Incongruence between test statistics and P values in medical papers

Given an observed test statistic and its degrees of freedom, one may compute the observed P value with most statistical packages. It is unknown to what extent test statistics and P values are congruent in published medical papers. Methods:We checked the congruence of statistical results reported in all the papers of volumes 409–412 of Nature (2001) and a random sample of 63 results from volumes 322–323 of BMJ (2001). We also tested whether the frequencies of the last digit of a sample of 610 test statistics deviated from a uniform distribution (i.e., equally probable digits).Results: 11.6% (21 of 181) and 11.1% (7 of 63) of the statistical results published in Nature and BMJ respectively during 2001 were incongruent, probably mostly due to rounding, transcription, or type-setting errors. At least one such error appeared in 38% and 25% of the papers of Nature and BMJ, respectively. In 12% of the cases, the significance level might change one or more orders of magnitude. The frequencies of the last digit of statistics deviated from the uniform distribution and suggested digit preference in rounding and reporting.Conclusions: this incongruence of test statistics and P values is another example that statistical practice is generally poor, even in the most renowned scientific journals, and that quality of papers should be more controlled and valued

Comparing and validating hypothesis test procedures: Graphical and numerical tools

When the behaviour of a specific hypothesis test statistic is studied by aMonte Carlo experiment, the usual way to describe its quality is by givingthe empirical level of the test. As an alternative to this procedure, we usethe empirical distribution of the obtained \emph{p-}values and exploit itsinformation both graphically and numerically.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Random assignment of intervention points in two phase single-case designs: data-division-specific distributions

The present study explores the statistical properties of a randomization test based on the random assignment of the intervention point in a two-phase (AB) single-case design. The focus is on randomization distributions constructed with the values of the test statistic for all possible random assignments and used to obtain p-values. The shape of those distributions is investigated for each specific data division defined by the moment in which the intervention is introduced. Another aim of the study consisted in testing the detection of inexistent effects (i.e., production of false alarms) in autocorrelated data series, in which the assumption of exchangeability between observations may be untenable. In this way, it was possible to compare nominal and empirical Type I error rates in order to obtain evidence on the statistical validity of the randomization test for each individual data division. The results suggest that when either of the two phases has considerably less measurement times, Type I errors may be too probable and, hence, the decision making process to be carried out by applied researchers may be jeopardized.

Assigning and combining probabilities in single-case studies

There is currently a considerable diversity of quantitative measures available for summarizing the results in single-case studies. Given that the interpretation of some of them is difficult due to the lack of established benchmarks, the current paper proposes an approach for obtaining further numerical evidence on the importance of the results, complementing the substantive criteria, visual analysis, and primary summary measures. This additional evidence consists of obtaining the statistical significance of the outcome when referred to the corresponding sampling distribution. This sampling distribution is formed by the values of the outcomes (expressed as data nonoverlap, R-squared, etc.) in case the intervention is ineffective. The approach proposed here is intended to offer the outcome"s probability of being as extreme when there is no treatment effect without the need for some assumptions that cannot be checked with guarantees. Following this approach, researchers would compare their outcomes to reference values rather than constructing the sampling distributions themselves. The integration of single-case studies is problematic, when different metrics are used across primary studies and not all raw data are available. Via the approach for assigning p values it is possible to combine the results of similar studies regardless of the primary effect size indicator. The alternatives for combining probabilities are discussed in the context of single-case studies pointing out two potentially useful methods one based on a weighted average and the other on the binomial test.

Polygenic determinants of white matter volume derived from GWAS lack reproducibility in a replicate sample

A recent publication reported an exciting polygenic effect of schizophrenia (SCZ) risk variants, identified by a large genome-wide association study (GWAS), on total brain and white matter volumes in schizophrenic patients and, even more prominently, in healthy subjects. The aim of the present work was to replicate and then potentially extend these findings. According to the original publication, polygenic risk scores using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) information of SCZ GWAS (polygenic SCZ risk scores; PSS) were calculated in 122 healthy subjects, enrolled in a structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study. These scores were computed based on P-values and odds ratios available through the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium. In addition, polygenic white matter scores (PWM) were calculated, using the respective SNP subset in the original publication. None of the polygenic scores, either PSS or PWM, were found to be associated with total brain, white matter or gray matter volume in our replicate sample. Minor differences between the original and the present study that might have contributed to lack of reproducibility (but unlikely explain it fully), are number of subjects, ethnicity, age distribution, array technology, SNP imputation quality and MRI scanner type. In contrast to the original publication, our results do not reveal the slightest signal of association of the described sets of GWAS-identified SCZ risk variants with brain volumes in adults. Caution is indicated in interpreting studies building on polygenic risk scores without replication sample.

Assigning and combining probabilities in single-case designs: A second study

The present study builds on a previous proposal for assigning probabilities to the outcomes computed using different primary indicators in single-case studies. These probabilities are obtained comparing the outcome to previously tabulated reference values and reflect the likelihood of the results in case there was no intervention effect. The current study explores how well different metrics are translated into p values in the context of simulation data. Furthermore, two published multiple baseline data sets are used to illustrate how well the probabilities could reflect the intervention effectiveness as assessed by the original authors. Finally, the importance of which primary indicator is used in each data set to be integrated is explored; two ways of combining probabilities are used: a weighted average and a binomial test. The results indicate that the translation into p values works well for the two nonoverlap procedures, with the results for the regression-based procedure diverging due to some undesirable features of its performance. These p values, both when taken individually and when combined, were well-aligned with the effectiveness for the real-life data. The results suggest that assigning probabilities can be useful for translating the primary measure into the same metric, using these probabilities as additional evidence on the importance of behavioral change, complementing visual analysis and professional's judgments.

Metabolic origin of δ15N values in nitrogenous compounds from Brassica napus L. leaves

Nitrogen isotope composition (δ15N) in plant organic matter is currently used as a natural tracer of nitrogen acquisition efficiency. However, the δ15N value of whole leaf material does not properly reflect the way in which N is assimilated because isotope fractionations along metabolic reactions may cause substantial differences among leaf compounds. In other words, any change in metabolic composition or allocation pattern may cause undesirable variability in leaf δ15N. Here, we investigated the δ15N in different leaf fractions and individual metabolites from rapeseed (Brassica napus) leaves. We show that there were substantial differences in δ15N between nitrogenous compounds (up to 30 ) and the content in (15N enriched) nitrate had a clear influence on leaf δ15N. Using a simple steady-state model of day metabolism, we suggest that the δ15N value in major amino acids was mostly explained by isotope fractionation associated with isotope effects on enzyme-catalysed reactions in primary nitrogen metabolism. δ15N values were further influenced by light versus dark conditions and the probable occurrence of alternative biosynthetic pathways. We conclude that both biochemical pathways (that fractionate between isotopes) and nitrogen sources (used for amino acid production) should be considered when interpreting the δ15N value of leaf nitrogenous compounds

Olympic education experiences: the sponsorship in the promotion of Olympic values

This text was presented at the 16th International Seminar on Olympic Studies for Postgraduate Students that was organised by the International Olympic Academy in Ancient Olympia, from 1st to 30th July 2008. First here are reported, fundamental concepts on Olympics such as the Olympic values and the educational mandate of Pierre de Coubertin, the Olympic brand and symbols, the sponsorship and the Olympic partner programme. Then there is a chapter regarding the Top sponsors educational initiatives on Olympic values, and specially, describing the Olympic sponsors involvement in education and Top sponsors educational activities. And finally, the author analyses the sponsorship role in the promotion of Olympic Values Education, providing conclusions, comments on future and perspectives and some recommendations.

The new role of the mass media in the construction of sport and Olympic values

This paper was presented in the International Symposium on Toward the Creation of New-Sport Cultures, undertaken in Osaka, Japan, in January 28, 1996. The main purpose is to make an interpretation of the cultural values of sport and Olympism in contemporary society, considering the enormous influence that the media have on them.

Deciding where to belong: gender differences in educational trajectories and migration in a rural Spanish town

From an anthropological perspective, formal post-secondary schooling is not an abstractentity with an intrinsic value that everyone finds desirable, but rather one alternative among many that young people evaluate from their different positions in the social field. The problem discussed in this paper is the diverging life trajectories that young men and women in a concrete rural context, at the end of the 20th century, shape for themselves at the ages of 14-16, a moment of decision created by national legislation regarding mandatory education (LGE, 1970, General Education Law, and LOGSE, 1990, General Organic Law of the Education System). Despite a strong cultural norm of equal inheritance divided among all children, male and female, and despite the equal educational opportunities provided by the Spanish State, different meanings of possession and use-rights over land and the resulting culturally accepted gendered division of work converge to orient men and women differently towards post-secondary schooling. Observation of the age, gender, and civil status structure of the population led to the preliminary query: Why do men and women, in this town, behave differently with respect to migration and marriage? The main hypothesis was that women’s longer school trajectories and resulting migration and men’s anchoring in the town and their higher rates of celibacy were not drastic changes in values, in the positional-relational sense of Bourdieu (1988, 2002), but the current outcome of previously existing dissimilar relations to property that produce dissimilar mobility. Through their schooling and work choices, young men and women, at very early ages, locate themselves in, or decide to belong to, different contexts that later reveal very different possibilities of finding marriage partners. This paper is based on an ethnographic study of a small rural town (302 inhabitants in 1950; 193 in 2000) near Leon. Although this paper deals with the situation in the final decades of the 20th century, we must also consider the first half of the century, where some elements that shape this situation have their roots. Fieldwork was carried out between 1988 and 2001, in periods of differing length and intensity. The social subjects discussed here are the domestic unit and its component members. They were studied in conjunction, analyzing the life-trajectory decisions of specific persons in the framework of the domestic unit and the relations among people and property which comprise it. The tried-and-true methods of ethnographic research –participant observation, interviews, and life-histories, etc.- were employed. Archival research was also important for producing demographic data. Demographic analysis, the analysis of the composition and transformation of domestic units, and the creation of life trajectories were among the principal techniques used. The theoretical analysis was oriented by Bourdieu’s (2002) framework of the social field, habitus, and difference.

Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models