Ambiguity seeking as a result of the status quo bias

Several factors affect attitudes toward ambiguity. What happens, however, when peopleare asked to exchange an ambiguous alternative in their possession for an unambiguousone? We present three experiments in which individuals preferred to retain the former.This status quo bias emerged both within- and between-subjects, with and withoutincentives, with different outcome distributions, and with endowments determined byboth the experimenter and the participants themselves. Findings emphasize the need toaccount for the frames of reference under which evaluations of probabilistic informationtake place as well as modifications that should be incorporated into descriptive modelsof decision making.

The value of useless information

There are many situations in which individuals have a choice of whether or notto observe eventual outcomes. In these instances, individuals often prefer to remainignorant. These contexts are outside the scope of analysis of the standard vonNeumann-Morgenstern (vNM) expected utility model, which does not distinguishbetween lotteries for which the agent sees the final outcome and those for which hedoes not. I develop a simple model that admits preferences for making an observationor for remaining in doubt. I then use this model to analyze the connectionbetween preferences of this nature and risk-attitude. This framework accommodatesa wide array of behavioral patterns that violate the vNM model, and thatmay not seem related, prima facie. For instance, it admits self-handicapping, inwhich an agent chooses to impair his own performance. It also accommodatesa status quo bias without having recourse to framing effects, or to an explicitdefinition of reference points. In a political economy context, voters have strictincentives to shield themselves from information. In settings with other-regardingpreferences, this model predicts observed behavior that seems inconsistent witheither altruism or self-interested behavior.

Choice by sequential procedures

We propose a rule of decision-making, the sequential procedure guided byroutes, and show that three influential boundedly rational choice models can be equivalentlyunderstood as special cases of this rule. In addition, the sequential procedure guidedby routes is instrumental in showing that the three models are intimately related. We showthat choice with a status-quo bias is a refinement of rationalizability by game trees, which, inturn, is also a refinement of sequential rationalizability. Thus, we provide a sharp taxonomyof these choice models, and show that they all can be understood as choice by sequentialprocedures.

Resistance to reform: Reconsidering the role of individual-specific uncertainty

Individual-specific uncertainty may increase the chances of reform beingenacted and sustained. Reform may be more likely to be enacted because amajority of agents might end up losing little from reform and a minoritygaining a lot. Under certainty, reform would therefore be rejected, butit may be enacted with uncertainty because those who end up losing believethat they might be among the winners. Reform may be more likely to besustained because, in a realistic setting, reform will increase theincentives of agents to move into those economic activities that benefit.Agents who respond to these incentives will vote to sustain reform infuture elections, even if they would have rejected reform under certainty.These points are made using the trade-model of Fernandez and Rodrik (AER,1991).

A theory of reference-dependent behavior

Extensive field and experimental evidence in a variety of environments show that behavior depends on a reference point. This paper provides an axiomatic characterization of this dependence. We proceed by imposing gradually more structure on both choice correspondences and preference relations, requiring increasingly higher levels of rationality, and freeing the decision-maker from certain types of inconsistencies. The appropriate degree of behavioral structure will depend on the phenomenon that is to be modeled. Lastly, we provide two applications of our work: one to model the status-quo bias, and another to model addictive behavior.

On the weights of nations: assigning voting weights in a heterogenous union

Consider a voting procedure where countries, states, or districts comprising a union each elect representatives who then participate in later votes at the union level on their behalf. The countries, provinces, and states may vary in their populations and composition. If we wish to maximize the total expected utility of all agents in the union, how to weight the votes of the representatives of the different countries, states or districts at the union level? We provide a simple characterization of the efficient voting rule in terms of the weights assigned to different districts and the voting threshold (how large a qualified majority is needed to induce change versus the status quo). Next, in the context of a model of the correlation structure of agents preferences, we analyze how voting weights relate to the population size of a country. We then analyze the voting weights in Council of the European Union under the Nice Treaty and the recently proposed constitution, and contrast them under different versions of our model.

Experiències catalanes, angleses i irlandeses en el millorament de l’accès a l’habitatge

El Grup de Recerca d´Accés a l´Habitatge de la Universitat Rovira i Virgili ha portat a terme durant l´any 2011 una sèrie d´activitats gràcies a l´ajuda concedida per la convocatòria de l´AGAUR PBR-DGR 2010, que ha donat suport al Grup tant de forma directa (per exemple, en viatges i dietes) com indirecta (gràcies a l´ajuda prestada per la Sra. Helaine Cristina Madeira Santos, becària de suport al Grup de Recerca, que ha portat a terme tasques de coordinació i investigació). Així, el Grup ha portat a terme tasques d´investigació (per exemple, la signatura d´un Conveni amb l’Agència de l’Habitatge de Catalunya amb la finalitat de portar a terme en el termini de 3 anys l’elaboració d´un marc legislatiu sobre les tinences intermitges en el Dret català); tasques de formació (gràcies a la participació en Congressos i Jornades); esta coordinant una xarxa sobre grups d´habitatge (per exemple, mitjançant un Congrés internacional sobre habitatge celebrat a Granada); ha publicat llibres i articles científics (per exemple, la publicació dels treballs presentats en les III Jornades Internacionals de Housing de 2010); i finalment cal destacar que l´activitat del Grup ha tingut un gran impacte en els mitjans de comunicació. Tot aquest treball ha permès al Grup arribar a unes conclusions sobre el status quo de l´habitatge a Espanya, per exemple les mancances del mercat d´habitatge en propietat i en lloguer i els aspectes que cal reformar quant al règim tributari i processal d´aquestes formes de tinença immobiliària. La principal conclusió, però, és la necessitat de regular noves formes d´entendre la tinença de la terra tot seguint els models ja presents en altres països europeus (principalment, Anglaterra i Irlanda), com la propietat compartida i la propietat temporal, figures en les quals està aprofundint actualment el Grup de recerca.

Secession and liberal democracy. The case of the Basque country

The academic debate about the secession of a territory which is part of a liberal democracy state displays an initial contrast. On the one hand, practical secessionist movements usually legitimize their position using nationalist arguments linked to the principle of national self- determination. On the other hand, we find in academia few defenders of a normative principle of national self-determination. Philosophers, political scientists and jurists usually defend the status quo. And even when they do not defend it, most of them tend to leave the question of that question and secession unresolved or confused. Regarding this issue, liberal-democratic theories show a tendency to be “conservative” in relation to the political borders, regardless the historical and empirical processes of creation of current States. Probably, this feature is not far away to the fact that, since its beginning, political liberalism has not been a theory of the nation, but a theory of the state.

Representaciones de la mujer inmigrante en el cine español contemporáneo (1990-2009)

Este trabajo propone un proyecto de investigación cualitativa sobre las representaciones de la mujer inmigrante en el cine español contemporáneo (1990-2009) y establece un marco teórico que constituye la contextualización y el punto de partida del estudio propuesto a partir de un análisis del status quo de la inmigración femenina en nuestro país. En el marco de la creciente feminización del discurso sobre la inmigración, se efectúa un repaso a losprincipales datos estadísticos referentes a la mujer inmigrante y se realiza un recorrido por las representaciones y las imágenes sociales que de ella transmiten el cine -medio en el que se centrará específicamente la investigación- y los medios de comunicación, en susvertientes periodística y de ficción, a través del análisis de sus respectivos discursos por el impacto que éstos tienen en la opinión pública. Los resultados muestran una notable invisibilidad de la mujer inmigrante y una representación marginal y discriminatoria de la misma

An agenda-setting model of electoral competition

This paper presents a model of electoral competition focusing on the formation of thepublic agenda. An incumbent government and a challenger party in opposition competein elections by choosing the issues that will key out their campaigns. Giving salience toan issue implies proposing an innovative policy proposal, alternative to the status-quo.Parties trade off the issues with high salience in voters concerns and those with broadagreement on some alternative policy proposal. Each party expects a higher probabilityof victory if the issue it chooses becomes salient in the voters decision. But remarkably,the issues which are considered the most important ones by a majority of votes may notbe given salience during the electoral campaign. An incumbent government may survivein spite of its bad policy performance if there is no sufficiently broad agreement on apolicy alternative. We illustrate the analytical potential of the model with the case of theUnited States presidential election in 2004.

Addressing the natural resource curse: An illustration from Nigeria

Some natural resources oil and minerals in particular exert a negative andnonlinear impact on growth via their deleterious impact on institutionalquality. We show this result to be very robust. The Nigerian experienceprovides telling confirmation of this aspect of natural resources. Wasteand corruption from oil rather than Dutch disease has been responsible forits poor long run economic performance. We propose a solution for addressingthis resource curse which involves directly distributing the oil revenuesto the public. Even with all the difficulties of corruption and inefficiencythat will no doubt plague its actual implementation, our proposal will, atthe least, be vastly superior to the status quo. At best, however, it couldfundamentally improve the quality of public institutions and, as a result,transform economics and politics in Nigeria.

Organisational innovations and health care decentralisation: A perspective from Spain

Recent policy developments in public health care systems lead to a greater diversity in health care. Decentralisation, either geographically or at an institutional level, is the key force, because it encourages innovation and local initiatives in health care provision. The devolution of responsibilities allows for a sort of de-construction of the status quo by changing both organizational forms and service provision. The new organizations enjoy greater freedom in the way they pay their staff, and are judged according to their results. These organizations may retain financial surpluses, develop spin-off companies and commission a range of specialised services (such as Diagnostic and Treatment Centres in UK) from providers outside the institutional setting in order to have more access to capital markets. However this diversity may generate a feeling of lack of commitment to a national health service and ultimately a loss of social cohesion. By fiscal decentralisation to regional authorities or planned delegation of financial agreements to the providers, financial incentives are more explicit and may seem to place profit-making above a commitment to better health care. An evaluation of the myths and realities of the decentralization process is needed. Here, I offer an assessment pros and cons of the decentralization process of health care in Spain, drawing on the experience of regional reforms from the pioneering organisational innovations implemented in Catalonia in 1981, up to the observed dispersion of health care spending per capita among regions at present.

The political economy of employment protection

This paper develops a model of job creation and job destruction in agrowing economy with embodied technical progress, that we use toanalyze the political support for employment protection legislationssuch as the ones that are observed in most European countries.We analyze the possibility of Condorcet cycles due to the fact thatworkers about to become unemployed prefer both an increase and areduction in firing costs over the status quo. Despite this problem, we show the existence of local, and sometimes global majority winners.In voting in favour of employment protection, incumbent employeestrade off lower living standards (because employment protectionmaintains workers in less productive activities) against longer job duration. We show that the gains from, and consequently the politicalsupport for employment protection (as defined by maximunjob tenure) are larger, the lower the rate of creative destruction and the largerthe worker's bargaining power. Numerical simulations suggest a hump-shaped response of firing costs to these variables, as well as negative impact of exogeneous turnover on employment protection.

A model of conglomeration and synergy traps

We present a model of conglomeration motivated by technology synergies and strategic reductions in variable costs in the face of competitive pressures. The resulting firm integration is neither horizontal nor vertical but rather congeneric integration of firms in related industries. We endogenize the industrial conglomeration structure and examine the effects of competition between conglomerates, and between a conglomerate and independent firms. We show that there is an equilibrium synergy trap in which conglomerates are formed to exploit economies of scope, but resulting profits are lower than under the status quo. We also show that strategic firm integration can occur even in the presence of diseconomies of scope. The model helps to explain features of recent mergers and acquisitions experience.

Sistema fiscal y reforma de la Seguridad Social

El presente trabajo analiza desde un punto de vista cuantitativo, mediante un modelo de equilibrio general de generaciones sucesivas, los efectos sobre la economía española de eliminar el actual sistema de Seguridad Social e implantar uno de capitalización. El análisis considera el proceso de transición y mide en términos de bienestar, quiénes son los agentes que se opondrían a este tipo de reforma. La consideración de la interacción entre el sistema de seguridad social y el sistema fiscal implica mayores beneficios asociados a una reforma de la seguridad social. Sin embargo, este tipo de reforma sigue generando pérdidas de bienestar para la mayoría de agentes vivos en el momentodel inicio de la reforma, existiendo un sesgo en favor del status quo.