Life-Cycle Effects on Household Expenditures: A Latent-Variable Approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life- cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

Lyfe-cycle effects on household expenditures: A latent-variable approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life-cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

Variable-stiffness composite panels: Defect tolerance under in-plane tensile loading

Automated Fiber Placement is being extensively used in the production of major composite components for the aircraft industry. This technology enables the production of tow-steered panels, which have been proven to greatly improve the structural efficiency of composites by means of in-plane stiffness variation and load redistribution. However, traditional straight-fiber architectures are still preferred. One of the reasons behind this is related to the uncertainties, as a result of process-induced defects, in the mechanical performance of the laminates. This experimental work investigates the effect of the fiber angle discontinuities between different tow courses in a ply on the un-notched and open-hole tensile strength of the laminate. The influence of several manufacturing parameters are studied in detail. The results reveal that 'ply staggering' and '0% gap coverage' is an effective combination in reducing the influence of defects in these laminates

Simulation of Delamination Propagation in Composites Under High-Cycle Fatigue by Means of Cohesive-Zone Models

A damage model for the simulation of delamination propagation under high-cycle fatigue loading is proposed. The basis for the formulation is a cohesive law that links fracture and damage mechanics to establish the evolution of the damage variable in terms of the crack growth rate dA/dN. The damage state is obtained as a function of the loading conditions as well as the experimentally-determined coefficients of the Paris Law crack propagation rates for the material. It is shown that by using the constitutive fatigue damage model in a structural analysis, experimental results can be reproduced without the need of additional model-specific curve-fitting parameters

An Interface Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination Under Variable-Mode Ratio in Composite Materials

A thermodynamically consistent damage model for the simulation of progressive delamination under variable mode ratio is presented. The model is formulated in the context of the Damage Mechanics. The constitutive equation that results from the definition of the free energy as a function of a damage variable is used to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A new delamination initiation criterion is developed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. The formulation proposed accounts for crack closure effets avoiding interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers aftercomplete decohesion. The model is implemented in a finite element formulation. The numerical predictions given by the model are compared with experimental results

El Riesgo y las estrategias en la evaluación de los fondos de inversión de renta variable

El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en proponer una medida de performance adecuada para los fondos de inversión de renta variable. Las características específicas de este tipo de carteras inducen a tomar un enfoque basado en la L.M.C., por lo que se escoge como medida de riesgo el riesgo total de la cartera (pσ). Se introducen las estrategias pasivas y activas en el análisis, con lo que se consigue desarrollar una medida de performance que, además de medir la rentabilidad por gestión efectiva, la pondera en función del grado de actividad asumido por la cartera a evaluar.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Since conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. Monte Carlo results show that the estimator performs well in comparison to other estimators that have been proposed for estimation of general DLV models.

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

Experimental investigation of transient natural convection cooling of high prandtl number fluid with variable viscosity

Report for the scientific sojourn at the James Cook University, Australia, between June to December 2007. Free convection in enclosed spaces is found widely in natural and industrial systems. It is a topic of primary interest because in many systems it provides the largest resistance to the heat transfer in comparison with other heat transfer modes. In such systems the convection is driven by a density gradient within the fluid, which, usually, is produced by a temperature difference between the fluid and surrounding walls. In the oil industry, the oil, which has High Prandtl, usually is stored and transported in large tanks at temperatures high enough to keep its viscosity and, thus the pumping requirements, to a reasonable level. A temperature difference between the fluid and the walls of the container may give rise to the unsteady buoyancy force and hence the unsteady natural convection. In the initial period of cooling the natural convection regime dominates over the conduction contribution. As the oil cools down it typically becomes more viscous and this increase of viscosity inhibits the convection. At this point the oil viscosity becomes very large and unloading of the tank becomes very difficult. For this reason it is of primary interest to be able to predict the cooling rate of the oil. The general objective of this work is to develop and validate a simulation tool able to predict the cooling rates of high Prandtl fluid considering the variable viscosity effects.

Scheduling of straddle carriers in a container terminal

Report for the scientific sojourn at the University of California at Berkeley between September 2007 to February 2008. The globalization combined with the success of containerization has brought about tremendous increases in the transportation of containers across the world. This leads to an increasing size of container ships which causes higher demands on seaport container terminals and their equipment. In this situation, the success of container terminals resides in a fast transhipment process with reduced costs. For these reasons it is necessary to optimize the terminal’s processes. There are three main logistic processes in a seaport container terminal: loading and unloading of containerships, storage, and reception/deliver of containers from/to the hinterland. Moreover there is an additional process that ensures the interconnection between previous logistic activities: the internal transport subsystem. The aim of this paper is to optimize the internal transport cycle in a marine container terminal managed by straddle carriers, one of the most used container transfer technologies. Three sub-systems are analyzed in detail: the landside transportation, the storage of containers in the yard, and the quayside transportation. The conflicts and decisions that arise from these three subsystems are analytically investigated, and optimization algorithms are proposed. Moreover, simulation has been applied to TCB (Barcelona Container Terminal) to test these algorithms and compare different straddle carrier’s operation strategies, such as single cycle versus double cycle, and different sizes of the handling equipment fleet. The simulation model is explained in detail and the main decision-making algorithms from the model are presented and formulated.

Patrones de tomate: resistencia variable frente al nematodo Meloidogyne

Los patrones de tomate se han propuesto como una alternativa no química al uso del bromuro de metilo. En este estudio se evaluó la respuesta de resistencia de diez patrones de tomate (comerciales y experimentales) a nematodos del género Meloidogyne mediante un ensayo de campo realizado en un invernadero de plástico cuyo suelo se hallaba infestado por Meloidogyne javanica. Al finalizar la campaña agrícola (marzo a julio), siete de los patrones ensayados mostraron altos niveles de resistencia, uno presentó resistencia intermedia y dos resultaron ser susceptibles al nematodo.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.