Preface: Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning

This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Testing extreme value copulas to estimate the quantile

Testing weather or not data belongs could been generated by a family of extreme value copulas is difficult. We generalize a test and we prove that it can be applied whatever the alternative hypothesis. We also study the effect of using different extreme value copulas in the context of risk estimation. To measure the risk we use a quantile. Our results have motivated by a bivariate sample of losses from a real database of auto insurance claims. Methods are implemented in R.

Voice Transformations for Extreme Vocal Effects

Extreme Vocal Effects (EVE) in music are so recent that few studies have been carried out about how they are physiologically produced and whether they are harmful or not for the human voice.Voice Transformations in real-time are possible nowadays thanks to new technologies and voice processing algorithms. This Master's Thesis pretends to define and classify these new singing techniques and to create a mapping between the physiological aspect of each EVE to its relative spectrumvariations.Voice Transformation Models based on these mappings are proposed and discussed for each one of these EVEs. We also discuss different transformation methods and strategies in order to obtain better results.A subjective evaluation of the results of the transformations is also presented and discussed along with further work, improvements, and working lines on this field.

Statistical analysis and modelling of weather radar beam propagation conditions in the Po Valley (Italy)

Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.

Modelling of weather radar echoes from anomalous propagation using a hybrid parabolic equation method and NWP model data

Contamination of weather radar echoes by anomalous propagation (anaprop) mechanisms remains a serious issue in quality control of radar precipitation estimates. Although significant progress has been made identifying clutter due to anaprop there is no unique method that solves the question of data reliability without removing genuine data. The work described here relates to the development of a software application that uses a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to obtain the temperature, humidity and pressure fields to calculate the three dimensional structure of the atmospheric refractive index structure, from which a physically based prediction of the incidence of clutter can be made. This technique can be used in conjunction with existing methods for clutter removal by modifying parameters of detectors or filters according to the physical evidence for anomalous propagation conditions. The parabolic equation method (PEM) is a well established technique for solving the equations for beam propagation in a non-uniformly stratified atmosphere, but although intrinsically very efficient, is not sufficiently fast to be practicable for near real-time modelling of clutter over the entire area observed by a typical weather radar. We demonstrate a fast hybrid PEM technique that is capable of providing acceptable results in conjunction with a high-resolution terrain elevation model, using a standard desktop personal computer. We discuss the performance of the method and approaches for the improvement of the model profiles in the lowest levels of the troposphere.

The extreme core allocations of the assignment game

Although assignment games are hardly ever convex, in this paper a characterization of their set or extreme points of the core is provided, which is also valid for the class of convex games. For each ordering in the player set, a payoff vector is defined where each player receives his marginal contribution to a certain reduced game played by his predecessors. We prove that the whole set of reduced marginal worth vectors, which for convex games coincide with the usual marginal worth vectors, is the set of extreme points of the core of the assignment game

Poison without antidote for the historical Socrates and french classical tragedy in El verí del teatre (The Poison of the Theatre) by Rodolf Sirera. (An extreme dose of sadism to put a stop to the excesses of theatrical fiction).

Socrates' serene attitude before his death -although this is questioned-, as described by Xenophon in his Apologia Socratis becomes for the playwright Rodolf Sirera a useful reference in an effort to reflect boldly on the limits of theatrical fiction in another clear example of the Classical Tradition, including that derived from Baroque Tragedy. However, in this case, it is judged severely to make us more conscious of the risk of turning life into a mere theatrical performance and human beings into actors and actresses in a play they did not write.

Can extreme black Holes have (long) Abelian Higgs hair?

It has been argued that a black hole horizon can support the long-range fields of a Nielsen-Olesen string and that one can think of such a vortex as black hole "hair." In this paper, we examine the properties of an Abelian Higgs vortex in the presence of a charged black hole as we allow the hole to approach extremality. Using both analytical and numerical techniques, we show that the magnetic field lines (as well as the scalar field) of the vortex are completely expelled from the black hole in the extreme limit. This was to be expected, since extreme black holes in Einstein-Maxwell theory are known to exhibit such a "Meissner effect" in general. This would seem to imply that a vortex does not want to be attached to an extreme black hole. We calculate the total energy of the vortex fields in the presence of an extreme black hole. When the hole is small relative to the size of the vortex, it is energetically favored for the hole to remain inside the vortex region, contrary to the intuition that the hole should be expelled. However, as we allow the extreme horizon radius to become very large compared to the radius of the vortex, we do find evidence of an instability. This proves that it is energetically unfavorable for a thin vortex to interact with a large extreme black hole. This would seem to dispel the notion that a black hole can support "long" Abelian Higgs hair in the extreme limit. We show that these considerations do not go through in the near-extreme limit. Finally, we discuss the implications for strings that end at black holes, as in the processes where a string snaps by nucleating black holes.

Vortices and extreme black holes: The question of flux expulsion

It has been claimed that extreme black holes exhibit a phenomenon of flux expulsion for Abelian Higgs vortices, irrespective of the relative width of the vortex to the black hole. Recent work by two of the authors showed a subtlety in the treatment of the event horizon, which cast doubt on this claim. We analyze in detail the vortexextreme black hole system, showing that, while flux expulsion can occur, it does not do so in all cases. We give analytic proofs for both expulsion and penetration of flux, in each case deriving a bound for that behavior. We also present extensive numerical work backing up, and refining, these claims, and showing in detail how a vortex can end on a black hole in all situations. We also calculate the back reaction of the vortex on the geometry, and comment on the more general vortexblack hole system.

Absence of Abelian Higgs Hair for Extreme Black Holes

It has been argued that a black hole horizon can support the long range fields of a Nielsen-Olesen string, and that one can think of such a vortex as black hole hair. We show that the fields inside the vortex are completely expelled from a charged black hole in the extreme limit (but not in the near extreme limit). This would seem to imply that a vortex cannot be attached to an extreme black hole. Furthermore, we provide evidence that it is energetically unfavorable for a thin vortex to interact with a large extreme black hole. This dispels the notion that a black hole can support long Abelian Higgs hair in the extreme limit.

Extreme times in financial markets.

We apply the theory of continuous time random walks (CTRWs) to study some aspects involving extreme events in financial time series. We focus our attention on the mean exit time (MET). We derive a general equation for this average and compare it with empirical results coming from high-frequency data of the U.S. dollar and Deutsche mark futures market. The empirical MET follows a quadratic law in the return length interval which is consistent with the CTRW formalism.

Extreme times for volatility processes

Extreme times techniques, generally applied to nonequilibrium statistical mechanical processes, are also useful for a better understanding of financial markets. We present a detailed study on the mean first-passage time for the volatility of return time series. The empirical results extracted from daily data of major indices seem to follow the same law regardless of the kind of index thus suggesting an universal pattern. The empirical mean first-passage time to a certain level L is fairly different from that of the Wiener process showing a dissimilar behavior depending on whether L is higher or lower than the average volatility. All of this indicates a more complex dynamics in which a reverting force drives volatility toward its mean value. We thus present the mean first-passage time expressions of the most common stochastic volatility models whose approach is comparable to the random diffusion description. We discuss asymptotic approximations of these models and confront them to empirical results with a good agreement with the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model.