Likelihood-based approaches to modeling demand for medical care

We review recent likelihood-based approaches to modeling demand for medical care. A semi-nonparametric model along the lines of Cameron and Johansson's Poisson polynomial model, but using a negative binomial baseline model, is introduced. We apply these models, as well a semiparametric Poisson, hurdle semiparametric Poisson, and finite mixtures of negative binomial models to six measures of health care usage taken from the Medical Expenditure Panel survey. We conclude that most of the models lead to statistically similar results, both in terms of information criteria and conditional and unconditional prediction. This suggests that applied researchers may not need to be overly concerned with the choice of which of these models they use to analyze data on health care demand.

SGP-1: prediction and validation of homologous genes based on sequence alignments

Conventional methods of gene prediction rely on the recognition of DNA-sequence signals, the coding potential or the comparison of a genomic sequence with a cDNA, EST, or protein database. Reasons for limited accuracy in many circumstances are species-specific training and the incompleteness of reference databases. Lately, comparative genome analysis has attracted increasing attention. Several analysis tools that are based on human/mouse comparisons are already available. Here, we present a program for the prediction of protein-coding genes, termed SGP-1 (Syntenic Gene Prediction), which is based on the similarity of homologous genomic sequences. In contrast to most existing tools, the accuracy of SGP-1 depends little on species-specific properties such as codon usage or the nucleotide distribution. SGP-1 may therefore be applied to nonstandard model organisms in vertebrates as well as in plants, without the need for extensive parameter training. In addition to predicting genes in large-scale genomic sequences, the program may be useful to validate gene structure annotations from databases. To this end, SGP-1 output also contains comparisons between predicted and annotated gene structures in HTML format. The program can be accessed via a Web server at http://soft.ice.mpg.de/sgp-1. The source code, written in ANSI C, is available on request from the authors.

Disentangling water usage in the European Union: A decomposition analysis

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) defines common objectives for water resources throughout the European Union (EU). Given this general approach to water preservation and water policy, the objective of this paper is to analyse whether common patterns of water consumption exist within Europe. In particular, our study uses two methods to reveal the reasons behind sectoral water use in all EU countries. The first method is based on an accounting indicator that calculates the water intensity of an economy as the sum of sectoral water intensities. The second method is a subsystem input‐output model that divides total water use into different income channels within the production system. The application uses data for the years 2005 and 2009 on water consumption in the production system of the 27 countries of the EU. From our analysis it emerges that EU countries are characterized by very different patterns of water consumption. In particular water consumption by the agriculture sector is extremely high in Central/Eastern Europe, relative to the rest of Europe. In most countries, the water used by the fuel, power and water sector is consumed to satisfy domestic final demand. However, our analysis shows that for some countries exports from this sector are an important driver of water consumption. Focusing on the agricultural sector, the decomposition analysis suggests that water usage in Mediterranean countries is mainly driven by final demand for, and exports of, agricultural products. In Central/Eastern Europe domestic final demand is the main driver of water consumption, but in this region the proportion of water use driven by demand for exports is increasing over time. Given these heterogeneous water consumption patterns, our analysis suggests that Mediterranean and Central/Eastern European countries should adopt specific water policies in order to achieve efficient levels of water consumption in the European Union. JEL codes: N5; C67 Keywords: Water use, Subsystem input–output model; Water intensity, European Union.

Enriching e-learning metadata through digital library usage analysis

Peer-reviewed