The Black Box of Business Dynamics

Research in business dynamics has been advancing rapidly in the last years but the translation of the new knowledge to industrial policy design is slow. One striking aspect in the policy area is that although research and analysis do not identify the existence of an specific optimal rate of business creation and business exit, governments everywhere have adopted business start-up support programs with the implicit principle that the more the better. The purpose of this article is to contribute to understand the implications of the available research for policy design. Economic analysis has identified firm heterogeneity as being the most salient characteristic of industrial dynamics, and so a better knowledge of the different types of entrepreneur, their behavior and their specific contribution to innovation and growth would enable us to see into the ‘black box’ of business dynamics and improve the design of appropriate public policies. The empirical analysis performed here shows that not all new business have the same impact on relevant economic variables, and that self-employment is of quite a different economic nature to that of firms with employees. It is argued that public programs should not promote indiscriminate entry but rather give priority to able entrants with survival capacities. Survival of entrants is positively related to their size at birth. Innovation and investment improve the likelihood of survival of new manufacturing start-ups. Investment in R&D increases the risk of failure in new firms, although it improves the competitiveness of incumbents.

Re-opening the black box in societal metabolism: the application of MuSIASEM to water

In this paper we address the complexity of the analysis of water use in relation to the issue of sustainability. In fact, the flows of water in our planet represent a complex reality which can be studied using many different perceptions and narratives referring to different scales and dimensions of analysis. For this reason, a quantitative analysis of water use has to be based on analytical methods that are semantically open: they must be able to define what we mean with the term “water” when crossing different scales of analysis. We propose here a definition of water as a resource that deal with the many services it provides to humans and ecosystems. WE argue that water can fulfil so many of them since the element has many characteristics that allow for the resource to be labelled with different attributes, depending on the end use –such as drinkable. Since the services for humans and the functions for ecosystems associated with water flows are defined on different scales but still interconnected it is necessary to organize our assessment of water use across different hierarchical levels. In order to do so we define how to approach the study of water use in the Societal Metabolism, by proposing the Water Metabolism, tganized in three levels: societal level, ecosystem level and global level. The possible end uses we distinguish for the society are: personal/physiological use, household use, economic use. Organizing the study of “water use” across all these levels increases the usefulness of the quantitative analysis and the possibilities of finding relevant and comparable results. To achieve this result, we adapted a method developed to deal with multi-level, multi-scale analysis - the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach - to the analysis of water metabolism. In this paper, we discuss the peculiar analytical identity that “water” shows within multi-scale metabolic studies: water represents a flow-element when considering the metabolism of social systems (at a small scale, when describing the water metabolism inside the society) and a fund-element when considering the metabolism o ecosystems (at a larger scale when describing the water metabolism outside the society). The theoretical analysis is illustrated using two case which characterize the metabolic patterns regarding water use of a productive system in Catalonia and a water management policy in Andarax River Basin in Andalusia.

An Analysis of black-box optimization problems in reinsurance: evolutionary-based approaches

Black-box optimization problems (BBOP) are de ned as those optimization problems in which the objective function does not have an algebraic expression, but it is the output of a system (usually a computer program). This paper is focussed on BBOPs that arise in the eld of insurance, and more speci cally in reinsurance problems. In this area, the complexity of the models and assumptions considered to de ne the reinsurance rules and conditions produces hard black-box optimization problems, that must be solved in order to obtain the optimal output of the reinsurance. The application of traditional optimization approaches is not possible in BBOP, so new computational paradigms must be applied to solve these problems. In this paper we show the performance of two evolutionary-based techniques (Evolutionary Programming and Particle Swarm Optimization). We provide an analysis in three BBOP in reinsurance, where the evolutionary-based approaches exhibit an excellent behaviour, nding the optimal solution within a fraction of the computational cost used by inspection or enumeration methods.

Mixing compositions and other scales

Theory of compositional data analysis is often focused on the composition only. However in practical applications we often treat a composition together with covariableswith some other scale. This contribution systematically gathers and develop statistical tools for this situation. For instance, for the graphical display of the dependenceof a composition with a categorical variable, a colored set of ternary diagrams mightbe a good idea for a first look at the data, but it will fast hide important aspects ifthe composition has many parts, or it takes extreme values. On the other hand colored scatterplots of ilr components could not be very instructive for the analyst, if theconventional, black-box ilr is used.Thinking on terms of the Euclidean structure of the simplex, we suggest to set upappropriate projections, which on one side show the compositional geometry and on theother side are still comprehensible by a non-expert analyst, readable for all locations andscales of the data. This is e.g. done by defining special balance displays with carefully-selected axes. Following this idea, we need to systematically ask how to display, explore,describe, and test the relation to complementary or explanatory data of categorical, real,ratio or again compositional scales.This contribution shows that it is sufficient to use some basic concepts and very fewadvanced tools from multivariate statistics (principal covariances, multivariate linearmodels, trellis or parallel plots, etc.) to build appropriate procedures for all these combinations of scales. This has some fundamental implications in their software implementation, and how might they be taught to analysts not already experts in multivariateanalysis

Compact matrix expressions for generalized Wald tests of equality of moment vectors

Asymptotic chi-squared test statistics for testing the equality ofmoment vectors are developed. The test statistics proposed aregeneralizedWald test statistics that specialize for different settings by inserting andappropriate asymptotic variance matrix of sample moments. Scaled teststatisticsare also considered for dealing with situations of non-iid sampling. Thespecializationwill be carried out for testing the equality of multinomial populations, andtheequality of variance and correlation matrices for both normal andnon-normaldata. When testing the equality of correlation matrices, a scaled versionofthe normal theory chi-squared statistic is proven to be an asymptoticallyexactchi-squared statistic in the case of elliptical data.

Exact tests for correlation and for the slope in simple linear regressions without making assumptions

We present an exact test for whether two random variables that have known bounds on their support are negatively correlated. The alternative hypothesis is that they are not negatively correlated. No assumptions are made on the underlying distributions. We show by example that the Spearman rank correlation test as the competing exact test of correlation in nonparametric settings rests on an additional assumption on the data generating process without which it is not valid as a test for correlation.We then show how to test for the significance of the slope in a linear regression analysis that invovles a single independent variable and where outcomes of the dependent variable belong to a known bounded set.

Valoració de parells paraula-imatge per a un estudi psicològic

En aquest experiment es vol analitzar com associen les persones una sèrie d'imatges amb conceptes relacionats. Per aquest motiu, es crea una aplicació per a mòbils que permeti als participants en l'experiment realitzar una sèrie de tests còmodament en qualsevol moment i que transmeti les dades als responsables de l'experiment.

The black-white test score gap widens with age?

We re-examine the theoretical concept of a production function for cognitive achievement, and argue that an indirect production function that depends upon the variables that constrain parents' choices is both moretractable from an econometric point of view, and more interesting from an economic point of view than is a direct production function that depends upon a detailed list of direct inputs such as number of books in the household. We estimate flexible econometric models of indirect production functions for two achievement measures from the Woodcock-Johnson Revised battery, using data from two waves of the Child Development Supplement to the PSID. Elasticities of achievement measures with respect to family income and parents' educational levels are positive and significant. Gaps between scores of black and white children narrow or remain constant as children grow older, a result that differs from previous findings in the literature. The elasticities of achievement scores with respect to family income are substantially higher for children of black families, and there are some notable difference in elasticities with respect to parents' educational levels across blacks and whites.

Testing Cayley graph densities

We present a computer-assisted analysis of combinatorial properties of the Cayley graphs of certain finitely generated groups: Given a group with a finite set of generators, we study the density of the corresponding Cayley graph, that is, the least upper bound for the average vertex degree (= number of adjacent edges) of any finite subgraph. It is known that an m-generated group is amenable if and only if the density of the corresponding Cayley graph equals to 2m. We test amenable and non-amenable groups, and also groups for which amenability is unknown. In the latter class we focus on Richard Thompson’s group F.

Markup Test Reader: eina de creació i lectura de formularis de test

El projecte exposat en aquestes pàgines és un document d'estudi, anàlisi, disseny, programació i procés de proves en la confecció d'una aplicació de creació i lectura de formularis de test. Aquesta aplicació parteix de les possibilitats de millora de les prestacions, usabilitat i escalabilitat que poden oferir les tècniques de visió en computador en aquest camp. El projecte s'ha basat en un exemple en concret per tal d'oferir una eina vàlida per a la automatització de les tasques que en una empresa de recursos humans es poden donar a l'hora de gestionar la informació dels test psicotècnics que necessiten gestionar. El projecte parteix d'unes premisses bàsiques tals com: l'ús de tècniques en visió per computador, la modularitat, el compliment d'estàndards, la facilitat d'ús i la facilitat en la gestió de canvis.

Development of an optimized methodology for tensile testing of carbon steels in hydrogen environment

The study was performed at OCAS, the Steel Research Centre of ArcelorMittal for the Industry market. The major aim of this research was to obtain an optimized tensile testing methodology with in-situ H-charging to reveal the hydrogen embrittlement in various high strength steels. The second aim of this study has been the mechanical characterization of the hydrogen effect on hight strength carbon steels with varying microstructure, i.e. ferrite-martensite and ferrite-bainite grades. The optimal parameters for H-charging - which influence the tensile test results (sample geometry type of electrolyte, charging methods effect of steel type, etc.) - were defined and applied to Slow Strain Rate testing, Incremental Step Loading and Constant Load Testing. To better understand the initiation and propagation of cracks during tensile testing with in-situ H-charging, and to make the correlation with crystallographic orientation, some materials have been analyzed in the SEM in combination with the EBSD technique. The introduction of a notch on the tensile samples permits to reach a significantly improved reproducibility of the results. Comparing the various steel grades reveals that Dual Phase (ferrite-martensite) steels are more sensitive to hydrogen induced cracking than the FB (ferritic-bainitic) ones. This higher sensitivity to hydrogen was found back in the reduced failure times, increased creep rates and enhanced crack initiation (SEM) for the Dual Phase steels in comparison with the FB steels.

Testing, not modelling, the impact of cohesion support: a theoretical framework and some preliminary results for the Spanish regions

This paper develops a simple model that can be used to estimate the effectiveness of Cohesion expenditure relative to similar but unsubsidized projects, thereby making it possible to explicitly test an important assumption that is often implicit in estimates of the impact of Cohesion policies. Some preliminary results are reported for the case of infrastructure investment in the Spanish regions.

Testing for sufficient information in structural VARs

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which a set of variables is informationally sufficient, i.e. it contains enough information to estimate the structural shocks with a VAR model. Based on such conditions, we suggest a procedure to test for informational sufficiency. Moreover, we show how to amend the VAR if informational sufficiency is rejected. We apply our procedure to a VAR including TFP, unemployment and per-capita hours worked. We find that the three variables are not informationally sufficient. When adding missing information, the effects of technology shocks change dramatically.

Automatización de testing

El objetivo del proyecto es el desarrollo de una herramienta de trabajo para un departamento de Calidad. A través de ella, se deben poder ejecutar unos test automatizados sobre unas funcionalidades que tiene la aplicación Logic Class: el Cálculo de Nómina y Seguros Sociales.

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given