Likelihood inferences with interval-censored data

En l’anàlisi de la supervivència el problema de les dades censurades en un interval es tracta, usualment,via l’estimació per màxima versemblança. Amb l’objectiu d’utilitzar una expressió simplificada de la funció de versemblança, els mètodes estàndards suposen que les condicions que produeixen la censura no afecten el temps de fallada. En aquest article formalitzem les condicions que asseguren la validesa d’aquesta versemblança simplificada. Així, precisem diferents condicions de censura no informativa i definim una condició de suma constant anàloga a la derivada en el context de censura per la dreta. També demostrem que les inferències obtingudes amb la versemblançaa simplificada són correctes quan aquestes condicions són certes. Finalment, tractem la identificabilitat de la funció distribució del temps de fallada a partir de la informació observada i estudiem la possibilitat de contrastar el compliment de la condició de suma constant.

Likelihood-based approaches to modeling demand for medical care

We review recent likelihood-based approaches to modeling demand for medical care. A semi-nonparametric model along the lines of Cameron and Johansson's Poisson polynomial model, but using a negative binomial baseline model, is introduced. We apply these models, as well a semiparametric Poisson, hurdle semiparametric Poisson, and finite mixtures of negative binomial models to six measures of health care usage taken from the Medical Expenditure Panel survey. We conclude that most of the models lead to statistically similar results, both in terms of information criteria and conditional and unconditional prediction. This suggests that applied researchers may not need to be overly concerned with the choice of which of these models they use to analyze data on health care demand.

Indirect likelihood inference

Given a sample from a fully specified parametric model, let Zn be a given finite-dimensional statistic - for example, an initial estimator or a set of sample moments. We propose to (re-)estimate the parameters of the model by maximizing the likelihood of Zn. We call this the maximum indirect likelihood (MIL) estimator. We also propose a computationally tractable Bayesian version of the estimator which we refer to as a Bayesian Indirect Likelihood (BIL) estimator. In most cases, the density of the statistic will be of unknown form, and we develop simulated versions of the MIL and BIL estimators. We show that the indirect likelihood estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed, with the same asymptotic variance as that of the corresponding efficient two-step GMM estimator based on the same statistic. However, our likelihood-based estimators, by taking into account the full finite-sample distribution of the statistic, are higher order efficient relative to GMM-type estimators. Furthermore, in many cases they enjoy a bias reduction property similar to that of the indirect inference estimator. Monte Carlo results for a number of applications including dynamic and nonlinear panel data models, a structural auction model and two DSGE models show that the proposed estimators indeed have attractive finite sample properties.

The hardness profile as a tool to detect spurious stationary points in the potential energy surface

The energy and hardness profile for a series of inter and intramolecular conformational changes at several levels of calculation were computed. The hardness profiles were found to be calculated as the difference between the vertical ionization potential and electron affinity. The hardness profile shows the correct number of stationary points independently of the basis set and methodology used. It was found that the hardness profiles can be used to check the reliability of the energy profiles for those chemical system

Hypothalamus transcriptome profile suggests an anorexia-cachexia syndrome in the anx/anx mouse model

The anx/anx mouse displays poor appetite and lean appearance and is considered a good model for the study of anorexia nervosa. To identify new genes involved in feeding behavior and body weight regulation we performed an expression profiling in the hypothalamus of the anx/anx mice. Using commercial microarrays we detected 156 differentially expressed genes and validated 92 of those using TaqMan low-density arrays. The expression of a set of 87 candidate genes selected based on literature evidences was also quantified by TaqMan low-density arrays. Our results showed enrichment in deregulated genes involved in cell death, cell morphology and cancer as well as an alteration of several signaling circuits involved in energy balance including neuropeptide Y and melanocortin signaling. The expression profile along with the phenotype led us to conclude that anx/anx mice resemble the anorexia-cachexia syndrome typically observed in cancer, infection with human immunodeficiency virus or chronic diseases, rather than starvation, and that anx/anx mice could be considered a good model for the treatment and investigation of this condition.

Multi-receptor binding profile of clozapine and olanzapine: a structural study based on the new beta (2) adrenergic receptor template

Schizophrenia is a devastating mental disorder that has a largeimpact on the quality of life for those who are afflicted and isvery costly for families and society.[1] Although the etiology ofschizophrenia is still unknown and no cure has yet beenfound, it is treatable, and pharmacological therapy often producessatisfactory results. Among the various antipsychoticdrugs in use, clozapine is widely recognized as one ofthemost clinically effective agents, even if it elicits significant sideeffects such as metabolic disorders and agranulocytosis. Clozapineand the closely related compound olanzapine are goodexamples ofdrug s with a complex multi-receptor profile ;[2]they have affinities toward serotonin, dopamine, a adrenergic,muscarinic, and histamine receptors, among others.

Marco metodológico para la definición de un perfil profesional en educación superior = Methodological framework for the definition of a professional profile in higher education

En el marco del Espacio Europeo de Educación Superior 1 se inscriben innumerables acciones que están desarrollando todas las universidades europeas con la intención de llegar al 2010 con un bagaje lo suficientemente importante como para afrontar este cambio con entereza y sobretodo conservando (o incrementando) la calidad de los procesos de enseñanza- aprendizaje que hasta el momento han predominado. Dentro de este amplio proceso de transformación se encuentra el diseño de los nuevos Grados que brinda la oportunidad de replantear los planes de estudios, por tanto, la organización de las asignaturas, estructura de los contenidos, metodologías y sistemas de evaluación. Toda esta reflexión debe girar, a nuestro entender, alrededor de tres núcleos que se encuentran en estado deinterdependencia: los escenarios profesionales, los perfiles profesionales y las competencias que en ellos se inscriben.Para poder plantear los nuevos Grados en coherencia con la era del EEES debe hacerse un análisis minucioso de los perfil profesionales demandados por el mercado de trabajo que, al fin y al cabo será el destino de los profesionales que se forman en nuestras universidades, es por ello, que la tarea de definir el perfil profesional a priori del diseño de los nuevos Grados resulta una máxima para garantizar la calidad de estos. En este trabajo se presenta un ejemplo de metodología a seguir para la definición de un perfil profesional en Educación Superior, concretamente, el del Ingeniero TIC mediante el Análisis Funcional.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

High-growth cooperatives: Financial profile and key factors for competitiveness

Given the current economic environment, high-growth companies are particularly relevant for their contribution to employment generation and wealth.This paper discusses the results of a survey that was conducted in order to gain a deeper understanding of high-growth cooperatives through analyzing their financial profiles and then identifying key contributing factors to their growth. To do this, we compared this particular sample with other cooperatives and other high-growth mercantile companies.The results show the main drivers related to high-growth companies success. They are the competitive advantages based on the surveyed group, modern management techniques, quality and productivity, innovation and internationalization. Additionally, we have observed some financial strengths and weaknesses. In this sense, they are under capitalized companies with an unbalanced growth.

Maximum-likelihood estimation of specific differential phase and attenuation in rain

Precise estimation of propagation parameters inprecipitation media is of interest to improve the performanceof communications systems and in remote sensing applications.In this paper, we present maximum-likelihood estimators ofspecific attenuation and specific differential phase in rain. Themodel used for obtaining the cited estimators assumes coherentpropagation, reflection symmetry of the medium, and Gaussianstatistics of the scattering matrix measurements. No assumptionsabout the microphysical properties of the medium are needed.The performance of the estimators is evaluated through simulateddata. Results show negligible estimators bias and variances closeto Cramer–Rao bounds.

A new maximum likelihood method for luminosity calibrations

A new statistical parallax method using the Maximum Likelihood principle is presented, allowing the simultaneous determination of a luminosity calibration, kinematic characteristics and spatial distribution of a given sample. This method has been developed for the exploitation of the Hipparcos data and presents several improvements with respect to the previous ones: the effects of the selection of the sample, the observational errors, the galactic rotation and the interstellar absorption are taken into account as an intrinsic part of the formulation (as opposed to external corrections). Furthermore, the method is able to identify and characterize physically distinct groups in inhomogeneous samples, thus avoiding biases due to unidentified components. Moreover, the implementation used by the authors is based on the extensive use of numerical methods, so avoiding the need for simplification of the equations and thus the bias they could introduce. Several examples of application using simulated samples are presented, to be followed by applications to real samples in forthcoming articles.

Statistical analysis of maximum likelihood estimator images of human brain FDG PET studies

The work presented evaluates the statistical characteristics of regional bias and expected error in reconstructions of real positron emission tomography (PET) data of human brain fluoro-deoxiglucose (FDG) studies carried out by the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) method with a robust stopping rule, and compares them with the results of filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstructions and with the method of sieves. The task of evaluating radioisotope uptake in regions-of-interest (ROIs) is investigated. An assessment of bias and variance in uptake measurements is carried out with simulated data. Then, by using three different transition matrices with different degrees of accuracy and a components of variance model for statistical analysis, it is shown that the characteristics obtained from real human FDG brain data are consistent with the results of the simulation studies.

Enhancement of the photoelectrochemical properties of Cl-doped ZnO nanowires by tuning their coaxial doping profile

Arrays of vertically aligned ZnO:Cl/ZnO core-shell nanowires were used to demonstrate that the control of the coaxial doping profile in homojunction nanostructures can improve their surface charge carrier transfer while conserving potentially excellent transport properties. It is experimentally shown that the presence of a ZnO shell enhances the photoelectrochemical properties of ZnO:Cl nanowires up to a factor 5. Likewise, the ZnO shell promotes the visible photoluminescence band in highly conducting ZnO:Cl nanowires. These lines of evidence are associated with the increase of the nanowires" surface depletion layer

Depth profile of uncompensated spins in an exchange bias system

We have used the unique spatial sensitivity of polarized neutron and soft x-ray beams in reflection geometry to measure the depth dependence of magnetization across the interface between a ferromagnet and an antiferromagnet. The net uncompensated magnetization near the interface responds to applied field, while uncompensated spins in the antiferromagnet bulk are pinned, thus providing a means to establish exchange bias.