Large deviation for BSDE with subdifferential operator

In this paper we prove that the solution of a backward stochastic differential equation, which involves a subdifferential operator and associated to a family of reflecting diffusion processes, converges to the solution of a deterministic backward equation and satisfes a large deviation principle.

Fiscal foresight, forecast revisions and the effects of government spending in the open economy

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate and the trade balance in the US using a new VAR identification procedure based on spending forecast revisions. I find that the real exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance deteriorates after a government spending shock, although the effects are quantitatively small. The findings broadly match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model and differ substantially from those existing in literature. Differences are attributable to the fact that, because of fiscal foresight, the government spending is non-fundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs. Here, on the contrary, the estimated shock is fundamental.

On the depth of blowup algebras of ideals with analytic deviation one

Let I be an ideal in a local Cohen-Macaulay ring (A, m). Assume I to be generically a complete intersection of positive height. We compute the depth of the Rees algebra and the form ring of I when the analytic deviation of I equals one and its reduction number is also at most one. The formu- las we obtain coincide with the already known formulas for almost complete intersection ideals.

Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

Preface: Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)

The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, partly due to its quite unique character that results both from physiographic conditions and societal development. The region features indeed a near-closed sea surrounded by very urbanised littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate. This results in a lot of interactions and feedbacks between oceanic-atmospheric-hydrological processes that play a predominant role on climate and extreme events that frequently cause heavy dam- ages and human losses in the Mediterranean ...

The Total Deviation Index estimated by Tolerance Intervals to evaluate the concordance of measurement devices

Background In an agreement assay, it is of interest to evaluate the degree of agreement between the different methods (devices, instruments or observers) used to measure the same characteristic. We propose in this study a technical simplification for inference about the total deviation index (TDI) estimate to assess agreement between two devices of normally-distributed measurements and describe its utility to evaluate inter- and intra-rater agreement if more than one reading per subject is available for each device. Methods We propose to estimate the TDI by constructing a probability interval of the difference in paired measurements between devices, and thereafter, we derive a tolerance interval (TI) procedure as a natural way to make inferences about probability limit estimates. We also describe how the proposed method can be used to compute bounds of the coverage probability. Results The approach is illustrated in a real case example where the agreement between two instruments, a handle mercury sphygmomanometer device and an OMRON 711 automatic device, is assessed in a sample of 384 subjects where measures of systolic blood pressure were taken twice by each device. A simulation study procedure is implemented to evaluate and compare the accuracy of the approach to two already established methods, showing that the TI approximation produces accurate empirical confidence levels which are reasonably close to the nominal confidence level. Conclusions The method proposed is straightforward since the TDI estimate is derived directly from a probability interval of a normally-distributed variable in its original scale, without further transformations. Thereafter, a natural way of making inferences about this estimate is to derive the appropriate TI. Constructions of TI based on normal populations are implemented in most standard statistical packages, thus making it simpler for any practitioner to implement our proposal to assess agreement.

EEG Windowed statitical wavelet deviation for estimation of muscular artifacts

Electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings are, most of the times, corrupted by spurious artifacts, which should be rejected or cleaned by the practitioner. As human scalp EEG screening is error-prone, automatic artifact detection is an issue of capital importance, to ensure objective and reliable results. In this paper we propose a new approach for discrimination of muscular activity in the human scalp quantitative EEG (QEEG), based on the time-frequency shape analysis. The impact of the muscular activity on the EEG can be evaluated from this methodology. We present an application of this scoring as a preprocessing step for EEG signal analysis, in order to evaluate the amount of muscular activity for two set of EEG recordings for dementia patients with early stage of Alzheimer’s disease and control age-matched subjects.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Collusion in growing and shrinking markets: empirical evidence from experimental duopolies

We study collusive behaviour in experimental duopolies that compete in prices under dynamic demand conditions. In one treatment the demand grows at a constant rate. In the other treatment the demand declines at another constant rate. The rates are chosen so that the evolution of the demand in one case is just the reverse in time than the one for the other case. We use a box-design demand function so that there are no issues of finding and co-ordinating on the collusive price. Contrary to game-theoretic reasoning, our results show that collusion is significantly larger when the demand shrinks than when it grows. We conjecture that the prospect of rapidly declining profit opportunities exerts a disciplining effect on firms that facilitates collusion and discourages deviation.

Some things couples always wanted to know about stable matchings (but were afraid to ask)

It is well-known that couples that look jointly for jobs in the same centralized labor market may cause instabilities. We demonstrate that for a natural preference domain for couples, namely the domain of responsive preferences, the existence of stable matchings can easily be established. However, a small deviation from responsiveness in one couple's preference relation that models the wish of a couple to be closer together may already cause instability. This demonstrates that the nonexistence of stable matchings in couples markets is not a singular theoretical irregularity. Our nonexistence result persists even when a weaker stability notion is used that excludes myopic blocking. Moreover, we show that even if preferences are responsive there are problems that do not arise for singles markets. Even though for couples markets with responsive preferences the set of stable matchings is nonempty, the lattice structure that this set has for singles markets does not carry over. Furthermore we demonstrate that the new algorithm adopted by the National Resident Matching Program to fill positions for physicians in the United States may cycle, while in fact a stable matchings does exist, and be prone to strategic manipulation if the members of a couple pretend to be single.

Knowledge, networks of cities and growth in regional urban systems

The objective of this paper is to measure the impact of different kinds of knowledge and external economies on urban growth in an intraregional context. The main hypothesis is that knowledge leads to growth, and that this knowledge is related to the existence of agglomeration and network externalities in cities. We develop a three-tage methodology: first, we measure the amount and growth of knowledge in cities using the OCDE (2003) classification and employment data; second, we identify the spatial structure of the area of analysis (networks of cities); third, we combine the Glaeser - Henderson - De Lucio models with spatial econometric specifications in order to contrast the existence of spatially static (agglomeration) and spatially dynamic (network) external economies in an urban growth model. Results suggest that higher growth rates are associated to higher levels of technology and knowledge. The growth of the different kinds of knowledge is related to local and spatial factors (agglomeration and network externalities) and each knowledge intensity shows a particular response to these factors. These results have implications for policy design, since we can forecast and intervene on local knowledge development paths.

Estudi de l'evolució del sòl urbà a la Vall d'Àneu

Aquest treball té com a principal objectiu analitzar l’evolució del sòl urbà als pobles de la Vall d’Àneu, dins l’àmbit del Parc Natural de l’Alt Pirineu. La Vall d’Àneu, situada en el Pirineu axial català, està formda pels municipis de l’Alt Àneu, Espot, Esterri d’Àneu i La Guingueta d’Àneu, i amb un total de 24 poblacions, totes elles per sota la cota de 1500 m. A mitjans del segle passat, el conjunt de pobles de la Vall mostraven una homogeneïtat envers la seva grandaria i distribució, on l’alçada no era un factor determinant. En les darreres dècades, la Vall d’Àneu ha experimentat un creixement demogràfic i econòmic, basat en el sector serveis (estacions d’esquí, turisme rural, esports d’aventura, etc.). Aquest gir econòmic ha desencadenat un creixmenet de les poblacions, accentuat en els últims anys. Aquest no ha estat homogeni, sinó que s’ha focalitzat en determinades zones segons el període. Així, en els darrers anys, aquest creixement s’ha centrat en els pobles propers a les pistes d’esquí i segons les previsions del PTPAPiA per l’any 2026, la tendència seguirà sent la mateixa.