Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

Fluid flow processes at basin scale

S u b s u r face fluid flow plays a significant role in many geologic processes and is increasingly being studied in the scale of sedimentary basins and geologic time perspective. Many economic resources such as petroleum and mineral deposits are products of basin scale fluid flow operating over large periods of time. Such ancient flow systems can be studied through analysis of diagenetic alterations and fluid inclusions to constrain physical and chemical conditions of fluids and rocks during their paleohy d r og e o l ogic evolution. Basin simulation models are useful to complement the paleohy d r og e o l ogic record preserved in the rocks and to derive conceptual models on hydraulic basin evolution and generation of economic resources. Different types of fluid flow regimes may evo l ve during basin evolution. The most important with respect to flow rates and capacity for transport of solutes and thermal energy is gr avitational fluid flow driven by the topographic configuration of a basin. Such flow systems require the basin to be elevated above sea level. Consolidational fluid flow is the principal fluid migration process in basins below sea level, caused by loading of compressible rocks. Flow rates of such systems are several orders of magnitude below topogr a p hy driven flow. Howeve r, consolidation may create significant fluid ove rpressure. Episodic dewatering of ove rpressured compart m e n t s m ay cause sudden fluid release with elevated flow velocities and may cause a transient local thermal and chemical disequilibrium betwe e n fluid and rock. This paper gives an ove rv i ew on subsurface fluid flow processes at basin scale and presents examples related to the Pe n e d è s basin in the central Catalan continental margin including the offshore Barcelona half-graben and the compressive South-Pyrenean basin.

A right to a national space of communication? : on Stateless nations, their right to a space of communication of their own

Hem establert les bases metodològiques i teòriques per investigar la pregunta “Tenen les nacions sense estat el dret de controlar el seu propi espai de comunicació?”. La investigació ajusta el concepte d’espai de comunicació a la teoria política, cercant els seus límits en els drets individuals i, des de la perspectiva del liberalisme 2, aportant la justificació del seu control en quant que plataforma que incideix en la conservació i supervivència d’una cultura nacional. El primer article i fase de la tesi és l’adaptació i definició del concepte espai de comunicació. Fins ara, la recerca ha proposat diferents models d’espai de comunicació entenent si es tracta d’una visió emfatitzant la distribució i la producció de material marcat amb els símbols de la identitat nacional de la societat emissora, o bé si emfatitza la idea d’un espai de circulació de fluxos comunicatiu ajustat a un territori tradicionalment vinculat a una identitat nacional o nació sense estat. Igualment, es distingeix la dimensió d’emissió –sortir del territori al món- i la de recepció –fluxos informatius rebuts des del món al territori, concretament, al ciutadà; el paper d’intervenció de les institucions democràtiques és diferent en una dimensió o una altra i, per tant, també són diferents els drets afectats i les teories o principis que neguen o justifiquen el control de l’espai de comunicació. També s’ha indagat en les teories sobre els efectes cognitius dels mitjans de comunicació per relacionar-los amb la construcció nacional com a cohesió simbòlica i cultural. Si bé els mitjans no poden fer canviar de pensament immediatament, sí que poden conformar a llarg termini una percepció nacional general. Una comunitat és imaginada, donada la distància física dels seus components, i la comunicació social és, juntament amb l’educació, el principal factor de construcció nacional, avui en dia.

Urban design proposes for the norwegian cities

Alta is the biggest city in the country of Finnmark. The area of study, Bossekop, is situated 4km from the city centre. It has some commercial areas, offices, hotels and housing, mostly single family housing. The most important Norwegian road, E6 goes through Bossekop, there for it has a big traffic flow. The concept builds on the idea of two axis, one local leading from the local sports development area into the centre core, and one on a higher level, the E6. In Bodø, after analysing carefully the surroundings we reached the conclusion that it is posssible to conserve a lot of the green as well as offering the municipalities the chance to develop with several housing typologies. Nature should be preserved and with this connect directly the mountain to the sea, using the existing creek to make the water connection. In order to keep a big part of this land untouched, we suggest that the rest of the site can be developed quite densely in one of the areas and then continuously fading out in direction of the mountains. Finnsnes is an important communication point for the region with its good connections. In that way it is becoming a central point for commerce and leisure. The concept is based on the wish from the municipality of Lenvik to look upon the city’s connection to the surrounding sea and green areas, together with the wish to make the pedestrian access better and the car traffic lighter., and in that way improve the conditions in the city

Estimation of the viscoelastic properties of vessel walls using a computational model and Doppler ultrasound

Human arteries affected by atherosclerosis are characterized by altered wall viscoelastic properties. The possibility of noninvasively assessing arterial viscoelasticity in vivo would significantly contribute to the early diagnosis and prevention of this disease. This paper presents a noniterative technique to estimate the viscoelastic parameters of a vascular wall Zener model. The approach requires the simultaneous measurement of flow variations and wall displacements, which can be provided by suitable ultrasound Doppler instruments. Viscoelastic parameters are estimated by fitting the theoretical constitutive equations to the experimental measurements using an ARMA parameter approach. The accuracy and sensitivity of the proposed method are tested using reference data generated by numerical simulations of arterial pulsation in which the physiological conditions and the viscoelastic parameters of the model can be suitably varied. The estimated values quantitatively agree with the reference values, showing that the only parameter affected by changing the physiological conditions is viscosity, whose relative error was about 27% even when a poor signal-to-noise ratio is simulated. Finally, the feasibility of the method is illustrated through three measurements made at different flow regimes on a cylindrical vessel phantom, yielding a parameter mean estimation error of 25%.

On the complementariness of infrasound and seismic sensors for monitoring snow avalanches

The paper analyses and compares infrasonic and seismic data from snow avalanches monitored at the Vallée de la Sionne test site in Switzerland from 2009 to 2010. Using a combination of seismic and infrasound sensors, it is possible not only to detect a snow avalanche but also to distinguish between the different flow regimes and to analyse duration, average speed (for sections of the avalanche path) and avalanche size. Different sensitiveness of the seismic and infrasound sensors to the avalanche regimes is shown. Furthermore, the high amplitudes observed in the infrasound signal for one avalanche were modelled assuming that the suspension layer of the avalanche acts as a moving turbulent sound source. Our results show reproducibility for similar avalanches on the same avalanche path.

Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey

Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29 PER CENT, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90 PER CENT on Saturdays, 4.29 PER CENT on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45 PER CENT) than for women (0.64 PER CENT) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62 PER CENT, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84 PER CENT, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.

Mediterranean-climate streams and rivers: geographically separated but ecologically comparable freshwater systems

Streams and rivers in mediterranean-climate regions (med-rivers in med-regions) are ecologically unique, with flow regimes reflecting precipitation patterns. Although timing of drying and flooding is predictable, seasonal and annual intensity of these events is not. Sequential flooding and drying, coupled with anthropogenic influences make these med-rivers among the most stressed riverine habitat worldwide. Med-rivers are hotspots for biodiversity in all med-regions. Species in med-rivers require different, often opposing adaptive mechanisms to survive drought and flood conditions or recover from them. Thus, metacommunities undergo seasonal differences, reflecting cycles of river fragmentation and connectivity, which also affect ecosystem functioning. River conservation and management is challenging, and trade-offs between environmental and human uses are complex, especially under future climate change scenarios. This overview of a Special Issue on med-rivers synthesizes information presented in 21 articles covering the five med-regions worldwide: Mediterranean Basin, coastal California, central Chile, Cape region of South Africa, and southwest and southern Australia. Research programs to increase basic knowledge in less-developed med-regions should be prioritized to achieve increased abilities to better manage med-rivers.

Diffusion in stationary flow from mesoscopic nonequilibrium thermodynamics

We analyze the diffusion of a Brownian particle in a fluid under stationary flow. By using the scheme of nonequilibrium thermodynamics in phase space, we obtain the Fokker-Planck equation that is compared with others derived from the kinetic theory and projector operator techniques. This equation exhibits violation of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. By implementing the hydrodynamic regime described by the first moments of the nonequilibrium distribution, we find relaxation equations for the diffusion current and pressure tensor, allowing us to arrive at a complete description of the system in the inertial and diffusion regimes. The simplicity and generality of the method we propose makes it applicable to more complex situations, often encountered in problems of soft-condensed matter, in which not only one but more degrees of freedom are coupled to a nonequilibrium bath.

A novel approach to analysing the regimes of temporary streams in relation to their controls on the composition and structure of aquatic biota

Temporary streams are those water courses that undergo the recurrent cessation of flow or the complete drying of their channel. The structure and composition of biological communities in temporary stream reaches are strongly dependent on the temporal changes of the aquatic habitats determined by the hydrological conditions. Therefore, the structural and functional characteristics of aquatic fauna to assess the ecological quality of a temporary stream reach cannot be used without taking into account the controls imposed by the hydrological regime. This paper develops methods for analysing temporary streams' aquatic regimes, based on the definition of six aquatic states that summarize the transient sets of mesohabitats occurring on a given reach at a particular moment, depending on the hydrological conditions: Hyperrheic, Eurheic, Oligorheic, Arheic, Hyporheic and Edaphic. When the hydrological conditions lead to a change in the aquatic state, the structure and composition of the aquatic community changes according to the new set of available habitats. We used the water discharge records from gauging stations or simulations with rainfall-runoff models to infer the temporal patterns of occurrence of these states in the Aquatic States Frequency Graph we developed. The visual analysis of this graph is complemented by the development of two metrics which describe the permanence of flow and the seasonal predictability of zero flow periods. Finally, a classification of temporary streams in four aquatic regimes in terms of their influence over the development of aquatic life is updated from the existing classifications, with stream aquatic regimes defined as Permanent, Temporary-pools, Temporary-dry and Episodic. While aquatic regimes describe the long-term overall variability of the hydrological conditions of the river section and have been used for many years by hydrologists and ecologists, aquatic states describe the availability of mesohabitats in given periods that determine the presence of different biotic assemblages. This novel concept links hydrological and ecological conditions in a unique way. All these methods were implemented with data from eight temporary streams around the Mediterranean within the MIRAGE project. Their application was a precondition to assessing the ecological quality of these streams.

Material flow accounting of Spain

Material throughput is a means of measuring the so-called social metabolism, or physical dimensions of a society’s consumption, and can be taken as an indirect and approximate indicator of sustainability. Material flow accounting can be used to test the dematerialisation hypothesis, the idea that technological progress causes a decrease in total material used (strong dematerialisation) or material used per monetary unit of output (weak dematerialisation). This paper sets out the results of a material flow analysis for Spain for the period from 1980 to 2000. The analysis reveals that neither strong nor weak dematerialisation took place during the period analysed. Although the population did not increase considerably, materials mobilised by the Spanish economy (DMI) increased by 85% in absolute terms, surpassing GDP growth. In addition, Spain became more dependent on external trade in physical terms. In fact, its imports are more than twice the amount of its exports in terms of weight.

How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange rate regimes

This paper analyzes the linkages between the credibility of a target zone regime, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the width of the band where the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate. These three concepts should be related since the band width induces a trade-off between credibility and volatility. Narrower bands should give less scope for the exchange rate to fluctuate but may make agents perceive a larger probability of realignment which by itself should increase the volatility of the exchange rate. We build a model where this trade-off is made explicit. The model is used to understand the reduction in volatility experienced by most EMS countries after their target zones were widened on August 1993. As a natural extension, the model also rationalizes the existence of non-official, implicit target zones (or fear of floating), suggested by some authors.

Material flow accounting of Mexico (1970-2003)

This technical background paper describes the methods applied and data sources used in the compilation of the 1980-2003 data set for material flow accounts of the Mexican economy and presents the data set. It is organised in four parts: the first part gives an overview of the Material Flow Accounting (MFA) methodology. The second part presents the main material flows of the Mexican economy including biomass, fossil fuels, metal ores, industrial minerals and, construction minerals. The aim of this part is to explain the procedures and methods followed, the data sources used as well as providing a brief evaluation of the quality and reliability of the information used and the accounts established. Finally, some conclusions will be provided.

Material Flow Accounting in Chile, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru (1980-2000)

In this paper we compare the resource flows of Chile, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru between 1980 and 2000. In this time span, the domestic extraction of materials increased in the four countries, mainly due to the mining sector in Chile and Peru, biomass and oil in Ecuador and construction minerals in Mexico. Imports and exports increased too, due to the increasing integration in the international markets, prompted by the liberalization policies undertaken by the four countries between the late 1970s and the late 1990s. The four countries had a negative physical trade balance for most of the period analyzed, meaning that their exports exceeded their imports in terms of weight. However, the increase of imports reduced the physical deficit in Chile, Mexico and Peru. Ecuador’s physical deficit was the highest and did not decrease in the period analyzed. Also, a diversification of exports away from bulk commodities could be observed in Chile and Mexico, and to a lesser extent in Peru, whereas in Ecuador the export sector remained mainly based on oil and biomass. More research is needed to explore the environmental effects of this phenomenon. Also, the indirect flows associated to the direct physical flows deserve to be subject to further analysis.

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.