Vulnerability to poverty: A microeconometric approach and application to the Republic of Haiti

This paper investigates vulnerability to poverty in Haiti. Research in vulnerability in developing countries has been scarce due to the high data requirements of vulnerability studies (e.g. panel or long series of cross-sections). The methodology adopted here allows the assessment of vulnerability to poverty by exploiting the short panel structure of nested data at different levels. The decomposition method reveals that vulnerability in Haiti is largely a rural phenomenon and that schooling correlates negatively with vulnerability. Most importantly, among the different shocks affecting household's income, it is found that meso-level shocks are in general far more important than covariate shocks. This finding points to some interesting policy implications in decentralizing policies to alleviate vulnerability to poverty.

Vulnerability assessment of distributed systems

In this project I have carried out a vulnerability assessment of a component of the Condor Middleware. In this assessment I have sought and found the more dangerous software vulnerabilities of this system, I have reported them to the development team such that they may be fixed, and thus improve the security of this distributed system, and the networks that use it.

Viticulture under climate change : understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity of wineries and growers. A case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia

Climate change may pose challenges and opportunities to viticulture, and much research has focused in studying the likely impacts on grapes and wine production in different regions worldwide. This study assesses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the viticulture sector under changing climate conditions, based on a case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia. Farm assets, livelihood strategies, farmer-market interactions and climate changes perceptions are analysed through semi-structured interviews with different types of wineries and growers. Both types of actors are equally exposed to biophysical stressors but unevenly affected by socioeconomic changes. While wineries are vulnerable because of the current economic crisis and the lack of diversification of their work, which may affect their income or production, growers are mainly affected by the low prices of their products and the lack of fix contracts. These socioeconomic stressors strongly condition their capacity to adapt to climate change, meaning that growers prioritize their immediate income problems, rather than future socioeconomic or climate threats. Therefore, growers undertake reactive adaptation to climate changing conditions, mainly based on ancient knowledge, whilst wineries combine both reactive and anticipatory adaptation practices. These circumstances should be addressed in order to allow better anticipatory adaptation to be implemented, thus avoiding future climate threats.

Assessing farmers' vulnerability to climate change : a case study in Karnataka, India

In the context of observed climate change impacts and their effect on agriculture and crop production, this study intends to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods through a study case in Karnataka, India. The social approach of climate change vulnerability in this study case includes defining and exploring factors that determine farmers’ vulnerability in four villages. Key informant interviews, farmer workshops and structured household interviews were used for data collection. To analyse the data, we adapted and applied three vulnerability indices: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI-IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI), and used descriptive statistical methods. The data was analysed at two scales: whole sample-level and household level. The results from applying the indices for the whole-sample level show that this community's vulnerability to climate change is moderate, whereas the household-level results show that most of the households' vulnerability is high-very high, while 15 key drivers of vulnerability were identified. Results and limitations of the study are discussed under the rural livelihoods framework, in which the indices are based, allowing a better understanding of the social behaviouraltrends, as well as an holistic and integrated view of the climate change, agriculture, and livelihoods processes shaping vulnerability. We conclude that these indices, although a straightforward method to assess vulnerability, have limitations that could account for inaccuracies and inability to be standardised for benchmarking, therefore we stress the need for further research.

Relation between plaque type, plaque thickness, blood shear stress, and plaque stress in coronary arteries assessed by X-ray Angiography and Intravascular Ultrasound

Purpose: Atheromatic plaque progression is affected, among others phenomena, by biomechanical, biochemical, and physiological factors. In this paper, the authors introduce a novel framework able to provide both morphological (vessel radius, plaque thickness, and type) and biomechanical (wall shear stress and Von Mises stress) indices of coronary arteries. Methods: First, the approach reconstructs the three-dimensional morphology of the vessel from intravascular ultrasound(IVUS) and Angiographic sequences, requiring minimal user interaction. Then, a computational pipeline allows to automatically assess fluid-dynamic and mechanical indices. Ten coronary arteries are analyzed illustrating the capabilities of the tool and confirming previous technical and clinical observations. Results: The relations between the arterial indices obtained by IVUS measurement and simulations have been quantitatively analyzed along the whole surface of the artery, extending the analysis of the coronary arteries shown in previous state of the art studies. Additionally, for the first time in the literature, the framework allows the computation of the membrane stresses using a simplified mechanical model of the arterial wall. Conclusions: Circumferentially (within a given frame), statistical analysis shows an inverse relation between the wall shear stress and the plaque thickness. At the global level (comparing a frame within the entire vessel), it is observed that heavy plaque accumulations are in general calcified and are located in the areas of the vessel having high wall shear stress. Finally, in their experiments the inverse proportionality between fluid and structural stresses is observed.

Relation between plaque type, plaque thickness, blood shear stress, and plaque stress in coronary arteries assessed by X-ray Angiography and Intravascular Ultrasound

Purpose: Atheromatic plaque progression is affected, among others phenomena, by biomechanical, biochemical, and physiological factors. In this paper, the authors introduce a novel framework able to provide both morphological (vessel radius, plaque thickness, and type) and biomechanical (wall shear stress and Von Mises stress) indices of coronary arteries. Methods: First, the approach reconstructs the three-dimensional morphology of the vessel from intravascular ultrasound(IVUS) and Angiographic sequences, requiring minimal user interaction. Then, a computational pipeline allows to automatically assess fluid-dynamic and mechanical indices. Ten coronary arteries are analyzed illustrating the capabilities of the tool and confirming previous technical and clinical observations. Results: The relations between the arterial indices obtained by IVUS measurement and simulations have been quantitatively analyzed along the whole surface of the artery, extending the analysis of the coronary arteries shown in previous state of the art studies. Additionally, for the first time in the literature, the framework allows the computation of the membrane stresses using a simplified mechanical model of the arterial wall. Conclusions: Circumferentially (within a given frame), statistical analysis shows an inverse relation between the wall shear stress and the plaque thickness. At the global level (comparing a frame within the entire vessel), it is observed that heavy plaque accumulations are in general calcified and are located in the areas of the vessel having high wall shear stress. Finally, in their experiments the inverse proportionality between fluid and structural stresses is observed.

Vulnerability of stream biota to climate change in mediterranean climate regions: a synthesis of ecological responses and conservation challenges

Freshwater species worldwide are experiencing dramatic declines partly attributable to ongoing climate change. It is expected that the future effects of climate change could be particularly severe in mediterranean climate (med-) regions, which host many endemic species already under great stress from the high level of human development. In this article, we review the climate and climate-induced changes in streams of med-regions and the responses of stream biota, focusing on both observed and anticipated ecological responses. We also discuss current knowledge gaps and conservation challenges. Expected climate alterations have already been observed in the last decades, and include: increased annual average air temperatures; decreased annual average precipitation; hydrologic alterations; and an increase in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme events, such as floods, droughts and fires. Recent observations, which are concordant with forecasts built, show stream biota of med-regions when facing climate changes tend to be displaced towards higher elevations and upper latitudes, communities tend to change their composition and homogenize, while some life-history traits seem to provide biota with resilience and resistance to adapt to the new conditions (as being short-lived, small, and resistant to low streamflow and desiccation). Nevertheless, such responses may be insufficient to cope with current and future environmental changes. Accurate forecasts of biotic changes and possible adaptations are difficult to obtain in med-regions mainly because of the difficulty of distinguishing disturbances due to natural variability from the effects of climate change, particularly regarding hydrology. Long-term studies are needed to disentangle such variability and improve knowledge regarding the ecological responses and the detection of early warning signals to climate change. Investments should focus on taxa beyond fish and macroinvertebrates, and in covering the less studied regions of Chile and South Africa. Scientists, policy makers and water managers must be involved in the climate change dialogue because the freshwater conservation concerns are huge.

The Politics of Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in Argentina

The search for political determinants of intergovernmental fiscal relations has shaped much of the recent literature on the economic viability of federalism. This study assesses the explanatory power of two competing views about intergovernmental transfers; one emphasizing the traditional neoclassical approach to federal-subnational fiscal relations and the other suggesting that transfers are contingent on the political fortunes and current political vulnerability of each level of government. The author tests these models using data from Argentina, a federation exhibiting one of the most decentralised fiscal systems in the world and severe imbalances in the territorial distribution of legislative and economic resources. It is shown that overrespresented provinces ruled by governors who belong to opposition parties can bring into play their political overrepresentation to attract shares of federal transfers beyond social welfare criteria and to shield themselves from unwanted reforms to increase fiscal co-responsibilty. This finding suggests that decision makers in federal countries must pay close heed to the need to synchronize institutional reforms and fiscal adjustment.

Cognition, Resources, and Institutions in the Explanation of Attitudes to Free Trade

This article proposes a framework for the analysis of attitudes to foreign trade policies that challenges the traditional skill-endowment approach. The traditional approach assumes informed individuals who calculate the costs and benefits of alternative policies. We propose that individuals lack information and that their positions rest on economic vulnerability, as mediated through risk-aversion. We also stress the role of environmental signals and political endorsements in guiding individuals' views on trade policy. We test this alternative approach with a Spanish survey conducted in May 2009 and the ISSP survey conducted in 2003 in a large number of less developed and more developed countries. The Spanish data show that the population is largely uninformed and that their ideas about the consequences of free trade policy do not explain attitudes among different socio-demographic groups. Meanwhile, the ISSP data contradict important aspects of the traditional approach and are consistent with the alternative approach.

Disseny d'un mètode de valoració d'itineraris d'educació ambiental i aplicació a l'àmbit Parc Natural de l'Alt Pirineu - Alt Urgell

El Parc Natural de l’Alt Pirineu (PNAP) està creant una xarxa d’itineraris d’educació ambiental amb l’objectiu de divulgar els valors del parc i conscienciar els seus visitants sobre la importància de conservar el medi ambient. El desenvolupament de mètodes de valoració de l’aptitud de potencials itineraris d’educació ambiental pot servir per crear eines de gestió molt útils a l’hora d’ampliar aquesta xarxa de senders. Per aquest motiu, un grup anterior de la llicenciatura de Ciències Ambientals va desenvolupar el preprotocol Neret, que permet obtenir una puntuació numèrica per a un itinerari, responent a una sèrie de preguntes senzilles. En el present projecte, s’ha aplicat el protocol anterior a tres itineraris de muntanya per tal d’estudiar-ne el funcionament en un tipus d’itinerari diferent dels de fons de vall, on va ser dissenyat. L’anàlisi del preprotocol s’ha efectuat mitjançant una matriu DAFO, a partir de la qual s’han proposat una sèrie d’estratègies de millora i, a partir d’aquestes, s’ha desenvolupat un nou mètode de valoració. Els principals aspectes negatius del preprotocol són la seva manca de flexibilitat, la sobrevaloració dels criteris relacionats amb la dificultat del recorregut, la manca de detall en l’anàlisi del potencial interpretatiu dels itineraris a més del poc pes que té aquest criteri en la puntuació global i, finalment, l’absència d’un criteri que valori els potencials impactes que es podrien derivar de l’ús de l’itinerari. Aquestes mancances s’han mirat de corregir al mètode de valoració dissenyat en el present projecte mitjançant les següents aportacions: una estructura transversal dividida en quatre factors avaluats per separat, sense criteris de valoració excloents i amb una ponderació final dels quatre principals criteris modificable segons els objectius dels gestors; una valoració més detallada dels continguts de l’itinerari, i finalment, la inclusió d’un nou criteri que considera la vulnerabilitat del medi a qualsevol tipus d’impacte.

The New Institutions of Transatlantic Aviation

This article focuses on the institutions of transatlantic aviation since 1945, and aims at extracting from this historical process topical policy implications. Using the methodology of an analytic narrative, we describe and explain the creation of the international cartel institutions in the 1940s, their operation throughout the 1950s and 60s, their increasing vulnerability in the 1970s, and then the progressive liberalization of the whole system. Our analytic narrative has a natural end, marked by the signing of an Open Skies Agreement between the US and the EU in 2007. We place particular explanatory power on (a) the progressive liberalization of the US domestic market, and (b) the active role of the European Commission in Europe. More specifically, we explain these developments using two frameworks. First, a “political limit pricing” model, which seemed promising, then failed, and then seemed promising again because it failed. Second, a strategic bargaining model inspired by Susanne Schmidt’s analysis of how the European Commission uses the threat of infringement proceedings to force member governments into line and obtain the sole negotiating power in transatlantic aviation.

Vulnerabilidad costera a múltiples agentes : aplicación al litoral catalán

El proyecto “Vulnerabilidad costera a múltiples agentes. Aplicación al litoral Catalán” tiene como objetivo general desarrollar y validar una metodología para evaluar cuantitativamente la vulnerabilidad de las costas sedimentarias a los principales procesos que rigen su comportamiento. Dentro de este contexto y durante un periodo de 6 meses se ha estado trabajando en el principal objetivo parcial del proyecto: el desarrollo de una serie de indicadores de vulnerabilidad costera a procesos físicos, más específicamente en la obtención de un índice de vulnerabilidad costera a temporales. Para ello se ha analizado la variabilidad espacial y temporal de la intensidad de los procesos costeros inducidos por temporales a lo largo de la costa Catalana, teniendo en cuenta únicamente la contribución de las características del oleaje. Se han integrado datos reales y simulados de oleaje de tres sitios distribuidos a lo largo del litoral Catalán para obtener las series temporales de intensidad de los tres procesos costeros derivados de la acción de temporales más relevantes (transporte de sedimentos, erosión e inundación). Los resultados muestran que no existen tendencias significativas en las series temporales de los procesos estudiados. Por otro lado, el análisis de las series de la media móvil de 5 años de las anomalías de dichos procesos refleja tendencias positivas significativas en el transporte de sedimentos y la erosión para las zonas norte y sur de la costa, y en la inundación para la zona sur. En relación a la variabilidad espacial, los resultados muestran que la zona sur es la más vulnerable a los procesos de erosión costera y transporte de sedimentos, mientras que la parte norte es la más vulnerable al proceso de inundación.

Anàlisi multidisciplinària de la vulnerabilitat a la contaminació de les aigües subterrànies: la conca de l'Onyar (Gironès)

En el present projecte s’ha emprat la metodologia DRASTIC per evaluar la vulnerabilitat a la contaminació de les aigües subterrànies de la conca de l’Onyar. El fet de ser una zona de tradició agrícola i ramadera i amb un creixement urbanístic significatiu, la fa ser una zona de gran interès per l’estudi de la vulnerabilitat. Després d’obtenir l’índex DRASTIC s’ha realitzat una campanya al mes de maig de 2011 per analitzar les concentracions de nitrats a la zona per validar l’estudi. Conjuntament amb el mapa d’usos del sòl i la informació de la localització de les depuradores més properes, s’han comparat els resultats d’ambdós mapes. L’anàlisi dels resultats obtinguts ha permès comprovar que la metodologia dóna bons resultats quan s’analitza la vulnerabilitat a nivell de conca. A més a més, utensilis de fàcil abast aporten informació sobre el perill de contaminació, ajudant a la validació del mètode.

Uso del preservativo en estudiantes de secundaria de Mozambique. Diferencias en razón del género y del tipo de pareja = Condom use amongst high school students in Mozambique differences by gender and kind of partners

La mayor parte de las nuevas infecciones con el VIH en el mundo se producen por transmisión sexual entre adultos jóvenes y se aprecia una mayor vulnerabilidad en las mujeres (Gregson et al., 2002). Los principales objetivos de este trabajo son: estudiar la prevalencia del uso auto informado del preservativo durante la última relación sexual en los estudiantes de secundaria de Mozambique y la intención de emplearlo en las futuras relaciones, sea con la pareja actual o con una ocasional. Los resultados muestran que: 1) el 47% de los va rones y el 62% de las mujeres no utilizaron el preservativo, 2) tanto ellos como ellas están más seguros de que lo utilizarán con una pareja ocasional que con la actual y 3) los que emplearon el preservativo en su última relación sexual tienen más intención de volver a usarlo que aquellos que no lo emplearon

Institucionalització i salut mental

La complexitat de l’atenció de la salut mental i les toxicomanies, en joves institucionalitzats en centres de justícia juvenil, condicionada tant pels propis dèficits de salut, com per les condicions ambientals de l’internament. L’objectiu de la recerca és analitzar la clínica desadaptativa dels joves interns i la seva associació a la presència d’antecedents de consum de tòxics. El disseny de la recerca és un estudi longitudinal de les urgències mèdiques generades en el Centre Educatiu L’Alzina (Barcelona), des de l’1 de gener de 2001 fins el 31 de desembre del mateix any. La metodologia utilitza l’ajust de models multivariants mitjançant Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) amb error binomial negativa, es calcula el risc de produir-se una demanda per agitació o autolesió, i la seva associació amb la presència d’antecedents de consum de tòxics. Respecte als resultats més destacats: el 59,4% del total de demandes urgents varen ser per episodis d’agitació o autolesió, concentrant-se aquests en el 33% dels interns. Les prevalences de consum de tòxics variaven des d’un 13,2% respecte dels al•lucinògens fins un 71,7% del cannabis, amb un 36,8% de politoxicòmans i un 5,7% d’usuaris de drogues per via parenteral. La població nacional presentà una major prevalença d’hàbits tòxics. Com a principals conclusions de l’estudi, es confirma la hipòtesi general d’una major associació entre antecedents de consum de tòxics i presentació d’episodis de malestar psíquic agut, per bé que limitada al mòdul d’ingrés (inicial). En la resta de grups influirien altres factors, com podria ser la pressió ambiental. Pressió que, almenys en el mòdul intensiu, tot sembla indicar que seria determinant. Els resultats suggereixen doncs, la conveniència de revisar tant les estratègies d’intervenció i abordatge de les toxicomanies, com el disseny ambiental de la institució. S’apunta la necessitat d’investigacions futures amb la incorporació de tècniques qualitatives d’anàlisi. ...