Cycle: White under Black. Works from the imperceptible / 3. Freya Powell: I’ll smile and I’m not sad, and other past presents

The video installations of Freya Powell's first exhibition in Barcelona call for an analysis of the links between memory and the archive, between compilation, registration, and the traces of History. Powell's work establishes a fine link between the memory of those sentenced to death in the United States, the memory of the Second World War, the artist's own memory, and the different world maps produced by colonial history. This link forces us to take into account our own connection not only with the voices and words that have been archived, but also with those voices that we want to hear and register.

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

Discursos y representaciones médico-sanitarias en el cine documental colonial español de la posguerra (1939-1950)

El objetivo de este estudio es contribuir al entendimiento, desde un punto de vista histórico, del papel que juega el cine en los procesos de popularización de la ciencia, la medicina y la tecnología. El punto de partida es la consideración de la medicina y del cine como conjuntos complejos y multidimensionales de “prácticas y discursos” de carácter científico-tecnológico y, por tanto, como formas particulares de acción e interacción cotidiana entre personas, colectivos e instituciones que juegan un papel básico en los procesos de construcción y funcionamiento de las sociedades contemporáneas. Así, mediante el análisis de la representación y articulación de las prácticas y los discursos médico-sanitarios en el cine documental colonial español del primer franquismo, es decir, en el caso particular de la construcción, legitimación y consolidación de un régimen totalitario, se aportan algunas claves explicativas sobre las múltiples relaciones entre diferentes colectivos (expertos y no-expertos) en cuanto a la naturaleza y el nivel de intervención en los procesos de generación y gestión de conocimiento científico-tecnológico. Como resultado, el cine se revela como un espacio no sólo de evasión y entretenimiento, sino también de ciencia y educación, donde la capacidad de definir y solucionar problemas cotidianos de la población, y por tanto, su impacto en la construcción de la arquitectura social, ideológica, económica, política y cultural de las sociedades contemporáneas, se fundamenta en la combinación de sus aspectos como espectáculo narrativo y científico-tecnológico.

Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

Uranium reserve, nuclear fuel cycle delusion, CO2 emission from the sea, and electricity supply: reflections after the fuel meltdown of Fukushima nuclear power units

The Great Tohoku-Kanto earthquake and resulting tsunami has brought considerable attention to the issue of the construction of new power plants. We argue in this paper, nuclear power is not a sustainable solution to energy problems. First, we explore the stock of uranium-235 and the different schemes developed by the nuclear power industry to exploit this resource. Second, we show that these methods, fast breeder and MOX fuel reactors, are not feasible. Third, we show that the argument that nuclear energy can be used to reduce CO2 emissions is false: the emissions from the increased water evaporation from nuclear power generation must be accounted for. In the case of Japan, water from nuclear power plants is drained into the surrounding sea, raising the water temperature which has an adverse affect on the immediate ecosystem, as well as increasing CO2 emissions from increased water evaporation from the sea. Next, a short exercise is used to show that nuclear power is not even needed to meet consumer demand in Japan. Such an exercise should be performed for any country considering the construction of additional nuclear power plants. Lastly, the paper is concluded with a discussion of the implications of our findings.

The Quest for the Oracle Birds: Researching the Chinese Community in Colonial Mexico (1565-1700)

The Asian Diaspora in the Americas in the 16th and 17th has been neglected by scholars for a long time. This fact is baffling, not only for the great interest of this topic in of itself, but also because it could provide new knowledge of colonial Mexico, especially in terms of the interaction among the many groups that populated the colony. This early movement of people and ideas across the largest extension of water in the planet is characteristic of what has been called the ¿archaic globalization,¿ and thus research on these matters could contribute to the history of globalization.In this presentation, I seek to further elaborate on the themes outlined by Edward Slack in The Chinos in New Spain: A Corrective Lens for a Distorted Image, an article published in 2009 in the Journal of World History. Firstly, I would like to bring forth some evidence that indicates that Asian religious practices were present in Mexico in the 1600s. Furthermore, I will argue that the traces of these practices are still visible today, in the form of a popular fortune-telling tradition. Secondly, I intend to provide some information about the arrival, settlement and distribution of the Asian Diaspora. I will focus on their distribution within Mexico City. Thirdly, I will elaborate on their occupations, social status and daily life, as well as in the patterns in marriages and relations with other groups. And lastly, I will show how the guild of barbers served as an Asian immigrant reception network.

Determinants of Spanish firms' life cycle and job

This paper examines the role of human capital, individual entrepreneurial traits and the business environment on firms' life cycle and on job creation in Spain. For this purpose, we have constructed a pseudo-panel, by using the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor survey over the period 2001-2008. We have found that the creation, maturity and survival of firms were aided by the availability of bank credit and the large immigration inflows that Spain received over this period. However, of these two factors, only bank credit had a positive effect on the creation of jobs and on improving expectations of job expansion. The relatively high levels of youth unemployment experienced even before the crises of 2008 hurt the firm's chances of maturity and survival. The results also suggested that the gender gap in entrepreneurial activities had narrowed. In relative terms, women with higher levels of education were more likely to create mature firms than men. Based on the empirical findings and those of related literature, the paper offers policy recommendations to foster a sustainable entrepreneurial sector capable of contributing to the recovery of the Spanish economy.

Consumption heterogenity over the business cycle

We study consumption heterogeneity over the business cycle. Using household panel data from 1984 to 2010 in the US we find that the welfare cost of the business cycle is non-negligible, once agents heterogeneity is taken into account, and sums to about 1% of yearly consumption. This is due to the structure of comovements between the different parts of the consumption distribution, in particular the tails are highly volatile and negatively related to each other. We also find that business cycle fluctuations originating from exogenous financial shocks only hit the top end of the consumption distribution and therefore reduce consumption inequality.

Gènere i identitats en la construcció d'una comunitat colonial a Empúries (segles VI-V a.C.)

El projecte de recerca ha analitzat la complexitat ètnica, social i de gènere de l’assentament colonial d’Empúries a partir d’un exhaustiu estudi contextual dels materials ceràmics d’ús quotidià provinents de diferents sectors excavats als anys vuitanta a la Neàpolis empuritana (N-7000, N-5000 i N-1000). Aquests sectors datats els segles V i IV a.C., corresponen a un moment en el qual s’està construint una identitat colonial diferenciada en l’espai emporità. La comparació dels aixovars domèstics usats quotidianament pels habitants d’aquest tres sectors situats en punts distants de la Neàpolis mostra que estem davant d’un assentament colonial molt heterogeni, on conflueixen materialitats, tradicions tecnològiques i pràctiques quotidianes iberes, gregues i híbrides. Els estudis de materials confirmen que no va existir una segregació espacial entre poblacions d’origen grec i iber en aquest assentament i suggereixen la cohabitació de gent –tant d’homes com de dones- d’origen grec i iber a les diferents àrees estudiades d’aquest assentament portuari. En el registre material ceràmic de totes les zones estudiades s’observa un predomini dels productes ceràmics de tradició grega (colonials o àtics) en els serveis de taula, però no així en els estris utilitzats a la cuina, que són majoritàriament de tradició ibera. També els materials ceràmics relacionats amb l’emmagatzematge domèstic i amb el transport i el comerç (àmfores) són predominantment ibers. Aquest patró suggereix que els ibers que van cohabitar amb els grecs al port emporità no van assumir en tots els casos posicions subalternes, sinó que tingueren un rol rellevant en la gestió econòmica i comercial d’aquest espai portuari.

Life-Cycle Effects on Household Expenditures: A Latent-Variable Approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life- cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

Measurement with Some Theory: a New Approach to Evaluate Business Cycle Models

We propose a method to evaluate cyclical models which does not require knowledge of the DGP and the exact empirical specification of the aggregate decision rules. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks and others to evaluate the model or contrast sub-models. The approach has good size and excellent power properties, even in small samples. We show how to examine the validity of a class of models, sort out the relevance of certain frictions, evaluate the importance of an added feature, and indirectly estimate structural parameters.

Predictable Life-Cycle Shocks, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles.

Credit Constraints, Firms' Precautionary Investment, and the Business Cycle

This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of firms' precautionary investment behavior in response to the anticipation of future financing constraints. Firms increase their demand for liquid and safe investments in order to alleviate future borrowing constraints and decrease the probability of having to forego future profitable investment opportunities. This results in an increase in the share of short-term projects that produces a temporary increase in output, at the expense of lower long-run investment and future output. I show in a calibrated model that this behavior is at the source of a novel and powerful channel of shock transmission of productivity shocks that produces short-run dampening and long-run propagation. Furthermore, it can account for the observed business cycle patterns of the aggregate and firm-level composition of investment.

Lyfe-cycle effects on household expenditures: A latent-variable approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life-cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.