Statistical properties of new neutrality tests against population growth.

A number of statistical tests for detecting population growth are described. We compared the statistical power of these tests with that of others available in the literature. The tests evaluated fall into three categories: those tests based on the distribution of the mutation frequencies, on the haplotype distribution, and on the mismatch distribution. We found that, for an extensive variety of cases, the most powerful tests for detecting population growth are Fu"s FS test and the newly developed R2 test. The behavior of the R2 test is superior for small sample sizes, whereas FS is better for large sample sizes. We also show that some popular statistics based on the mismatch distribution are very conservative. Key words: population growth, population expansion, coalescent simulations, neutrality tests

A genomic analysis identifies a novel component in the genetic structure of sub-Saharan African populations

Studies of large sets of SNP data have proven to be a powerful tool in the analysis of the genetic structure of human populations. In this work, we analyze genotyping data for 2,841 SNPs in 12 Sub-Saharan African populations, including a previously unsampled region of south-eastern Africa (Mozambique). We show that robust results in a world-wide perspective can be obtained when analyzing only 1,000 SNPs. Our main results both confirm the results of previous studies, and show new and interesting features in Sub-Saharan African genetic complexity. There is a strong differentiation of Nilo-Saharans, much beyond what would be expected by geography. Hunter-gatherer populations (Khoisan and Pygmies) show a clear distinctiveness with very intrinsic Pygmy (and not only Khoisan) genetic features. Populations of the West Africa present an unexpected similarity among them, possibly the result of a population expansion. Finally, we find a strong differentiation of the south-eastern Bantu population from Mozambique, which suggests an assimilation of a pre-Bantu substrate by Bantu speakers in the region.

Natural or naturalized? phylogeography suggests that the abundant sea urchin arbacia lixula Is a recent Colonizer of the Mediterranean

We present the global phylogeography of the black sea urchin Arbacia lixula, an amphi-Atlantic echinoid with potential to strongly impact shallow rocky ecosystems. Sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase gene of 604 specimens from 24 localities were obtained, covering most of the distribution area of the species, including the Mediterranean and both shores of the Atlantic. Genetic diversity measures, phylogeographic patterns, demographic parameters and population differentiation were analysed. We found high haplotype diversity but relatively low nucleotide diversity, with 176 haplotypes grouped within three haplogroups: one is shared between Eastern Atlantic (including Mediterranean) and Brazilian populations, the second is found in Eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean and the third is exclusively from Brazil. Significant genetic differentiation was found between Brazilian, Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean regions, but no differentiation was found among Mediterranean sub-basins or among Eastern Atlantic sub-regions. The star-shaped topology of the haplotype network and the unimodal mismatch distributions of Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic samples suggest that these populations have suffered very recent demographic expansions. These expansions could be dated 94-205 kya in the Mediterranean, and 31-67 kya in the Eastern Atlantic. In contrast, Brazilian populations did not show any signature of population expansion. Our results indicate that all populations of A. lixula constitute a single species. The Brazilian populations probably diverged from an Eastern Atlantic stock. The present-day genetic structure of the species in Eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean is shaped by very recent demographic processes. Our results support the view (backed by the lack of fossil record) that A. lixula is a recent thermophilous colonizer which spread throughout the Mediterranean during a warm period of the Pleistocene, probably during the last interglacial. Implications for the possible future impact of A. lixula on shallow Mediterranean ecosystems in the context of global warming trends must be considered.

Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?

[spa] La estimación del impacto del tamaño de la populación sobre la probabilidad de conflicto civil se complica por el sesgo de endogeneidad y las variables omitidas. Este artículo trata el problema de causalidad utilizando métodos de variables instrumentales en un panel de 37 países del África Sub-sahariana en el período 1981-2004. Encontramos que un aumento de la población en un 1% aumenta la probabilidad de conflicto civil por un 5.2%.

Population connectivity buffers genetic diversity loss in a seabird

Background Ancient DNA has revolutionized conservation genetic studies as it allows monitoring of the genetic variability of species through time and predicting the impact of ecosystems" threats on future population dynamics and viability. Meanwhile, the consequences of anthropogenic activities and climate change to island faunas, particularly seabirds, remain largely unknown. In this study, we examined temporal changes in the genetic diversity of a threatened seabird, the Cory"s shearwater (Calonectris borealis). Findings We analysed the mitochondrial DNA control region of ancient bone samples from the late-Holocene retrieved from the Canary archipelago (NE Atlantic) together with modern DNA sequences representative of the entire breeding range of the species. Our results show high levels of ancient genetic diversity in the Canaries comparable to that of the extant population. The temporal haplotype network further revealed rare but recurrent long-distance dispersal between ocean basins. The Bayesian demographic analyses reveal both regional and local population size expansion events, and this is in spite of the demographic decline experienced by the species over the last millennia. Conclusions Our findings suggest that population connectivity of the species has acted as a buffer of genetic losses and illustrate the use of ancient DNA to uncover such cryptic genetic events.

Cohabitation effect on the slowdown of the Neolithic expansion

We introduce the effect of cohabitation between generations to a previous model on the slowdown of the Neolithic transition in Europe. This effect consists on the fact that human beings do not leave their children alone when they migrate, but on the contrary they cohabit until their children reach adulthood. We also use archaeological data to estimate the variation of the Mesolithic population density with distance, and use this information to predict the slowdown of the Neolithic front speed. The new equation leads to a substantial correction, up to 37%, relative to previous results. The new model is able to provide a satisfactory explanation not only to the relative speed but also to the absolute speed of the Neolithic front obtained from archaeological data

Urban population density functions : the case of the Barcelona region

L'anàlisi de la densitat urbana és utilitzada per examinar la distribució espacial de la població dins de les àrees urbanes, i és força útil per planificar els serveis públics. En aquest article, s'estudien setze formes funcionals clàssiques de la relació existent entre la densitat i la distancia en la regió metropolitana de Barcelona i els seus onze subcentres.

Cubic spline population density functions and subcentre delimitation. The case of Barcelona

The presence of subcentres cannot be captured by an exponential function. Cubic spline functions seem more appropriate to depict the polycentricity pattern of modern urban systems. Using data from Barcelona Metropolitan Region, two possible population subcentre delimitation procedures are discussed. One, taking an estimated derivative equal to zero, the other, a density gradient equal to zero. It is argued that, in using a cubic spline function, a delimitation strategy based on derivatives is more appropriate than one based on gradients because the estimated density can be negative in sections with very low densities and few observations, leading to sudden changes in estimated gradients. It is also argued that using as a criteria for subcentre delimitation a second derivative with value zero allow us to capture a more restricted subcentre area than using as a criteria a first derivative zero. This methodology can also be used for intermediate ring delimitation.

Endogenous population subgroups: the best population partition and optimal number of groups

The aim of this paper is to suggest a method to find endogenously the points that group the individuals of a given distribution in k clusters, where k is endogenously determined. These points are the cut-points. Thus, we need to determine a partition of the N individuals into a number k of groups, in such way that individuals in the same group are as alike as possible, but as distinct as possible from individuals in other groups. This method can be applied to endogenously identify k groups in income distributions: possible applications can be poverty

On the asymptotic expansion of the colored Jones polynomial for torus knots

In the asymptotic expansion of the hyperbolic specification of the colored Jones polynomial of torus knots, we identify different geometric contributions, in particular Chern-Simons invariant and Reidemeister torsion.

Hispanic population in the USA: the opportunity to create a shared brand

El tema d’aquest treball de recerca ha nascut gràcies a l’experiència viscuda a Carolina del Sud (EEUU) com estudiant i treballador. És un fet que la població hispana als Estats Units és cada cop mes important, el que ha provocat un canvi en la mentalitat de les empreses del lloc. S’han adonat que no és suficient amb seguir l’estratègia de comunicació que tenien anteriorment, i ara han de fer mes cas a un nou públic objectiu. Saber com han de fer-ho es la fita d’aquest treball.

On a size-structured two-phase population model with infinite states-at-birth

In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

Spanish pension system: population aging and immigration policy

There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029

Comparing population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data: an application to historical height data from France

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the entire population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data. We do this through the estimation of the parameters of mixtures of distributions that allow for maximal parametric flexibility. The statistical approach we develop enables comparisons of the full distributions of height data from potential army conscripts across France's 88 departments for most of the nineteenth century. These comparisons are made by testing for differences-of-means stochastic dominance. Corrections for possible measurement errors are also devised by taking advantage of the richness of the data sets. Our methodology is of interest to researchers working on historical as well as contemporary bin-aggregated or histogram-type data, something that is still widely done since much of the information that is publicly available is in that form, often due to restrictions due to political sensitivity and/or confidentiality concerns.

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.