International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions oncivil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars aremore likely to start following downturns in the internationalprice of countries main export commodities. The data showa robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreakof civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries aremore likely to see civil wars following economic downturnsin their main OECD export destinations.

Long-range transport of Saharan dust to northern Europe: The 11-16 October 2001 outbreak observed with EARLINET

The spread of mineral particles over southwestern, western, and central Europeresulting from a strong Saharan dust outbreak in October 2001 was observed at10 stations of the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET). For the firsttime, an optically dense desert dust plume over Europe was characterized coherentlywith high vertical resolution on a continental scale. The main layer was located abovethe boundary layer (above 1-km height above sea level (asl)) up to 3–5-km height, andtraces of dust particles reached heights of 7–8 km. The particle optical depth typicallyranged from 0.1 to 0.5 above 1-km height asl at the wavelength of 532 nm, andmaximum values close to 0.8 were found over northern Germany. The lidar observationsare in qualitative agreement with values of optical depth derived from Total OzoneMapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data. Ten-day backward trajectories clearly indicated theSahara as the source region of the particles and revealed that the dust layer observed,e.g., over Belsk, Poland, crossed the EARLINET site Aberystwyth, UK, and southernScandinavia 24–48 hours before. Lidar-derived particle depolarization ratios,backscatter- and extinction-related A ° ngstro¨m exponents, and extinction-to-backscatterratios mainly ranged from 15 to 25%, 0.5 to 0.5, and 40–80 sr, respectively, within thelofted dust plumes. A few atmospheric model calculations are presented showing the dustconcentration over Europe. The simulations were found to be consistent with thenetwork observations.

An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak

This paper presents an observational study of the tornado outbreak that took place on the 7 September 2005 in the Llobregat delta river, affecting a densely populated and urbanised area and the Barcelona International airport (NE Spain). The site survey confirmed at least five short-lived tornadoes. Four of them were weak (F0, F1) and the other one was significant (F2 on the Fujita scale). They started mostly as waterspouts and moved later inland causing extensive damage estimated in 9 million Euros, three injured people but fortunately no fatalities. Large scale forcing was provided by upper level diffluence and low level warm air advection. Satellite and weather radar images revealed the development of the cells that spawned the waterspouts along a mesoscale convergence line in a highly sheared and relatively low buoyant environment. Further analysis indicated characteristics that could be attributed indistinctively to non-supercell or to mini-supercell thunderstorms.

Foodborne norovirus outbreak: the role of an asymptomatic food handler

Background: In July 2005 an outbreak of acute gastroenteritis occurred on a residential summer camp in the province of Barcelona (northeast of Spain). Forty-four people were affected among residents and employees. All of them had in common a meal at lunch time on 13 July (paella, round of beef and fruit). The aim of this study was to investigate a foodborne norovirus outbreak that occurred in the residential summer camp and in which the implication of a food handler was demonstrated by laboratory tests. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was designed. Personal or telephone interview was carried out to collect demographic, clinical and microbiological data of the exposed people, as well as food consumption in the suspected lunch. Food handlers of the mentioned summer camp were interviewed. Ten stool samples were requested from symptomatic exposed residents and the three food handlers that prepared the suspected food. Stools were tested for bacteries and noroviruses. Norovirus was detected using RT-PCR and sequence analysis. Attack rate, relative risks (RR) and its 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to assess the association between food consumption and disease. Results: The global attack rate of the outbreak was 55%. The main symptoms were abdominal pain (90%), nausea (85%), vomiting (70%) and diarrhoea (42.5%). The disease remitted in 24-48 hours. Norovirus was detected in seven faecal samples, one of them was from an asymptomatic food handler who had not eaten the suspected food (round of beef), but cooked and served the lunch. Analysis of the two suspected foods isolated no pathogenic bacteria and detected no viruses. Molecular analysis showed that the viral strain was the same in ill patients and in the asymptomatic food handler (genotype GII.2 Melksham-like). Conclusions: In outbreaks of foodborne disease, the search for viruses in affected patients and all food handlers, even in those that are asymptomatic, is essential. Health education of food handlers with respect to hand washing should be promoted.

Living in the Wrong Neighbourhood: State Failure and its Implications for Neighbouring Countries

Why and how do failed states affect neighbouring countries? The attention of the international community towards state failure has grown significantly in recent years, improving the understanding of this phenomenon; nevertheless, the knowledge about the influence of state failure on neighbouring countries remain scarce. This research aims at contributing to filling up the existing gap by analyzing two different cases of state failure –Liberia and Afghanistan– and its consequences on four of their neighbours –Sierra Leone, Guinea, Pakistan and Tajikistan. More concretely, this research investigates the importance of insurgency movements in the relationship between these countries. The research argues that failed states generate conflict-enhancing mechanisms –which might lead to conflict outbreak– in their neighbours through the creation of informal networks. The empiric evidence shows how insurgency-based informal networks have a decisive role in the outbreak of conflict.

Auditing the management of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks: the need for a tool

Public health activities, especially infectious disease control, depend on effective teamwork. We present the results of a pilot audit questionnaire aimed at assessing the quality of public health services in the management of VPD outbreaks. Audit questionnaire with three main areas indicators (structure, process and results) was developed. Guidelines were set and each indicator was assessed by three auditors. Differences in indicator scores according to median size of outbreaks were determined by ANOVA (significance at p (greater than or equal to) 0.05). Of 154 outbreaks; eighteen indicators had a satisfactory mean score, indicator "updated guidelines" and "timely reporting" had a poor mean score (2.84±106 and 2.44±1.67, respectively). Statistically significant differences were found according to outbreak size, in the indicators "availability of guidelines/protocol updated less than 3 years ago" (p = 0.03) and "days needed for outbreak control" (p = 0.04). Improving availability of updated guidelines, enhancing timely reporting and adequate recording of control procedures taken is needed to allow for management assessment and improvement.

Ancient dispersal of the human fungal pathogen Cryptococcus gattii from the Amazon rainforest

Over the past two decades, several fungal outbreaks have occurred, including the high-profile 'Vancouver Island' and 'Pacific Northwest' outbreaks, caused by Cryptococcus gattii, which has affected hundreds of otherwise healthy humans and animals. Over the same time period, C. gattii was the cause of several additional case clusters at localities outside of the tropical and subtropical climate zones where the species normally occurs. In every case, the causative agent belongs to a previously rare genotype of C. gattii called AFLP6/VGII, but the origin of the outbreak clades remains enigmatic. Here we used phylogenetic and recombination analyses, based on AFLP and multiple MLST datasets, and coalescence gene genealogy to demonstrate that these outbreaks have arisen from a highly-recombining C. gattii population in the native rainforest of Northern Brazil. Thus the modern virulent C. gattii AFLP6/VGII outbreak lineages derived from mating events in South America and then dispersed to temperate regions where they cause serious infections in humans and animals.

The Francoist repression in the Catalan Countries

This article offers an overview of Francoist repression in the Catalan Countries from the outbreak of the Civil War to the first decade after the establishment of the dictatorship. It covers both physical violence and measures such as economic repression, imprisonment, professional purges and the social and moral control to which the population as a whole was subjected. First the type of violence and domination exercised by the insurgents in the territories occupied is briefly examined. Then the author offers an account of the events: she commences in the summer of 1936 in Majorca, the only Catalan-speaking territory to remain in rebel hands, then proceeds to the Lleida region, which was occupied in the spring of 1938, and concludes with the final offensive against Catalonia and Valencia, launched in the winter of that same year. Special stress is laid on the repercussions of the 1939 Law of Political Responsibilities and the meaning attached by the occupiers to the pacification and reconstruction of the conquered territories.

Two different epidemiological scenarios of border disease in the populations of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra p. pyrenaica) after the first disease outbreaks

Since 2001 several outbreaks of a new disease associated with Border disease virus (BDV) infection have caused important declines in Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica) populations in the Pyrenees. The goal of this study was to analyze the post-outbreak BDV epidemiology in the first two areas affected by disease with the aim to establish if the infection has become endemic. We also investigated if BDV infected wild and domestic ruminants sharing habitat with chamois. Unexpectedly, we found different epidemiological scenarios in each population. Since the disease outbreaks, some chamois populations recuperated quickly, while others did not recover as expected. In chamois from the first areas, prevalence was high (73.47%) and constant throughout the whole study period and did not differ between chamois born before and after the BDV outbreak; in all, BDV was detected by RT-PCR in six chamois. In the other areas, prevalence was lower (52.79%) and decreased during the study period; as well, prevalence was significantly lower in chamois born after the disease outbreak. No BDV were detected in this population. A comparative virus neutralisation test performed with four BDV strains and one Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) strain showed that all the chamois had BDV-specific antibodies. Pestivirus antibodies were detected in all the rest of analyzed species, with low prevalence values in wild ruminants and moderate values in domestic ruminants. No viruses were detected in these species. These results confirm the hypothesis that outbreaks of BDV infection only affect the Pyrenean chamois, although other wild ruminants can occasionally be infected. In conclusion, two different scenarios have appeared since the first border disease outbreaks in Pyrenean chamois: on the one hand frequent BDV circulation with possible negative impact on population dynamics in some areas and on the other, lack of virus circulation and quick recovery of the chamois population.

Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Spain, 1845-1935

Between the mid-nineteenth century and the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War in 1936, Spain undertook a sustained process of economic growth and structural change, but was unable to converge with the core European economies.1 The reasons behind Spain"s failure to converge have been a subject of debate among historians for decades. 2 This dissertation aims to analyze the role played by infrastructure in Spanish economic growth during that period, and tries to find out to what extent the potential shortage or inadequacy of the Spanish infrastructure endowment was one of the factors to blame for the country"s nonconvergence. The dissertation draws on recent research on the economic impact of infrastructure, and on the numerous attempts to measure that impact which have been undertaken in the wake of David Aschauer"s work on the United States.

Bloomsbury i la biografia : "La reina Victòria" de Lytton Strachey en català

La reina Victòria, de l’escriptor anglès Lytton Strachey, arribà a Catalunya el 1935, dos anys després de la mort de l’autor i catorze després que aparegués per primera vegada a Londres amb un excepcional acolliment. Publicada per l’editorial Atena i traduïda pel polític, pedagog i escriptor Pau Romeva, rebé tots els honors de la crítica, que l’erigiren com un dels models europeus del gènere biogràfic, molt en voga les primeres dècades del segle xx. Aquest article analitza la recepció catalana de la traducció de La reina Victòria, editada pocs mesos abans d’esclatar la guerra civil. Molts factors confluïren perquè fos una versió única, irrepetible.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

Epidemiology of measles virus outbreaks in Catalonia: importance of immunization in the elimination era

Eradicating measles represents a major public health achievement, yet outbreaks still occur in territories where endemic measles virus (MV) had been eliminated. In Catalonia from the year 2000 cases have occurred as isolated cases or small outbreaks, both linked to imported cases up to the end of 2006 when a large outbreak started out affecting mainly children ≤15m. In consequence, immunization schedule was amended lowering first dose to 12m. Again new MV importations from neighboring countries triggered another outbreak on November 2010 with a different age distribution sparing small children from infection. Differences in incidence (IR), rate ratio (RR) and 95% CI and hospitalization rate (HR) by age group were determined. Statistic z was used for comparing proportions. Total number of confirmed cases was 305 vs 381 in 2006; mean age 20 yrs (SD 14.8yrs; 3m -51yrs) vs 15m (SD13.1yrs; 1m-50yrs). Highest proportion of cases was set in ≥25yrs (47%) vs 24.2% in 2006 (p<0.001). Difference in IR for ≤ 15m was statistically significant (49/100,000 vs 278.2/100,000; RR:3.9; 95%CI 2.9-5.4) and in HR 30.2% vs 15.7% (p<0.001). The change of the month of administration of the first dose proved successful. Given the current epidemiological situation, continued awareness and efforts to reach young adult population are needed to stop the spread of the virus.

Epidemiology of measles virus outbreaks in Catalonia: importance of immunization in the elimination era

Eradicating measles represents a major public health achievement, yet outbreaks still occur in territories where endemic measles virus (MV) had been eliminated. In Catalonia from the year 2000 cases have occurred as isolated cases or small outbreaks, both linked to imported cases up to the end of 2006 when a large outbreak started out affecting mainly children ≤15m. In consequence, immunization schedule was amended lowering first dose to 12m. Again new MV importations from neighboring countries triggered another outbreak on November 2010 with a different age distribution sparing small children from infection. Differences in incidence (IR), rate ratio (RR) and 95% CI and hospitalization rate (HR) by age group were determined. Statistic z was used for comparing proportions. Total number of confirmed cases was 305 vs 381 in 2006; mean age 20 yrs (SD 14.8yrs; 3m -51yrs) vs 15m (SD13.1yrs; 1m-50yrs). Highest proportion of cases was set in ≥25yrs (47%) vs 24.2% in 2006 (p<0.001). Difference in IR for ≤ 15m was statistically significant (49/100,000 vs 278.2/100,000; RR:3.9; 95%CI 2.9-5.4) and in HR 30.2% vs 15.7% (p<0.001). The change of the month of administration of the first dose proved successful. Given the current epidemiological situation, continued awareness and efforts to reach young adult population are needed to stop the spread of the virus.