Human capital in growth regressions: how much difference does data quality make? An update and further results

We construct estimates of educational attainment for a sample of OECD countries using previously unexploited sources. We follow a heuristic approach to obtain plausible time profiles for attainment levels by removing sharp breaks in the data that seem to reflect changes in classification criteria. We then construct indicators of the information content of our series and a number of previously available data sets and examine their performance in several growth specifications. We find a clear positive correlation between data quality and the size and significance of human capital coefficients in growth regressions. Using an extension of the classical errors in variables model, we construct a set of meta-estimates of the coefficient of years of schooling in an aggregate Cobb-Douglas production function. Our results suggest that, after correcting for measurement error bias, the value of this parameter is well above 0.50.

Improved nonparametric confidence intervals in time series regressions

Condence intervals in econometric time series regressions suffer fromnotorious coverage problems. This is especially true when the dependencein the data is noticeable and sample sizes are small to moderate, as isoften the case in empirical studies. This paper suggests using thestudentized block bootstrap and discusses practical issues, such as thechoice of the block size. A particular data-dependent method is proposedto automate the method. As a side note, it is pointed out that symmetricconfidence intervals are preferred over equal-tailed ones, since theyexhibit improved coverage accuracy. The improvements in small sampleperformance are supported by a simulation study.

Finite sample nonparametric tests for linear regressions

We introduce several exact nonparametric tests for finite sample multivariatelinear regressions, and compare their powers. This fills an important gap inthe literature where the only known nonparametric tests are either asymptotic,or assume one covariate only.

I just ran four million regressions

In this paper I try to move away from the Extreme Bounds method ofidentifying ``robust'' empirical relations in the economic growth literature.Instead of analyzing the extreme bounds of the estimates of the coefficientof a particular variable, I analyze the entire distribution. My claimin this paper is that, if we do this, the picture emerging from theempirical growth literature is not the pessimistic ``Nothing is Robust''that we get with the extreme bound analysis. Instead, we find that asubstantial number of variables can be found to be strongly relatedto growth.

Exact tests for correlation and for the slope in simple linear regressions without making assumptions

We present an exact test for whether two random variables that have known bounds on their support are negatively correlated. The alternative hypothesis is that they are not negatively correlated. No assumptions are made on the underlying distributions. We show by example that the Spearman rank correlation test as the competing exact test of correlation in nonparametric settings rests on an additional assumption on the data generating process without which it is not valid as a test for correlation.We then show how to test for the significance of the slope in a linear regression analysis that invovles a single independent variable and where outcomes of the dependent variable belong to a known bounded set.

Human capital in a global and knowledge-based economy. Part 2. Asssessment at the EU country level.

This report is an extension and partial update of de la Fuente and Ciccone (2002). It constructs estimates of the private and social rates of return on schooling for fourteen EU countries using microeconometric estimates of Mincerian wage equations, the results of cross-country growth regressions and OECD data on educational expenditures, tax rates and social benefits. The results are used to draw some tentative conclusions regarding the optimality of observed investment patterns and educational subsidy levels.

Democracy and the curse of natural resources

We propose a theoretical model to explain empirical regularities related to the curse of natural resources. This is an explicitly political model which emphasizes the behavior and incentives of politicians. We extend the standard voting model to give voters political control beyond the elections. This gives rise to a new restriction into our political economy model: policies should not give rise to a revolution. Our model clarifies when resource discoveries might lead to revolutions, namely, in countries with weak institutions. Natural resources may be bad for democracy by harming political turnover. Our model also suggests a non-linear dependence of human capital on natural resources. For low levels of democracy human capital depends negatively on natural resources, while for high levels of democracy the dependence is reversed. This theoretical finding is corroborated in both cross section and panel data regressions.

Effects of competition over quality-adjusted price indexes: an application to the Spanish automobile market

Using a newly constructed data set, we calculate quality-adjusted price indexes after estimating hedonic price regressions from 1988 to 2004 in the Spanish automobile market. The increasing competition was favoured by the removal of trade restrictions and the special plans for the renewal of the Spanish automobile fleet. We find that the increasing degree of competition during those years led to an overall drop in automobile prices by 20 percent which implied considerable consumer gains thanks to higher market efficiency. Additionally, our results indicate that loyalty relevance and discrepancies in automobile reliability declined during those years. This is captured.

Rosca participation in Benin: a commitment issue

In the light of first-hand data from a Beninese urban household survey in Cotonou, we investigate several motives aiming to explain participation in Rotating Savings and Credit Associations. We provide anecdotal pieces of evidence, descriptive statistics, FIML regressions and matching estimates which tend to indicate that most individuals use their participation in a rosca as a device to commit themselves to save money and to deal with self-control problems.

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

Are two-part tariffs efficient when consumers plan ahead?: An empirical study

During the last two decades there has been an increase in using dynamic tariffs for billing household electricity consumption. This has questioned the suitability of traditional pricing schemes, such as two-part tariffs, since they contribute to create marked peak and offpeak demands. The aim of this paper is to assess if two-part tariffs are an efficient pricing scheme using Spanish household electricity microdata. An ordered probit model with instrumental variables on the determinants of power level choice and non-paramentric spline regressions on the electricity price distribution will allow us to distinguish between the tariff structure choice and the simultaneous demand decisions. We conclude that electricity consumption and dwellings’ and individuals’ characteristics are key determinants of the fixed charge paid by Spanish households Finally, the results point to the inefficiency of the two-part tariff as those consumers who consume more electricity pay a lower price than the others.

Determinació de la deposició atmosfèrica de metalls pesants a les Muntanyes de Prades (Tarragona) a partir dels bioindicadors Xanthoria parietina i Hypnum cupressiforme

En aquest estudi s’ha determinat la deposició atmosfèrica de metalls pesants a partir dels bioindicadors Xanthoria parietina (liquen) i Hypnum cupressiforme (molsa), en 16 punts de mostreig repartits per la zona on s’ubicarà el futur parc natural de les Muntanyes de Prades (Tarragona). A partir de la comparació de les concentracions obtingudes en aquest treball amb les d’altres estudis de plantejament equiparable, es va comprovar que la majoria de valors de concentració dels metalls eren similars als d’altres zones geogràfiques estudiades, a excepció del crom i el níquel, que presentaven valors clarament més elevats. A partir de proves estadístiques (ANOVA, regressions múltiples) es va determinar que existien diferències significatives entre les concentracions de metalls dels diferents punts de mostreig. També es van detectar correlacions significatives entre les concentracions dels punts de mostreig i la distància d’aquests respecte els focus potencials de contaminació que s’havien considerat prèviament. Amb les dades obtingudes a partir un petit anàlisi de la riquesa liquènica dels punts de mostreig, es va disposar d’informació extra per poder avaluar les fonts i el patró de distribució d’aquests contaminants.

Environmental Kuznets Curves for Carbon Emissions: A Critical Survey

The empirical finding of an inverse U-shaped relationship between per capita income and pollution, the so-called Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), suggests that as countries experience economic growth, environmental deterioration decelerates and thus becomes less of an issue. Focusing on the prime example of carbon emissions, the present article provides a critical review of the new econometric techniques that have questioned the baseline polynomial specification in the EKC literature. We discuss issues related to the functional form, heterogeneity, “spurious” regressions and spatial dependence to address whether and to what extent the EKC can be observed. Despite these new approaches, there is still no clear-cut evidence supporting the existence of the EKC for carbon emissions. JEL classifications: C20; Q32; Q50; O13 Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve; Carbon emissions; Functional form; Heterogeneity; “Spurious” regressions; Spatial dependence.Residential satisfaction is often used as a barometer to assess the performance of public policy and programmes designed to raise individuals' well-being. However, the fact that responses elicited from residents might be biased by subjective, non-observable factors casts doubt on whether these responses can be taken as trustable indicators of the individuals' housing situation. Emotional factors such as aspirations or expectations might affect individuals' cognitions of their true residential situation. To disentangle this puzzle, we investigated whether identical residential attributes can be perceived differently depending on tenure status. Our results indicate that tenure status is crucial not only in determining the level of housing satisfaction, but also regarding how dwellers perceive their housing characteristics. Keywords: Housing satisfaction, subjective well-being, homeownership. JEL classification: D1, R2.