The underestimation of compliance to direct help requests explained by adaptive sampling

Helping behavior is any intentional behavior that benefits another living being or group (Hogg & Vaughan, 2010). People tend to underestimate the probability that others will comply with their direct requests for help (Flynn & Lake, 2008). This implies that when they need help, they will assess the probability of getting it (De Paulo, 1982, cited in Flynn & Lake, 2008) and then they will tend to estimate one that is actually lower than the real chance, so they may not even consider worth asking for it. Existing explanations for this phenomenon attribute it to a mistaken cost computation by the help seeker, who will emphasize the instrumental cost of “saying yes”, ignoring that the potential helper also needs to take into account the social cost of saying “no”. And the truth is that, especially in face-to-face interactions, the discomfort caused by refusing to help can be very high. In short, help seekers tend to fail to realize that it might be more costly to refuse to comply with a help request rather than accepting. A similar effect has been observed when estimating trustworthiness of people. Fetchenhauer and Dunning (2010) showed that people also tend to underestimate it. This bias is reduced when, instead of asymmetric feedback (getting feedback only when deciding to trust the other person), symmetric feedback (always given) was provided. This cause could as well be applicable to help seeking as people only receive feedback when they actually make their request but not otherwise. Fazio, Shook, and Eiser (2004) studied something that could be reinforcing these outcomes: Learning asymmetries. By means of a computer game called BeanFest, they showed that people learn better about negatively valenced objects (beans in this case) than about positively valenced ones. This learning asymmetry esteemed from “information gain being contingent on approach behavior” (p. 293), which could be identified with what Fetchenhauer and Dunning mention as ‘asymmetric feedback’, and hence also with help requests. Fazio et al. also found a generalization asymmetry in favor of negative attitudes versus positive ones. They attributed it to a negativity bias that “weights resemblance to a known negative more heavily than resemblance to a positive” (p. 300). Applied to help seeking scenarios, this would mean that when facing an unknown situation, people would tend to generalize and infer that is more likely that they get a negative rather than a positive outcome from it, so, along with what it was said before, people will be more inclined to think that they will get a “no” when requesting help. Denrell and Le Mens (2011) present a different perspective when trying to explain judgment biases in general. They deviate from the classical inappropriate information processing (depicted among other by Fiske & Taylor, 2007, and Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and explain this in terms of ‘adaptive sampling’. Adaptive sampling is a sampling mechanism in which the selection of sample items is conditioned by the values of the variable of interest previously observed (Thompson, 2011). Sampling adaptively allows individuals to safeguard themselves from experiences they went through once and turned out to lay negative outcomes. However, it also prevents them from giving a second chance to those experiences to get an updated outcome that could maybe turn into a positive one, a more positive one, or just one that regresses to the mean, whatever direction that implies. That, as Denrell and Le Mens (2011) explained, makes sense: If you go to a restaurant, and you did not like the food, you do not choose that restaurant again. This is what we think could be happening when asking for help: When we get a “no”, we stop asking. And here, we want to provide a complementary explanation for the underestimation of the probability that others comply with our direct help requests based on adaptive sampling. First, we will develop and explain a model that represents the theory. Later on, we will test it empirically by means of experiments, and will elaborate on the analysis of its results.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.

Sex differences in hospital readmission among colorectal cancer patients.

Background: While several studies have analysed sex and socioeconomic differences in cancer incidence and mortality, sex differences in oncological health care have been seldom considered. Objective: To investigate sex based inequalities in hospital readmission among patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Hospital Universitary in L¿Hospitalet (Barcelona, Spain). Participants: Four hundred and three patients diagnosed with colorectal between January 1996 and December 1998 were actively followed up until 2002. Main outcome measurements and methods: Hospital readmission times related to colorectal cancer after surgical procedure. Cox proportional model with random effect (frailty) was used to estimate hazard rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals of readmission time for covariates analysed. Results: Crude hazard rate ratio of hospital readmission in men was 1.61 (95% CI 1.21 to 2.15). When other significant determinants of readmission were controlled for (including Dukes¿s stage, mortality, and Charlson¿s index) a significant risk of readmission was still present for men (hazard rate ratio: 1.52, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.96). Conclusions: In the case of colorectal cancer, women are less likely than men to be readmitted to the hospital, even after controlling for tumour characteristics, mortality, and comorbidity. New studies should investigate the role of other non-clinical variable such as differences in help seeking behaviours or structural or personal sex bias in the attention given to patients.

When does universal peace prevail? Secession and group formation in rent seeking contests and policy conflicts

This paper analyzes secession and group formation in a general model of contest inspired by Esteban and Ray (1999). This model encompasses as special cases rent seeking contests and policy conflicts, where agents lobby over the choice of a policy in a one-dimensional policy space. We show that in both models the grand coalition is the efficient coalition structure and agents are always better off in the grand coalition than in a symmetric coalition structure. Individual agents (in the rent seeking contest) and extremists (in the policy conflict) only have an incentive to secede when they anticipate that their secession will not be followed by additional secessions. Incentives to secede are lower when agents cooperate inside groups. The grand coalition emerges as the unique subgame perfect equilibrium outcome of a sequential game of coalition formation in rent seeking contests.

Mentoring, educational services, and economic incentives longer-term evidence on risky behaviors from a randomized trial

This paper is the first to use a randomized trial in the US to analyze the short- and long- term impacts of an afterschool program that offered disadvantaged high-school youth: mentoring, educational services, and financial rewards to attend program activities, complete high-school and enroll in post-secondary education on youths' engagement in risky behaviors, such as substance abuse, criminal activity, and teenage childbearing. Outcomes were measured at three different points in time, when youths were in their late-teens, and when they were in their early- and their latetwenties. Overall the program was unsuccessful at reducing risky behaviors. Heterogeneity matters in that perverse effects are concentrated among certain subgroups, such as males, older youths, and youths from sites where youths received higher amount of stipends. We claim that this evidence is consistent with different models of youths' behavioral response to economic incentives. In addition, beneficial effects found in those sites in which QOP youths represented a large fraction of the entering class of 9th graders provides hope for these type of programs when operated in small communities and supports the hypothesis of peer effects.

Why do educated mothers matter? A model of parental help

The paper investigates the role of mothers in affecting childrens' performance at school. It develops a theoretical model in which household is treated as an individual, whose utility depends on the performance at school of the student and on consumption. The model focuses on the possibilities through which mother’s help may affect pupil's performance in terms of time devoted to supervision and spillover effects. Empirical evidence, using Italian PISA 2006, shows that highly educated mothers have a positive impact on students' score only when they are highly qualified in the job market.

La ciència ficció : un pont entre les ciències i les Humanidades

La hipòtesi vol contestar la pregunta següent: pot la ciència-ficció ajudar a construir un nexe d'unió afavorint una lectura ètica de la ciència i la tecnologia? Esbrinant els motius dels distanciament entre ciències i Humanidades, veient en particular com és tractada l'ètica en la literatura de ciència-ficció i cercant punts de connexió entre ambdós mons.

Hybrid coordination of reinforcement learning-based behaviors for AUV control

This paper proposes a hybrid coordination method for behavior-based control architectures. The hybrid method takes advantages of the robustness and modularity in competitive approaches as well as optimized trajectories in cooperative ones. This paper shows the feasibility of applying this hybrid method with a 3D-navigation to an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The behaviors are learnt online by means of reinforcement learning. A continuous Q-learning implemented with a feed-forward neural network is employed. Realistic simulations were carried out. The results obtained show the good performance of the hybrid method on behavior coordination as well as the convergence of the behaviors

Efficient learning of reactive robot behaviors with a Neural-Q_learning approach

The purpose of this paper is to propose a Neural-Q_learning approach designed for online learning of simple and reactive robot behaviors. In this approach, the Q_function is generalized by a multi-layer neural network allowing the use of continuous states and actions. The algorithm uses a database of the most recent learning samples to accelerate and guarantee the convergence. Each Neural-Q_learning function represents an independent, reactive and adaptive behavior which maps sensorial states to robot control actions. A group of these behaviors constitutes a reactive control scheme designed to fulfill simple missions. The paper centers on the description of the Neural-Q_learning based behaviors showing their performance with an underwater robot in a target following task. Real experiments demonstrate the convergence and stability of the learning system, pointing out its suitability for online robot learning. Advantages and limitations are discussed

Excess Entry, Ambiguity Seeking, and Competence: An Experimental Investigation

Excess entry refers to the high failure rate of new entrepreneurial ventures. Economic explanations suggest 'hit and run' entrants and risk-seeking behavior. A psychological explanation is that people (entrepreneurs) are overconfident in their abilities (Camerer & Lovallo, 1999). Characterizing entry decisions as ambiguous gambles, we alternatively suggest following Heath and Tversky (1991) that people seek ambiguity when the source of uncertainty is related to their competence. Overconfidence, as such, plays no role. This hypothesis is confirmed in an experimental study that also documents the phenomenon of reference group neglect. Finally, we emphasize the utility that people gain from engaging in activities that contribute to a sense of competence. This is an important force in economic activity that deserves more explicit attention.

Seeking theta's desperately: Estimating the distribution of consumers under increasing block rates

This paper shows that the distribution of observed consumption is not a good proxy for the distribution of heterogeneous consumers when the current tariff is an increasing block tariff. We use a two step method to recover the "true" distribution of consumers. First, we estimate the demand function induced by the current tariff. Second, using the demand system, we specify the distribution of consumers as a function of observed consumption to recover the true distribution. Finally, we design a new two-part tariff which allows us to evaluate the equity of the existence of an increasing block tariff.

Temporary help agencies and workers' occupational mobility

This paper focuses on the occupational mobility of temporary helpagency workers by studying their job-to-job upgrading chances as opposedto those who have not been hired through these intermediaries. A screeningapproach to the role of those labor brokers suggests that agency workersmay expect greater chances of upgrading from one occupation to another.Results obtained with a sample of Spanish workers show that workingthrough those intermediaries comparatively offers stronger prospects ofoccupational upgrading for workers of a medium qualification level. Thisbasic result is reinforced when the existence of self-selection into thistype of intermediated work is appropriately taken into account.

Excess entry, ambiguity seeking and competence: An experimental investigation

Excess entry refers to the high failure rate of new entrepreneurial ventures. Economic explanations suggest 'hit and run' entrants and risk-seeking behavior. A psychological explanation is that people (entrepreneurs) are overconfident in their abilities (Camerer & Lovallo, 1999). Characterizing entry decisions as ambiguous gambles, we alternatively suggest following Heath and Tversky (1991) that people seek ambiguity when the source of uncertainty is related to their competence. Overconfidence, as such, plays no role. This hypothesis is confirmed in an experimental study that also documents the phenomenon of reference group neglect. Finally, we emphasize the utility that people gain from engaging in activities that contribute to a sense of competence. This is an important force in economic activity that deserves more explicit attention.

Ambiguity seeking as a result of the status quo bias

Several factors affect attitudes toward ambiguity. What happens, however, when peopleare asked to exchange an ambiguous alternative in their possession for an unambiguousone? We present three experiments in which individuals preferred to retain the former.This status quo bias emerged both within- and between-subjects, with and withoutincentives, with different outcome distributions, and with endowments determined byboth the experimenter and the participants themselves. Findings emphasize the need toaccount for the frames of reference under which evaluations of probabilistic informationtake place as well as modifications that should be incorporated into descriptive modelsof decision making.

On moments and tail behaviors of storage processes

We study the existence of moments and the tail behaviour of the densitiesof storage processes. We give sufficient conditions for existence andnon-existence of moments using the integrability conditions ofsubmultiplicative functions with respect to Lévy measures. Then, we studythe asymptotical behavior of the tails of these processes using the concaveor convex envelope of the release rate function.