Activity patterns and foraging behaviour of Audouin's gulls at the Ebro Delta, NW Mediterranean.

Twenty Audouin´s gulls, Larus audouinii, breeding in the Ebro Delta (NW Mediterranean) were radio-tracked in 1998 to study their foraging behaviour and activity patterns. Some detrimental effects of tagging on the breeding success of the birds were detected, especially when both members of the pair were tagged. The results were actually constrained by the low number of locations due to natural breeding failure and failure in tag emission, as well as the adverse effect of tagging. However, through a combination of aircraft surveys at sea and a fixed station for automatic tracking of the presence of the birds at the colony, novel individual-based information of home ranges and activity patterns was obtained. Trawler fishing activity seemed to influence both the foraging range and habitat use: while trawlers operated, gulls overlapped their fishing grounds with vessels, probably to scavenge on discards. Very few locations were obtained during a trawling moratorium period, although they were all recorded in coastal bays and terrestrial habitats. During the trawling activity period, gulls ranged over a minimum convex polygon area of 2900 km2. Gulls were tracked up to 40 km from the colony, but some individuals were observed beyond 150 km while still breeding. Arrivals and departures from the colony were in accordance with the trawling timetable. However, most birds also showed some nocturnal foraging activity, probably linked to active fishing of clupeoids (following diel migrations) or to the exploitation of purse-seine fishing activity. Foraging trips lasted on average 15 hours: males performed significantly shorter trips than females, which spent more time outside the colony. The proportion of nocturnal time involved in the foraging trips was the same for males and females, but whilst all males initiated their trips both during the day and at night, some females only initiated their trips during the day. Hatching success was found to be related to foraging effort by males. Gulls spent on average ca. 38% of their time budget outside the nesting territory, representing the time devoted mainly to flying, foraging and other activities.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Societal metabolism of societies: the bifurcation between Spain and Ecuador

This paper presents an application of the Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal Metabolism to the recent economic history of Ecuador and Spain. Understanding the relationship between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the throughput of matter and energy over time in modern societies is crucial for understanding the sustainability predicament as it is linked to economic growth. When considering the dynamics of economic development, Spain was able to take a different path than Ecuador thanks to the different characteristics of its energy budget and other key variables. This and other changes are described using economic and biophysical variables (both extensive and intensive referring to different hierarchical levels). The representation of these parallel changes (on different levels and describable only using different variables) can be kept in coherence by adopting the frame provided by MSIASM.

Polynomial-time complexity for instances of the endomorphism problem in free groups

We say the endomorphism problem is solvable for an element W in a free group F if it can be decided effectively whether, given U in F, there is an endomorphism Φ of F sending W to U. This work analyzes an approach due to C. Edmunds and improved by C. Sims. Here we prove that the approach provides an efficient algorithm for solving the endomorphism problem when W is a two- generator word. We show that when W is a two-generator word this algorithm solves the problem in time polynomial in the length of U. This result gives a polynomial-time algorithm for solving, in free groups, two-variable equations in which all the variables occur on one side of the equality and all the constants on the other side.

Semidiscretization and long-time asymptotics of nonlinear diffusion equations

We review several results concerning the long time asymptotics of nonlinear diffusion models based on entropy and mass transport methods. Semidiscretization of these nonlinear diffusion models are proposed and their numerical properties analysed. We demonstrate the long time asymptotic results by numerical simulation and we discuss several open problems based on these numerical results. We show that for general nonlinear diffusion equations the long-time asymptotics can be characterized in terms of fixed points of certain maps which are contractions for the euclidean Wasserstein distance. In fact, we propose a new scaling for which we can prove that this family of fixed points converges to the Barenblatt solution for perturbations of homogeneous nonlinearities for values close to zero.

Intermediate asymptotics beyond homogeneity and self-similarity: long time behavior for [formula]

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Forecasting volatility using a continuous time model

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a continuous stochastic volatility model with two factors of volatility (SV2F) and compares it to those of GARCH and ARFIMA models. The empirical results show that the volatility forecasting ability of the SV2F model is better than that of the GARCH and ARFIMA models, especially when volatility seems to change pattern. We use ex-post volatility as a proxy of the realized volatility obtained from intraday data and the forecasts from the SV2F are calculated using the reprojection technique proposed by Gallant and Tauchen (1998).

Endogeneizing know-how flows through the nature of R&D investments

In this paper we carefully link knowledge flows to and from a firms innovation process with this firms investment decisions. Three types of investments are considered: investments in applied research, investments in basic research, and investments in intellectual property protection. Only when basic research is performed, can the firm effectively access incoming knowledge flows and these incoming spillovers serve to increase the efficiency of own applied research.. The firm can at the same time influence outgoing knowledge flows, improving appropriability of its innovations, by investing in protection. Our results indicate that firms with small budgets for innovation will not invest in basic research. This occurs in the short run, when the budget for know-how creation is restricted, or in the long-run, when market opportunities are low, when legal protection is not very important, or, when the pool of accessible and relevant external know-how is limited. The ratio! of basic to applied research is non-decreasing in the size of the pool of accessible external know-how, the size and opportunity of the market, and, the effectiveness of intellectual property rights protection. This indicates the existence of economies of scale in basic research due to external market related factors. Empirical evidence from a sample of innovative manufacturing firms in Belgium confirms the economies of scale in basic research as a consequence of the firms capacity to access external knowledge flows and to protect intellectual property, as well as the complementarity between legal and strategic investments.

Commuters' valuation of travel time variability in Barcelona

The value given by commuters to the variability of travel times is empirically analysed using stated preference data from Barcelona (Spain). Respondents are asked to choose between alternatives that differ in terms of cost, average travel time, variability of travel times and departure time. Different specifications of a scheduling choice model are used to measure the influence of various socioeconomic characteristics. Our results show that travel time variability.

Infinite time aggregation for the critical Patlak-Keller-Segel model in R2

We analyze the two-dimensional parabolic-elliptic Patlak-Keller-Segel model in the whole Euclidean space R2. Under the hypotheses of integrable initial data with finite second moment and entropy, we first show local in time existence for any mass of "free-energy solutions", namely weak solutions with some free energy estimates. We also prove that the solution exists as long as the entropy is controlled from above. The main result of the paper is to show the global existence of free-energy solutions with initial data as before for the critical mass 8 Π/Χ. Actually, we prove that solutions blow-up as a delta dirac at the center of mass when t→∞ keeping constant their second moment at any time. Furthermore, all moments larger than 2 blow-up as t→∞ if initially bounded.

Planificación de aplicaciones best-effort y soft real-time en NOWs

La aparición de nuevos tipos de aplicaciones, como vídeo bajo demanda, realidad virtual y videoconferencias entre otras, caracterizadas por la necesidad de cumplir sus deadlines. Este tipo de aplicaciones, han sido denominadas en la literatura aplicaciones soft-real time (SRT) periódicas. Este trabajo se centra en el problema de la planificación temporal de este nuevo tipo de aplicaciones en clusters no dedicados.

Addressing the net balances problem as a prerequisite for EU budget reform: a proposal

Conflict among member states regarding the distribution of net financial burdens has been allowed to contaminate the entire design of the EU budget with very negative consequences in terms of equity, efficiency and transparency. To get around this problem and pave the way for a substantive budget reform, we propose to decouple distributional negotiations from the rest of the budget process by linking member state net balances in a rigid manner to relative prosperity. This would be achieved through the introduction of a system of compensating horizontal transfers that would take to its logical conclusion the Commission's proposal for a generalized compensation mechanism. We discuss the impact of the proposed scheme on member states? incentives and illustrate its financial implications using revenue and expenditure projections for 2013 that are based on the current Financial Perspectives and Own Resources Decision.

Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.