja siguin aquestes laborals, docents o acadèmiques - i oferint diferents vies d'accés per tal d'aconseguir una major personalització.

Late bloomer or language impaired? Screening the speech of a Spanish-English bilingual toddler for early signs of language impairment

This case study presents corpus data gathered from a Spanish-English bilingual child with expressive language delay. Longitudinal data on the child’s linguistic development was collected from the onset of productive speech at age 1;1 until age 4 over the course of 28 video-taped sessions with the child’s principal caregivers. A literature review focused on the relationship between language delay and persisting disorders—including a discussion of the frequent difficulty in distinguishing between the two at early stages of bilingual development—is followed by an analysis of the child’s productive development in 2 distinct phases. An attempt is made to assess the child’s speech at age 4 for preliminary signs of SLI and to consider techniques for identifying ‘at risk’ bilingual children (that is, those with productive language delay, poor oral fluency, and family history of language problems) based on samples of recorded and transcribed speech.

To select or to weigh: a comparative study of linear combination schemes for superparent-one-dependence estimators

We conduct a large-scale comparative study on linearly combining superparent-one-dependence estimators (SPODEs), a popular family of seminaive Bayesian classifiers. Altogether, 16 model selection and weighing schemes, 58 benchmark data sets, and various statistical tests are employed. This paper's main contributions are threefold. First, it formally presents each scheme's definition, rationale, and time complexity and hence can serve as a comprehensive reference for researchers interested in ensemble learning. Second, it offers bias-variance analysis for each scheme's classification error performance. Third, it identifies effective schemes that meet various needs in practice. This leads to accurate and fast classification algorithms which have an immediate and significant impact on real-world applications. Another important feature of our study is using a variety of statistical tests to evaluate multiple learning methods across multiple data sets.

Necessitats dels familiars de pacients amb càncer

El càncer produeix un impacte a la família en totes les seves esferes, la família ha de modificar les seves rutines familiars i adoptar nous rols. En el moment del diagnòstic del càncer, a cada família hi ha una persona que assumeix el rol de cuidador principal. Aquest cuidador és el que s’ocupa del malalt a casa i fa d’enllaç entre la família i l’equip sanitari. En front del càncer, la família i el cuidador tenen un conjunt de dubtes, d’inquietuds, de preocupacions que s’acaben traduint en necessitats. L’equip sanitari i Infermeria especialment ha d’atendre aquestes necessitats i ajudar a satisfer-les. Objectiu: L’objectiu principal d’aquest treball es descriure quines són les necessitats que presenten la família i el cuidador dels pacients oncològics. Metodologia: Es va dur a terme una revisió de la literatura entre setembre del 2013 i maig del 2014. Es va utilitzar la base de dades Pubmed, a més de pàgines web i llibres. Es van obtenir un total de 75 fonts, 56 en angles, 18 en espanyol i 1 en català. Resultats: La bibliografia agrupa les necessitats de les famílies i els cuidadors en 7 grans categories: físiques, psicològiques i emocionals, socials, de informació i formació, econòmiques, de transport i espirituals. Pel que fa a necessitats més especifiques, algunes de les més freqüents són tenir informació sobre el pronòstic del malalt, assegurar-se de que l’equip sanitari està donant la millor atenció possible al malalt. Sembla haver-hi una relació entre el grau de no satisfacció de les necessitats i el grau d’ansietat i depressió en la família i el cuidador. Els autors consultats no coincideixen en afirmar si la majoria del les necessitats es veuen satisfetes o no. Conclusions: La família i el cuidador d’un pacient amb càncer també han de rebre atenció per part dels professionals. En moltes ocasions la família treu importància a les seves necessitats per tal de que l’equip sanitari es centri només en el malalt. Infermeria té un paper fonamental en detectar les necessitats dels familiars i cuidadors i en ajudar a satisfer-les, de manera que la família estigui en les millors condicions possibles per cuidar del malalt. Paraules clau: Càncer, família, cuidador, necessitats familiars, rol d’Infermeria

Fraseologia espanyola d'origen llatí i motiu grecorromà

Proyecto realizado en la Universidad de Lleida entre 2003 i 2006. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es vislumbrar la génesis y la evolución de unidades fraseológicas que proceden del latín y de las que utilizan algún motivo grecorromano para su creación. Una de las razones por las que se ha elegido este tipo de fraseologismos es que se remontan a una época bastante bien conocida de la historia de nuestro pueblo, circunstancia que permitirá desarrollar el segundo objetivo, a saber: conocer qué aspectos de la sociedad y la cultura clásicas han sido seleccionados por los antiguos y por los hispanohablantes para la formación de una expresión figurada, así como sacar a la luz las posibles causas que han motivado esta elección. La inclusión de estos dos grupos de unidades –el de las que proceden directamente del latín y el de las que se han basado, ya en plena época romance, en un motivo de la cultura clásica– nos posibilita la consecución de un tercer objetivo: saber si en ambos pueblos (grecorromano e hispano) han llamado la atención los mismos aspectos de la realidad (y de idéntico modo) para la cristalización de unidades fraseológicas. Las hipótesis de partida eran que, en español, debiera darse tanto la perduración o recreación de unidades latinas y griegas, como la creación de nuevas unidades referidas a aspectos culturales de Grecia y Roma; y que el número de estas unidades debiera ser elevado, puesto que el latín es la lengua de la que deriva el español y la cultura grecorromana es la base de la nuestra. Para el establecimiento del corpus definitivo se han elaborado dos corpora de fraseologismos y refranes (sobre el español y el latín), que han sido debidamente comparados hasta llegar establecer unas 20.000 unidades de origen latino y unas 3.000 de origen clásico .

Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

A never-ending debate: Demand versus supply water policies. A CGE analysis for Catalonia

Water scarcity is a long-standing problem in Catalonia, as there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of water through the territory. There has consequently been a debate for many years about whether the solution to water scarcity must be considered in terms of efficiency or equity, the role that the public sector must play and the role that market-based instruments should play in water management. The aim of this paper is to use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the advantages and disadvantages associated with different policy instruments, from both a supply and a demand viewpoint, which can be applied to water management in Catalonia. We also introduce an ecological sector in our CGE model, allowing us to analyze the environmental impact of the alternative policies simulated. The calibration of the exogenous variables of the CGE model is performed by using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Catalan economy with 2001 data. The results suggest that taking into account the principle of sustainability of the resource, the policy debate between supply and demand in water policies is obsolete, and a new combination of policies is required to respect the different values associated with water. Keywords: Water Policies; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Economic Effects; Environmental Effects.

The Role of Information in Contemporary Migration. More Sources but Less Informed

La migració internacional contemporània és integrada en un procés d'interconnexió global definit per les revolucions del transport i de les tecnologies de la informació i la comunicació. Una de les conseqüències d'aquesta interconnexió global és que les persones migrants tenen més capacitat per a processar informació tant abans com després de marxar. Aquests canvis podrien tenir implicacions inesperades per a la migració contemporània pel que fa a la capacitat de les persones migrants per a prendre decisions més informades, la reducció de la incertesa en contextos migratoris, el desdibuixament del concepte de distància o la decisió d'emigrar cap a llocs més llunyans. Aquesta recerca és important, ja que la manca de coneixement sobre aquesta qüestió podria contribuir a fer augmentar la distància entre els objectius de les polítiques de migració i els seus resultats. El paper que tenen els agents de la informació en els contextos migratoris també podria canviar. En aquest escenari, perquè les polítiques de migració siguin més efectives, s'haurà de tenir en compte la major capacitat de la població migrant de processar la informació i les fonts d'informació en què es confia. Aquest article demostra que l'equació més informació equival a més ben informat no es compleix sempre. Fins i tot en l'era de la informació, les fonts no fiables, les expectatives falses, la sobreinformació i els rumors encara són presents en els contextos migratoris. Tanmateix, defensem l'argument que aquests efectes no volguts es podrien reduir complint quatre requisits de la informació fiable: que sigui exhaustiva, que sigui rellevant, que s'hi confiï i que sigui actualitzada.

Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

Prevalencia y características del abuso sexual infantil en estudiantes universitarios españoles

Objective: The purpose of this paper was to compare the prevalence rates of child sexual abuse reported by [Finkelhor, D. (1994). The international epidemiology of child sexual abuse. Child Abuse & Neglect, 18 (5), 409417] with those found in recent publications in order to confirm the widespread prevalence of child sexual abuse. Methods: Relevant articles about prevalence of child sexual abuse were identified through searches of computerized databases and a handsearch of Child Abuse & Neglect and the Journal of Child Sexual Abuse. Results: Thirty-eight independent articles were identified, corresponding to 39 prevalence studies; these articles report the prevalence of childhood sexual abuse in 21 different countries, ranging from 0 to 53% for women and 0 to 60% for men. Conclusions: Comparison of the present study with that of [Finkelhor, D. (1994). The international epidemiology of child sexual abuse. Child Abuse & Neglect, 18 (5), 409417] shows a similarity between prevalence distributions; there appears to be a general pattern that remains more or less constant over the years, especially in women. Practice implications: Twelve years after the first revision study about the international prevalence of child sexual abuse, there is still a need for new data about this topic. The present study shows child sexual abuse is still a widespread problem in the society. In this research, carried out on 38 independent studies, there is new data for 21 countries over the world, being especially relevant the results obtained from other countries different from those pertaining toNorth America or Europe. It is important to point out the high prevalence found in most of the countries, so this information could be a new warning to make society and governments aware of this problem and undertake actions to prevent sexual abuse in childhood. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.