Urban population density functions : the case of the Barcelona region

L'anàlisi de la densitat urbana és utilitzada per examinar la distribució espacial de la població dins de les àrees urbanes, i és força útil per planificar els serveis públics. En aquest article, s'estudien setze formes funcionals clàssiques de la relació existent entre la densitat i la distancia en la regió metropolitana de Barcelona i els seus onze subcentres.

Cubic spline population density functions and subcentre delimitation. The case of Barcelona

The presence of subcentres cannot be captured by an exponential function. Cubic spline functions seem more appropriate to depict the polycentricity pattern of modern urban systems. Using data from Barcelona Metropolitan Region, two possible population subcentre delimitation procedures are discussed. One, taking an estimated derivative equal to zero, the other, a density gradient equal to zero. It is argued that, in using a cubic spline function, a delimitation strategy based on derivatives is more appropriate than one based on gradients because the estimated density can be negative in sections with very low densities and few observations, leading to sudden changes in estimated gradients. It is also argued that using as a criteria for subcentre delimitation a second derivative with value zero allow us to capture a more restricted subcentre area than using as a criteria a first derivative zero. This methodology can also be used for intermediate ring delimitation.

Endogenous population subgroups: the best population partition and optimal number of groups

The aim of this paper is to suggest a method to find endogenously the points that group the individuals of a given distribution in k clusters, where k is endogenously determined. These points are the cut-points. Thus, we need to determine a partition of the N individuals into a number k of groups, in such way that individuals in the same group are as alike as possible, but as distinct as possible from individuals in other groups. This method can be applied to endogenously identify k groups in income distributions: possible applications can be poverty

Hispanic population in the USA: the opportunity to create a shared brand

El tema d’aquest treball de recerca ha nascut gràcies a l’experiència viscuda a Carolina del Sud (EEUU) com estudiant i treballador. És un fet que la població hispana als Estats Units és cada cop mes important, el que ha provocat un canvi en la mentalitat de les empreses del lloc. S’han adonat que no és suficient amb seguir l’estratègia de comunicació que tenien anteriorment, i ara han de fer mes cas a un nou públic objectiu. Saber com han de fer-ho es la fita d’aquest treball.

On a size-structured two-phase population model with infinite states-at-birth

In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

Spanish pension system: population aging and immigration policy

There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029

Comparing population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data: an application to historical height data from France

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the entire population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data. We do this through the estimation of the parameters of mixtures of distributions that allow for maximal parametric flexibility. The statistical approach we develop enables comparisons of the full distributions of height data from potential army conscripts across France's 88 departments for most of the nineteenth century. These comparisons are made by testing for differences-of-means stochastic dominance. Corrections for possible measurement errors are also devised by taking advantage of the richness of the data sets. Our methodology is of interest to researchers working on historical as well as contemporary bin-aggregated or histogram-type data, something that is still widely done since much of the information that is publicly available is in that form, often due to restrictions due to political sensitivity and/or confidentiality concerns.

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

Oscillations in a molecular structured cell population model

We consider a nonlinear cyclin content structured model of a cell population divided into proliferative and quiescent cells. We show, for particular values of the parameters, existence of solutions that do not depend on the cyclin content. We make numerical simulations for the general case obtaining, for some values of the parameters convergence to the steady state but also oscillations of the population for others.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Spatio-temporal variations in reproductive patterns and population structure of Pasiphaea multidentata (Decapoda: Caridea) in the Blanes canyon and adjacent margin, North-western Mediterranean Sea

The bathyal faunal communities of the NW Mediterranean slopes have been studied consistently in the last two decades, with a special focus on population structure, trophic dynamics and benthopelagic coupling of commercial deep-sea decapod crustaceans and fishes (reviewed in Sardà et al. 2004) and associated species (Cartes and Sardà, 1993; Company and Sardà, 1997, 2000; Cartes et al., 2001; Company et al., 2001, 2003, 2004). One of the major topographic features in the North-western Mediterranean slope is the presence of submarine canyons. Canyons play a major role in funnelling energy and organic matter from the shelf to bathyal and abyssal depths (Puig et al., 2000), but the implications of this enhanced organic supply in the deep-sea benthic communities is still mostly unknown. Trophic supply can follow two major pathways – vertical deposition in the water column (Billett et al., 1983; Baldwin et al., 1998; Lampitt et al., 2001) or down-slope advection on the margins (Puig et al., 2001; Bethoux et al., 2002; Canals et al., 2006) – and can be a limiting factor in the deep-sea, being especially important in the oligotrophic Mediterranean Sea (Sardà et al., 2004). Differences in the quantity, quality and timing of organic matter input to the deep seafloor have been used to explain patterns of biomass and abundance in benthic communities (Levin et al., 1994; Gooday & Turley, 1990; Billett et al., 2001; Galéron et al., 2001; Puig et al., 2001; Gage, 2003) as well as other biological process and in particular the existence of seasonal reproduction (Tyler et al., 1994; Company et al., 2004 (MEPS). Reproduction is a highly energetic process tightly linked to food availability and quality.

Population genetic structure and demography analysis in palinurus elephas populations from atlantic and mediterranean waters

Report for the scientific sojourn at the University of Reading, United Kingdom, from January until May 2008. The main objectives have been firstly to infer population structure and parameters in demographic models using a total of 13 microsatellite loci for genotyping approximately 30 individuals per population in 10 Palinurus elephas populations both from Mediterranean and Atlantic waters. Secondly, developing statistical methods to identify discrepant loci, possibly under selection and implement those methods using the R software environment. It is important to consider that the calculation of the probability distribution of the demographic and mutational parameters for a full genetic data set is numerically difficult for complex demographic history (Stephens 2003). The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), based on summary statistics to infer posterior distributions of variable parameters without explicit likelihood calculations, can surmount this difficulty. This would allow to gather information on different demographic prior values (i.e. effective population sizes, migration rate, microsatellite mutation rate, mutational processes) and assay the sensitivity of inferences to demographic priors by assuming different priors.

ALK rearrangement in a selected population of advanced non small cell lung cancer patients. FISH and inmunohistochemistry diagnostic methods, prevalence and clinical outcomes

Anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangements represents a new driver oncogenic event in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). ALK positive patients account for a 1-7% of NSCLC patients. The objective of this study is to know the prevalence and clinical characteristics of ALK positive patients in a cohort of NSCLC patients and to compare inmunohistochemistry with D5F3 monoclonal antibody with gold standard method fluorescence in situ hybridation

Neuroendocrine Tumors (NETs): A population-based study of incidence and survival in Girona province, 1994-2004

Els tumors neuroendocrins (TNEs) són un grup de neoplàsies poc freqüents i heterogènies i amb un ampli espectre d’agressivitat. Hi ha molt poca informació epidemiològica a nivell mundial, l’objectiu d’aquest estudi ha estat el de reportar-ne les dades a la província de Girona. Hem inclòs tots els codis de la ICD-O3 que codifiquen un TNE, període 1994-2002. Hem identificat 698 tumors. Es reporten les dades tant de la casuística com les taxes d’incidència i supervivència de cada TNE per separat. Els resultats són consistents amb les publicacions europees. El fet d’haver reportat la incidència i la supervivència dels TNEs a Girona contribueix a un millor coneixement d’aquestes neoplàsies.