Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Since conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. Monte Carlo results show that the estimator performs well in comparison to other estimators that have been proposed for estimation of general DLV models.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Detecció, identificació de Mycobacterium tuberculosis i caracterització molecular de la resistència als principals antituberculosos en mostra clínica directa mitjançant piroseqüenciació: aplicabilitat en l’estudi de la clonalitat de les soques.

L’augment de soques de Mycobacerium tuberculosis multiresistents i l’aparició de soques extremadament resistents, ha posat de manifest la necessitat de disposar de nous mètodes de detecció precoç de M.tuberculosis i les seves resistències als principals fàrmacs antituberculosos, així com l’estudi eficaç dels brots, per a poder dur a terme un control eficient de la malaltia. L’objectiu de l’estudi va ser determinar la capacitat de la piroseqüenciació per a detectar i identificar micobacteris a partir d’aïllats clínics i mostra directa, determinar el seu patró de resistència a Rifampicina, Isoniacida, Etambutol, Fluoroquinolones, Canamicina i Capreomicina i explorar la seva potencialitat per a ser emprada en el tipatge molecular de les soques. Mitjançant la optimització de la tecnologia de la piroseqüenciació pels gens analitzats, i el disseny de primers específics, hem verificat la utilitat de la piroseqüenciació per al maneig de la tuberculosi. S’ha pogut estudiar la presència de mutacions relacionades amb resistències a fàrmacs de primera línia en el 96.5% de les posicions analitzades en soca clínica i en el 70.4% en mostra directa. Van concordar amb el resultats obtinguts per altres mètodes fenotípics i/o fenotípics el 97.1% i el 98.2% del resultats obtinguts en soca clínica i mostra directa respectivament. La piroseqüenciació ens ha permet analitzar la presència de mutacions relacionades amb resistències a antituberculosos de segona línia, servint com a mètode de confirmació en l’anàlisi d’altres mètodes genotípics. La tècnica ens ha permès també identificar els principals micobacteris no tuberculosos implicats en la infecció humana, sòls o en coinfecció. Resultats preliminars mostren que l’anàlisi amb piroseqüenciació pot ser d’utilitat per l’estudi clonal de les soques de M.tuberculosis. Les nostres observacions mostren la piroseqüenciació com una eina valuosa en l’àmbit clínic, ja que permet una reducció de la demora del diagnòstic, estudi filogenètic i detecció de resistències M.tuberculosis, i per tant una millora de l’aplicació del tractament adequat, ajudant al control de la malaltia.

Estacionalidad de la tuberculosis en el área del Hospital Universitario Dr Peset de Valencia

La tuberculosi (TB) és una malaltia infecciosa. Diversos estudis han analitzat l'existència d'un patró estacional en la seva presentació amb resultats discordants. Ens vam proposar conèixer el patró estacional de diagnòstic de la malaltia en l'àrea del nostre hospital. Realitzem un estudi observacional prospectiu de tots els pacients, diagnosticats de TB durant el període 2002-2009 en el nostre Departament. Per a l'anàlisi estadística de les dades recollides s'ha utilitzat l'aplicació informàtica SPSS 15.0. amb un nivell de significació: p &0,05. En el nostre medi i clima, el diagnòstic de la tuberculosi pulmonar predomina durant els mesos càlids. Aquest predomini no s'ha relacionat amb les característiques socio-demogràfiques ni clíniques dels pacients.

Life-Cycle Effects on Household Expenditures: A Latent-Variable Approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life- cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

Lyfe-cycle effects on household expenditures: A latent-variable approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life-cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

Predictors of death among patients who completed tuberculosis treatment: a population-based cohort study.

Background: Mortality among patients who complete tuberculosis (TB) treatment is still high among vulnerable populations. The objective of the study was to identify the probability of death and its predictive factors in a cohort of successfully treated TB patients. Methods: A population-based retrospective longitudinal study was performed in Barcelona, Spain. All patients who successfully completed TB treatment with culture-confirmation and available drug susceptibility testing between 1995 1997 were retrospectively followed-up until December 31, 2005 by the Barcelona TB Control Program. Socio-demographic, clinical, microbiological and treatment variables were examined. Mortality, TB Program and AIDS registries were reviewed. Kaplan-Meier and a Cox regression methods with time-dependent covariates were used for the survival analysis, calculating the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Among the 762 included patients, the median age was 36 years, 520 (68.2%) were male, 178 (23.4%) HIV-infected, and 208 (27.3%) were alcohol abusers. Of the 134 (17.6%) injecting drug users (IDU), 123 (91.8%) were HIV-infected. A total of 30 (3.9%) recurrences and 173 deaths (22.7%) occurred (mortality rate: 3.4/100 person-years of follow-up). The predictors of death were: age between 4160 years old (HR: 3.5; CI:2.15.7), age greater than 60 years (HR: 14.6; CI:8.924), alcohol abuse (HR: 1.7; CI:1.22.4) and HIV-infected IDU (HR: 7.9; CI:4.713.3). Conclusions: The mortality rate among TB patients who completed treatment is associated with vulnerable populations such as the elderly, alcohol abusers, and HIV-infected IDU. We therefore need to fight against poverty, and promote and develop interventions and social policies directed towards these populations to improve their survival.

Tuberculosis y odontología

Se presenta en este artículo una revisión de los aspectos fundamentales de la tuberculosis y sus implicaciones en odontología. La tuberculosis, un importante problema de salud pública en la primera mitad del siglo pasado, disminuyó progresivamente su incidencia desde entonces a consecuencia de la mejoría en las condiciones de vida, las medidas de prevención y los progresos en el tratamiento. Sin embargo, la aparición de nuevas cepas de Mycobacterium tuberculosis resistentes a varios fármacos utilizados en el tratamiento y el aumento de su incidencia en inmunodeprimidos y otros grupos de población, agrava este problema. La tuberculosis se transmite, principalmente, por vía aérea. Cabe pues la posibilidad de que sea transmitida en el ejercicio de la profesión y aunque parece que el riesgo de transmisión es bajo, está indicado la introducción de medidas preventivas que reduzcan el riesgo.

Interferon-gamma release assays for the diagnosis of tuberculosis and tuberculosis infection in HIV-infected adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Despite the widespread use of interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs), their role in diagnosing tuberculosis and targeting preventive therapy in HIV-infected patients remains unclear. We conducted a comprehensive systematic review to contribute to the evidence-based practice in HIV-infected people. Methodology/Principal Findings: We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane, and Biomedicine databases to identify articles published between January 2005 and July 2011 that assessed QuantiFERON H -TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) and T-SPOT H .TB (T-SPOT.TB) in HIV-infected adults. We assessed their accuracy for the diagnosis of tuberculosis and incident active tuberculosis, and the proportion of indeterminate results. The search identified 38 evaluable studies covering a total of 6514 HIV-infected participants. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for tuberculosis were 61% and 72% for QFT-GIT, and 65% and 70% for T-SPOT.TB. The cumulative incidence of subsequent active tuberculosis was 8.3% for QFT-GIT and 10% for T-SPOT.TB in patients tested positive (one study each), and 0% for QFT-GIT (two studies) and T-SPOT.TB (one study) respectively in those tested negative. Pooled indeterminate rates were 8.2% for QFT-GIT and 5.9% for T-SPOT.TB. Rates were higher in high burden settings (12.0% for QFT-GIT and 7.7% for T-SPOT.TB) than in low-intermediate burden settings (3.9% for QFT-GIT and 4.3% for T-SPOT.TB). They were also higher in patients with CD4 + T-cell count, 200 (11.6% for QFT-GIT and 11.4% for T-SPOT.TB) than in those with CD4 + T-cell count $ 200 (3.1% for QFT-GIT and 7.9% for T-SPOT.TB). Conclusions/Significance: IGRAs have suboptimal accuracy for confirming or ruling out active tuberculosis disease in HIV-infected adults. While their predictive value for incident active tuberculosis is modest, a negative QFT-GIT implies a very low short- to medium-term risk. Identifying the factors associated with indeterminate results will help to optimize the use of IGRAs in clinical practice, particularly in resource-limited countries with a high prevalence of HIV-coinfection.

Diagnosis of tuberculosis infection using interferon-γ-based assays

Interferon-γ-based assays, collectively known as IFN-γ release assays (IGRAs), have emerged as a reliable alternative to the old tuberculin skin test (TST) for the immunodiagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) infection. The 2 commercially available tests, the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), QuantiFERON-TB Gold Intube (QFT-IT), and the enzyme-linked immunospot assay (ELISPOT), T-SPOT.TB, are more accurate than TST for the diagnosis of TB, since they are highly specific and correlate better with the existence of risk factors for the infection. According to the available data, T-SPOT.TB obtains a higher number of positive results than QFT-IT, while its specificity seems to be lower. Although the sensitivity of the IFN-γ -based assays may be impaired to some extent by cellular immunosuppression and extreme ages of life, they perform better than TST in these situations. Data from longitudinal studies suggest that IFN-γ-based tests are better predictors of subsequent development of active TB than TST; however this prognostic value has not been consistently demonstrated. This review focuses on the clinical use of the IFN-γ -based tests in different risk TB groups, and notes the main limitations and areas for future development.

Influence of M. tuberculosis lineage variability within a clinical trial for pulmonary tuberculosis.

Recent studies suggest that M. tuberculosis lineage and host genetics interact to impact how active tuberculosis presents clinically. We determined the phylogenetic lineages of M. tuberculosis isolates from participants enrolled in the Tuberculosis Trials Consortium Study 28, conducted in Brazil, Canada, South Africa, Spain, Uganda and the United States, and secondarily explored the relationship between lineage, clinical presentation and response to treatment. Large sequence polymorphisms and single nucleotide polymorphisms were analyzed to determine lineage and sublineage of isolates. Of 306 isolates genotyped, 246 (80.4%) belonged to the Euro-American lineage, with sublineage 724 predominating at African sites (99/192, 51.5%), and the Euro-American strains other than 724 predominating at non-African sites (89/114, 78.1%). Uneven distribution of lineages across regions limited our ability to discern significant associations, nonetheless, in univariate analyses, Euro-American sublineage 724 was associated with more severe disease at baseline, and along with the East Asian lineage was associated with lower bacteriologic conversion after 8 weeks of treatment. Disease presentation and response to drug treatment varied by lineage, but these associations were no longer statistically significant after adjustment for other variables associated with week-8 culture status.

Tuberculosis neonatal

PROTOCOLOS TERAPEUTICOS. TUBERCULOSIS NEONATAL 1. CONCEPTO La tuberculosis neonatal es la infección del recién nacido producida por el bacilo de Koch. Es una situación rara pero grave que requiere un diagnóstico precoz y un tratamiento enérgico..